Searching for a Specialist: Alfred Dunhill

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Welcome back for another specialist search. We head overseas to look at the Alfred Dunhill Championship this week, but I will also include a few nuggets for the Hero World Challenge at the bottom, even though the field is a measly 18 golfers.

The course this week is Leopard Creek Country Club. It’s a difficult, par 72 layout in South Africa with bentgrass greens.

Looking at the type of golfers that have excelled here historically, the numbers suggest typical bentgrass specialists don’t have an advantage here, so we will toss that angle out the window.

That leaves us with Performance on the continent of Africa, performance on par 72 courses, and we’ll finish up with data on difficult courses.

Here we go…

Performance in Africa

Golf in Africa is pretty unique. Kikuyu grasses tee-to-green are the norm and the climate is certainly different than you’ll find on most of Europe or Asia.

Looking back since the start of 2015, we can narrow down our list of potential specialists by finding which golfers raise their game when they head to Africa.

The Top 10 Africa Specialists are:

Daniel Im (1.697 sg:African Continent vs. 0.578 sg:total)
Haydn Porteous (0.711 sg:African Continent vs. -0.39 sg:total)
Branden Grace (3.623 sg:African Continent vs. 2.561 sg:total)
Scott Jamieson (1.446 sg:African Continent vs. 0.449 sg:total)
Thomas Aiken (2.481 sg:African Continent vs. 1.582 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (2.962 sg:African Continent vs. 2.113 sg:total)
Justin Walters (1.339 sg:African Continent vs. 0.543 sg:total)
John Parry (0.83 sg:African Continent vs. 0.039 sg:total)
George Coetzee (1.896 sg:African Continent vs. 1.184 sg:total)
Ross McGowan (0.47 sg:African Continent vs. -0.171 sg:total)

Most of the golfers on the list are South Africans, but that’s mainly due to scheduling. While most of the big guns rest up or head to Australia, the South Africans head home early in the season and play in as many Euro Tour events as they can. It’s much easier for them to get into these fields compared to the mid-season events. Because of that, it’s not surprising to see most of the list populated by RSA.

Justin Walters is an interesting name here. He’s found the top 25 in eight of his last 13 Euro Tour events played in Africa.

There are three golfers in the field who are flawless in terms of finding top 25s when playing in Africa (since 2015). Those three are Branden Grace, Scott Vincent, and Rahil Gangjee. Grace is a perfect 6-for-6 while the other two have just one or two apiece.

Richard McEvoy is the nearly the opposite as he’s found just one top 25 over his last 13 tries in Africa.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 58

Hard Courses

Leopard Creek Country Club is no walk in the park. The field average score over the last six editions is 0.87 strokes over par.

When we have shootouts like the recent RSM Classic, we see plenty of “scrubs” rise to the top. Easy courses do not test all facets of the game so it makes sense that someone that gets hot in one area of their game can thrive on an easy course.

It’s the opposite when it comes to tough tests. The cream usually rise to the top, because there is no faking your way around a golf course that penalizes poor shots.

The 10 Hard Course Specialists remaining:

Charl Schwartzel (3.238 sg:hard vs. 2.113 sg:total)
Danie Van Tonder (0.358 sg:hard vs. -0.712 sg:total)
Shaun Norris (1.205 sg:hard vs. 0.154 sg:total)
Branden Grace (3.586 sg:hard vs. 2.561 sg:total)
Gregory Bourdy (2.241 sg:hard vs. 1.436 sg:total)
Thomas Aiken (2.349 sg:hard vs. 1.582 sg:total)
Brandon Stone (1.758 sg:hard vs. 1.12 sg:total)
Louis De Jager (0.242 sg:hard vs. -0.383 sg:total)
Tjaart Van Der Walt (1.209 sg:hard vs. 0.671 sg:total)
Ross Mcgowan (0.355 sg:hard vs. -0.171 sg:total)

Right away we see a lot of cream on this list. Charl, Grace, Bourdy, and Aiken are all in the top tier in terms of talent. They also elevate their game compared to the average Tour player when it comes to battling a hard course.

