Searching for a Specialist: BMW Championship
The PGA TOUR heads to Conway Farms for the third time in the last five years (2013, 2015).
We will take a look at who fits the course this week in Chicago, but first let’s review how last week went. Well, actually it was two weeks ago. Our specialists picked up finishes of T4, T35, and T73 while the GPP-only Hudson Swafford grabbed a top 15, as well. Certainly some good in there and nothing horrendous, so let’s try to replicate or improve upon that this week.
Looking at this week’s course we will look at performance on bentgrass greens, less-than-driver courses, and strong-field events before finishing up with performance in the summer and performance in the FedExCup Playoffs.
Here we go…
Bentgrass Greens
This week’s course features bentgrass greens, and they generally get them cooking in terms of green speeds. FAST.
Anyone that grew up on the West Coast, Midwest, or Northeast (or Europe) will have a small edge this week, as they generally take a liking to bentgrass greens.
The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists are:
Xander Schauffele (2.227 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.169 sg:total)
Kevin Tway (0.789 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.315 sg:total)
Ian Poulter (1.662 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.299 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.557 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.235 sg:total)
Danny Lee (1.31 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.008 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.02 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.736 sg:total)
Russell Henley (1.501 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.223 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (1.896 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.618 sg:total)
Anirban Lahiri (0.976 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.76 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.296 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.119 sg:total)
Another week of sample size, and Xander is still shining on bentgrass. This kind of split is not sustainable in the long run, but at this point we can say with confidence that Schauffele prefers playing on bentgrass greens.
On the other side, we have Lucas Glover who continues to only show up on bermuda. His T30 at the Dell Tech was actually one of his best performances on bentgrass since 2014. I will gladly let him slip through the cracks.
Less-than-Driver Courses
Back in 2013, Jordan Spieth had this to say about Conway Farms, “…as far as tee to green I’m not hitting a lot of drivers this week, and there are still plenty of wedge opportunities.”
He even threw out Hilton Head as a comparison which I thought was a little extreme, but who am I to argue with one of the top 5 golfers in the world.
There are plenty of holes that require distance this week but Conway Farms is definitely a course where you can leave your driver in the bag for three-fourths of the round and not lose any edge.
The 10 Less-than-Driver Specialists:
Wesley Bryan (1.901 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.806 sg:total)
Ollie Schniederjans (1.612 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.01 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.265 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.736 sg:total)
Kevin Na (2.214 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.701 sg:total)
Jamie Lovemark (1.499 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.057 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.892 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.479 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.757 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.366 sg:total)
Scott Brown (1.059 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.731 sg:total)
Anirban Lahiri (1.067 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.76 sg:total)
Bill Haas (1.988 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.701 sg:total)
Much like Schauffele in the bentgrass deparment, Wes Bryan stands out like a sore thumb. His performance on less-than-driver courses is through the roof. Unfortunately, nothing else about the course profile sets up that great for him (unlike Schauffele).
As you’d expect on a course that allows you to leave driver in your bag, Dustin Johnson loses some of his edge. That being said, there are definitely holes that would let DJ unleash the driver, but that is very dependant on the weather and course setup.
Strong Field Events
This week is the third event of the Playoffs, so you know the field is loaded with top-tier names. It’s the top 70 golfers remaining. You better bring your A game.
The Top 10 Strong Field Specialists are:
Sung Kang (1.54 sg:strong vs. 1.055 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.156 sg:strong vs. 0.736 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.723 sg:strong vs. 1.387 sg:total)
Ollie Schniederjans (1.288 sg:strong vs. 1.01 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.051 sg:strong vs. 0.803 sg:total)
Chez Reavie (1.374 sg:strong vs. 1.149 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.457 sg:strong vs. 2.235 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (1.345 sg:strong vs. 1.126 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (1.909 sg:strong vs. 1.706 sg:total)
Ian Poulter (1.498 sg:strong vs. 1.299 sg:total)
The Hatless Wonder (Ollie) continues to dip in this regard, but he’s still near the top of the split list.
Looking at overall performance in strong-field events, Rickie Fowler has gained over 500 strokes in 217 rounds played in strong fields (since 2014). That is bested only by Rory McIlroy, but Fowler is actually arriving in good form.
Performance in the Summer
Whether it is grass types, weather, or scheduling, some guys just peak in the summer months.
