Searching for a Specialist: CareerBuilder Challenge

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Welcome back to another specialist search.

Last week we suffered through a chalk disaster and the specialist search was not excluded from that disaster. Okay, it wasn’t a complete disaster but Chris Kirk and John Peterson missed the cut while Fabian Gomez and Zac Blair played all four rounds but didn’t help much in the grand scheme of things.

It was Shawn Stefani who provided the best value as a specialist last week while the GPP-only specialists Kevin Kisner and Boo Weekley provided a nice spark as well, for anyone that ignored their poor form to finish the fall.

Looking ahead to this week, we head to California for the CareerBuilder Challenge. For our specialists angles we will have a look at performance on Easy Courses, Bermuda Greens, Par 72 Tracks, and finish up with California specialists.

Here we go…

Easy Courses

Unlike most weeks, we actually have three courses on the docket. While this event has swapped out courses left and right, one key element remains. They are always set up easy.

The biggest reason for that is the pro-am part of the event. The tournament officials don’t want the amateurs hacking it all over the place and three-putting every green due to tough pin placements. Instead, they won’t be tucking pins like most weeks on TOUR, and rough will be given a nice haircut to make it easier to recover from errant tee shots.

The GIR percentage from missed fairways at this event has been around 60% while the normal TOUR stop usually hovers around 50% in that regard.

That means we want to back golfers that are okay playing target golf.

The Top 10 Easy Course Specialists are:

Tag Ridings (0.19 sg:easy vs. -0.605 sg:total)
Anirban Lahiri (1.327 sg:easy vs. 0.729 sg:total)
Johnson Wagner (0.939 sg:easy vs. 0.492 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (0.252 sg:easy vs. -0.192 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (1.506 sg:easy vs. 1.079 sg:total)
Cameron Tringale (1.337 sg:easy vs. 0.942 sg:total)
Charles Howell III (1.547 sg:easy vs. 1.162 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (0.879 sg:easy vs. 0.499 sg:total)
Kevin Streelman (1.214 sg:easy vs. 0.835 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (1.266 sg:easy vs. 0.892 sg:total)

While the list above doesn’t get much air time when major championships come around, they are crushing these smaller fields with easy courses, instead.

Charles Howell III is the king of the easy layout. Looking at his last 36 starts on weeks when the field averaged 0.75 under par (or easier), CH3 has finished top 25 in 19 of those (53%).

Golfers Remaining: 75

Bermuda Greens

For the third week in a row we have bermudagrass greens.

That means golfers that have been playing in Hawaii may have a slight edge in terms of prep work. On the other hand we can look at historical performance on bermuda to see who should enjoy the greens this week.

Disclaimer: The good guys over at Tour Junkies (and the RG Marketplace) have alerted us that a golfer at the course said the overseeding with Ryegrass is making these greens putt unlike bermuda. This is a tricky situation because the results of the CB Challenge have historically correlated nice with bermuda specialists but not poa or bent. This angle is remaining in here for now, but feel free to scratch this angle if you want. I will include a Specialist list at the bottom that excludes Bermuda.

The 10 Bermuda Specialists remaining:

Brett Stegmaier (0.935 sg:bermuda vs. 0.473 sg:total)
Fabian Gomez (0.869 sg:bermuda vs. 0.416 sg:total)
Ben Martin (1.107 sg:bermuda vs. 0.699 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.906 sg:bermuda vs. 0.522 sg:total)
Max Homa (-0.218 sg:bermuda vs. -0.575 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (0.144 sg:bermuda vs. -0.192 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.484 sg:bermuda vs. 1.184 sg:total)
John Huh (0.793 sg:bermuda vs. 0.555 sg:total)
Jamie Lovemark (1.102 sg:bermuda vs. 0.864 sg:total)
D.A. Points (-0.004 sg:bermuda vs. -0.237 sg:total)

You may immediately notice Max Homa and D.A. Points still being in the negative but still labeled as “specialists” here. Like always, we are always comparing to their baseline performance, so if they are going to decide to pop it’s more often than not coming on bermuda. At the same time, we should blindly rely on them just because they are on this list.

