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Searching for a Specialist: AT&T Byron Nelson

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Welcome back for another specialist search.

The TOUR readies for the Texas Two Stop with golfers teeing it up just outside of Dallas this week and Colonial on deck next week.

There are five angles that showed nice correlation this week, but three of them stood out above the rest.

We are going to keep things very simple and go with that trio of angles: Performance on Bentgrass Greens, Performance in Texas, and Performance on Slow Greens.

Let’s go…

Bentgrass Greens

When bentgrass greens are on the docket, I generally think ball-striking right away.

There is are some elite putters that thrive on bentgrass but for the most part, bermuda takes much more skill to master.

The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists are:

Michael Putnam (0.941 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.365 sg:total)
Ernie Els (0.985 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.41 sg:total)
Jonathan Randolph (0.531 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.038 sg:total)
Miguel Angel Carballo (-0.036 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.589 sg:total)
Chris Stroud (1.22 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.719 sg:total)
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano (0.718 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.231 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (1.192 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.745 sg:total)
Robert Garrigus (0.882 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.438 sg:total)
Chad Campbell (1.331 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.909 sg:total)
Geoff Ogilvy (0.8 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.404 sg:total)

There are a few phony specialists on the list above, due to extremely low baselines.

If we narrow the list down exclusively to golfers that gaine at least 1 stroke per round over the field on bentgrass we get the following list: Chris Stroud, Billy Hurley III, Chad Campbell, Kyle Reifers, Russell Henley, Michael Kim, Ian Poulter, Cameron Tringale, Shawn Stefani, and Keegan Bradley.

Texas Events

There are three states that get a lot of love from the PGA TOUR schedule (California, Florida, and Texas). Each state offers a different test given the course conditions, weather, and time of year played.

When Texas rolls around, we generally see firm and fast condtions with plenty of wind to wreck havoc. Some golfers excel in these conditions, let’s find out who.

The 10 Texas Specialists:

Kyle Reifers (1.833 sg:Texas vs. 0.687 sg:total)
Steven Bowditch (0.398 sg:Texas vs. -0.469 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (2.083 sg:Texas vs. 1.299 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (1.258 sg:Texas vs. 0.536 sg:total)
Brendon Todd (1.299 sg:Texas vs. 0.665 sg:total)
Shawn Stefani (1.431 sg:Texas vs. 0.835 sg:total)
Michael Thompson (1.018 sg:Texas vs. 0.443 sg:total)
Tom Hoge (0.923 sg:Texas vs. 0.351 sg:total)
Ryan Palmer (2.186 sg:Texas vs. 1.626 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.941 sg:Texas vs. 1.421 sg:total)

It’s no surprise to see four of the names above live in Texas or went to college in Texas.

Golfers that are more than half-a-shot WORSE (per round) on Texas courses since 2014 include: Angel Cabrera, Seung-yul Noh, Robert Streb, Jason Kokrak, and Ken Duke.

Slow Greens

After a run of events with fast greens, we slow down the tempo this week to greens that generally run 10.5 to 11 feet on the stimpmeter.

The Top 10 Slow Green Specialists:

Tim Wilkinson (1.053 sg:slow greens vs. 0.327 sg:total)
Scott Brown (1.328 sg:slow greens vs. 0.672 sg:total)
Daniel Summerhays (1.698 sg:slow greens vs. 1.046 sg:total)
Zac Blair (1.187 sg:slow greens vs. 0.67 sg:total)
John Peterson (0.83 sg:slow greens vs. 0.326 sg:total)
Steven Bowditch (0.033 sg:slow greens vs. -0.469 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (0.706 sg:slow greens vs. 0.238 sg:total)
Will MacKenzie (0.828 sg:slow greens vs. 0.38 sg:total)
Boo Weekley (0.868 sg:slow greens vs. 0.44 sg:total)
Sam Saunders (0.595 sg:slow greens vs. 0.178 sg:total)

Zac Blair is an interesting name here as he nearly doubles his baseline output on slow greens.

Blair is known as a great putter but does his best work on slower greens. On the flip side, golfers like John Peterson and Boo Weekley are generally puking up strokes with the putter but they get a little closer to the field average when greens are slow.

Baseline Performance

The goal of this search is to find some golfers with a good course fit. At the same time, we don’t want to rely on golfers that need the week of their lives just to crack the top 25.

The following golfers are struggling with their current form or have a baseline SGT below the field average, making them GPP-only options despite their good course fit.

GPP-Only Options:

Robert Garrigus
Shawn Stefani
Brendon Todd
Steven Bowditch
Andres Gonzales

There is too much risk with this bunch for my liking, but Garrigus and Stefani would be the two I’d consider in GPPs.

