Searching for a Specialist: CIMB Classic
The TOUR heads to Malaysia to take on TPC Kuala Lumpur.
The course is a par 72 with seashore paspalum greens and there is no cut, given there are just 78 golfers in the field.
Before we look for a specialist at the CIMB, let’s recap last week. Brendan Steele got the job done as our specialist while Jamie Lovemark was right in the mix before fading on the weekend. Hard to complain about a winner, so let’s keep that momentum rolling.
There isn’t much of a sample size of seashore paspalum greens so we won’t look at that for the CIMB. Instead, we will look at Performance on Par 72 Courses, Performance in the Fall, Performance in No-Cut Events, and Performance in Lift, Clean, and Place Rounds.
Here we go …
Par 72 Courses
This week’s course has four par 5s and all of them are gettable.
Everyone in the field will have a go at these holes, so let’s see who prefers courses with lots of par 5s…
The 10 Par 72 Specialists:
Cody Gribble (1.288 sg:par72 vs. 0.45 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (1.191 sg:par72 vs. 0.806 sg:total)
Luke List (1.631 sg:par72 vs. 1.287 sg:total)
Jonas Blixt (0.855 sg:par72 vs. 0.581 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (1.173 sg:par72 vs. 0.921 sg:total)
Harold Varner III (1.118 sg:par72 vs. 0.873 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (0.873 sg:par72 vs. 0.633 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.463 sg:par72 vs. 1.234 sg:total)
Richy Werenski (0.727 sg:par72 vs. 0.501 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (1.684 sg:par72 vs. 1.471 sg:total)
Gribble tops this list for the second week in a row, but he’s just playing his second season on TOUR. We are likely going to see this number continue to decline as he adds more par 72 weeks to his sample size.
Other than that we get ball-striking machines like List, Glover, and HV3. These guys can feast on par 5s, but they often struggle with the flat stick. More par 5s means more holes they are allowed a two-putt birdie.
Performance in the Fall
Some golfers like to pick up early-season FedExCup Points while others just like the courses that are offered on the fall schedule.
The Top 10 Fall Specialists are:
Scott Piercy (1.805 sg:fall vs. 1.039 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (2.116 sg:fall vs. 1.479 sg:total)
Russell Knox (2.059 sg:fall vs. 1.454 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.847 sg:fall vs. 2.284 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (1.15 sg:fall vs. 0.653 sg:total)
Luke List (1.755 sg:fall vs. 1.287 sg:total)
James Hahn (1.26 sg:fall vs. 0.819 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.874 sg:fall vs. 1.525 sg:total)
Kevin Na (2.028 sg:fall vs. 1.706 sg:total)
Camilo Villegas (0.969 sg:fall vs. 0.673 sg:total)
Piercy is an interesting case here. He owns 27 career top 10s on the PGA TOUR. Of those 27, 8 of them have come after September, with nine others coming in June, July, or August. He is definitely a second-half player.
Luke List someone that has benefitted from weaker fields in the fall. He’s picked up four top 15s in October or November, so we may see him catch fire real soon. This week presents a good opportunity with four scoreable par 5s on the docket.
No-Cut Events
No-cut events are often associated with prestigious events, but the CIMB proves that isn’t always the case.
These events also give golfers four guaranteed rounds to let their cream rise to the top. Rather than missing the cut on the number and missing out on a backdoor top 20, golfers can play stress-free golf, knowing they have a paycheck coming at the end of the week.
The Top 10 No-Cut Specialists:
Justin Thomas (2.56 sg:no-cut vs. 1.895 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (1.662 sg:no-cut vs. 1.039 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.565 sg:no-cut vs. 2.155 sg:total)
Ian Poulter (1.581 sg:no-cut vs. 1.322 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.748 sg:no-cut vs. 1.525 sg:total)
James Hahn (1.02 sg:no-cut vs. 0.819 sg:total)
Keegan Bradley (1.639 sg:no-cut vs. 1.49 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (1.904 sg:no-cut vs. 1.756 sg:total)
Russell Knox (1.585 sg:no-cut vs. 1.454 sg:total)
Branden Grace (1.542 sg:no-cut vs. 1.495 sg:total)
They say any publicity is good publicity, and the same might be said about having no-cut experience. Having some experience in these events where you are guaranteed four rounds can be very useful. Having good experience, like the list above is even better!