My favorite case on this list above is Lucas Glover. The Clemson product had a revival season last year but he was still “unpredictable” from week to week. We can reduce this unpredictability aspect a bit by only drafting him when bermuda greens are on tap.

Golfers Remaining: 41

Par 72 Courses

After a short par 70 last week at Waialae, we now head to a trio of par 72s.

That means a boatload of par 5s on the slate this week.

The Top 10 Par 72 Specialists:

Patton Kizzire (1.404 sg:par72 vs. 0.792 sg:total)
Andrew Loupe (0.639 sg:par72 vs. 0.151 sg:total)
Smylie Kaufman (1.175 sg:par72 vs. 0.765 sg:total)
Chad Collins (0.59 sg:par72 vs. 0.206 sg:total)
Luke List (1.612 sg:par72 vs. 1.246 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.863 sg:par72 vs. 0.522 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (0.821 sg:par72 vs. 0.499 sg:total)
Mark Wilson (0.335 sg:par72 vs. 0.015 sg:total)
Ryo Ishikawa (0.646 sg:par72 vs. 0.328 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.465 sg:par72 vs. 1.184 sg:total)

We see quite a few bombers on the list above as well as tee-to-green specialists. With four par 5s everyday, poor putters are also given quite a few more chances to splash home par breakers, which may explain the appearance of guys like Glover and Charley Hoffman.

Looking at the entire field, nobody is better on par 72s than Phil Mickelson. Lefty has top 25s in 21 of his last 34 starts on par 72s. Of course, Phil brings a lot of risk this week with his health being a big question mark.

Golfers Remaining: 14

California Courses

Most of the California swing features poa annua greens this event still correlates nicely with those events. That’s in large part due to how well golfers play in a certain climate or how comfortable they feel in a certain region.

Let’s see who plays well in the Golden State.

The 5 California Specialists:

Andrew Loupe (0.748 sg:cali vs. 0.151 sg:total)
Jamie Lovemark (1.328 sg:cali vs. 0.864 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.965 sg:cali vs. 0.522 sg:total)
Bill Haas (2.022 sg:cali vs. 1.606 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (0.139 sg:cali vs. -0.192 sg:total)

Loupe is a very interesting case here. He finished T3 here last year and looks to be a great course fit, on paper. The only problem is his prolonged layoff due to a thumb injury. You’re taking a risk taking him this week, but it’s a risk that could definitely pay off.

Golfers Remaining: 9

Baseline Performance

Looking at long-term performance we can say goodbye to Peter Malnati since he’s losing strokes to the field since 2014.

The next filter is current form. We are in a tricky area given the holiday break puts a line through the form line in many cases. Still, I would prefer to have a least one or two solid finishes over the last 10 weeks. For that reason we can say goodbye to Andrew Loupe, Chad Collins, and Roberto Castro.

I already talked about the appeal of Loupe in the California section above, but Roberto Castro is also kind of interesting. His “bad form” is really just bad timing as his 80th place finish at The RSM Classic falls in the last 10 weeks and this will be the first time teeing it up since. I would put Castro in the category of great GPP plays, much like Kisner last week.

The Specialists

Lucas Glover
Jamie Lovemark
Bill Haas
Charley Hoffman
Ryo Ishikawa

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Our specialist this week is Lucas Glover!

The elite ball-striker is making his debut as a specialist.

Jamie Lovemark checks all the boxes this week and he also arrives with a T6 (RSM Classic) and T4 (Sony Open) in his last two starts.

There is no denying Haas’ fit for this event. He’s a two-time winner here.

Charley Hoffman was born and raised in San Diego so it makes sense that he enjoys his trips back to Cali.

Ryo Ishikawa checks in as the last specialist. For anyone still patiently waiting for his breakout on the PGA TOUR, this week is as good as any for his chances.

The Anti-Specialists

Looking for the opposite of our specialists, these golfers have negative numbers in all four angles!

