Searching for a Specialist: BMW Championship

Just two events remain in the 2017-18 season as we head to the Philly area for the BMW Championship.

The course is Aronimink Golf Club which has a few years of history but none since 2011. It’s also been restored since then so we should lean on course fit rather than course history.

Reviewing last week, our specialists were 4-for-5 with Brooks and Casey racking up top 25s. Still some room for improvement. Abraham Ancer and Peter Uihlein were also leaping off the page in terms of Specialist Rating and they both delivered top 15s. An important reminder that you don’t need to be positive in all angles to still be a great course fit.

This week we look at performance on Bentgrass Greens, Long Courses, Strong Field Events, Par 70 Courses, and Performance in the Summer.

Sticking with the theme of the Playoffs, we have another very similar search as the last two weeks. Anyone that has shown up well over the last two weeks should continue to grade out well.

Here we go …

Bentgrass Greens

Another summer event, another course with bentgrass greens.

It makes sense because bentgrass is featured heavily in climates with cruel winters. That means the PGA TOUR waits until summer to visit most of these northern states.

The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists:

Abraham Ancer (1.564 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.891 sg:total)
Peter Uihlein (2.002 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.405 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.653 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.286 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.86 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.501 sg:total)
Justin Rose (3.035 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.735 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.689 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.398 sg:total)
Ryan Armour (1.189 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.934 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (2.279 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.041 sg:total)
Andrew Putnam (1.002 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.807 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (2.975 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.8 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on bentgrass since 2014 are Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, and Tony Finau.

Last week we had four golfers from the top-10 list end up grabbing a top 15. Let’s see how they fare this week.

J.J. Spaun is the only golfer that loses more than half a stroke on bentgrass, compared to his baseline (NOT GOOD).

Long Courses

Aronimink is less than 7,300 yards on paper, but it’s a par 70.

When you account for the hole lengths, it’s pretty long. There are three par 3s over 200 yards and five par 4s over 455 yards.

The Top 10 Long Course Specialists:

Keith Mitchell (1.673 sg:long vs. 1.074 sg:total)
Ryan Palmer (1.838 sg:long vs. 1.272 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.639 sg:long vs. 1.216 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (1.708 sg:long vs. 1.298 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.664 sg:long vs. 2.286 sg:total)
Patrick Cantlay (2.709 sg:long vs. 2.34 sg:total)
Tyrrell Hatton (2.308 sg:long vs. 1.945 sg:total)
Abraham Ancer (1.251 sg:long vs. 0.891 sg:total)
Andrew Landry (0.991 sg:long vs. 0.695 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (2.214 sg:long vs. 1.983 sg:total)

Article Image

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on long courses since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Paul Casey, and Patrick Reed.

Palmer disappointed last week on a lengthy, TPC Boston layout, but that doesn’t mean he should be completely overlooked.

Keith Mitchell is a monster off-the-tee while #3 on the list (Cam Smith) gets it done on long courses without piping 330-yard drives.

Strong Fields

As the Playoffs continue, we will continue to see strong fields.

Let’s dive into the numbers to identify some potential big-game hunters.

The Top 10 Strong Field Specialists:

Bryson DeChambeau (2.156 sg:strong vs. 1.723 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.801 sg:strong vs. 1.398 sg:total)
Peter Uihlein (1.739 sg:strong vs. 1.405 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (1.815 sg:strong vs. 1.49 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (1.254 sg:strong vs. 0.981 sg:total)
C.T. Pan (1.338 sg:strong vs. 1.11 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (1.999 sg:strong vs. 1.826 sg:total)
Tony Finau (2.157 sg:strong vs. 1.991 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (2.928 sg:strong vs. 2.8 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained against strong fields since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Rose.

Schauffele hasn’t impressed over the last few weeks, but he’s still more than 1/4 of a shot better than his baseline against strong fields. With four guaranteed rounds, that’s a nice bump.