Jbe’ Kruger is a very interesting case on the opposite side of the spectrum. He’s found just one top 25 over his last 20 starts on courses where the field averages 0.75 or higher. However, he’s also found four top 25s in his last six starts at this course, so there is definitely something that fits his eye here at Leopard Creek.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 47

Par 72 Courses

Whenever we head to a par-72 layout, we know there will be at least four par 5s. That means bombers generally get a boost.

At the same time, smart golfers are able to plan their way around par 72s and that can also lead to a boost.

An easy way to find out which golfers excel on par 72s is to just look at the numbers.

The Top 10 Par 72 specialists:

Shaun Norris (1.026 sg:par72 vs. 0.154 sg:total)
Lyle Rowe (0.096 sg:par72 vs. -0.554 sg:total)
Danie Van Tonder (-0.192 sg:par72 vs. -0.712 sg:total)
Bernd Ritthammer (0.989 sg:par72 vs. 0.483 sg:total)
Dylan Frittelli (1.603 sg:par72 vs. 1.131 sg:total)
Gregory Bourdy (1.803 sg:par72 vs. 1.436 sg:total)
Justin Harding (-0.134 sg:par72 vs. -0.491 sg:total)
Jbe’ Kruger (0.347 sg:par72 vs. 0.01 sg:total)
Branden Grace (2.844 sg:par72 vs. 2.561 sg:total)
Thomas Aiken (1.85 sg:par72 vs. 1.582 sg:total)

Bourdy has the sample size working in his favor for this angle. Looking at the entire field, Bourdy has 16 top 25s when taking on par 72s (since 2015) while the next closest is Branden Grace with 13, and only five are in double digits over that time span.

Daniel Brooks, on the other hand, you may want to avoid. He’s found top 25s in just 3-of-36 events played on par 72 layouts.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 24

Baseline Performance

We’ve narrowed our list of potential specialists to 24 golfers, but this is still one more step to eliminate the complete long shots. By looking at long-term performance since 2015, we can remove any golfers that are losing strokes to the field:

Ulrich Van Den Berg
Ross McGowan
Louis De Jager
Justin Harding
Lyle Rowe
Danie Van Tonder

This list above has a good course fit but would need a career week basically in order to find themselves in contention. Our second filter looks at recent play, and there are five golfers remaining that don’t have any Euro Tour starts recently, so we will pass on them, except in GPPs perhaps.

Keith Horne
Adilson Da Silva
Max Orrin
Shaun Norris
Matthew Nixon

GOLFERS REMAINING: 13

The Specialists

Branden Grace
Thomas Aiken
Scott Jamieson
Charl Schwartzel
Bernd Ritthammer
Jbe’ Kruger
Darren Fichardt
Gregory Bourdy
David Drysdale
Benjamin Hebert
Dylan Frittelli
Richard Sterne
Erik Van Rooyen

branden-grace-300x200

Our specialist this week is Branden Grace!

We’ve got a lengthy list of specialists this week. The list includes a lot of firepower as 12 of the 13 specialists are inside the top 20 in terms of highest salaries this week. It turns out the market has priced this event very well.

The only specialist in the value bin is Erik Van Rooyen as he checks in at $6,900 this week.

If I sort by the course history metric I look at then 12 of the 13 specialists are inside the top 30. Only Bernd Ritthammer doesn’t bring positive course history with him.

The Anti-Specialists

If we look for the exact opposite of our specialists, we can find some potential fades. This week we have just one:

Richard McEvoy

Hero World Challenge

With the field being just 18 elite golfers this week, there aren’t any true specialists in the field. Everyone in the field has the potential to win this week… yes, even Tiger!

Instead of a full breakdown, let’s just have a look at a few of the categories.

