Saturday EPL Game By Game Breakdown: Week 11
Good Evening Grinders! We’re back for another weekend of EPL games here to prepare you for Saturday’s slate. Note the Chelsea game is not in the DK offerings and the Manchester City game is a late start so be weary of rostering any questionable players from that game as your options for a late swap will be limited.
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
Manchester United is playing host to Crystal Palace in Old Trafford in our first game to analyze this week and it couldn’t have come at a better time for Van Gaal’s men. Manchester United haven’t won in three weeks and have only gotten two points in their last three games. They are one of the biggest favorites on the day, and will look to improve on their abysmal record so far in the competition that sees them in 10th place in the league table
Goalkeepers
David De Gea He won’t see too many shots on target and he won’t be asked to make many saves. However, he’s facing a team that hasn’t had much offensive success this season so far. Manchester United should win this game, however, it won’t be an easy one. They are facing several injuries in the back line and will have a makeshift team when they face Crystal Palace today. I don’t trust this team to hold a clean sheet and while I expect them to win (as do the odds makers) I am really not going to want to roster De Gea in any of my teams this weekend.
Clean Sheet Index = 4
Julian Speroni You can roster him on the principle that with Manchester United missing several key players on defense as well as Falcao being out because of injury then Speroni makes a decent play as he will get a bunch of saves that will propel his score upwards. Do I think it’s a good idea to pursue that strategy? Not really, no. You would be a very brave man to go for it, but for a price of $3,200 you can probably afford an adventure. Right?
Clean Sheet Index = 3
Key players in this game
United will be starting several midfield players in the full back position, and while I suspect their defense to struggle, I would be surprised if they fail to score in this game. However, the biggest name player to watch out for in this game is Angel Di Maria, he’s priced at a premium, and he’s got a high floor and a high ceiling which makes him a very safe play.
Wayne Rooney is also back in play for the Red Devils, However, he’s priced very high as well as the second highest forward in the game tomorrow. Alternatively, I’d consider Robin Van Persie, he’s the 5th highest forward in terms of price, and his floor is very low, as he will need a goal or two to make up for the expensive price. He is capable of it, but I would look elsewhere.
Marouane Fellaini is a viable option to start in the midfield, he’s cheap at $6,900 and would help you bring a balanced squad to the table. He’s also potentially going to assist on the attack, it all depends on what formation that Manchester United go with, but he can find himself venturing up front plenty of times. He also has the ability to score from outside the 18-yard box, and while that carries no special bonus on DK, it is rather cool.
As for Crystal Palace, I am a fan of the Jason Puncheon and/or Yannick Bolasie for their abilities to put in some crosses, combined they have delivered over 55% of Crystal Palace’s crosses this season so far. You can pair them in a GPP along with Fraizer Campbell to get the assist and goal combination. All three are moderately priced and have decent upside.
West Ham vs Aston Villa
Aston Villa is not a team that has scored a lot of goals so far this season. They have 5 goals on the season so far and have a conversion rate of 5%. Moreover, they are on the road and facing a team that has so far scored 19 goals on the season with a conversion rate of 13.8% so far. West Ham are currently fifth in the league table and will be looking to take away all three points from this match.
Goalkeepers
Adrian The Brazilian Is another heavy favorite today, and I actually like his chances to get the clean sheet and the win bonus. West Ham have had a run of several weeks without a clean sheet, and will look to right the ship right now with this matchup being an ideal opportunity. I will have plenty of Adrian in my teams as his price is set at $4,400 and that should allow you to build a decent team around him.
Clean Sheet Index = 8
Brad Guzan After starting off with 10 points in their first four games, Aston Villa have managed to drop six contests in a row. Guzan has been a decent keeper in that stretch as he’s made several saves when called upon. Unfortunately however, he’s also allowed multiple goals in each of his last six games. Guzan is not really rosterable at this time and I would steer clear of him in all formats.
Clean Sheet Index = 2
Key players in this game
The focus here will be on West Ham as they are the better offensive team and will have the most opportunities to score and go ahead in this game. The key contributor to that offense will be Diafra Sakho priced at $7,300 is the best value at forward this week. He’s coming off just receiving the EPL African player of the Month, and he’s been nominated for African player of the year. This should be a big motivational boost for the Senegalese national as he is coming back from injury and will look to score a goal or two today. The other forward in this matchup is Enner Valencia who is also a great play, but for the price, I’d rather go with Sakho.