Bubba Watson is an interesting case because his performance in majors is pretty bad, but his strong-field numbers still grade out well. I guess he loves Playoff and WGC events.

Par 70 Courses

Aronimink Golf Club has just two par 5s, so it’s important to spread your scoring and not rely on the par 5s for all your scoring.

That tends to leads us toward “grinders”, so let’s see who grades out well in this department.

The Top 10 Par 70 Specialists:

Ryan Armour (1.595 sg:par70 vs. 0.934 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.756 sg:par70 vs. 2.286 sg:total)
Tiger Woods (2.389 sg:par70 vs. 1.988 sg:total)
Webb Simpson (2.343 sg:par70 vs. 1.948 sg:total)
Chez Reavie (1.872 sg:par70 vs. 1.485 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (1.861 sg:par70 vs. 1.49 sg:total)
C.T. Pan (1.478 sg:par70 vs. 1.11 sg:total)
Tyrrell Hatton (2.283 sg:par70 vs. 1.945 sg:total)
Abraham Ancer (1.199 sg:par70 vs. 0.891 sg:total)
Austin Cook (1.754 sg:par70 vs. 1.488 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on par 70s since 2014 are Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed, and Jason Day.

This top-10 list is loaded with elite iron players. When you play par 70s you have to score on the par 3s and/or par 4s, so that makes sense.

Golfers like Phil Mickelson, Chesson Hadley, Byeong Hun An, Pat Perez, and Adam Hadwin all see a major dropoff on par-70 layouts. That doesn’t mean you have to fade them, but definitely consider a fade if you were already on the fence.

Summer Season

During these summer months, we see a lot of bentgrass greens, warm weather, and plenty of big events.

Let’s see who shines in the sunshine.

The Top 10 Summer Specialists:

Abraham Ancer (1.57 sg:summer vs. 0.891 sg:total)
C.T. Pan (1.656 sg:summer vs. 1.11 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (2.006 sg:summer vs. 1.49 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (2.439 sg:summer vs. 2.041 sg:total)
Tiger Woods (2.358 sg:summer vs. 1.988 sg:total)
Zach Johnson (2.168 sg:summer vs. 1.865 sg:total)
Brice Garnett (0.831 sg:summer vs. 0.535 sg:total)
Ryan Armour (1.203 sg:summer vs. 0.934 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (1.547 sg:summer vs. 1.298 sg:total)
Keegan Bradley (1.761 sg:summer vs. 1.59 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in the summer since 2014 are Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, and Paul Casey.

It’s definitely a little early in their careers to label them the Kings of Summer, but golfers like Ancer, Pan, and Schauffele are all building elite resumes in the summer.

Golfers like Luke List, Chesson Hadley, Patton Kizzire, CH3, and Steele continue to grade out poorly here. They do most of their damage in the fall and winter.

The Specialist

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Kyle Stanley
Paul Casey

The specialist this week is Brooks Koepka!

Article Image

If you’ve been following along for a while, these names should look very familiar. We’ve seen a lot of similar setups recently which has led to a lot of weekly overlap in the last month. This week, we have three repeat specialists from last week (Brooks, Xander, Casey).

Honing in on Brooks Koepka, he is +0.36 or greater in three of the five angles this week. Anything over 0.25 for a given angle is pretty significant. For Brooks, he seems to shine on lengthy, par 70s with bentgrass greens. That’s the perfect recipe to excel at Aronimink Golf Club.

The same can be said for Xander who has wins at The Old White TPC and East Lake. Both share a lot of overlap with this week’s layout. Old White = Bentgrass, par 70, Summer while East Lake = Par 70, Long, Strong Field, Summer.

Kyle Stanley crushes in this part of the country, so it makes sense that he grades out well on bentgrass and the summer. Both angles are heavily featured when it comes to Northeastern courses.

Lastly, we have Paul Casey. If we look at his top-7 finishes since 2012 in terms of total strokes gained, we have one in Indiana, two in Connecticut, and one in Massachusetts. I’d say that he fares well as the TOUR heads north.