Let’s see how outperforms there baseline in the summer…
The Top 10 Summer Specialists:
Xander Schauffele (2.109 sg:summer vs. 1.169 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (1.368 sg:summer vs. 0.789 sg:total)
Henrik Stenson (3.105 sg:summer vs. 2.58 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.684 sg:summer vs. 2.235 sg:total)
Grayson Murray (1.219 sg:summer vs. 0.796 sg:total)
Kevin Tway (0.726 sg:summer vs. 0.315 sg:total)
Jason Day (3.094 sg:summer vs. 2.696 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.191 sg:summer vs. 0.803 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.501 sg:summer vs. 2.119 sg:total)
Bryson DeChambeau (1.245 sg:summer vs. 0.869 sg:total)
Once again, we have a (smaller sample) Schauffele leaping off the page.
There are four huge names on this list: Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, and Paul Casey. All four of them have a baseline SGT of 2+ but still manage to easily play their best golf in the summertime.
Paul Casey’s wife just gave birth to their second child, adding Nappy Factor to his favor. If you’re ANTI-NAPPY, then it would be a good idea to downgrade PC.
FedExCup Playoffs
We looked at performance in strong-field events but the FedExCup is sort of a different animal.
The majority of this still comes down to skill, but I think a big part is motivation, too. Over the past few years we’ve seen Sergio Garcia skip the first one/two events of the Playoffs and then just go through the motions when he returns. He’s clearly not dying to win this $10 million bonus check and he doesn’t put any value on the actual FedExCup trophy.
Instead of guessing who is motivated, let’s just have a look at who has let their play do the talking during the FEC Playoffs…
The Top 10 FedExCup Specialists:
Paul Casey (3.041 sg:FedExCup vs. 2.119 sg:total)
Hudson Swafford (1.651 sg:FedExCup vs. 0.833 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.596 sg:FedExCup vs. 0.803 sg:total)
Jason Day (3.465 sg:FedExCup vs. 2.696 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (2.086 sg:FedExCup vs. 1.387 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (2.513 sg:FedExCup vs. 1.851 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.283 sg:FedExCup vs. 2.666 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (2.294 sg:FedExCup vs. 1.706 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (1.993 sg:FedExCup vs. 1.516 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.632 sg:FedExCup vs. 2.235 sg:total)
If you’ve been following along to notice who has won the last 10 FEC events, it’s probably no surprise to see so many big names on this list.
The cream has certainly been rising to the top. That could be a coincidence due to small sample size or it could be a trend that golfers are now treating the Playoffs with respect, and actually giving their best effort.
The Specialists
Rickie Fowler
Kevin Chappell
Our specialist this week is Rickie Fowler!
The Big Puma arrives in stellar form but also looks to be a great course fit.
No driver, no problem? Since 2014, Fowler has racked up the most top-5 worthy performances (8) on less-than-driver courses, matching Henrik Stenson and Kevin Na with that total.
He also has nine top 20s in the FedExCup Playoffs since 2014, so he clearly keeps his eyes on the prize as the season winds down.
Chappell is riding high after qualifying for the Presidents Cup. He shoud be a huge asset in that event, especially when you consider that strong-field performance is one of his strongest assets. He doesn’t back down when facing off against the best.
The Anti-Specialists
The specialists above are positive in all five angles, but which golfers are the opposite and show a poor course fit?
Brendan Steele
Phil Mickelson
Steele does a lot of his best work early in the season, so I wouldn’t fault you if you just faded entirely.
Mickelon also loves the West Coast swing, but also claims to be feeling the best he has in years. Was that all talk to ensure Stricker used one of his captain’s picks on him or is Mickelson really energized? We will see. I wouldn’t say Mickelson is a must-fade by any means, but I would limit or lower my exposure based on this course fit. He has finished outside the top 30 in both trips to Conway Farms. At the same time he is a birdie machine and he’s priced near the bottom of the board this week. A tough call.
Viewing the Data
I don’t want this article to just be a narrowed down list each week with only the specialists looking capable of success.
Another way you could view the table, is to incorporate baseline performance and form into the equation.