The Top 10 Par 72 Specialists:

J.B. Holmes (1.672 sg:par72 vs. 1.36 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (2.706 sg:par72 vs. 2.456 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.336 sg:par72 vs. 2.122 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (1.665 sg:par72 vs. 1.465 sg:total)
Zach Johnson (1.82 sg:par72 vs. 1.62 sg:total)
Justin Rose (2.482 sg:par72 vs. 2.29 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (1.723 sg:par72 vs. 1.54 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.184 sg:par72 vs. 2.02 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (2.658 sg:par72 vs. 2.504 sg:total)
Brandt Snedeker (1.582 sg:par72 vs. 1.485 sg:total)

The Top 5 Bermuda Specialists:

Bubba Watson (2.411 sg:bermuda vs. 2.16 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (1.746 sg:bermuda vs. 1.54 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.125 sg:bermuda vs. 2.02 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (1.549 sg:bermuda vs. 1.465 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (1.883 sg:bermuda vs. 1.836 sg:total)

The Top 3 No-Cut Specialists:

Dustin Johnson (2.719 sg:no-cut vs. 2.504 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.048 sg:no-cut vs. 1.909 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (2.196 sg:no-cut vs. 2.16 sg:total)

Golfers that made two of the three lists are Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar, and Louis Oosthuizen. I’m not suggesting that’s the perfect core, but all five should have a nice course fit and you can plug in anyone in the field for your final spot.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 20 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2015),

Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks (Euro Tour & PGA TOUR) and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained with positive numbers being a good thing.

