New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Saints vs. Rams Odds
| Saints Odds | +4 |
| Rams Odds | -4 |
| Over/Under | 45 |
| Date | Thu, Dec. 21 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 16 of the NFL season will begin with a matchup featuring Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints against Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. Entering play, both teams are 7-7, meaning that this is an early playoff game in many respects. The winner will control their own destiny to make the postseason, with the loser facing an uphill battle heading into the final two weeks of the schedule.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Rams as 4.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 45.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New Orleans Saints
What to expect from Derek Carr, Saints offense
Starting right tackle Ryan Ramczyk has been ruled out for tonight’s action, which is a major loss for this unit. According to PFF, Ramczyk ranks 24th of 81 tackles in run block grade this year and is 30th of 81 player at his position in pass protection. In the only other game Ramczyk missed this year, New Orleans averaged only 3.6 yards per carry against the Jaguars in Week 7.
Since their bye week, New Orleans ranks 18th in offensive EPA/play and 11th in offensive success rate. This group has scored at least 24 points in three consecutive games, but it is worth noting that each of those three contests were against bottom-tier defenses. The Saints are far from an offensive juggernaut, especially without Ramczyk on the field and with Chris Olave playing at less than 100 percent health.
Saints defense looking to weather injury bug
Heading into Week 15, the Saints have been hit by the injury bug more than almost any defense in the NFL. On Thursday, this unit will be without safety Marcus Maye, defensive tackle Malcolm Roach, and cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
Roach and Lattimore are the two biggest blows for this group, with Lattimore being the team’s top coverage corner and Roach being one of the team’s best run defenders. According to PFF, Lattimore ranks 42nd out of 118 qualified cornerbacks this season in coverage grade. Roach ranks 12th out of 134 players at his position as a run defender.
New Orleans’ defense is currently missing a lot of talent that made them successful earlier in the year, which could be problematic against a talented Los Angeles offense.
Los Angeles Rams
Rams offense firing on all cylinders
Since running back Kyren Williams returned to the field in Week 12, the Rams’ offense has been among the best in the league. During that four-game stretch, Los Angeles’ offense ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 4th in success rate overall. They rank 6th in success rate through the air and 6th in success rate on the ground, broken into separate evaluations.
Perhaps most impressive is the fact that the Rams have scored at least 28 points in each of their last four games despite the fact that they have had to contend with two formidable defenses – the Browns and Ravens.
Matthew Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career, ranking 2nd among qualified signal callers in EPA/play and 5th in success rate since Week 12. Expect him and the Rams to continue firing on all cylinders on Thursday night.
Los Angeles vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball
If there is one relative weakness for this team heading into the final few weeks of the regular season, it is their inability to consistently get stops in addition to their lack of emphasis on special teams.
In their last four games, the Rams have been mediocre defensively, ranking 15th in EPA/play and 16th in success rate. They have been neither good nor bad against either the run or the pass. However, Los Angeles ranks 32nd in special teams DVOA this season, and they are nearly twice as bad in this area of the game as New England, which ranks 31st.
Saints vs. Rams – Picks & Predictions
Though both of these teams have the same record through their first 14 games, there is little doubt as to which team is superior in this Week 16 matchup. New Orleans is missing three defensive starters and a starting offensive lineman this week, making it difficult to see them competing at a high level in this spot. The Rams are healthier and have a significant coaching advantage, with their main point of vulnerability being their 32nd-ranked special teams. If Los Angeles can avoid negative plays on kickoffs and punts this evening, they should be able to win this game comfortably.
PICK: Rams -4 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
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