Searching for a Specialist: CIMB Classic
Welcome back for another specialist search as we break down the CIMB Classic.
Last week we saw three of the seven specialists miss the cut but all three were on the wrong side of the weather draw. If you listened to Kevin Roth’s weather preview in the forums then you would have subbed them out. The three specialists with an AM/PM draw went on to finish 22nd, 35th, and 67th. Nothing to write home about, but no lineup killers either.
We got reminded last week just how valuable it is to check the weather forecast. There shouldn’t be any advantages this week with all the Thursday and Friday tee times starting within two hours of each other, so don’t try to get cute with tee-time waves this week.
On the slate this week is TPC Kuala Lumpur. It is a bit unique in that it’s a par 72 but also a short course. Those two usually don’t go hand-in-hand, so we’ll try to find golfers that excel on both angles. The last angle we’ll add is performance in no-cut events.
Side note: The greens this week are seashore paspalum which is a rare type for grass for the PGA TOUR. That would make for a great angle, except it is actually TOO rare to rely on. The sample sizes for paspalum performance is too low, even if I include Euro Tour data and set the minimum rounds to 16 instead of 25. I will throw a link in the comments for Paspalum performance (PGA & Euro) that you can use as a final tiebreaker if you’d like.
Here we go…
Short Courses
TPC Kuala Lumpur has been used for three years at this event in addition to the Malaysian Open from 2010 to 2015.
The venue has added 20 yards since last year but it’s still just 7,005 yards. That’s really short for a par 72.
The Top 10 Short Course Specialists are:
Patrick Rodgers (1.138 sg:short vs. 0.397 sg:total)
Zac Blair (0.904 sg:short vs. 0.171 sg:total)
Brian Stuard (0.808 sg:short vs. 0.191 sg:total)
Pat Perez (0.895 sg:short vs. 0.343 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (0.085 sg:short vs. -0.465 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (1.105 sg:short vs. 0.559 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (1.563 sg:short vs. 1.078 sg:total)
Aaron Baddeley (0.765 sg:short vs. 0.312 sg:total)
Spencer Levin (0.598 sg:short vs. 0.218 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.074 sg:short vs. 0.77 sg:total)
You’ll notice a lot of great putters on the list above. That makes since we eliminate more yardage tee-to-green which means less opportunity to gain strokes there. That puts more emphasis on play on and around the greens.
Brian Stuard is someone worth highlighting here. While the entire field has averaged just under 6 starts on short courses since 2014, Stuard has played a whopping 17 events on short courses, earning top 25s in eight of them. That is more than double his baseline T25 rate of 23% during that time. If he’s going to pop, this could be a course for him.
On the flip side, Adam Hadwin has preferred longer layouts over the last few seasons. In 11 starts on short layouts since 2014, he’s posted ZERO top 25s. His strokes gained per round in those 11 starts is also a huge 0.752 strokes less than his baseline. No thanks.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 28
Par 72 Courses
With a par 72 on the slate, we see four par 5s each round, so 16 on the week assuming our golfers make the cut.
We want to target golfers that play better when they face a par 72 layout that gives them more bounce-back scoring opportunities rather than grinding out par 4s all day.
The 10 Par 72 Specialists remaining:
Marc Leishman (1.44 sg:par72 vs. 0.963 sg:total)
Pat Perez (0.685 sg:par72 vs. 0.343 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (1.296 sg:par72 vs. 1.078 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.06 sg:par72 vs. 0.87 sg:total)
Colt Knost (0.677 sg:par72 vs. 0.491 sg:total)
Chez Reavie (0.565 sg:par72 vs. 0.395 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (-0.311 sg:par72 vs. -0.465 sg:total)
Mark Hubbard (0.067 sg:par72 vs. -0.084 sg:total)
Jim Herman (0.289 sg:par72 vs. 0.152 sg:total)
Charles Howell III (0.967 sg:par72 vs. 0.834 sg:total)
Leishman ended the 2015-16 season on a mediocre MC-46-52 during the Playoffs. He should enjoy a showdown this week against much weaker competition, especially in terms of depth. Looking at his last 28 starts on par 72s, he’s picked off top 25s in 11 of them, That 39% is nearly 10 percent higher than his baseline over that same stretch of time.