The Anti-Specialists

We have a few golfers that qualify as specialists this week, but who does the opposite, grading out negatively in all of the angles?

Patton Kizzire
Brendan Steele
Pat Perez

Kizzire has really faded since the fall. Steele is in a massive slump. Perez is coming off a WD as he became a father last week. An easy fade on all three, in my opinion.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Brooks Koepka
Dustin Johnson
Justin Rose
Tony Finau
Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay
Tiger Woods
Jordan Spieth
Tommy Fleetwood
Rickie Fowler
Rory Mcilroy
Tyrrell Hatton
Jason Day
Francesco Molinari
Adam Scott
Webb Simpson
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Reed
Zach Johnson
Bryson DeChambeau

Nothing too crazy here. Fowler is a bit of a wildcard as he returns from an oblique injury. ZJ is also trending down but grades out as “above average” in all three categories.

Our specialist (Koepka) also grades out as #1 on this list. Love to see that.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made small adjustments for sample sizes but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at SGTotal, FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Bentgrass Long Strong Summer Par 70 Specialist Rating Simple Rating
Abraham Ancer $6,800 $7,900 $12,600 0.891 0 37.63 0.677 0.362 0 0.683 0.312 0.407 266
Brooks Koepka $10,500 $12,100 $16,900 2.286 0 71.202 0.368 0.379 0.105 0.126 0.47 0.29 52
Xander Schauffele $7,700 $9,300 $13,100 1.49 0 25.087 0.032 0.121 0.328 0.518 0.372 0.274 231
C.T. Pan $6,900 $8,300 $13,300 1.11 0 43.866 0.099 -0.047 0.231 0.549 0.37 0.24 232
Peter Uihlein $6,800 $8,200 $12,200 1.405 0 17.885 0.601 0.124 0.339 0 0 0.213 261
Kyle Stanley $7,500 $8,500 $13,800 1.398 0.25 46.73 0.293 0.141 0.406 0.022 0.077 0.188 201
Ryan Armour $6,400 $7,100 $10,700 0.934 0 12.882 0.257 -0.015 -0.327 0.271 0.663 0.17 317
Tiger Woods $9,200 $11,300 $15,800 1.988 0.083 61.792 0.138 0.077 -0.178 0.372 0.404 0.162 85
Zach Johnson $7,100 $9,300 $13,200 1.865 0 53.716 0.027 0.182 -0.012 0.304 0.118 0.124 129
Tyrrell Hatton $7,700 $9,200 $14,300 1.945 0 65.576 -0.23 0.367 0.082 0.058 0.342 0.124 97
Francesco Molinari $8,800 $10,800 $15,500 2.041 0 55.165 0.24 -0.058 -0.015 0.401 0.046 0.123 98
Keith Mitchell $6,500 $7,300 $11,400 1.074 0 26.122 0 0.601 0 0 0 0.12 281
Andrew Putnam $6,500 $7,200 $10,700 0.807 0 18.125 0.197 0.215 0 0.008 0.137 0.111 315
Jason Kokrak $6,900 $7,700 $11,700 1.298 0 44.654 -0.254 0.411 0.083 0.25 -0.031 0.092 231
Tony Finau $9,500 $10,800 $15,800 1.991 0 79.752 0.087 0.149 0.168 -0.026 0.022 0.08 71