The Specialists

Kyle Reifers
Tony Finau
Chad Campbell
Billy Hurley III
Graham DeLaet
Jordan Spieth

Our specialist this week is Kyle Reifers!

Reifers arrives with some ho-hum form, even by his standards. However, he’s doing just enough to keep his form better than this week’s field average.

The real reason he pops is his performance in Texas. Reifers has 11 career finishes of T11 or better, with FIVE of them coming in Texas.

Spieth is a very interesting name here because he’s on the record saying this course doesn’t suit his eye. That is data that can’t really be picked up in the results, but on paper his style of play sets up nicely. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him figure it out here in front of a home crowd.

The Anti-Specialists

The specialists above are positive in all three angles, but which golfers are the opposite and show a poor course fit?

Seung-Yul Noh
Jhonattan Vegas

No big names this week. As anti-specialists, I will avoid them with ease.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),

Form looks at the performance over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro).

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG:Total Form Bentgrass Texas Slow Greens Specialist Rating
Kyle Reifers $6,400 $5,400 $12,300 0.687 0.582 0.361 1.145 0.365 0.624
Steven Bowditch $6,500 $4,500 $10,800 -0.469 -2.236 0.351 0.867 0.502 0.573
Brendon Todd $7,000 $5,800 $11,100 0.665 -1.319 0.284 0.634 0.27 0.396
Robert Garrigus $7,100 $5,300 $12,300 0.438 0.308 0.444 0.379 0.24 0.354
Shawn Stefani $6,800 $5,200 $11,500 0.835 0.307 0.212 0.596 0.242 0.35
Tim Wilkinson $6,600 $4,700 $12,300 0.327 0.748 -0.004 0.229 0.726 0.317
Daniel Summerhays $7,300 $6,200 $12,200 1.046 0.271 -0.186 0.413 0.651 0.293
Charley Hoffman $8,500 $7,900 $16,200 1.299 1.747 -0.063 0.784 0.149 0.29
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano $7,200 $5,100 $11,600 0.231 1.278 0.487 0 0.375 0.288
Zac Blair $6,600 $5,700 $12,600 0.67 1.003 -0.199 0.512 0.517 0.277
Andres Gonzales $6,900 $4,500 $11,400 0.199 1.085 0.146 0.29 0.388 0.275
Nick Taylor $6,900 $5,700 $13,400 0.536 1.453 -0.013 0.722 0.11 0.273
Chris Stroud $6,800 $5,100 $12,100 0.719 1.21 0.501 0.462 -0.157 0.269
Miguel Angel Carballo $6,000 $4,500 $10,800 -0.589 -1.441 0.552 0 0.209 0.254
Tony Finau $9,200 $7,700 $16,000 1.429 2.652 0.125 0.319 0.258 0.234
Chad Campbell $6,200 $4,900 $12,000 0.909 1.209 0.421 0.176 0.009 0.202
Rod Pampling $6,200 $5,200 $11,400 0.232 1.147 0.369 0 0.233 0.2
Michael Kim $7,400 $5,400 $12,800 0.709 1.093 0.318 0 0.269 0.196
Ernie Els $6,000 $5,200 $11,000 0.41 -1.197 0.574 0 0 0.191
Jonathan Randolph $6,700 $5,000 $12,600 -0.038 2.112 0.569 0 0 0.19
Billy Hurley III $6,900 $5,800 $13,200 0.745 1.558 0.447 0.094 0.008 0.183
Michael Thompson $7,100 $5,100 $12,300 0.443 0.688 -0.192 0.575 0.152 0.178