We can say goodbye to Tyrone Van Aswegen here since he’s found just TWO top 25s over his last 31 starts on par 72 layouts. Ouch.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 18
No-Cut Events
The last angle is our search for a true specialist is performance in no-cut events.
No-cut events put an emphasis on true skill with four guaranteed rounds, there is less emphasis on getting off to a scorching start. Over four rounds, golfers with more raw talent have a better chance to put up a low round.
This angle becomes a bit of a sample size eliminator as well. The most common way to earn starts in no-cut events is to qualify for WGC events. If a golfer doesn’t meet the minimum rounds since 2014, they probably aren’t sued to these type of events, and that could throw off their prep.
We lose 14 golfers at this stage, but none of them scream FADE. They just aren’t specialists.
The standout is Scott Piercy who gains 0.939 strokes per round more than his baseline, when teeing it up in no-cut events. Wowsers!
GOLFERS REMAINING: 4
The Specialists
Scott Piercy
Gary Woodland
James Hahn
Patrick Reed
Our specialist this week is Scott Piercy!
I just talked about Piercy being elite in no-cut events since 2014, but he also checks the boxes for par 72 performance and on short courses. He also had this to say last time he played here, “I love the heat. I grew up in Vegas, so I’m used to the heat.” Piercy said that on his way toward a T7 finish.
That VEGAS factor should not be ignored. Other course horses Ryan Moore and Kevin Na both live in Las Vegas. Don’t be afraid to scour the field for Vegas ties and/or performance in the Shriners.
Gary Woodland is the next specialist. He doesn’t live in Vegas, but he loves this layout. With course history and specialist angles both lining up, Woodland is a great play in all formats.
Third is James Hahn who loves to miss cuts but that won’t be a factor this week. He also has a pair of wins on the PGA TOUR. Last time Hahn was here he said in the States people often confuse him for guys like Seung-yul Noh, John Huh, etc. but fans in KL actually know who he is. That may not mean anything for his performance but he finished sixth that year, so maybe it is comforting to have fans accurately following him.
The last specialist needs no introduction. He’s an American hero, Patrick Reed. He just dominated the Ryder Cup. If he can maintain that level of play, he’ll lap the field this week.
The Anti-Specialists
Last week the anti-specialists lost an average of 0.233 per round, but no golfers fit the bill this week. That is in large part due to the smaller field. Stick to the regular specialists this week.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),
Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks (including European Tour) and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained with positive numbers being a good thing.