Geoff Ogilvy
John Senden
Tim Wilkinson
Chad Campbell

No big names here, so I would think it’s safe to avoid them entirely this week.

Best of luck everyone!

Non-Bermuda Specialists
As noted in the bermuda section above, there is some concern about the greens truly putting “like bermuda” this week. If you want to take the safest route, you can just remove grass type from the equation this week. That would add the following names to the list of specialists:

Andres Gonzales
Adam Hadwin
Kevin Streelman
Keegan Bradley
Ben Crane

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),

Form looks at the performance over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro). Given the holiday break, form is still rounding back into shape.

Golfer DK SG:Total Form Bermuda Calif Par 72 Easy Course Specialist Rating
Andrew Loupe $6,200 0.151 0 0.089 0.597 0.488 0.122 0.324
Peter Malnati $6,300 -0.243 -0.377 0.336 0.331 0.155 0.444 0.316
Lucas Glover $7,700 0.522 1.217 0.384 0.443 0.342 0.023 0.298
Jamie Lovemark $9,600 0.804 2.461 0.238 0.464 0.231 0.144 0.269
Colt Knost $6,500 0.759 -0.132 0.36 0.6 0.124 -0.011 0.268
Bill Haas $10,500 1.598 2.182 0.119 0.417 0.217 0.289 0.26
Patton Kizzire $6,700 0.792 0.264 0.099 0 0.612 0.265 0.244
Roberto Castro $7,000 0.499 -1.114 0.165 0.108 0.322 0.38 0.244
Charley Hoffman $8,500 1.182 0.874 0.299 0.141 0.281 0.241 0.24
Kevin Streelman $8,100 0.835 2.243 -0.028 0.519 0.091 0.379 0.24
Ryo Ishikawa $6,800 0.328 0.52 0.104 0.196 0.318 0.326 0.236
Max Homa $6,000 -0.575 -0.236 0.357 0.47 -0.104 0.209 0.233
Andres Gonzales $6,000 0.024 0.732 -0.224 0.655 0.209 0.27 0.227
Luke List $8,600 1.208 2.461 0.157 0 0.366 0.364 0.222
Adam Hadwin $7,500 0.892 2.52 -0.28 0.618 0.11 0.374 0.206
Chad Collins $5,900 0.209 -0.934 0.013 0.254 0.384 0.168 0.205
Tag Ridings $5,900 -0.643 0.644 0 0 0 0.795 0.199
D.A. Points $5,900 -0.237 0.967 0.233 0.505 -0.093 0.099 0.186
Jonas Blixt $6,100 0.498 -0.479 -0.163 0.459 0.382 0.042 0.18
Scott Stallings $6,000 0.117 -0.545 -0.202 0.945 0.187 -0.214 0.179
Smylie Kaufman $6,900 0.782 -0.132 0.181 0 0.41 0.106 0.174
Anirban Lahiri $7,000 0.774 1.068 -0.049 0 0.142 0.598 0.173
Brandon Hagy $5,900 0.377 -1.367 0 0 0.674 0 0.169
Martin Laird $7,800 0.828 2.27 -0.223 1.081 -0.048 -0.141 0.167
Brian Stuard $6,900 0.457 0.898 0.197 0.22 -0.055 0.279 0.16
Bryce Molder $6,800 0.692 0.807 0.435 0.131 0.137 -0.09 0.153
Will MacKenzie $6,300 0.346 -0.232 0.068 0.511 0.111 -0.101 0.147
J.J. Henry $5,900 -0.048 -0.031 -0.303 0.574 0.072 0.241 0.146
