Searching for a Specialist: CIMB Classic

by Josh Culp (futureoffantasy) Last Updated 2018-10-09 21:24:08

Returning to Malaysia for a ninth straight season, it’s time to see who fits the course here as we ready for the Asian swing.

It’s weeks like this where I’m really excited to see what the specialist search produces. We have a course that has undergone renovations since last year, so we can dive through to see who might enjoy the switch from paspalum to bermuda.

A quick review of last week, our specialists went 3-for-3 but they all backpedaled over the weekend. Not a killer week, in either direction.

This week we look at performance on Bermuda Greens, Par 72 courses, performance in No-Cut Events, performance in the Fall, and performance on Short Courses.

You may notice a three-angle overlap from last week, which explains why we often see a nice correlation between the Safeway and CIMB Classic.

Here we go …

Bermuda Greens

TPC KL has undergone a big update since last year:

“The new grasses are identical to those at TPC Sawgrass, home to The Players Championship which is the PGA TOUR’s annual flagship tournament in the United States. Whilst TifEagle Bermuda grass has been planted on the greens to provide a consistently fast and true putting surface, Celebration Bermuda grass has been planted on all the tee boxes and fairways, as well as bunker and green surrounds.”

The 10 Bermuda Specialists:

Si Woo Kim (1.402 sg:bermuda vs. 0.799 sg:total)
Ollie Schniederjans (1.717 sg:bermuda vs. 1.149 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (2.394 sg:bermuda vs. 1.884 sg:total)
Nick Watney (1.613 sg:bermuda vs. 1.105 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.481 sg:bermuda vs. 1.003 sg:total)
Ryan Moore (2.178 sg:bermuda vs. 1.704 sg:total)
Jamie Lovemark (1.782 sg:bermuda vs. 1.361 sg:total)
Billy Horschel (1.859 sg:bermuda vs. 1.465 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.848 sg:bermuda vs. 1.461 sg:total)
Brian Gay (1.414 sg:bermuda vs. 1.031 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on bermuda since 2014 are Justin Thomas, Billy Horschel, Jason Dufner, Marc Leishman, and Ryan Moore.

Si Woo Kim has two wins on bermuda (Wyndham and PLAYERS).

Horschel is on the record for loving bermuda, so it’s no surprise to see he’s gained more total strokes on bermuda than anyone in the field not named Justin Thomas.

Par 72 Courses

TPC Kuala Lumpur is another short, par 72, similar to last week’s Silverado Resort and Spa’s North Course.

Knowing there are some easy holes to lean on is comforting for many. Let’s see who enjoys the par 72 layouts…

The Top 10 Par 72 Specialists:

Ryan Palmer (1.713 sg:par72 vs. 1.224 sg:total)
Andrew Putnam (1.333 sg:par72 vs. 0.876 sg:total)
Byeong Hun An (1.952 sg:par72 vs. 1.534 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.834 sg:par72 vs. 1.484 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.415 sg:par72 vs. 1.071 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (2.236 sg:par72 vs. 1.915 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (1.27 sg:par72 vs. 0.956 sg:total)
Sam Ryder (1.176 sg:par72 vs. 0.89 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (1.065 sg:par72 vs. 0.799 sg:total)
Charles Howell III (1.816 sg:par72 vs. 1.551 sg:total)

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on par 72 courses since 2014 are Keegan Bradley, Marc Leishman, Paul Casey, Brendan Steele, and Justin Thomas

Plenty of ball-strikers on these lists. I guess to fully take advantage of the par 5s, you want to be solid from tee-to-green.

No-Cut Events

A no-cut event means that you are always just one low round away from roaring back into contention. That is especially true for someone like Justin Thomas who typically has one extremely-low round in him if you give him four chances.