Golfer DK SG:Total Form Par 72 Africa Hard Courses Specialist Rating
Shaun Norris $7,400 0.18 0 0.87 0.56 1.05 0.48
Haydn Porteous $7,400 -0.37 -0.61 0.28 1.1 -0.23 0.46
Branden Grace $11,200 2.57 1.74 0.28 1.06 1.03 0.45
Thomas Aiken $8,500 1.59 0.69 0.27 0.9 0.77 0.39
Scott Jamieson $7,900 0.45 0.61 0.03 1 0.37 0.34
Danie Van Tonder $7,700 -0.69 0 0.52 0.42 1.07 0.31
Paul Maddy $5,800 -0.4 0 0.92 0 0.56 0.31
Charl Schwartzel $12,000 2.13 1.91 0.02 0.85 1.13 0.29
Daniel Im $6,400 0.59 -0.08 -0.26 1.12 -0.31 0.29
Bernd Ritthammer $7,900 0.49 0.04 0.51 0.32 0.24 0.28
Jbe’ Kruger $8,100 0.02 0.78 0.34 0.44 0.03 0.26
Lyle Rowe $5,700 -0.51 0 0.65 0.1 0.38 0.25
Darren Fichardt $7,900 0.47 0.22 0.25 0.45 0.2 0.24
Ross McGowan $5,800 -0.15 -0.41 0.06 0.64 0.53 0.24
John Parry $5,800 0.04 0.22 -0.2 0.79 0.17 0.2
Louis De Jager $6,600 -0.35 0 0.18 0.4 0.63 0.19
Tjaart Van der Walt $7,000 0.68 0.24 -0.03 0.61 0.54 0.19
Matthew Nixon $6,500 0.14 0 0.26 0.32 0.38 0.19
Gary Stal $7,300 0.43 0 0.57 0 0.59 0.19
Justin Harding $6,400 -0.46 0 0.36 0.21 0.44 0.19
Gregory Bourdy $9,500 1.44 0.99 0.37 0.2 0.81 0.19
David Drysdale $8,000 0.71 0.76 0.14 0.42 0.14 0.19
Benjamin Hebert $8,000 0.95 0.21 0.25 0.3 0.3 0.18
Max Orrin $6,200 0.43 0 0.16 0.38 0.17 0.18
Keith Horne $7,800 1.14 0 0.17 0.36 0.33 0.18
Dylan Frittelli $7,700 1.16 0.12 0.47 0.05 0.5 0.18
Garth Mulroy $7,400 0.02 0 -0.06 0.58 -0.19 0.17
Darren Clarke $5,600 -0.63 0 0.52 0 0.51 0.17
George Coetzee $9,100 1.19 1.46 -0.2 0.71 0.06 0.17
Peter Karmis $6,800 -0.85 0 0 0.5 0 0.17
P.H. McIntyre $6,700 -1.53 0 0 0.48 0 0.16
Richard Sterne $9,300 1.65 1.25 0.14 0.32 0.49 0.15
Laurie Canter $6,200 -0.38 -0.19 0.42 0 -0.24 0.14
Alvaro Quiros $7,300 0.29 -0.18 0.4 0 0.45 0.13
Oliver Bekker $5,800 0.5 -0.46 -0.01 0.41 0.07 0.13
Adilson Da Silva $7,200 0.83 0 0.12 0.26 0.06 0.13
Gregory Havret $7,500 0.68 0.89 0.37 0 0.6 0.12
Graeme Storm $6,000 0.51 0.59 0.36 0 0.06 0.12
Erik Van Rooyen $6,900 1.13 0.06 0.13 0.23 0.35 0.12
Ulrich Van Den Berg $6,500 -0.05 -0.08 0.16 0.19 0.35 0.12
Andrew Curlewis $5,900 0.04 0 0 0.34 0.36 0.11
Jared Harvey $6,500 0.77 0 0 0.34 0 0.11
Michael Hoey $5,700 0.02 -0.63 0.34 0 0.48 0.11
Justin Walters $7,700 0.55 0.37 -0.47 0.8 -0.28 0.11
Mark Foster $6,900 0.15 -0.1 0.29 -0.01 0.02 0.09
Pablo Larrazabal $8,200 1.02 0.82 0.25 0 0.37 0.08
Kristoffer Broberg $7,600 0.82 -0.34 0.24 0 -0.05 0.08
Sebastien Gros $6,600 0.44 -1.55 0.18 0 1.11 0.06
Paul Dunne $7,500 1.09 0.53 0.18 0 -0.07 0.06
Eddie Pepperell $7,800 0.48 0.47 0.18 0 0.18 0.06
Daniel Brooks $7,600 0.02 0.3 0.03 0.12 -0.07 0.05
Titch Moore $6,000 -1.82 0 0 0.15 0 0.05
Dean Burmester $7,600 1.27 0.44 -0.28 0.43 0.26 0.05
Chris Swanepoel $5,600 0.67 0 0 0.14 -0.17 0.05
Neil Schietekat $6,200 0.36 0 0 0.14 0 0.05
Anthony Michael $6,900 1.57 0 0 0.14 0 0.05
Chris Hanson $6,900 0.93 -0.54 -0.04 0.17 0.5 0.04
Doug McGuigan $5,900 0.11 0 0 0.13 0.34 0.04
Wallie Coetsee $7,100 -0.09 0 0 0.13 -0.38 0.04
Andrew Georgiou $5,900 -1.25 0 0 0.12 0 0.04
Callum Mowat $6,500 -0.18 0 0 0.12 0 0.04
Michael Hollick $5,900 -1.54 0 0 0.11 0 0.04
Mark Williams $7,200 0.38 0 0 0.11 0 0.04
Ruan De Smidt $6,300 -0.7 0 0 0.11 0 0.04
Vaughn Groenewald $6,300 -0.39 0 0 0.1 0.38 0.03
Tyrone Ferreira $6,200 0.01 0 0 0.1 -0.08 0.03
Christiaan Basson $7,200 -0.07 0 0 0.1 0.31 0.03
Rhys West $5,700 0.66 0.2 -0.03 0.12 -0.3 0.03
Brandon Stone $8,800 1.14 -0.92 -0.12 0.18 0.64 0.02
Carlos Pigem $6,100 0.59 0 0.02 0 0.03 0.01
Merrick Bremner $7,100 0.29 0.16 -0.14 0.14 -0.09 0
Jacques Kruyswijk $8,000 1.16 0 0 0 0 0
Thomas Detry $7,500 1.27 0 0 0 0 0
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,500 1.22 0.08 0 0 0 0