If small-field events place more emphasis on picking the winner, who has the most top-5 worthy finishes in no-cut events (since 2014)? That would be Paul Casey (7), Hideki Matsuyama (6), and Justin Thomas (5). Nothing too shocking there, since they are the class of the field.
Lift, Clean, and Place
This is an angle that rarely gets brought out into daylight.
It’s so rarely used because it’s hard to predict when lift, clean, and place (preferred lies) will be used in an event.
That’s not the case in Kuala Lumpur since the sticky and wet conditions almost always lead to preferred lies being used at this event. So let’s see who shines in the wet conditions.
The Top 10 LCP Specialists:
Scott Stallings (1.149 sg:lift clean place vs. 0.407 sg:total)
Kevin Na (2.438 sg:lift clean place vs. 1.706 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (1.759 sg:lift clean place vs. 1.156 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.81 sg:lift clean place vs. 1.234 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (2.407 sg:lift clean place vs. 1.895 sg:total)
Jim Herman (1.248 sg:lift clean place vs. 0.744 sg:total)
Ben Crane (0.993 sg:lift clean place vs. 0.496 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.298 sg:lift clean place vs. 0.802 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.215 sg:lift clean place vs. 0.794 sg:total)
Chris Stroud (1.12 sg:lift clean place vs. 0.723 sg:total)
Really a good mix of talent here. Some bombers who take advantage of the fairways being easier to hit in soft conditions. Some short hitters who pipe nearly every fairway and are able to lift, clean, and place their ball more than the field. Some are just elite iron players, who capitalize on the perfect lies from the fairway. Lastly, we have a few elite scramblers who are still able to get up-and-down while others may struggle with the wet rough around the greens.
If you follow enough Patrick Rodgers fanboys on Twitter, you will also know that Lift, Clean, and Rodgers always gets brought out when preferred lies are being used. While it doesn’t always work out, his +0.150 rating in this category does suggest that he prefers the wet conditions that allow him to hold more fairways.
Baseline Performance
If we narrow our list down to golfers that are positive in ALL FOUR angles, we have two remaining.
One of them just can’t be trusted due to current form, and that is JAMES HAHN. That makes him a GPP-Only Specialist. He may sound safer due to his back-to-back top 10s at this event, but he arrives with MC-MC-T75-T33 in his last four starts, with the latter two coming in condensed fields.
The Specialist
Justin Thomas
The specialist this week is Justin Thomas.
The specialist search yields a defending champion for the second week in a row!
It’s not exactly a shocker that the golfer that is attempting to three-peat is a good course fit. That being said, I’m not going to adjust the search, just to find someone more “under the radar.” Some weeks we see chalk specialists, so let’s see if we can start the season with back-to-back specialist wins.
The Anti-Specialists
The specialists above are positive in all four angles, but which golfers are the opposite and show a poor course fit?
Danny Lee
Only one anti-specialist this week and that’s the Kiwi who has finished T13-WD-T51 in this event. He also arrives with four MCs and a WD in his last five starts, let’s leave him on the bench.
Super Simple Specialist Ratings
The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.
However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.
Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:
Justin Thomas
Kevin Na
Paul Casey
Luke List
Emiliano Grillo
Brendan Steele
Hideki Matsuyama
Ian Poulter
Keegan Bradley
Charl Schwartzel
Pat Perez
Bud Cauley
Russell Knox
Harold Varner III
Adam Hadwin
Scott Piercy
Lucas Glover
Cameron Smith
Chez Reavie
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Luke List is certainly a name that stands out here. He ranks 18th in Baseline Strokes Gained, 10th in Current Form, and 7th in Course Fit (Specialist Rating).