Jason Dufner $8,800 $8,000 $16,000 1.421 2.077 -0.236 0.52 0.205 0.163
Hunter Mahan $6,800 $5,700 $11,200 0.631 -0.111 0.31 -0.169 0.318 0.153
Tom Hoge $7,000 $4,800 $11,600 0.351 0.942 -0.054 0.572 -0.101 0.139
Chad Collins $7,000 $4,700 $10,900 0.236 0.053 0.074 0.351 -0.008 0.139
Graham DeLaet $7,600 $6,100 $14,700 1.216 1.253 0.107 0.117 0.184 0.136
Patrick Reed $9,400 $8,800 $16,100 1.61 1.379 0.127 0 0.278 0.135
Michael Putnam $6,800 $4,900 $10,800 0.365 0 0.576 -0.065 -0.16 0.117
Smylie Kaufman $7,100 $6,200 $14,500 0.722 0.991 0.146 0 0.195 0.114
Scott Brown $6,600 $6,000 $12,300 0.672 -0.367 -0.094 -0.222 0.656 0.113
Cameron Percy $7,400 $4,900 $11,700 0.502 0.643 0.061 0 0.273 0.111
Mark Hubbard $6,700 $4,500 $10,800 0.069 -1.104 0.076 0 0.257 0.111
Ryan Moore $7,600 $8,400 $15,500 1.595 2.213 -0.092 0 0.408 0.105
Ryan Palmer $8,200 $7,200 $15,500 1.626 2.019 0.029 0.56 -0.278 0.103
Jordan Spieth $10,800 $10,500 $18,400 2.566 1.463 0.06 0.058 0.183 0.1
Ian Poulter $7,600 $7,000 $14,800 1.161 1.881 0.277 0 0 0.092
Charl Schwartzel $8,100 $7,400 $15,200 1.683 2.465 0.063 -0.135 0.343 0.09
Boo Weekley $7,100 $5,200 $12,300 0.44 0.414 -0.256 0.075 0.429 0.083
Spencer Levin $7,200 $5,000 $11,800 0.45 0.537 0.172 0.17 -0.121 0.074
Chez Reavie $7,000 $5,600 $12,600 0.963 0.764 0.106 0 0.107 0.071
Bryce Molder $6,500 $5,400 $11,900 0.681 0.201 -0.343 0.194 0.359 0.07
Gary Woodland $7,700 $8,200 $14,400 1.515 -0.159 -0.159 0 0.365 0.069
Max Homa $7,100 $4,500 NA -0.593 -0.629 -0.16 0 0.361 0.067
Sam Saunders $6,800 $5,100 $11,600 0.178 1.342 -0.217 0 0.417 0.067
Scott Stallings $6,500 $5,200 $11,800 0.238 -1.326 -0.275 0 0.469 0.065
Anirban Lahiri $6,400 $6,100 NA 0.762 0.48 0.183 0 0 0.061
Bryson DeChambeau $7,100 $6,000 $12,400 0.67 0.858 0.1 0 0 0.033
Will MacKenzie $6,800 $4,800 $11,500 0.38 0.336 -0.354 0 0.448 0.032
Harris English $6,600 $5,900 $12,000 1.228 -1.186 -0.092 0.107 0.068 0.028
Tyler Aldridge $6,300 $4,600 $10,900 0.148 -0.141 0.138 0 -0.075 0.021
J.J. Henry $6,600 $5,200 $11,600 0.077 1.186 0.167 -0.04 -0.069 0.019
Alex Cejka $7,200 $5,100 $11,600 0.699 0.648 0.175 0 -0.121 0.018
Ben Crane $6,500 $5,400 $12,100 0.418 0.11 0.003 0.38 -0.334 0.016
Charlie Beljan $7,100 $4,500 $10,800 -0.689 -2.589 0.098 0 -0.055 0.014
Nick Watney $6,900 $6,800 $13,500 0.939 0.472 0.043 0 0 0.014
Willy Wilcox $6,800 $5,400 $11,900 0.721 0.805 0.194 0 -0.154 0.013
Whee Kim $6,100 $5,400 $11,400 0.403 0.305 -0.063 0.164 -0.062 0.013
Brad Fritsch $6,500 $4,500 $11,000 0.196 -0.222 0 0 0.031 0.01
Sergio Garcia $11,000 $10,200 NA 2.451 3.681 0.03 0 0 0.01
Scott Piercy $7,000 $6,400 $12,400 1.007 -2.335 0.106 -0.157 0.053 0.001
Ollie Schniederjans $7,700 $7,700 $15,000 1.091 1.967 0 0 0 0
J.T. Poston $7,300 $6,400 $13,200 1.114 1.869 0 0 0 0
J.J. Spaun $7,300 $7,000 $13,100 1.087 1.292 0 0 0 0
Ryan Blaum $7,000 $5,600 $11,500 0.876 0.758 0 0 0 0
Cody Gribble $7,100 $5,000 $11,600 0.735 0.235 0 0 0 0