The Top 10 No-Cut Specialists:

Anirban Lahiri (1.744 sg:no-cut vs. 1.031 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.751 sg:no-cut vs. 1.174 sg:total)
Keegan Bradley (2.131 sg:no-cut vs. 1.617 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (2.894 sg:no-cut vs. 2.397 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.773 sg:no-cut vs. 1.399 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.427 sg:no-cut vs. 1.071 sg:total)
Ryan Moore (2.019 sg:no-cut vs. 1.704 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (1.331 sg:no-cut vs. 1.029 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (2.179 sg:no-cut vs. 1.884 sg:total)
Thomas Pieters (1.82 sg:no-cut vs. 1.525 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in no-cut events since 2014 are Justin Thomas, Paul Casey, Marc Leishman, Rafa Cabrera Bello, and Gary Woodland.

Justin Thomas is the King of No Cuts. Looking at his resume of TOUR wins, five of his nine wins have come in no-cut events with another coming at TPC Boston where only 30 golfers are cut.

The list overall is just loaded with birdie-makers. If you give them enough chances, the birdies will flow over the course of 72 holes.

Fall Season

This time of year brings weaker fields and shorter courses.

For some, the fall season represents the chance to hit the reset button.

The Top 10 Fall Specialists:

Anirban Lahiri (1.828 sg:fall vs. 1.031 sg:total)
Davis Love III (0.5 sg:fall vs. -0.058 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (1.576 sg:fall vs. 1.029 sg:total)
Ryan Moore (2.235 sg:fall vs. 1.704 sg:total)
Brice Garnett (1.01 sg:fall vs. 0.558 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.444 sg:fall vs. 1.003 sg:total)
Whee Kim (0.966 sg:fall vs. 0.548 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.879 sg:fall vs. 1.484 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.45 sg:fall vs. 1.174 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (2.17 sg:fall vs. 1.915 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in the fall since 2014 are Chez Reavie, Ryan Moore, Justin Thomas, Charles Howell III, and Pat Perez.

This top-10 list is not exactly a lineup of mashers. It goes back to the idea that the fall schedule gets the shorter hitters a chance to shine, the way these courses are set up.

Short Courses

This par 72 plays to just 7,005 yards which is one of the shortest courses on TOUR when you adjust to par value.

There are five par 4s under 420 yards. There are three par 5s under 540 yards.

The big hitters will have a ton of wedges in hand this week, but even the shorter hitters will be getting a ton of good looks with the scoring clubs.

The Top 10 Short Course Specialists:

Anirban Lahiri (1.86 sg:short vs. 1.031 sg:total)
Ted Potter, Jr. (1.423 sg:short vs. 0.757 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (2.526 sg:short vs. 1.884 sg:total)
Brice Garnett (1.161 sg:short vs. 0.558 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.74 sg:short vs. 1.174 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.546 sg:short vs. 1.003 sg:total)
Davis Love III (0.414 sg:short vs. -0.058 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.936 sg:short vs. 1.484 sg:total)
Pat Perez (2.015 sg:short vs. 1.564 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (1.25 sg:short vs. 0.799 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on short courses since 2014 are Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Na, Anirban Lahiri, Keegan Bradley, and Marc Leishman.

One thing I just noticed is that Anirban Lahiri checked in as #1 on the list for each of the last three angles. He’s in rough form, but it looks like a solid fit. His win here on the Euro Tour backs that claim up.

The Specialist

Ryan Moore

The specialist this week is Ryan Moore!

ryan-moore-800x480

The Washington native is a two-time winner here. He’s arriving off a near-win at last week’s Safeway Open.

Perhaps all those days in the rainy Northwest have prepared him well for TPC KL where rain is often in the forecast when the PGA TOUR rolls through.

Moore has played 16 rounds here and he’s been T17 or better after all but one of those. Give his course fit, course history, and current form, it would be very surprising to see him lay an egg this week.

The Anti-Specialists

We have a few golfers that qualify as specialists this week, but who does the opposite, grading out negatively in all of the angles?

