Searching for a Specialist: CareerBuilder
The search for a specialist returns and this week we head mainland to the CareerBuilder Challenge in La Quinta, California.
Last week Fabian Gomez tried to make the final list of specialists but I slashed his hopes and dreams because his baseline strokes gained was under field average. Oops! Still a good week, overall, so let’s see what pops out at the CB Challenge.
For our search this week we will look at performance on par 72 tracks, bermuda greens, and easy courses. We finish up with history at weak field events and baseline performance.
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Par 72 Courses
There are three courses in the rotation this week, but they are all par 72s which makes it easy on us gamers. That means plenty of par 5s on tap, which also means birdies and eagles will be flying left and right, given the ease of these venues.
The top 10 Par 72 Course specialists are listed below:
Erik Compton (0.89 sg:par72 vs. 0.023 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (1.34 sg:par72 vs. 0.748 sg:total)
Andrew Loupe (0.208 sg:par72 vs. -0.33 sg:total)
Chad Collins (0.588 sg:par72 vs. 0.074 sg:total)
Wes Roach (0.127 sg:par72 vs. -0.353 sg:total)
Scott Pinckney (0.175 sg:par72 vs. -0.293 sg:total)
Zach Johnson (1.42 sg:par72 vs. 0.961 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (0.463 sg:par72 vs. 0.028 sg:total)
Derek Fathauer (0.293 sg:par72 vs. -0.129 sg:total)
Kevin Na (1.447 sg:par72 vs. 1.076 sg:total)
A couple names to point out that we just lost.
First is Will Wilcox. We faded him last week because of his short course experience and this week it’s par 72 history. He’s missed the cu in five of his last 13 starts on par 72s. That’s just over 60 percent. That makes him risky, yet again.
Next is Brian Harman. Over his last 20 starts on par 72 courses, he sports just three top 25s! He’s missed the cut in 11 of those (55 percent missed cuts). You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know those numbers are bad.
Finally we look at Luke Donald. Over his last 18 starts on par 72 tracks, he owns just three top 25s. He’s only missed five cuts which is not horrendous, but we really want more upside out of our plays this week.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 66
Bermudagrass Greens
Last week we saw Fabian Gomez at second on the list of bermuda specialists. I can’t guarantee the winner will come from this list again, but you shouldn’t ignore it.
Of the 66 golfers remaining, there are 38 that qualify as bermuda specialists. Here are the 10 highest rated:
Pat Perez (1.025 sg:bermuda vs. 0.248 sg:total)
Matt Jones (0.94 sg:bermuda vs. 0.375 sg:total)
Blayne Barber (0.348 sg:bermuda vs. -0.208 sg:total)
Erik Compton (0.559 sg:bermuda vs. 0.023 sg:total)
Blake Adams (-0.043 sg:bermuda vs. -0.572 sg:total)
Rory Sabbatini (0.638 sg:bermuda vs. 0.15 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.041 sg:bermuda vs. -0.421 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (1.295 sg:bermuda vs. 0.867 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (0.927 sg:bermuda vs. 0.525 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (0.215 sg:bermuda vs. -0.17 sg:total)
This is where we lost Finau last week and we’ll say goodbye again this week. He’s posted top 25s in just 3-of-12 on bermuda and missed the cut in six of those. I will not be in full fade mode this week, because we have par 72 courses and Finau also sports some Q-School history at these venues. He’s still not a specialist, though.
Johnson Wagner is another we wave goodbye to. Over his last 24 events played on bermudagrass, he’s finished inside the top 30 just twice! Not only is his upside low, he’s missed the cut in 14 of those 24 starts. No thanks.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 38
Easy Courses
It takes a strong mind to go low consistently in a shootout on the PGA TOUR. There is no letting up, and you can’t get discouraged by stray bogeys. You have to hop right back on the birdie train.
Of our remaining golfers, these on the top 5 easy course specialists:
Charley Hoffman (1.587 sg:easy vs. 0.677 sg:total)
Justin Leonard (0.737 sg:easy vs. -0.137 sg:total)
Bill Haas (1.458 sg:easy vs. 0.843 sg:total)
Erik Compton (0.577 sg:easy vs. 0.023 sg:total)
Russell Henley (0.66 sg:easy vs. 0.181 sg:total)
Don’t look know, but that’s 3-for-3 for Erik Compton! I don’t think you’ll ever find another tournament where he pops out like this, so throw him in some GPPs while you can.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 22
Weak Field Events
Some golfers really shine when the pressure is off and they don’t play against the game’s biggest names. This week, the OWGR strength of field checks in at 222, which certainly qualifies as weak.
We just talked about Compton, but have to say goodbye due to his weak field performance. It was a good run. In addition, at this stage we lost Colt Knost, Andrew Loupe, Steve Wheatcroft, Chad Collins, and Francesco Molinari.
Molinari is by default because he hasn’t played the necessary 20 rounds to qualify as a weak field specialist. He still makes a great play, but is not our specialist.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 16
Baseline Performance
On full-field weeks like this one, we have the luxury of excluding golfers based on their overall skill level. The criteria to look at is Expected Srokes Gained:Total. This is how well a golfer performs versus the field, since the start of the 2013-14 season.
Last week we kicked out Fabian Gomez at this stage, because his SG:Total was just under zero. Hindsight is 20/20, but most weeks it is safe to exclude these names.
Looking at the current list of 16 golfers, we lose the following names below since their strokes gained is below field average.
Jhonattan Vegas
Bryce Molder
Justin Leonard
Peter Malnati
Ben Crane
Nick Taylor
Mark Wilson
The Specialists
Bill Haas
Charley Hoffman
Russell Henley
Boo Weekley
Rory Sabbatini
Robert Streb
Kevin Na
Seung-yul Noh
Jerry Kelly
The list above is also the final ranking for our specialists. That means Bill Haas is our specialist of the week!
Hold up, check the numbers, and we actually have a tie! Bill Haas and Charley Hoffman share the honors of this week’s specialist position. Very crazy to end up in a tie, given the amount of data involved.
Haas is a two-time winner of this event, so it passes the eye test. Regardless of the new courses added this year, he should still find himself in contention. Hoffman has a barrel-full of top 10s at this event so he also passes the eye test.
Check out the full Specialist Table for more detailed data. You can sort and filter to your heart’s desire. Best of luck in all your matchups this week.