In midfield, Stewart Downing is expected to provide plenty of crosses and will have plenty of opportunities for assists. He has created 28 chances so far this season leading to 4 assists, I Expect him to add to that total today.
On defense, the combination of Aaron Cresswell and Carl Jenkinson provide excellent stacks along with the goalkeeper. Jenkinson is actually priced at a minimum price of $2,000 and will be a great option to save some salary.
As I mentioned earlier, nothing on Villa excites me, and I will be avoiding them in all formats.
Burnley vs Hull City
This is a matchup between minnows who are both sitting in the bottom half of the table. Burnley are not very good at scoring goals and Hull aren’t very good at keeping goals out. Something has to give in this matchup as the game features bad defenses and bad offenses. I suspect this will be a 1-0 match with little fanfare. Because of that, defenders might prove valuable in this matchup as they are relatively cheap.
Goalkeepers
Tom Heaton he’s playing for the home team and should make somewhere between 2-4 saves this match and maybe concede a goal as I expect the visitors to come away victors here today. At his price of $4,200 he shouldn’t be too highly owned given the low upside. However, if he does come away with a clean sheet, or better yet, the win. He can more than make up for his price.
Clean Sheet Index = 5
Eldin Jakupovic Playing for the visiting team and making temporary starts for Hull, Jakupovic has actually held his own and only conceded 2 goals in three matches. This is especially impressive given the matchups he had against Arsenal and Southampton who have been two of the hottest teams in the premier league. Jakupovic is a good play for this weekend and he is in good shape to get the win and has a decent chance to get the clean sheet as well
Clean Sheet Index = 6
Other players I like
The defense in this game will be highly valuable, none moreso than Kieran Trippier who is priced at a relatively high $4,700, however, his performances recently should be enough to convince you to trust him in your games. He is capable of providing crosses and creating chances. Moreover, he has no assists so far this season and he might be do after providing 10 chances so far this season. On the other side of the field, Stephen Ward is another option, however, his floor is very low if the team does not manage to hold on for the CS or the 1GA bonuses.
On the other side of the ball, Andrew Robertson plays in the midfield in the 3-5-2 formation but is listed as a defender on draftkings. His price is very high at $5,200 but he can be very useful if Hull manages to hold on for the clean sheet as he does actually provide offense to his team similar to Trippier.
Elsewhere, every other player is considered a GPP play, my favorites from this game would have to be the two lone forwards Lukas Jutkiewucz for Burnley and Abel Hernandez for Hull. Also worth looking at at Ahmed El Mohamady, Hatem Ben Arfa and Danny Ings with all of them having the potential to score or assist on goals.
Southampton vs Leicester City
Southampton should be dominant in this matchup with a team that right now appears destined to relegation at the end of the season. Southampton does provide some excellent plays in this game, but they are all expensive and will be tough to roster most of them in any format, but if you can fit them in, will be well worth the price.
Goalkeepers
Fraser Forster The Southampton keeper is priced at a premium at $5,500 and he will be worth the money as he’s coming in as one of the hottest keepers in the league right now and with a very favorable matchup. Leicester only have 11 goals on the year and have only taken 101 shots on the year with only 34 of those on target and with a conversion rate of 10.9%. I don’t believe that the visitors will have a chance to get past Forster tomorrow and Southampton should be favorite to keep the clean sheet.
Clean Sheet Index = 8
Kasper Schmeichel At $3,400 Schmeichel could make a decent GPP play as he will be facing a heavy barrage of shots on the road from the Southampton attack. He could compete well enough to produce a few saves and if Leicester come away with a draw or even a surprise victory, then Schmeichel would be an ultra-contrarian play that could help your team rise to the top of some of the GPPs. That however will be a very brave play and I wouldn’t trust that approach in my cash games.