Nobody

With a limited field on hand and about an eighth of them coming from the Asian Tour, it’s easy to understand how our sample gives us fewer options this week. Two golfers that are less than -0.25 in the specialist rating are Abraham Ancer and Xander Schauffele. Not necessarily an auto-fade but certainly candidates to underperform. Xander did play well here last year, though.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Justin Thomas
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Marc Leishman
Keegan Bradley
Paul Casey
Billy Horschel
Brandt Snedeker
Ryan Moore
Louis Oosthuizen
Gary Woodland
Kevin Na
Kyle Stanley
Emiliano Grillo
Pat Perez
Chez Reavie
Cameron Smith
Xander Schauffele
Byeong Hun An
C.T. Pan
Branden Grace

JT at the top with RCB popping in for second place. There is a pretty steep dropoff after that, so take that for what you will if you are leaning heavily on this angle.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted, so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made small adjustments for sample sizes but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at SGTotal, FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

Golfer	DK	FD	FDRFT	SG: Total	History	Form	Bermuda	Fall	No Cut	Par 72	Short	Specialist Rating	Simple Rating
Ryan Moore	$10,900	$11,600	$17,100	1.704	2.113	18.833	0.474	0.531	0.315	0.133	0.266	0.344	100
Anirban Lahiri	$6,900	$8,500	$14,000	1.031	1.941	-1.617	-0.736	0.797	0.713	0.057	0.829	0.332	264
J.J. Spaun	$6,700	$7,500	$12,900	1.003	0	19.812	0.478	0.441	0	0.092	0.543	0.311	198
Rafa Cabrera Bello	$9,300	$11,100	$15,600	1.884	1.811	52.434	0.51	0	0.295	0.008	0.642	0.291	24
Davis Love III	$6,300	$7,400	$11,000	-0.058	1.09	2.193	0.27	0.558	0	0.132	0.471	0.286	334
Cameron Smith	$8,400	$9,700	$15,500	1.174	1.897	42.5	-0.185	0.277	0.577	0.007	0.566	0.248	125
Brice Garnett	$7,000	$7,600	$12,700	0.558	-0.201	37.22	-0.334	0.452	0	0.111	0.603	0.166	211
Scott Piercy	$7,200	$7,500	$13,300	1.029	0.91	9.392	-0.071	0.548	0.302	-0.242	0.293	0.166	230
Brendan Steele	$6,800	$7,900	$12,900	1.484	2.032	-6.354	-0.199	0.395	-0.256	0.35	0.452	0.148	213
Pat Perez	$8,300	$9,200	$14,300	1.564	2.021	19.502	0.056	-0.15	0.173	0.197	0.451	0.146	118
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	$7,300	$9,800	$13,600	1.071	1.375	-2.425	0	0	0.357	0.344	0	0.14	260
Jimmy Walker	$7,400	$8,800	$13,800	1.46	0.982	11.425	0.374	0	0.107	0.173	-0.001	0.131	170
Marc Leishman	$9,800	$10,400	$16,200	1.915	1.428	33.5	0.114	0.255	-0.09	0.321	-0.064	0.107	50
Si Woo Kim	$7,400	$8,200	$13,600	0.799	-0.725	-5.83	0.603	-0.346	-0.444	0.266	0.451	0.106	318
Kyle Stanley	$9,000	$9,300	$15,600	1.399	1.278	39.269	0.07	0.022	0.374	0.214	-0.151	0.106	115
Justin Thomas	$11,700	$13,000	$19,000	2.397	2.91	71	0.144	-0.037	0.496	0.043	-0.136	0.102	23