C.T. Pan $6,100 $4,700 $11,700 0.476 -0.191 0 0 0 0
Beau Hossler $6,100 $5,500 $11,700 0.455 0.135 0 0 0 0
Ryan Brehm $7,300 NA $11,300 0.427 0.246 0 0 0 0
Trey Mullinax $6,600 $4,700 $11,400 0.416 -0.335 0 0 0 0
Xander Schauffele $6,600 $4,900 $12,500 0.318 1.359 0 0 0 0
Richy Werenski $6,200 $4,600 $10,900 0.264 -0.741 0 0 0 0
Robby Shelton $7,400 $4,800 $12,200 0.248 0.395 0 0 0 0
Dominic Bozzelli $6,700 $5,800 $11,600 0.145 0.497 0 0 0 0
Grayson Murray $6,100 $5,200 $11,600 0.133 -0.381 0 0 0 0
Shane Bertsch $6,500 $4,500 $10,700 0.073 -1.386 0 0 0 0
Nicholas Lindheim $7,300 $4,500 $11,200 0.004 0.843 0 0 0 0
Paul Earnest $6,000 $4,500 NA 0 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Smotherman $6,600 $4,500 $10,700 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Armour $6,500 $4,600 $11,000 -0.021 0.359 0 0 0 0
Brett Drewitt $7,100 $4,600 $10,900 -0.032 0.359 0 0 0 0
Sebastian Munoz $6,000 $4,500 $11,200 -0.051 0.121 0 0 0 0
Julian Etulain $7,000 $5,300 $12,200 -0.097 0.695 0 0 0 0
Mark Anderson $7,000 $4,700 $11,200 -0.212 1.253 0 0 0 0
Brian Campbell $6,700 $4,500 $10,800 -0.362 -0.539 0 0 0 0
Joel Dahmen $6,300 $4,500 $10,700 -0.385 -1.435 0 0 0 0
Bob Estes $7,100 $4,700 $10,800 -0.411 0.778 0 0 0 0
Kramer Hickok $6,200 $4,500 NA -0.474 0 0 0 0 0
Bobby Wyatt $7,000 $4,500 $10,800 -0.684 -2.414 0 0 0 0
Zack Sucher $6,700 $4,500 $10,800 -0.748 0.243 0 0 0 0
Stuart Deane $6,200 $4,500 NA -1.119 0 0 0 0 0
Rick Lamb $6,300 $4,500 $10,800 -1.196 -0.914 0 0 0 0
Bobby Gates $6,500 $4,500 $10,700 -2.911 0 0 0 0 0
Fabrizio Zanotti $6,900 $5,500 $13,100 1.031 1.191 0 0 0 0
Seamus Power $6,400 $5,900 $11,900 0.896 0.583 0 0 0 0
Brandon Hagy $7,000 $5,300 $12,900 0.622 1.058 0 0 0 0
Jason Bohn $7,000 $4,700 $10,900 0.714 -0.395 0.118 0 -0.118 0
Brooks Koepka $10,200 $9,500 $17,400 1.855 2.92 -0.025 0 0.014 -0.004
John Peterson $7,500 $5,300 $12,000 0.326 0.191 -0.518 0 0.504 -0.005
Kelly Kraft $6,700 NA $11,500 0.179 -1.661 0 0 -0.019 -0.006
Matt Jones $7,100 $5,600 $12,300 0.956 1.045 -0.045 0.272 -0.261 -0.011
Sean O’Hair $7,200 $6,300 $12,200 0.738 -0.491 -0.13 0.253 -0.161 -0.013
Brandt Snedeker $8,400 $9,200 $15,800 1.623 2.173 0.101 0 -0.141 -0.013
John Huh $6,500 $5,800 $12,500 0.663 1.472 0.003 0.199 -0.256 -0.018
Ricky Barnes $6,100 $5,100 $11,600 0.405 0.024 0.17 -0.245 0.021 -0.018
Greg Owen $6,600 $4,600 $11,000 0.078 -0.232 -0.191 0 0.115 -0.025
Matt Kuchar $8,700 $9,400 $15,900 2.038 1.566 0.105 -0.091 -0.096 -0.027
Sung Kang $7,400 $6,100 $14,500 1.083 2.448 0.076 0 -0.159 -0.028
Danny Lee $7,100 $6,500 $13,300 0.939 0.944 0.154 0.073 -0.315 -0.029
Tyrone Van Aswegen $7,000 $5,200 $11,600 0.239 0.441 0.358 -0.115 -0.334 -0.031
John Merrick $6,900 $4,500 $11,100 0.06 0.407 -0.194 0.163 -0.089 -0.04
Kevin Tway $7,700 $6,300 $14,800 -0.083 2.695 0.356 0 -0.484 -0.043