Paul Casey $8,000 $10,300 $14,200 2.368 0 33.742 0.051 0.08 0.051 0.146 0.069 0.079 136
Bubba Watson $7,600 $10,000 $13,900 1.826 0 21.926 -0.17 0.136 0.176 0.029 0.175 0.069 204
Rickie Fowler $9,000 $10,200 $15,600 2.501 0.335 46.532 0.359 -0.031 0.117 0.071 -0.234 0.057 89
Ian Poulter $7,100 $8,600 $12,700 1.546 0 40.194 0.136 -0.106 0.075 0.06 0.112 0.056 196
Kevin Na $7,200 $8,600 $12,600 1.723 -0.036 36.504 -0.186 0.116 -0.007 0.11 0.231 0.053 190
Bryson DeChambeau $10,000 $12,000 $16,600 1.723 0 65.742 -0.09 0.173 0.437 0.091 -0.378 0.047 130
Brandt Snedeker $7,700 $9,300 $13,800 1.785 0.44 43.245 0.132 -0.007 -0.27 0.17 0.139 0.033 168
Patrick Reed $8,200 $10,700 $14,200 1.983 0 56.026 0.012 0.233 -0.015 0.093 -0.173 0.03 117
Patrick Cantlay $8,500 $9,900 $15,200 2.34 0 67.292 -0.108 0.37 0.126 0.112 -0.363 0.028 75
Adam Scott $8,700 $9,700 $15,100 2.176 0.893 56.292 -0.198 0.116 0.125 0.042 0.042 0.025 103
Justin Rose $11,200 $11,600 $17,300 2.735 1.259 56.718 0.3 -0.157 0.034 -0.083 -0.005 0.018 69
Justin Thomas $10,700 $11,800 $16,800 2.38 0 66.237 -0.144 0.152 0.107 -0.065 0.016 0.013 71
Si Woo Kim $6,700 $7,800 $11,700 0.798 0 11.275 0.039 -0.105 -0.007 0.153 -0.035 0.009 351
Jon Rahm $8,900 $10,500 $15,400 2.48 0 31.533 0.081 -0.018 -0.115 0.03 0.065 0.009 139
Kevin Kisner $7,300 $8,700 $12,600 1.52 0 46.202 -0.026 -0.217 -0.077 0.161 0.201 0.008 205
Jason Day $9,300 $11,100 $15,700 2.75 0.583 46.004 -0.158 -0.13 -0.068 0.15 0.187 -0.004 97
Jordan Spieth $9,400 $11,400 $15,900 2.76 0 52.792 0.144 -0.22 -0.095 0.153 -0.006 -0.005 85
Gary Woodland $7,800 $9,400 $13,700 1.66 0.107 56.252 -0.114 0.09 -0.1 0.075 0.011 -0.008 164
Aaron Wise $7,000 $7,600 $13,000 1.435 0 31.455 -0.25 0.116 0.07 0 0 -0.013 257
Chez Reavie $6,600 $7,600 $11,100 1.485 -0.434 20.866 -0.253 -0.049 -0.039 -0.123 0.388 -0.015 275
Ryan Palmer $6,600 $7,600 $11,300 1.272 0 16.518 -0.169 0.567 0.061 -0.27 -0.282 -0.019 316
Keegan Bradley $7,300 $9,000 $12,400 1.59 -0.101 37.099 0.14 -0.062 -0.078 0.172 -0.286 -0.023 220
Chris Kirk $6,700 $8,300 $11,800 1.302 0.75 40.116 -0.263 0.033 -0.045 -0.101 0.242 -0.027 262
Louis Oosthuizen $7,500 $9,500 $13,500 1.926 0 39.472 -0.207 0.125 0.097 -0.093 -0.057 -0.027 181
Webb Simpson $8,100 $10,700 $14,600 1.948 0.703 69.901 -0.155 -0.138 -0.221 -0.037 0.396 -0.031 113
Henrik Stenson $7,600 $10,300 $14,200 2.632 0 26.771 -0.125 -0.237 0.02 0.002 0.176 -0.033 151
Emiliano Grillo $7,400 $8,400 $13,400 1.699 0 26.737 -0.049 -0.032 0.045 -0.12 -0.04 -0.039 232