| Golfer | DK | SG:Total | Form | Par 72 | Short | No Cut | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Piercy | $8,900 | 0.559 | 1.117 | 0.124 | 0.546 | 0.939 | 0.536 |
| Pat Perez | $6,700 | 0.343 | 0 | 0.342 | 0.553 | 0 | 0.298 |
| Justin Thomas | $10,400 | 1.005 | 1.32 | 0.319 | -0.115 | 0.641 | 0.282 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $7,000 | 0.397 | 1.041 | 0.101 | 0.741 | 0 | 0.281 |
| Gary Woodland | $9,600 | 1.078 | 1.344 | 0.218 | 0.485 | 0.132 | 0.279 |
| Kevin Chappell | $9,100 | 0.887 | 0.967 | -0.238 | 0.239 | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| Zac Blair | $6,600 | 0.171 | -0.763 | 0.006 | 0.733 | 0 | 0.246 |
| Peter Malnati | $6,800 | -0.465 | -0.156 | 0.154 | 0.55 | 0 | 0.235 |
| Ian Poulter | $7,300 | 0.726 | 0 | 0.197 | 0 | 0.432 | 0.21 |
| Brian Stuard | $6,700 | 0.191 | 0.458 | -0.054 | 0.617 | 0 | 0.188 |
| Paul Casey | $11,600 | 1.449 | 2.8 | 0.005 | -0.133 | 0.6 | 0.157 |
| Aaron Baddeley | $7,100 | 0.312 | -0.334 | 0.005 | 0.453 | 0 | 0.152 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,000 | 0.963 | 0.585 | 0.477 | 0.018 | -0.08 | 0.138 |
| Tony Finau | $8,100 | 0.874 | 0.407 | 0.108 | 0.283 | 0 | 0.13 |
| Mark Hubbard | $6,200 | -0.084 | -0.675 | 0.151 | 0.229 | 0 | 0.127 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,700 | 0.77 | 1.156 | -0.017 | 0.304 | 0.054 | 0.114 |
| Charles Howell III | $7,000 | 0.834 | -0.024 | 0.133 | 0.202 | 0 | 0.112 |
| James Hahn | $7,200 | 0.166 | 0.703 | 0.099 | 0.042 | 0.191 | 0.111 |
| Alex Cejka | $7,400 | 0.394 | 1.765 | 0.061 | 0.245 | 0 | 0.102 |
| Ryan Moore | $10,600 | 1.119 | 1.698 | -0.212 | 0.123 | 0.39 | 0.1 |
| Brendan Steele | $8,800 | 0.87 | 0.57 | 0.19 | 0.104 | 0 | 0.098 |
| Jim Herman | $7,000 | 0.152 | 0.392 | 0.137 | 0.141 | 0 | 0.093 |
| Smylie Kaufman | $6,900 | 0.59 | -0.508 | 0.275 | 0 | 0 | 0.092 |
| Patrick Reed | $11,200 | 1.213 | 1.881 | 0.089 | 0.124 | 0.042 | 0.085 |
| Adam Scott | $10,900 | 1.939 | 2.529 | 0.005 | 0 | 0.243 | 0.082 |
| Spencer Levin | $6,400 | 0.218 | 0.706 | -0.137 | 0.38 | 0 | 0.081 |
| Colt Knost | $6,800 | 0.491 | -1.143 | 0.187 | 0.04 | 0 | 0.076 |
| Hudson Swafford | $6,500 | 0.27 | 0.795 | -0.007 | 0.232 | 0 | 0.075 |
| Chez Reavie | $6,300 | 0.395 | 0.779 | 0.17 | 0.039 | 0 | 0.07 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | $9,200 | 1.109 | 1.547 | 0.184 | 0 | 0 | 0.061 |
| Kevin Na | $9,900 | 1.271 | 1.098 | 0.254 | -0.149 | 0.048 | 0.051 |
| Branden Grace | $8,400 | 1.015 | 0.808 | -0.296 | 0 | 0.442 | 0.048 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,400 | 0.336 | 0.334 | 0.437 | -0.309 | 0 | 0.043 |
| Daniel Berger | $8,500 | 1.046 | 1.054 | 0.093 | -0.497 | 0.517 | 0.038 |
| Jon Curran | $6,800 | 0.279 | 0.364 | 0.154 | -0.04 | 0 | 0.038 |
| Byeong Hun An | $9,400 | 0.9 | 1.052 | 0.104 | 0 | 0 | 0.035 |
| Cameron Tringale | $6,300 | 0.533 | -0.246 | 0.187 | -0.33 | 0.246 | 0.034 |
| Scott Hend | $7,800 | 0.157 | 0.665 | 0.044 | 0 | 0.055 | 0.033 |
| Harold Varner III | $7,300 | 0.4 | 0.239 | 0.081 | 0 | 0 | 0.027 |