Billy Horschel $6,700 $6,500 $13,300 1.302 0.057 0.005 0 -0.139 -0.045
Patrick Rodgers $7,000 $5,500 $12,100 0.646 -2.529 -0.043 0 -0.11 -0.051
Ryo Ishikawa $7,100 $4,700 $11,300 0.291 -1.539 -0.03 0 -0.126 -0.052
Louis Oosthuizen $9,700 $9,000 $16,500 1.634 2.449 -0.158 0 0 -0.053
Brian Stuard $6,900 $5,000 $11,600 0.576 0.505 -0.022 0 -0.155 -0.059
Dustin Johnson $12,500 $11,800 $20,700 2.677 3.311 -0.013 -0.285 0.114 -0.061
Marc Leishman $7,800 $7,300 $15,200 1.509 1.804 0.028 0 -0.215 -0.062
Hudson Swafford $6,900 $6,200 $13,800 0.808 1.905 0.171 -0.386 0.02 -0.065
Jason Day $10,100 $10,500 $17,400 2.733 1.782 0.102 0 -0.3 -0.066
Byeong Hun An $8,000 $7,500 $14,800 1.156 1.501 -0.23 0 0 -0.077
Russell Henley $8,300 $7,500 $16,000 1.232 2.853 0.323 0 -0.562 -0.08
Matt Every $6,000 $4,500 NA -0.51 -1.151 -0.533 0 0.262 -0.09
Greg Chalmers $7,100 $4,600 $10,800 -0.088 0.425 0.013 -0.063 -0.255 -0.102
Geoff Ogilvy $7,000 $5,500 $11,900 0.404 -0.149 0.396 -0.228 -0.484 -0.105
Rory Sabbatini $6,400 $4,800 $11,300 0.481 -0.75 -0.293 0 -0.051 -0.115
Brian Gay $6,800 $5,500 $13,000 0.084 1.777 -0.317 0 -0.047 -0.121
Freddie Jacobson $7,200 $5,500 $11,300 0.788 -0.124 -0.486 -0.044 0.162 -0.123
James Hahn $7,500 $5,500 $12,600 0.699 0.671 -0.082 0.124 -0.417 -0.125
Steven Alker $6,300 $4,500 $10,800 0.08 -0.518 -0.405 0 0 -0.135
Steve Wheatcroft $7,000 $4,500 $10,900 0.361 0.151 0.15 0 -0.563 -0.138
Andrew Loupe $6,400 $4,600 $10,900 0.01 0.552 0.03 0.462 -0.908 -0.139
J.B. Holmes $7,900 $8,800 $14,900 1.454 0.857 0.075 0 -0.531 -0.152
Morgan Hoffmann $6,700 $5,600 $13,300 0.523 0.421 0.038 0 -0.509 -0.157
Keegan Bradley $6,900 $6,900 $13,900 1.443 0.918 0.16 -0.379 -0.261 -0.16
Stuart Appleby $6,300 $4,500 $10,700 0.442 -1.865 -0.13 0 -0.354 -0.162
Brett Stegmaier $6,500 $4,700 $10,800 0.066 -1.969 -0.627 0 0.123 -0.168
Bud Cauley $7,800 $6,400 $15,400 0.953 1.324 0.074 0 -0.644 -0.19
Jason Kokrak $7,400 $5,000 $12,100 1.071 0.152 -0.351 -0.674 0.396 -0.21
Martin Flores $6,800 $4,600 $11,100 0.639 0.113 -0.387 -0.01 -0.247 -0.215
Tag Ridings $6,800 $4,900 $11,400 -0.266 0.782 0 0 -0.647 -0.216
Carl Pettersson $6,600 $4,500 $10,900 0.206 -0.029 0.188 -0.355 -0.485 -0.218
Peter Malnati $6,900 $4,800 $10,800 -0.19 -0.414 -0.971 0 0.292 -0.226
Cameron Tringale $6,700 $5,600 $11,800 0.926 0.247 0.234 -0.04 -0.885 -0.23
Jamie Lovemark $7,500 $6,000 $12,600 0.876 1.163 -0.445 0 -0.397 -0.281
Robert Streb $7,500 $6,000 $12,200 1.121 0.507 0.124 -0.561 -0.427 -0.288
Angel Cabrera $7,100 $5,100 $11,300 0.238 -0.184 0.292 -0.501 -0.709 -0.306
Ken Duke $6,700 $4,500 $10,800 -0.043 -1.157 -0.171 -0.816 0.054 -0.311
D.A. Points $7,500 $5,600 $12,500 0.009 1.458 -0.358 -0.365 -0.329 -0.351
Jhonattan Vegas $7,600 $6,500 $12,900 0.766 1.277 -0.033 -0.497 -0.695 -0.408
Seung-Yul Noh $7,600 $6,300 $13,700 0.728 0.665 -0.281 -0.559 -0.65 -0.497

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.