Sam Ryder	$7,700	$7,800	$14,200	0.89	0	15.548	0	0	0	0.285	0.218	0.101	242
Billy Horschel	$10,700	$10,400	$16,900	1.465	0.774	76.459	0.394	0	0.171	-0.1	0	0.093	86
Jamie Lovemark	$6,800	$8,300	$13,100	1.361	0.801	7.315	0.421	-0.05	0	0.217	-0.143	0.089	204
Keegan Bradley	$9,900	$10,600	$16,000	1.617	2.452	45	-0.367	0.013	0.514	0.219	0.061	0.088	70
C.T. Pan	$8,000	$8,500	$14,900	1.113	1.366	43.099	0.318	0.019	0	-0.183	0.278	0.086	142
Chesson Hadley	$6,800	$8,000	$12,900	0.956	-0.655	2.892	0.341	-0.153	0	0.314	-0.1	0.08	268
Kevin Chappell	$7,300	$8,900	$13,600	1.461	0.849	7.711	0.387	-0.207	-0.048	0.157	0.046	0.067	186
Paul Casey	$10,200	$10,900	$16,400	2.342	1.741	24.276	0.048	0.013	0.235	0.038	-0.008	0.065	72
Andrew Putnam	$6,900	$7,800	$12,900	0.876	0	19.812	-0.096	-0.071	0	0.457	0	0.058	241
Chez Reavie	$7,600	$8,300	$14,400	1.479	0.827	28.002	0.23	0.082	0	-0.069	0.043	0.057	123
Brian Gay	$6,900	$7,900	$13,400	1.031	0.054	18.934	0.383	0	0	-0.103	-0.004	0.055	226
Tom Hoge	$7,000	$7,400	$13,000	0.672	0	10.998	-0.097	0.014	0	0.217	0.142	0.055	284
Troy Merritt	$6,900	$7,700	$13,300	0.659	0.572	-8.331	0.174	-0.105	0	0.051	0.116	0.047	350
Brandt Snedeker	$9,100	$10,700	$15,700	1.73	0	31.008	-0.022	-0.11	-0.252	0.142	0.341	0.02	86
Whee Kim	$6,700	$7,300	$12,300	0.548	0.596	0.283	-0.584	0.417	0	0.207	0.026	0.013	330
Kevin Tway	$8,200	$10,000	$15,200	1.055	0.75	25.212	-0.163	-0.105	0	0.25	0.076	0.011	192
Beau Hossler	$7,800	$8,400	$14,400	1.354	0	19.581	0.018	0	0	-0.035	0.032	0.003	187
Justin Harding	$6,500	$7,400	$11,700	0.145	0	0.603	0	0	0	0	0	0	346
Scott Vincent	$6,500	$7,000	$12,400	0.063	0	2.003	0	0	0	0	0	0	347
Gaganjeet Bhullar	$6,400	$7,000	$11,800	-0.046	-0.16	6.836	0	0	0	0	0	0	350
John Catlin	$6,400	$7,000	$12,000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	356
Rahil Gangjee	$6,300	$7,000	$10,400	0	0.43	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	356
Berry Henson	$6,400	$7,000	$10,900	0	-0.496	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	356
Kim Leun-Kwang	$6,300	$7,000	$10,100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	356
Shubhankar Sharma	$6,500	$7,800	$11,900	0.232	0	-2.909	0	0	0	0	0	0	369
Ben Leong	$6,500	$7,000	$10,700	-0.406	-0.834	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	377
Sang-Hyun Park	$6,600	$7,300	$12,100	-0.446	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	380
Minchel Choi	$6,300	$7,200	$10,300	-1.446	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	383
Sihwan Kim	$6,500	$7,000	$11,700	-2.544	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	386
Satoshi Kodaira	$6,300	$7,200	$11,600	-0.127	0	-13.51	0	0	0	0	0	0	412
Austin Cook	$7,100	$8,100	$13,400	1.5	0	23.812	0.121	0	0	-0.181	0	-0.012	148
Charles Howell III	$7,900	$9,100	$14,400	1.551	0.972	14.098	-0.06	-0.064	-0.213	0.266	0.001	-0.014	175