Clean Sheet Index = 2
Other players I like
The Southampton roster is full of players that are in great matchups, none of which more reliable than Dusan Tadic. However, at $10,900, he’s one of the priciest options at midfield today, but he’s also more reliable. You can choose to field a team surrounding him and you won’t regret it. This season he has a floor of double figure performances at home as he’s eclipsed that mark in every game at home for Southampton. He plays an attacking style in a 4-3-3 formation and can be found involved in most of the attacks that Southampton will orchestrate as they look for a large margin of victory.
Ryan Bertrand and Nathanial Clyne are two options on defense that you can employ with a cheaper goalkeeper in order to get some exposure to Southampton’s expected victory without rostering an expensive goalkeeper. They are expensive as well at $5,500 and $4,800 respectively, however they can also provide auxiliary stats as they each provide crosses as well as venture into the final third of the opposition and thus are in position to provide key passes and create chances.
Also worth taking a look at is Graziano Pelle and Sadio Mane One or both may start, if Pelle starts alone, he becomes one of the favorite strikers on the day, if they start together in a 4-3-3 formation then I like Mane for the discounted price.
On the other side of the ball, Riyadh Mahrez and Leonardo Ulloa are both worth a look in GPPs as they can provide some attack and pressure on the Southampton defense. However, I wouldn’t be too optimistic as their floor is very low without any goals scored. And if Leicester choose to park the bus then these two will get very few opportunities.
QPR vs Manchester City
The late game of this Saturday slate finds us with Manchester City visiting QPR. City come in with a sour taste in their mouth after losing in the Champions League again midweek and this will be a decent chance for them to fix things up on the road to a weak QPR team. City will look to stay on track in the league table after falling to third place, and QPR may end up feeling the wrath of a disgruntled power house on their home turf.
Goalkeepers
Joe Hart Despite having a less than stellar performance last time out in midweek, Hart’s price has gone up from $4,900 to $5,400 this week making him very tough to play in any cash team especially with Foster also in play at very similar price. Hart however is facing the 19th ranked team in the premier league and does have the odds in his favor. I don’t however believe that the Manchester City back line is strong enough to overcome a mental lapse that would cause them to concede a rather erroneous goal late in the game or when the team least expects it. For that, I won’t put much stock in the clean sheet, however, it is possible obviously.
Clean Sheet Index = 8
Robert Green despite his low price of $3,000, Green can be safely avoided in all formats as I believe that he will concede some goals. So far this season he has only managed one clean sheet and that was against Sunderland who are not near as potent offensively as Manchester City.
Clean Sheet Index = 2
Other players I like
City is missing one of its wing defenders Koralov thus will be starting both Gael Clichy and Pablo Zabaleta who are both priced $3,800 and $4,700 respectively. Zabaleta is the higher floor player in this game as he has created more chances for City throughout the season. Neither of them really provide much in way of crosses and their floors are very low. Save for a goal and/or clean sheet bonus, there will be little use of them fantasy wise in this game.
Elsewhere the midfield combo of Yaya Toure and James Milner come into play. Both have some benefits going for them, Toure is hot after scoring a goal in the Champions League match midweek, and tho he did get a red card, that won’t affect his availability for this game as it is a premier league game.
Milner is another player who has been getting the opportunities to produce but hasn’t come through yet. On the season James Milner has 23 chances created with only 2 assists credited to his name. He provides 22% of the teams’ crosses and will take a few shots every week. His price is low enough to allow you to roster other top end players, but not too low to make him too highly owned.
At forward, Sergio Aguero is the most expensive play on the board, and while he’s been a great offensive player, for DFS purposes he’s going to have to score multiple to make up for his salary. That risk alone makes him borderline unplayable in a cash game.
His teammate Edin Dzeko however, is a good play if he gets the start, but there is a risk here as this is the late game and there is no guarantee if Dzeko comes off the bench or starts for the club. If he does not start then pivot to Jotevic as he is cheaper than Dzeko and would likely be in position to score in this game as well.
On the other side of the ball, QPR will be playing conservative with Charlie Austin playing the lone forward in a 4-5-1 formation. He’s proven that he can score against anyone, and at his price of $6,500 could be worth a look for a goal if he can sneak past a leaky Manchester City defense.
That is it, good luck with your games and enjoy the Saturday Slate! As always, follow me on twitter @DFS_hambazaza and keep a look out for starting lineups as they come in right before kickoff.