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014).
Form looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA, Web, and Euro).
| Golfer | DK | FD | FDRFT | SG:Total | Form | Fall | No Cut | Par 72 | LCP | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Thomas | $12,300 | $10,500 | $21,000 | 1.895 | 58.859 | 0.262 | 0.665 | 0.133 | 0.512 | 0.393 |
| Scott Piercy | $8,500 | $5,800 | $15,800 | 1.039 | 9.667 | 0.766 | 0.623 | -0.207 | 0.247 | 0.357 |
| Kevin Na | $8,200 | $7,100 | $16,200 | 1.706 | 50.871 | 0.322 | -0.253 | 0.051 | 0.732 | 0.213 |
| Russell Knox | $8,100 | $6,400 | $15,200 | 1.454 | 3.186 | 0.605 | 0.131 | -0.155 | 0.257 | 0.21 |
| Nick Taylor | $7,600 | $5,000 | $13,300 | 0.633 | 10.362 | 0.226 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.372 | 0.209 |
| Cody Gribble | $7,300 | $4,700 | $11,800 | 0.45 | -9.206 | 0 | 0 | 0.838 | 0 | 0.209 |
| Luke List | $7,600 | $5,300 | $14,500 | 1.287 | 28.427 | 0.468 | 0 | 0.344 | 0 | 0.203 |
| James Hahn | $7,400 | $5,900 | $15,400 | 0.819 | -5.436 | 0.44 | 0.2 | 0.083 | 0.041 | 0.191 |
| Jim Herman | $7,500 | $4,700 | $12,800 | 0.744 | -0.748 | 0.08 | 0 | 0.179 | 0.504 | 0.19 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $7,200 | $5,400 | $13,900 | 0.653 | -1.081 | 0.496 | 0 | 0.074 | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,800 | $6,700 | $15,000 | 1.479 | 25.803 | 0.637 | -0.075 | 0.135 | 0 | 0.174 |
| Scott Stallings | $6,800 | $4,900 | $13,100 | 0.407 | 1.099 | -0.035 | 0 | -0.047 | 0.742 | 0.165 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,200 | $9,900 | $19,100 | 2.284 | 12.287 | 0.563 | -0.066 | 0.141 | -0.061 | 0.144 |
| Ben Crane | $7,000 | $5,000 | $12,300 | 0.496 | 13.417 | 0 | 0 | 0.052 | 0.497 | 0.137 |
| Cameron Smith | $8,400 | $5,700 | $15,200 | 0.802 | 16.962 | 0.081 | 0 | -0.051 | 0.496 | 0.131 |
| Michael Kim | $7,300 | $4,900 | $12,200 | 0.692 | -6.198 | 0.28 | 0 | 0.177 | 0 | 0.114 |
| Brendan Steele | $8,300 | $8,400 | $16,400 | 1.525 | 23.855 | 0.35 | 0.223 | 0.181 | -0.301 | 0.113 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,000 | $5,600 | $14,300 | 0.794 | 8.359 | 0.249 | -0.395 | 0.149 | 0.421 | 0.106 |
| Ian Poulter | $8,900 | $7,100 | $16,400 | 1.322 | 25.526 | 0 | 0.259 | 0.156 | 0 | 0.104 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,500 | $7,300 | $14,500 | 1.099 | 8.355 | 0.272 | 0 | 0.108 | -0.005 | 0.094 |
| Whee Kim | $7,100 | $5,000 | $12,700 | 0.468 | 1.197 | -0.109 | 0 | 0.106 | 0.33 | 0.082 |
| Charles Howell III | $7,400 | $6,400 | $14,200 | 1.28 | -8.91 | 0.023 | 0 | 0.203 | 0.099 | 0.081 |
| Jonas Blixt | $7,100 | $4,800 | $12,200 | 0.581 | 5.794 | -0.055 | 0 | 0.274 | 0.074 | 0.073 |
| D.A. Points | $6,900 | $4,500 | $11,700 | 0.031 | 0.167 | -0.119 | 0 | 0.047 | 0.357 | 0.071 |
