Super Bowl 60 Betting Preview & Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2026-02-03 13:16:58

Patriots vs. Seahawks Odds

Following three electric weeks of NFL playoff football, the stage is set for Super Bowl LX, with the New England Patriots matched up against the Seattle Seahawks. Kickoff is set for 6:30 PM ET on NBC and Peacock from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

Ahead of the action this weekend, the NFL betting odds have the Seahawks as 4.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 45.5 points. We’ll take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks. Also, be sure to check out Kalshi, where you can trade on the Super Bowl, politics, and pop culture. Kalshi promo code GRINDERS will get you a $10 bonus.

This marks the first time in 7 years that the Patriots have made it to the league’s biggest stage and the first time in the post-Tom-Brady era.

Seattle is back in the Super Bowl for the first time since losing to New England on the infamous Malcolm Butler interception in the closing seconds of Super Bowl XLIX.

New England Patriots Preview

Can Drake Maye snap out of playoff slump?

During the regular season, Maye was the only starting quarterback to post a positive EPA/play in each of his team’s games. That streak was broken in the Divisional Round against the Texans when Maye took 5 sacks, fumbled 4 times, and threw an interception. He struggled again in the AFC Championship game against Denver, completing only 10 passes for 86 yards. He was the only starting quarterback in the Conference Championship round to finish with a negative EPA/play.

The important question, however, is whether or not Maye is capable of regaining some momentum heading into the team’s biggest game of the season.

Maye was mostly good against all types of defenses this season en route to being named an MVP finalist. Still, it’s difficult to completely gloss over his coverage splits.

Man Coverage: 19 touchdowns, 1 interception, 9.0 yards/attempt
Zone Coverage: 12 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 8.9 yards/attempt

Turnovers can often be noisy, but the underlying metrics support the idea that Maye has struggled more with zone coverages. His turnover-worthy throw rate jumped from 1.9% against man coverage to 3.3% against zone – ranking 24th among 38 qualified quarterbacks.

This is particularly notable ahead of a matchup against Seattle’s defense, which deployed a 76.3% zone rate in the Divisional Round against the 49ers. Overall, the Seahawks ranked 8th in zone coverage rate during the regular season, and even a lot of their “man coverage” is more accurately a combo coverage, where they will play man on one side of the field and zone on the other side.

Teams have increasingly played higher rates of zone defense against the Patriots as the season has progressed, which has slowed them down in tougher matchups. We could see more of the same on Sunday.

Milton Williams leading rejuvenated New England defense

New England’s defense has played at an extremely high level in the postseason. In the AFC Championship game, they had a 37.8% pressure rate. They also led all playoff teams with a 40.4% pressure rate in the Divisional Round and a 43.2% pressure rate in their Wild Card matchup against the Chargers.

Of course, it helped the Patriots defense that the Chargers and Texans were dealing with significant injuries on their offense line. They were also able to get more pressure on backup QB Jarrett Stidham than they likely would have generated against Bo Nix.

All of that being said, New England’s defense has still posted the 2nd-best EPA/play of the postseason and held their opponents to a meager 35.2% offensive success rate in that span. They have been particularly good defending the run with Milton Williams back healthy and making an impact.

If the Patriots can continue making it difficult for their opponent to run the ball on early downs, it could go a long way towards helping them keep this game competitive. The Seahawks had the 2nd-highest run% in the NFL this season but ranked only 16th in 3rd-down conversion%. Those 3rd-down numbers regressed to the bottom tier of the league when facing 3rd and long.

The path to being competitive on Sunday appears simple – stop Seattle’s ground attack on 1st and 2nd down, then force Sam Darnold to win through the air in obvious passing situations.

Seattle Seahawks Preview

What to expect from Sam Darnold, Seattle offense

The Seahawks ranked 3rd in the NFL in points per game during the regular season but only 8th in yards per game, 12th in 1st downs per game, and 14th in EPA/play. A significant portion of their overall success putting points on the board was their special teams – ranking 3rd in yards per punt return and 3rd in yards per kickoff return. They ranked 2nd overall in special teams DVOA, which weights the strength of the team’s opponents, among other things.

Seattle’s offense ranked 2nd during the regular season in EPA/dropback and 1st in DVOA on play-action pass attempts, but they might find it difficult to get that part of their aerial attack going in the Super Bowl. New England’s defense ranked 4th in EPA/dropback and 11th in DVOA against play-action – the latter of which is deflated due to the team’s easy strength of schedule.

If the Seahawks can’t generate successful run plays on early downs, it could put this offense in a lot of very unfavorable situations.

NFL-best pass defense faces tall task in Super Bowl LX

If there is one area where Seattle’s pass defense has been vulnerable this season, it’s where plays have been extended by mobile quarterbacks. According to Evan Lazar of Patriots.com, the Seahawks allowed the most passing yards on plays “out of structure” in the entire NFL this season.

As underwhelming as Maye has been throwing the football during these playoffs, there is no denying that he fits the mold of a quarterback who can strain a defense after the initial pass rush. In these playoffs, Maye has made countless big plays with his legs. He had 10 carries for 65 rushing yards (including a touchdown) in the AFC Championship game. Maye also had 66 rushing yards in the team’s playoff opener against the Chargers. If Seattle tries to take away those scrambles for big yards, it could open up passing lanes downfield.

Maye’s ability to get outside the pocket and make things happen after the play has broken down is a huge X factor in this matchup.

Super Bowl LX Prediction

New England and Seattle ranked 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in points per game on offense during the regular season. They ranked 3rd and 1st, respectively, in points allowed per game on defense.

On the league’s biggest stage, it’s likely that we see these defenses control the game script. The Patriots were intentional about kicking away from star punt returner Marvin Mims Jr. in the AFC Championship game, eliminating the potential for big plays on special teams. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them take a similar approach in the Super Bowl to reduce the impact of Rashid Shaheed.

Seattle’s defense has been top-tier on a down-to-down basis in every game they have played this season. If they can limit the explosive plays through the air, it’s difficult to see a path to significant points scored for New England.

Expect Sunday’s action to be dominated by these defenses in what should be a low-scoring finale to this year’s NFL campaign.

PICK: Under 45.5 (-105, DraftKings)

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