Brendan Steele $9,300 1.317 2.344 0.238 0.346 0.078 -0.097 0.141
Sean O’Hair $7,300 0.657 2.398 0.174 0.368 -0.114 0.12 0.137
Fabian Gomez $6,700 0.429 -0.317 0.453 0.497 -0.463 0.055 0.135
Mark Hubbard $5,900 0.14 -1.106 0.046 0.538 0.149 -0.191 0.135
Matt Every $5,900 -0.351 -3.479 0.815 0.552 -0.097 -0.733 0.134
Mark Wilson $5,900 0.015 -0.066 0.148 0 0.319 0.049 0.129
Keegan Bradley $7,400 1.432 0.802 -0.182 0.384 0.09 0.208 0.125
Seung-Yul Noh $6,500 0.63 -0.442 0.301 0.151 0.048 0 0.125
Michael Thompson $6,600 0.341 1.232 0.186 0.277 0.098 -0.063 0.125
Derek Fathauer $6,700 0.452 -1.6 -0.432 0.583 0.385 -0.044 0.123
Steven Alker $5,900 0.141 -0.067 0.425 0 0.088 -0.042 0.118
Whee Kim $6,600 0.349 0.644 0.119 -0.019 0.054 0.317 0.118
Ben Crane $6,600 0.396 0.468 -0.062 0.336 0.174 0.015 0.116
Webb Simpson $8,200 1.271 1.711 0.202 0 -0.108 0.359 0.113
Brett Stegmaier $6,300 0.473 1.618 0.462 0 -0.338 0.316 0.11
Jon Curran $6,000 0.568 -0.368 -0.187 0.688 0.169 -0.23 0.11
Phil Mickelson $10,800 1.869 0 0.142 0 0.213 0.082 0.109
Charles Howell III $9,900 1.139 2.711 0.127 -0.215 0.137 0.385 0.109
Camilo Villegas $6,800 0.591 1.868 0.121 0.353 -0.196 0.151 0.107
Cameron Tringale $6,700 0.942 1.243 0.068 -0.074 0.019 0.395 0.102
Francesco Molinari $10,300 1.565 2.46 0.126 0 0.334 -0.059 0.1
Jason Dufner $9,200 1.28 0.519 0.225 0 -0.068 0.233 0.097
Jason Bohn $6,300 0.794 0.711 -0.178 0.234 -0.002 0.333 0.097
Charlie Beljan $5,900 -0.692 0 -0.021 0.454 -0.062 0.014 0.096
Michael Kim $6,900 0.475 1.232 -0.033 0 0.175 0.235 0.094
Boo Weekley $6,200 0.39 -1.332 0.301 0 0.211 -0.141 0.093
Nick Watney $6,500 0.82 0 -0.273 0.476 -0.157 0.315 0.091
Johnson Wagner $6,700 0.511 -1.312 -0.402 0.059 0.253 0.447 0.089
Kyle Reifers $6,200 0.72 -0.979 -0.628 0.809 0.313 -0.142 0.088
Harold Varner III $7,200 0.717 1.25 -0.062 0 0.129 0.239 0.077
Zach Johnson $10,200 1.6 1.853 -0.09 0 0.183 0.198 0.073
Spencer Levin $6,200 0.477 -0.632 -0.181 0.464 -0.09 0.091 0.071
Bobby Wyatt $6,200 -0.292 -0.736 0.15 0 0 0.121 0.068
Brian Gay $6,500 -0.351 0.92 -0.077 0 0.019 0.296 0.06
Kevin Na $8,800 1.625 1.398 0.196 -0.134 0.153 0.002 0.054
Vaughn Taylor $6,400 0.848 0.337 -0.028 0 0.25 -0.005 0.054
Blayne Barber $7,100 0.54 3.467 0.383 0.103 -0.169 -0.112 0.051
Paul Casey $10,000 1.873 -1.132 -0.042 0 0.018 0.208 0.046
Henrik Norlander $6,800 0.613 2.682 0.001 0 -0.083 0.244 0.041
Ryan Palmer $8,000 1.651 -1.632 0.094 0.197 -0.073 -0.066 0.038
Robert Garrigus $6,800 0.33 1.368 -0.21 0.296 -0.262 0.325 0.037
John Peterson $6,800 0.225 1.302 0.41 0.261 -0.149 -0.396 0.032