| Adam Hadwin | $7,400 | $7,700 | $14,800 | 1.156 | 21.787 | -0.31 | 0 | -0.013 | 0.603 | 0.07 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,000 | $6,900 | $14,500 | 1.49 | 25.48 | -0.12 | 0.149 | 0.026 | 0.21 | 0.066 |
| Richy Werenski | $7,000 | $5,400 | $12,900 | 0.501 | 22.558 | 0 | 0 | 0.226 | 0 | 0.056 |
| Camilo Villegas | $7,000 | $4,900 | $12,400 | 0.673 | 10.265 | 0.296 | 0 | -0.235 | 0.162 | 0.056 |
| Harold Varner III | $7,200 | $5,800 | $14,500 | 0.873 | 31.935 | -0.115 | 0 | 0.245 | 0.087 | 0.054 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | $7,400 | $8,500 | $15,900 | 1.471 | 9.688 | 0 | 0 | 0.213 | 0 | 0.053 |
| Paul Casey | $10,500 | $9,500 | $18,400 | 2.155 | 55.859 | 0 | 0.41 | -0.116 | -0.114 | 0.045 |
| Peter Uihlein | $7,700 | $6,200 | $15,100 | 0.524 | 19.559 | 0 | 0 | 0.157 | 0 | 0.039 |
| Bud Cauley | $7,600 | $6,900 | $15,800 | 1.187 | 30.799 | 0 | 0 | 0.124 | 0 | 0.031 |
| Chris Stroud | $7,200 | $4,600 | $12,700 | 0.723 | -8.766 | -0.289 | 0 | 0.013 | 0.397 | 0.03 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $8,200 | $5,600 | $16,500 | 0.824 | 14.632 | 0 | -0.011 | 0.127 | 0 | 0.029 |
| Martin Flores | $7,400 | $4,600 | $12,700 | 0.687 | 20.058 | -0.19 | 0 | 0.146 | 0.153 | 0.027 |
| Grayson Murray | $8,100 | $6,800 | $15,200 | 0.896 | 24.303 | 0 | 0 | 0.067 | 0 | 0.017 |
| Pat Perez | $9,000 | $7,600 | $15,700 | 1.234 | 42.359 | -0.612 | -0.129 | 0.23 | 0.576 | 0.016 |
| Kevin Tway | $7,000 | $5,300 | $13,200 | 0.366 | 14.803 | 0 | 0 | 0.051 | 0 | 0.013 |
| C.T. Pan | $7,000 | $4,900 | $12,800 | 0.678 | 10.268 | 0 | 0 | 0.039 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Scott Hend | $7,100 | $5,100 | $14,300 | 0.758 | 27.166 | 0 | 0.021 | 0.017 | 0 | 0.009 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $9,800 | $8,100 | $16,500 | 1.756 | 27.26 | 0 | 0.148 | -0.114 | 0 | 0.008 |
| Lucas Glover | $7,500 | $6,200 | $14,400 | 0.921 | 39.371 | 0.201 | 0 | 0.252 | -0.449 | 0.001 |
| David Lipsky | $7,100 | $4,800 | $12,700 | -0.768 | 12.755 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poom Saksansin | $7,300 | $4,500 | $11,100 | 0 | 9.286 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jazz Janewattananond | $6,800 | $4,600 | $11,600 | -0.56 | 8.138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hao Tong Li | $7,300 | $6,700 | $14,800 | 0.144 | 3.597 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SSP Chawrasia | $6,800 | $4,500 | $11,400 | -1.121 | 2.891 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juvic Pagunsan | $7,100 | $4,500 | $11,300 | -0.304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Prayad Marksaeng | $6,800 | $4,600 | $11,300 | -0.678 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard T. Lee | $6,900 | $4,600 | $11,000 | -1.456 | -1.881 