Marc Leishman $7,900 $9,200 $14,200 1.945 0.122 40.292 0.149 0.056 -0.052 -0.132 -0.272 -0.05 173
Rory Mcilroy $10,300 $11,500 $16,700 2.8 0 53.883 0.176 -0.147 0.129 -0.067 -0.402 -0.062 90
Beau Hossler $6,900 $8,100 $12,200 1.344 0 11.917 -0.075 -0.222 0.048 0 -0.104 -0.071 324
Brice Garnett $6,300 $7,200 $11,100 0.535 0 25.928 -0.069 -0.081 -0.4 0.298 -0.103 -0.071 353
Brian Gay $6,600 $7,600 $11,000 1.038 0.31 29.102 -0.382 0.035 -0.021 -0.113 0.12 -0.072 311
Dustin Johnson $11,600 $12,400 $18,100 3.096 -0.178 76.698 -0.249 0.041 -0.028 -0.171 0.042 -0.073 55
Rafa Cabrera Bello $8,300 $10,200 $14,200 1.913 0 60.84 -0.078 -0.231 0.002 -0.155 0.079 -0.077 146
Austin Cook $6,700 $7,500 $11,100 1.488 0 36.004 -0.206 -0.191 -0.372 0.109 0.266 -0.079 261
Cameron Smith $7,800 $8,900 $14,500 1.216 0 54.076 -0.226 0.425 -0.083 -0.256 -0.314 -0.091 254
Brian Harman $6,700 $8,600 $11,400 1.428 0 14.737 0.051 -0.397 -0.026 -0.131 0.025 -0.096 310
Tommy Fleetwood $8,600 $11,200 $15,400 2.38 0 71.752 -0.292 0.01 -0.132 -0.283 0 -0.14 86
Alex Noren $7,400 $9,100 $12,700 1.755 0 26.366 -0.2 -0.378 -0.145 -0.007 0.016 -0.143 237
Hideki Matsuyama $9,700 $11,000 $15,700 2.38 0 57.285 0.079 -0.223 -0.091 -0.22 -0.269 -0.145 112
Ted Potter, Jr. $6,500 $7,100 $10,400 0.732 0 17.016 -0.183 -0.47 -0.108 -0.054 0.008 -0.161 371
Billy Horschel $8,000 $8,300 $13,900 1.38 -0.601 56.718 -0.37 -0.121 -0.291 -0.2 0.155 -0.165 233
Adam Hadwin $7,000 $8,500 $12,600 1.415 0 38.827 -0.269 0.171 0.075 -0.227 -0.604 -0.171 271
Luke List $7,000 $7,700 $12,100 1.578 0 38.067 -0.12 0.021 0.011 -0.552 -0.237 -0.175 241
Pat Perez $6,800 $8,100 $11,400 1.592 -0.019 22.597 -0.158 -0.107 -0.012 -0.208 -0.617 -0.22 266
Andrew Landry $6,400 $7,000 $10,600 0.695 0 2.95 -0.31 0.296 -0.815 -0.186 -0.09 -0.221 399
Scott Piercy $6,500 $7,000 $10,700 1.036 -0.428 3.623 -0.274 -0.263 -0.496 -0.284 0.093 -0.245 371
Chesson Hadley $6,300 $8,000 $11,000 0.981 0 4.486 -0.373 0.016 0.276 -0.56 -0.637 -0.256 376
J.J. Spaun $6,600 $7,100 $10,700 1.011 0 13.273 -0.615 0.064 -0.374 -0.268 -0.122 -0.263 366
Phil Mickelson $8,400 $10,200 $14,600 2.18 0 45.509 -0.17 -0.224 0.013 -0.391 -0.62 -0.278 166
Charles Howell III $6,900 $8,300 $11,400 1.541 0.537 1.379 -0.221 -0.08 -0.432 -0.689 0.015 -0.281 318
Byeong Hun An $7,100 $8,800 $12,400 1.524 0 51.252 0.137 -0.559 -0.192 -0.42 -0.644 -0.336 230
Brendan Steele $6,400 $7,400 $10,700 1.522 0 2.662 -0.483 -0.228 -0.233 -0.712 -0.37 -0.405 324
Patton Kizzire $6,300 $7,000 $10,200 0.76 0 16.729 -0.384 -0.337 -0.408 -0.636 -0.378 -0.429 383

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.