| Sergio Garcia | $10,100 | 1.988 | 0.818 | 0.022 | 0 | 0.056 | 0.026 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | $7,500 | 0 | 0 | 0.261 | -0.183 | 0 | 0.026 |
| Derek Fathauer | $6,200 | 0.005 | 0.345 | 0.319 | -0.252 | 0 | 0.022 |
| K.J. Choi | $6,500 | 0.396 | -0.198 | 0.154 | -0.126 | 0 | 0.009 |
| Young-han Song | $7,300 | 1.233 | 0.848 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Soomin Lee | $7,200 | -1.98 | -0.023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeung-hun Wang | $7,100 | -1.377 | -0.368 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miguel Tabuena | $6,900 | -1.827 | -0.615 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chan Shih-chang | $6,900 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gaganjeet Bhullar | $6,700 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Fraser | $6,400 | 0.27 | 0.501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gavin Green | $6,400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Chia | $6,200 | -1.515 | -1.143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| S.S.P. Chawrasia | $6,200 | 0 | -0.484 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Harman | $7,200 | 0.583 | 0.773 | -0.185 | 0.281 | -0.102 | -0.002 |
| John Senden | $6,600 | 0.725 | 0.912 | 0.052 | -0.102 | 0.04 | -0.003 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,600 | 1.052 | 1.123 | 0.063 | -0.129 | 0.045 | -0.007 |
| Robert Streb | $6,600 | 0.763 | 0.194 | 0.007 | -0.054 | 0.01 | -0.012 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,500 | 0.198 | 1.077 | 0.165 | -0.224 | 0 | -0.02 |
| John Huh | $6,300 | 0.098 | 0.06 | -0.038 | -0.044 | 0 | -0.027 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,300 | 1.644 | 2.029 | 0.11 | 0 | -0.213 | -0.035 |
| Russell Knox | $8,200 | 1.051 | 1.59 | -0.205 | 0.158 | -0.073 | -0.04 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $8,600 | 1.134 | 1.598 | -0.051 | 0 | -0.083 | -0.045 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,900 | 0.926 | 1.665 | -0.165 | 0 | 0 | -0.055 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $8,300 | 0.265 | -1.196 | 0.108 | 0 | -0.278 | -0.057 |
| Ernie Els | $6,900 | 0.243 | 0.055 | -0.131 | -0.412 | 0.372 | -0.057 |
| Danny Lee | $6,700 | 0.574 | 0.528 | 0.124 | -0.27 | -0.029 | -0.058 |
| Kyle Reifers | $6,400 | 0.337 | 0.06 | 0.392 | -0.59 | 0 | -0.066 |
| David Lingmerth | $6,600 | 0.314 | -0.021 | -0.048 | -0.278 | 0.112 | -0.071 |
| Brett Stegmaier | $6,200 | 0.163 | 0.219 | -0.292 | 0 | 0 | -0.097 |
| Ricky Barnes | $6,500 | 0.13 | 0.972 | -0.181 | -0.203 | 0 | -0.128 |
| David Hearn | $6,500 | 0.507 | 0.237 | 0.118 | -0.37 | -0.164 | -0.138 |
| Billy Hurley III | $7,100 | 0.25 | 0.899 | -0.301 | -0.124 | 0 | -0.142 |
| Tyrone Van Aswegen | $6,700 | -0.178 | 0.203 | -0.492 | 0.046 | 0 | -0.149 |
| Sung Kang | $6,800 | 0.391 | 0.522 | -0.486 | 0 | 0 | -0.162 |
| Chad Campbell | $6,900 | 0.501 | 0.547 | -0.313 | -0.195 | 0 | -0.169 |
| Adam Hadwin | $6,300 | 0.475 | 0.837 | 0.149 | -0.752 | 0 | -0.201 |
| Vijay Singh | $6,800 | 0.269 | 0.015 | -0.197 | -0.49 | 0 | -0.229 |
| Daniel Summerhays | $7,000 | 0.722 | -0.417 | -0.138 | 0.081 | -0.655 | -0.238 |