Rams vs. 49ers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Rams vs. 49ers Odds
| Rams Odds | +1.5 |
| 49ers Odds | -1.5 |
| Over/Under | 42 |
| Date | Moday, Oct. 3 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 4 of the NFL regular season will conclude with a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. The Rams lost by three scores in their season opener, but rebounded for back-to-back victories in Week 2 and Week 3, respectively. The 49ers have alternated losses and wins through three contests, and will be looking to get back to the .500 mark on Monday Night Football. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair, pricing San Francisco as a 1.5-point home favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams won the Super Bowl last season, which leads many bettors to immediately respect Los Angeles as one of the premier teams in the NFL once again this fall. However, the offseason losses on both sides of the ball have been acutely felt by this group during the first month of the new campaign. Perhaps most notably, the offensive line is a shell of its former-self, having lost Andrew Whitworth to retirement. It certainly did not help that Odell Beckham Jr. tore his ACL in February, which kept him from possibly returning to the roster. Through three games, Los Angeles has allowed nine sacks and ranks 29th in football in yards-per-carry on the ground. Matthew Stafford has been underwhelming under center, with a 4-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The net result is an offense that ranks 21st in EPA/play so far this year.
Defensively, the Rams have proven themselves to have major vulnerabilities. Though the defensive front remains elite against the run, the secondary has been worse than league average – allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.6 percent of their passes for 6.6 yards per attempt. Jalen Ramsey has been mostly excellent again in 2022, but Derion Kendrick and Taylor Rapp have been borderline liabilities to begin the season. The reputation of this group is far more intimidating than the true production at the moment.
San Francisco 49ers
Trey Lance was handed the keys to the offense during the offseason, but a season-ending ankle injury forced Jimmy Garoppolo back into the starting role. Though Garoppolo had the 49ers within one drive of going to the Super Bowl last year, there are undeniable limitations to his game – which we have seen each of the last two weeks. Last Sunday, Garoppolo had only 211 passing yards, including a costly interception and an unforced safety. Even more alarming, San Francisco will be without All-Pro left tackle on Monday evening, which will force Colton McKivitz into a dangerous situation against a formidable Los Angeles pass rush. McKivitz is a former 5th round draft pick, who has failed to impress in limited action since entering the league in 2020. Williams’ absence could force San Francisco to rely more on the quick passing game tonight than bettors are typically accustomed to seeing.
If there is any positive news for this organization, it is on the defensive side of the ball. The 49ers have allowed only 37 points through three games so far in 2022, and have been thoroughly dominant at all levels of the defense. Nick Bosa once again looks like one of the best edge rushers in the entire NFL. Emmanuel Moseley, Charvarius Ward, Talanoa Hufanga, and Tashaun Gipson Sr. form, arguably, the most talented secondary unit in all of football. Entering play on Monday, San Francisco leads the league in defensive EPA/play and success rate. Expect them to make life difficult on the Rams in this matchup.
Rams vs. 49ers Picks & Predictions
The stout run defense for the Rams is likely to force the 49ers into more passing action than we typically see from a Kyle Shananan offensive attack. More passing should lead to more chunk plays and more stoppage of the clock. Los Angeles has been extremely pass-heavy to begin the year, which is likely to continue tonight against a San Francisco defense that should easily push around a porous Rams offensive line. It is not the intuitive pick, but the over should have a good opportunity to cash in this spot.
PICK: Over 42 (-110, DraftKings)
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