Adrien Saddier $7,400 -0.39 0 0 0 0 0
Madalitso Muthiya $7,400 -1.12 0 0 0 0 0
Scott Vincent $7,300 1.73 0 0 0 0 0
Alexander Bjork $7,300 1.72 0 0 0 0 0
Steven Tiley $7,100 0.62 0 0 0 0 0
Andre De Decker $7,100 0 0 0 0 0 0
Richard S. Johnson $7,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jack Hume $7,000 -0.56 -0.07 0 0 0 0
Rafa Echenique $7,000 -0.56 0 0 0 0 0
Marcus Armitage $6,800 0.37 0 0 0 0 0
Warren Abery $6,800 -2.45 0 0 0 0 0
Pontus Widegren $6,800 -0.99 0 0 0 0 0
Clayton Bridges $6,700 0 0 0 0 0 0
Matthieu Pavon $6,700 0 0 0 0 0 0
Allister De Kock $6,700 -3.7 0 0 0 0 0
Omar Sandys $6,700 -6.49 0 0 0 0 0
Espen Kofstad $6,600 0.54 0 0 0 0 0
Pep Angles $6,600 0.78 0 0 0 0 0
Arthur Horne $6,400 -4.51 0 0 0 0 0
Steven Ferreira $6,400 -0.26 0 0 0 0 0
JC Ritchie $6,400 -0.89 0 0 0 0 0
Ben Wharton $6,300 0.52 0 0 0 0 0
Marc Cayeux $6,300 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nathan Kimsey $6,300 0 0 0 0 0 0
Joel Stalter $6,300 -1.03 0 0 0 0 0
Jason King $6,200 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tung-hung Hsieh $6,200 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sebastian Heisele $6,200 -0.55 -0.42 0 0 0 0
Jeff Inglis $6,200 -3.05 0 0 0 0 0
Clement Sordet $6,100 0.31 0 0 0 0 0
Anton Karlsson $6,100 0 0 0 0 0 0
Matt Wallace $6,100 -0.16 0 0 0 0 0
Jason Froneman $6,100 -1.12 0 0 0 0 0
Damien Perrier $6,100 -1.92 0 0 0 0 0
Leorin Pillay $6,100 -3.84 0 0 0 0 0
Toto Thimba Jr. $6,100 -1.99 0 0 0 0 0
Jean-Paul Strydom $6,000 -0.67 0 0 0 0 0
Lindsay Renolds $6,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tim Hart $6,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chun Kang Hung $6,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ashley Chesters $6,000 -0.59 0 0 0 0 0
Bryce Easton $6,000 -0.81 0 0 0 0 0
Pablo Martin Benavides $5,900 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dale Brandt-Richards $5,900 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alexander Pitty $5,900 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fei-Hao Yang $5,900 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jake Redman $5,900 -1.37 0 0 0 0 0
Morten Orum Madsen $5,800 -0.92 -0.1 0 0 0 0
Rahil Gangjee $5,800 1.18 0 0 0 0 0
Heath Slocum $5,800 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamie Rutherford $5,800 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ockie Strydom $5,800 -0.26 0 0 0 0 0
Rourke Van Der Spuy $5,700 0.15 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Carter $5,700 0.32 0 0 0 0 0
Simon Griffiths $5,700 0.05 0 0 0 0 0
Braden Becker $5,700 0 0 0 0 0 0
Christopher Cannon $5,700 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dwayne Basson $5,700 -2.46 0 0 0 0 0
DJ Loypur $5,600 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Bernard $5,600 0 0 0 0 0 0
Christofer Blomstrand $5,600 0 0 0 0 0 0
Albert Venter $5,600 -2.16 0 0 0 0 0
Heinrich Bruiners $5,600 -1.74 0 0 0 0 0
Teboho Sefatsa $5,600 -2.83 0 0 0 0 0
Keenan Davidse $5,600 -2.08 0 0 0 0 0
Lasse Jensen $7,500 0.45 0.91 0.09 -0.12 0.19 -0.01
Tyrone Mordt $6,200 -0.86 0 0 -0.13 0.39 -0.04
Colin Nel $5,700 0.16 0 0 -0.16 -0.24 -0.05
Jaco Ahlers $7,600 0.29 0.63 -0.24 0.05 0.03 -0.06
Adrian Otaegui $7,300 0.69 0.19 -0.08 -0.12 0.44 -0.07
Richard McEvoy $5,900 0.49 0.87 -0.12 -0.08 -0.16 -0.07
Zander Lombard $7,800 1.15 -0.09 0 -0.21 -0.31 -0.07
Jean Hugo $7,200 0.68 0.57 -0.29 0.08 -0.26 -0.07
Jeff Winther $6,100 -0.22 -0.49 -0.27 0 0.3 -0.09
Jake Roos $6,500 -0.35 -0.01 -0.13 -0.2 0.46 -0.11
Jens Fahrbring $6,600 -0.17 -0.01 -0.44 0 -0.44 -0.15
Scott Henry $5,800 0.62 0 0.06 -0.66 -0.29 -0.2

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.