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gavin Green | $7,100 | $4,500 | $14,300 | 0 | -5.381 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wesley Bryan | $6,800 | $5,200 | $13,000 | 0.752 | -5.74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Chia | $6,800 | $4,500 | $10,800 | -1.95 | -7.982 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phachara Khongwatmai | $7,300 | $4,500 | $11,800 | -2.778 | -8.523 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Fung | $6,900 | $4,500 | $11,000 | -1.517 | -8.982 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Pieters | $8,600 | $8,000 | $16,200 | 1.7 | -15.578 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,600 | $7,200 | $15,600 | 1.22 | 42.371 | -0.002 | 0 | -0.014 | 0 | -0.004 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,600 | $7,000 | $15,000 | 0.778 | 25.735 | 0.172 | 0 | -0.006 | -0.196 | -0.007 |
| Hudson Swafford | $6,900 | $5,500 | $14,100 | 0.872 | 24.76 | 0.22 | 0 | 0.084 | -0.359 | -0.014 |
| Robert Streb | $6,900 | $5,800 | $13,300 | 1.16 | 8.204 | 0.029 | -0.062 | 0.086 | -0.157 | -0.026 |
| Rod Pampling | $6,900 | $4,700 | $11,600 | 0.124 | -3.176 | 0 | 0 | -0.12 | 0 | -0.03 |
| Graham DeLaet | $7,500 | $6,600 | $15,900 | 1.295 | 9.556 | 0 | 0 | -0.134 | 0 | -0.033 |
| Gary Woodland | $8,700 | $7,900 | $16,400 | 1.543 | 22.787 | 0 | -0.175 | 0.055 | -0.04 | -0.04 |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $8,000 | $7,300 | $15,200 | 1.013 | 13.129 | 0 | 0 | -0.19 | 0 | -0.048 |
| Branden Grace | $9,200 | $8,700 | $16,200 | 1.495 | 15.087 | 0 | 0.047 | -0.24 | 0 | -0.048 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,500 | $7,000 | $14,500 | 0.806 | 9.26 | 0 | -0.595 | 0.386 | 0 | -0.052 |
| Davis Love III | $7,200 | $4,700 | $12,600 | 0.101 | 12.944 | 0 | 0 | -0.222 | 0 | -0.055 |
| Stewart Cink | $7,000 | $6,100 | $13,400 | 1.149 | 21.688 | -0.013 | 0 | 0.128 | -0.444 | -0.082 |
| Sung Kang | $6,900 | $5,500 | $13,200 | 1.056 | 9.355 | 0 | 0 | -0.183 | -0.208 | -0.098 |
| Scott Brown | $6,800 | $6,000 | $13,100 | 0.768 | 20.803 | -0.224 | 0 | -0.33 | 0.156 | -0.1 |
| Xander Schauffele | $9,700 | $8,200 | $16,700 | 1.362 | 41.859 | 0 | 0 | -0.439 | 0 | -0.11 |
| Danny Lee | $7,200 | $5,700 | $12,900 | 1.038 | -10.042 | -0.342 | -0.181 | -0.009 | -0.08 | -0.153 |
| Kelly Kraft | $6,900 | $4,800 | $12,000 | 0.215 | -10.386 | 0 | 0 | -0.626 | 0 | -0.157 |
| Jason Dufner | $7,900 | $8,800 | $15,200 | 1.486 | 27.303 | 0 | -0.398 | -0.043 | -0.242 | -0.171 |
| Chad Campbell | $6,800 | $6,000 | $12,800 | 1.01 | 1.265 | -0.18 | 0 | -0.353 | -0.17 | -0.176 |
| Colt Knost | $6,800 | NA | $11,100 | 0.777 | -14.109 | -0.881 | 0 | -0.002 | -0.127 | -0.252 |
| Morgan Hoffmann | $7,200 | $5,200 | $12,800 | 0.641 | 11.268 | -0.933 | 0 | -0.357 | -0.126 | -0.354 |