Zack Sucher $6,000 -0.868 -0.902 0 0 0 0.102 0.025
Ryan Blaum $6,200 1.382 0.737 0 0 0 0.102 0.025
Patrick Reed $11,200 1.584 1.718 -0.097 0.18 -0.08 0.097 0.025
Hudson Swafford $7,900 0.636 1.378 -0.193 0.141 -0.037 0.176 0.022
Ryan Armour $6,000 -0.294 1.217 -0.239 0 0 0.319 0.02
Alex Cejka $6,800 0.739 -1.568 0.029 -0.126 0.057 0.06 0.005
Martin Flores $6,600 0.588 1.368 0.285 -0.318 0.195 -0.156 0.001
Chris Evans $6,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kenny Pigman $6,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
John Cook $5,900 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bob Estes $5,900 -0.962 -0.031 0 0 0 0 0
Brett Drewitt $5,900 0.149 -0.283 0 0 0 0 0
Cheng Tsung Pan $6,600 0.764 1.268 0 0 0 0 0
Dominic Bozzelli $5,900 -0.339 -1.652 0 0 0 0 0
Grayson Murray $7,000 0.499 0 0 0 0 0 0
J.T. Poston $6,000 0.091 -0.08 0 0 0 0 0
Julian Etulain $6,000 -1.108 -0.896 0 0 0 0 0
Richy Werenski $6,000 -0.246 0.52 0 0 0 0 0
Rick Lamb $5,900 -1.856 -1.902 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Brehm $6,400 0.495 0.22 0 0 0 0 0
Seamus Power $6,400 0.757 0.757 0 0 0 0 0
Sebastian Munoz $6,000 0.517 0.264 0 0 0 0 0
Xander Schauffele $6,500 0.377 -0.582 0 0 0 0 0
Joel Dahmen $5,900 -0.246 -0.736 0 0 0 0 0
Nicholas Lindheim $6,000 0.151 -0.817 0 0 0 0 0
Aaron Wise $6,500 0.524 0.27 0 0 0 0 0
Brandon Stone $7,000 -2.447 0.945 0 0 0 0 0
Jon Rahm $9,700 1.852 0.52 0 0 0 0 0
Wesley Bryan $6,400 0.867 0.168 0 0 0 0 0
Brian Campbell $6,000 -0.506 -4.236 0 0 0 0 0
Bryson DeChambeau $6,800 0.83 0.02 0 0 0 0 0
J.J. Spaun $6,100 0.136 0.468 0 0 0 0 0
Mark Anderson $6,000 -1.173 0.264 0 0 0 0 0
Mark Brooks $5,900 -3.245 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kevin Tway $5,900 -0.481 -0.725 -0.415 0 0.196 0.195 -0.006
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano $6,000 0.129 -0.252 -0.205 0 -0.175 0.337 -0.011
Soren Kjeldsen $7,000 1.27 1.648 0 0 -0.062 0 -0.016
Aaron Baddeley $6,900 0.619 0.094 -0.095 0.147 0.105 -0.236 -0.02
John Huh $7,000 0.539 1.628 0.238 -0.353 -0.139 0.153 -0.025
Cameron Percy $6,200 0.396 0.644 0.152 0 -0.17 -0.089 -0.027
Chris Kirk $8,700 1.263 1.168 0.196 0 0.15 -0.456 -0.028
Trey Mullinax $6,600 0.322 0.123 0 0 0 -0.155 -0.039
Scott Brown $6,300 0.613 0.084 0.195 -0.328 -0.179 0.141 -0.042
Carl Pettersson $6,100 0.204 -1.139 0.091 -0.352 -0.115 0.202 -0.043
Stewart Cink $7,200 0.871 1.961 -0.1 -0.437 0.188 0.17 -0.045
Graham DeLaet $6,900 1.067 0 0.037 -0.05 -0.045 -0.144 -0.05
Jhonattan Vegas $6,900 0.596 0.557 0.029 -0.462 0.124 0.103 -0.051