A simple equation could be RANK OF BASELINE PERFORMANCE + RANK OF FORM + RANK OF SPECIALIST RATING. That would create a top-15 list that looks like this:
Rickie Fowler
Henrik Stenson
Jason Day
Paul Casey
Justin Thomas
Matt Kuchar
Jordan Spieth
Zach Johnson
Jon Rahm
Kevin Chappell
Ian Poulter
Dustin Johnson
Patrick Reed
Xander Schauffele
Daniel Berger
Making sure baseline performance and recent form is included in the equation is a good way to keep things balanced. Course fit is the idea of this article, but it is not the only thing that matters. We don’t want to drop all our eggs into the Jhonattan Vegas basket or go heavy on Sung Kang. Both should like the course, but both need a big improvement over the baseline to stay in the mix for the entire week.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),
Form looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro).
| Golfer | DK | FD | FDRFT | SG:Total | Form | Bent | Summer | FedExCup | Strong Field | LT Driver | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | $6,900 | $5,800 | $12,800 | 1.169 | 50.371 | 1.058 | 0.94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,700 | $9,200 | $17,900 | 2.235 | 79.133 | 0.322 | 0.448 | 0.396 | 0.221 | 0.242 | 0.326 |
| Kevin Chappell | $8,400 | $6,400 | $14,500 | 1.387 | 55.226 | 0.043 | 0.301 | 0.699 | 0.336 | 0.143 | 0.304 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,300 | $5,500 | $12,700 | 0.803 | 42.11 | -0.144 | 0.389 | 0.793 | 0.248 | 0.216 | 0.3 |
| Paul Casey | $9,200 | $9,000 | $17,000 | 2.119 | 77.08 | 0.177 | 0.382 | 0.922 | 0.107 | -0.163 | 0.285 |
| Jason Day | $9,600 | $9,100 | $17,200 | 2.696 | 56.08 | -0.047 | 0.398 | 0.769 | 0.06 | 0.068 | 0.25 |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,000 | $4,900 | $12,100 | 0.833 | 40.241 | 0.131 | 0.246 | 0.818 | 0.084 | -0.261 | 0.204 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,400 | $5,500 | $12,900 | 0.736 | 20.802 | 0.284 | 0.178 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.063 | 0.189 |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $7,500 | $5,900 | $12,400 | 1.01 | 16.683 | -0.203 | 0.168 | 0 | 0.279 | 0.603 | 0.169 |
| Henrik Stenson | $8,900 | $8,500 | $16,400 | 2.58 | 81.783 | 0.029 | 0.525 | 0.146 | -0.034 | 0.125 | 0.158 |
| Ian Poulter | $8,100 | $6,000 | $12,700 | 1.299 | 67.715 | 0.363 | -0.084 | 0 | 0.199 | 0.066 | 0.109 |
| Sung Kang | $7,100 | $4,600 | $11,400 | 1.055 | 19.632 | -0.084 | -0.136 | 0 | 0.485 | 0.124 | 0.078 |
| Daniel Berger | $7,500 | $7,300 | $14,400 | 1.618 | 40.745 | 0.278 | -0.187 | 0.084 | 0.114 | 0.092 | 0.076 |
| Justin Thomas | $10,300 | $9,700 | $18,200 | 1.851 | 70.78 | -0.21 | 0.2 | 0.663 | 0.138 | -0.424 | 0.073 |
| Zach Johnson | $8,300 | $6,400 | $13,900 | 1.67 | 54.359 | 0.112 | 0.295 | 0.065 | 0.101 | -0.216 | 0.071 |
| Grayson Murray | $7,000 | $5,300 | $12,000 | 0.796 | 37.248 | -0.041 | 0.423 | 0 | -0.058 | 0 | 0.065 |
| Danny Lee | $7,200 | $5,100 | $11,000 | 1.008 | -1.914 | 0.302 | -0.01 | 0.096 | -0.354 | 0.231 | 0.053 |
| Kevin Tway | $7,400 | $4,700 | $11,600 | 0.315 | 23.616 | 0.474 | 0.411 | 0 | 0 | -0.635 | 0.05 |