Brian Stuard	$6,700	$7,500	$12,200	0.644	-0.072	22.679	0.054	0.089	0	-0.145	-0.11	-0.022	275
Stewart Cink	$7,200	$8,700	$13,600	1.384	1.544	18.211	-0.054	-0.076	0	-0.117	0.027	-0.044	210
Ryan Palmer	$6,600	$7,900	$12,500	1.224	-0.018	3.167	-0.273	0	-0.102	0.488	-0.408	-0.059	253
Louis Oosthuizen	$8,800	$10,200	$15,600	1.876	1.201	25.995	0.127	0	-0.647	0.045	0.143	-0.066	105
Emiliano Grillo	$9,500	$9,000	$15,500	1.661	0.441	31.312	0.231	0.178	-0.753	0.063	-0.053	-0.067	116
Thomas Pieters	$7,500	$9,700	$13,900	1.525	1.047	23.442	0	0	0.295	-0.663	0	-0.074	155
Byeong Hun An	$8,900	$9,500	$15,500	1.534	0.497	34.812	0.314	0	-0.598	0.418	-0.514	-0.076	129
Peter Uihlein	$7,700	$8,600	$14,500	1.393	1.608	23.67	-0.446	0	0	0.039	0	-0.081	185
Michael Kim	$6,600	$7,100	$11,900	0.591	0.904	-10.331	-0.468	0.083	0	0.116	-0.182	-0.09	388
Ted Potter, Jr.	$6,600	$7,300	$12,200	0.757	0	20.312	-0.033	0	0	-1.098	0.666	-0.093	281
Ollie Schniederjans	$6,700	$7,400	$12,200	1.149	1.058	4.523	0.568	-0.615	0	-0.322	-0.119	-0.097	265
J.B. Holmes	$8,500	$8,600	$14,700	1.508	-0.058	7.479	-0.344	0	-0.35	0.219	-0.044	-0.104	210
Bronson Burgoon	$7,500	$7,600	$13,300	0.883	0	13.679	-0.418	0	0	-0.044	-0.129	-0.118	295
Jason Dufner	$6,800	$7,800	$12,700	1.413	-0.629	-7.709	0.338	0	-0.663	-0.048	-0.237	-0.122	283
James Hahn	$6,700	$7,600	$12,400	1.058	1.641	7.979	-0.32	-0.05	0.043	0.06	-0.346	-0.122	269
Jon Curran	$6,300	$7,000	$10,400	0.29	-0.055	0	-0.588	-0.232	0	0.251	-0.057	-0.125	371
Ryan Armour	$6,800	$7,400	$12,900	0.922	0	21.703	0.088	-0.379	0	-0.419	0.08	-0.126	263
Jason Kokrak	$7,100	$8,400	$13,600	1.315	0	46.934	-0.077	-0.231	0	-0.288	-0.042	-0.128	171
Danny Lee	$8,100	$8,700	$14,900	1.042	1.095	23.712	-0.214	-0.158	-0.353	0.006	0.03	-0.138	236
Branden Grace	$8,700	$10,100	$14,900	1.732	1.091	21.229	-0.239	0	-0.304	-0.075	-0.112	-0.146	142
Kelly Kraft	$6,400	$7,100	$11,500	0.424	0.289	-7.831	-0.158	-0.128	0	-0.355	-0.104	-0.149	403
Joel Dahmen	$7,000	$7,200	$12,700	0.924	0	-8.935	0.073	0	0	-0.628	-0.195	-0.15	363
Ernie Els	$6,400	$7,100	$11,000	0.287	-0.821	6.108	0.034	0	-0.269	-0.156	-0.374	-0.153	365
Keith Mitchell	$6,900	$7,700	$12,600	1.058	0	14.385	0.338	0	0	-0.613	-0.519	-0.159	269
Gary Woodland	$9,700	$10,500	$16,100	1.696	0.922	59	0.201	-0.338	-0.255	-0.16	-0.345	-0.179	109
Kevin Na	$8,600	$9,400	$15,100	1.73	1.541	42.69	-0.217	0.107	-0.441	-0.351	-0.032	-0.187	113
Scott Stallings	$6,600	$7,500	$12,700	0.828	0.689	18.679	-0.306	-0.299	0	-0.401	0.06	-0.189	308
Nick Watney	$7,100	$7,900	$12,900	1.105	0.325	19.014	0.508	-1.184	0	-0.093	-0.183	-0.19	252
Abraham Ancer	$7,100	$8,200	$13,600	0.877	0	27.885	-0.59	0	0	-0.158	-0.565	-0.262	266
Xander Schauffele	$10,400	$11,800	$16,700	1.586	2.289	47.286	0.032	-0.731	0.193	-0.589	-0.75	-0.369	127