Nick Taylor $6,400 0.297 0.608 0.031 -0.353 0.229 -0.126 -0.055
Chez Reavie $7,500 0.867 3.084 -0.342 0.423 -0.093 -0.216 -0.057
Brad Fritsch $6,100 0.163 -0.448 0 0 -0.555 0.318 -0.059
D.J. Trahan $5,900 -0.841 -3.736 -0.052 0 -0.111 -0.078 -0.06
Zac Blair $6,400 0.524 0.711 0.137 -0.422 0.03 0.013 -0.06
Steven Bowditch $5,900 -0.391 -9.402 -0.206 0.13 0.167 -0.341 -0.063
Cameron Smith $7,000 0.62 1.389 -0.219 0 -0.035 -0.001 -0.064
Shawn Stefani $7,100 0.797 0.576 0.023 0 -0.396 0.103 -0.068
David Lingmerth $7,300 0.697 1.586 0.054 0.116 -0.127 -0.315 -0.068
Danny Lee $6,700 0.932 1.445 -0.053 -0.337 0.072 0.031 -0.072
Daniel Summerhays $6,700 1.028 1.398 0.157 -0.103 -0.163 -0.19 -0.075
Brian Harman $7,600 0.879 0.42 -0.119 -0.206 -0.139 0.159 -0.076
William McGirt $7,400 0.998 1.57 0.034 -0.025 -0.401 0.085 -0.077
Ricky Barnes $6,500 0.41 -0.479 0.113 -0.224 -0.161 -0.054 -0.082
Bud Cauley $6,000 0.768 -0.979 -0.547 -0.194 0.172 0.237 -0.083
Russell Henley $9,500 0.986 2.307 0.004 -0.725 -0.066 0.371 -0.104
Jonathan Randolph $6,100 -0.366 -0.652 0.033 0 -0.323 -0.15 -0.11
Ken Duke $6,100 -0.058 -1.28 0.165 -0.09 -0.346 -0.22 -0.122
Sam Saunders $6,300 -0.052 0.467 0.094 0 -0.521 -0.072 -0.125
Ben Martin $6,600 0.688 0.72 0.408 -0.847 -0.231 0.163 -0.127
Kelly Kraft $6,300 0.095 1.807 -0.433 0 -0.055 -0.029 -0.129
Jerry Kelly $6,400 0.969 -0.1 0.07 -0.403 -0.074 -0.115 -0.13
Emiliano Grillo $9,800 1.564 2.52 -0.663 0 0.024 0.103 -0.134
Troy Merritt $6,100 0.351 -2.184 0.064 -0.45 -0.201 -0.047 -0.158
Hunter Mahan $6,000 0.653 -3.902 -0.474 0.572 0.16 -0.9 -0.161
Rory Sabbatini $6,600 0.38 0.632 0.223 -0.85 -0.053 0.025 -0.164
Ollie Schniederjans $6,900 0.313 0.732 0 0 -0.353 -0.314 -0.167
Miguel Angel Carballo $6,100 -0.472 -1.332 -0.423 0 -0.058 -0.248 -0.182
Angel Cabrera $6,000 0.195 -3.068 -0.29 0.205 0.327 -0.99 -0.187
Sung Kang $6,100 0.71 0.308 -0.384 0 -0.279 -0.17 -0.208
Chad Campbell $6,500 0.847 1.235 -0.114 -0.371 -0.321 -0.078 -0.221
Scott Piercy $8,300 1.087 1.959 -0.065 -1.19 -0.091 0.427 -0.23
Kevin Kisner $8,900 1.099 2.02 0.098 -0.973 -0.13 0.058 -0.237
Tim Wilkinson $6,400 0.155 0.732 -0.04 -0.445 -0.346 -0.126 -0.239
David Hearn $6,200 0.855 -0.85 -0.045 -0.975 0.059 -0.041 -0.25
Tyrone Van Aswegen $6,000 0.194 -0.332 -0.494 0.025 -0.413 -0.244 -0.281
John Senden $6,700 1.078 0.923 -0.136 -0.619 -0.027 -0.451 -0.308
Steve Marino $6,300 0.135 -0.332 -0.828 0 -0.499 -0.382 -0.427
Geoff Ogilvy $6,900 0.323 0 -0.213 -0.808 -0.157 -0.667 -0.461

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.