| Russell Henley | $7,600 | $5,800 | $13,200 | 1.223 | 34.488 | 0.279 | -0.033 | -0.184 | -0.077 | 0.246 | 0.046 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,600 | $5,000 | $12,500 | 1.466 | 13.093 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0 | 0.114 | -0.245 | 0.046 |
| Sean O’Hair | $7,000 | $4,500 | $11,500 | 0.81 | 14.45 | -0.131 | -0.158 | 0.342 | -0.149 | 0.282 | 0.037 |
| Robert Streb | $7,100 | $5,000 | $12,000 | 1.138 | 36.428 | 0.059 | 0.209 | 0.201 | 0.143 | -0.429 | 0.037 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $8,800 | $7,800 | $15,300 | 1.706 | 37.28 | -0.274 | 0.029 | 0.589 | 0.203 | -0.367 | 0.036 |
| Bud Cauley | $7,500 | $5,700 | $11,800 | 1.099 | 29.236 | 0.144 | 0.225 | 0 | -0.089 | -0.104 | 0.035 |
| Matt Kuchar | $8,200 | $8,200 | $15,800 | 2.14 | 79.079 | 0.152 | 0.045 | -0.222 | 0.162 | 0.027 | 0.033 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,300 | $5,800 | $13,200 | 1.47 | 43.311 | 0.135 | 0.186 | -0.115 | 0.056 | -0.127 | 0.027 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $6,900 | $4,600 | $11,100 | 0.76 | 6.117 | 0.216 | -0.244 | 0 | -0.144 | 0.307 | 0.027 |
| Brian Harman | $7,000 | $5,600 | $12,400 | 1.145 | 23.058 | 0.147 | 0.107 | 0.057 | 0.009 | -0.22 | 0.02 |
| Wesley Bryan | $7,200 | $5,000 | $11,200 | 0.806 | 7.944 | -0.273 | -0.144 | 0 | -0.58 | 1.095 | 0.02 |
| Adam Hadwin | $7,100 | $5,500 | $12,300 | 1.126 | 15.494 | -0.014 | -0.127 | 0 | 0.219 | 0.016 | 0.019 |
| Stewart Cink | $7,400 | $5,100 | $11,800 | 1.112 | 15.23 | 0.127 | 0.012 | 0 | 0.16 | -0.221 | 0.016 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $7,200 | $5,200 | $12,100 | 0.869 | 35.965 | 0.153 | 0.376 | 0 | 0.009 | -0.47 | 0.014 |
| Bill Haas | $7,400 | $6,300 | $12,600 | 1.701 | 31.837 | 0.133 | -0.032 | -0.347 | -0.016 | 0.286 | 0.005 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,300 | $5,400 | $12,200 | 1.057 | 40.848 | -0.088 | -0.286 | 0 | -0.049 | 0.442 | 0.004 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,000 | $8,400 | $16,200 | 1.721 | 71.874 | 0.053 | 0.214 | 0.022 | -0.087 | -0.252 | -0.01 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,600 | $6,400 | $13,100 | 1.731 | 48.196 | 0.018 | 0.294 | -0.08 | -0.054 | -0.249 | -0.014 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,200 | $6,900 | $13,400 | 1.366 | 44.372 | -0.081 | 0.077 | -0.481 | -0.023 | 0.391 | -0.023 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $6,900 | $5,000 | $11,200 | 0.886 | 27.241 | 0.03 | 0.336 | 0 | -0.489 | 0 | -0.025 |
| Jon Rahm | $10,500 | $9,200 | $18,000 | 2.316 | 78.634 | -0.03 | -0.041 | 0 | -0.06 | 0 | -0.026 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,100 | $6,100 | $13,900 | 1.516 | 39.432 | -0.218 | 0.013 | 0.477 | -0.132 | -0.286 | -0.029 |
| Scott Brown | $7,000 | $5,400 | $11,600 | 0.731 | 22.197 | -0.101 | 0.029 | -0.603 | 0.197 | 0.328 | -0.03 |
| Justin Rose | $8,500 | $7,700 | $16,000 | 2.375 | 48.518 | 0.099 | 0.039 | -0.106 | -0.032 | -0.158 | -0.032 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,500 | $5,600 | $11,700 | 0.789 | 6.148 | -0.015 | 0.579 | 0 | -0.257 | -0.487 | -0.036 |
| Rory McIlroy | $9,400 | $8,700 | $16,500 | 2.994 | 46.598 | 0.139 | 0.143 | -0.411 | -0.009 | -0.085 | -0.045 |
| Kevin Na | $7,900 | $6,100 | $14,300 | 1.701 | 48.953 | -0.212 | -0.152 | -0.281 | -0.091 | 0.513 | -0.045 |
| Billy Horschel | $6,900 | $5,300 | $11,700 | 1.241 | -10.936 | -0.217 | -0.087 | 0.291 | -0.127 | -0.102 | -0.048 |
| Francesco Molinari | $7,400 | $6,300 | $13,300 | 1.791 | 28.777 | -0.113 | -0.189 | 0 | 0.129 | -0.076 | -0.05 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,800 | $10,200 | $19,600 | 2.692 | 91.08 | 0.053 | -0.067 | -0.309 | -0.13 | 0.144 | -0.062 |
| Cameron Smith | $7,000 | $4,500 | $11,400 | 0.736 | -8.137 | -0.445 | -0.315 | 0 | -0.137 | 0.529 | -0.074 |
| Charley Hoffman | $7,600 | $6,600 | $14,000 | 1.481 | 78.307 | 0.039 | -0.142 | -0.476 | 0.054 | 0.062 | -0.092 |
| Jason Dufner | $7,800 | $7,400 | $13,200 | 1.479 | 43.023 | -0.236 | -0.401 | -0.092 | -0.152 | 0.412 | -0.094 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,600 | $6,700 | $14,700 | 1.465 | 42.032 | -0.495 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.099 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,500 | $5,900 | $12,200 | 1.149 | 49.684 | 0.004 | 0.16 | 0 | 0.226 | -0.901 | -0.103 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,500 | $10,100 | $19,300 | 2.666 | 79.526 | -0.122 | 0.065 | 0.617 | 0.132 | -1.236 | -0.109 |
| Lucas Glover | $7,200 | $5,500 | $12,400 | 0.863 | 39.238 | -0.651 | -0.147 | 0 | 0.151 | 0.069 | -0.115 |
| James Hahn | $7,300 | $4,900 | $11,900 | 0.777 | 21.371 | 0.036 | -0.158 | -0.157 | 0.165 | -0.537 | -0.13 |
| Luke List | $6,900 | $4,700 | $11,200 | 1.23 | 20.336 | -0.16 | -0.558 | 0 | -0.147 | 0.163 | -0.14 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | $7,100 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 1.441 | 30.045 | -0.139 | -0.458 | 0 | -0.125 | 0 | -0.145 |
| Sergio Garcia | $8,700 | $8,300 | $14,900 | 2.397 | 17.154 | 0.008 | -0.229 | -0.57 | 0.069 | -0.037 | -0.152 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,900 | $9,100 | $17,600 | 2.315 | 74.632 | 0.084 | -0.202 | -0.409 | -0.024 | -0.519 | -0.214 |
| Martin Laird | $6,900 | $5,300 | $11,500 | 1.07 | 16.294 | -0.239 | -0.058 | 0 | -0.163 | -0.627 | -0.217 |
| Pat Perez | $7,600 | $5,200 | $13,000 | 1.181 | 23.691 | -0.329 | -0.383 | 0 | -0.001 | -0.409 | -0.224 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,700 | $7,100 | $15,500 | 1.666 | 51.078 | 0.153 | -0.117 | -1.253 | 0.053 | -0.031 | -0.239 |
| Tony Finau | $7,800 | $7,500 | $13,300 | 1.516 | 48.516 | 0.137 | -0.038 | -0.724 | -0.145 | -0.522 | -0.258 |
| Webb Simpson | $7,700 | $6,500 | $14,100 | 1.485 | 55.941 | 0.025 | 0.008 | -0.686 | -0.373 | -0.269 | -0.259 |
| Charles Howell III | $7,100 | $5,200 | $11,200 | 1.277 | 4.965 | 0.05 | -0.481 | -0.409 | -0.459 | -0.062 | -0.272 |
| Ryan Moore | $7,400 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 1.495 | 18.168 | -0.293 | -0.041 | -1.004 | -0.296 | 0.108 | -0.305 |
| Phil Mickelson | $7,300 | $7,200 | $14,200 | 1.941 | 23.571 | -0.016 | -0.232 | -0.851 | -0.084 | -0.573 | -0.351 |
| Brooks Koepka | $9,100 | $8,600 | $16,300 | 1.965 | 53.58 | 0.145 | -0.018 | -1.195 | -0.03 | -0.662 | -0.352 |
| Brendan Steele | $7,500 | $5,500 | $11,900 | 1.467 | 4.661 | -0.461 | -0.507 | -0.863 | -0.063 | -0.118 | -0.403 |