Searching for a Specialist: CIMB Classic
Grab your umbrellas and let’s get our research started for this week’s CIMB Classic. The event is in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and there are plenty of storms in the forecast. Aren’t you glad you brought that umbrella now?
Let’s kick off our search for a course specialist by looking at historical performance on par 72 courses, performance on short courses, weak field output, and end up by looking at historical output on courses that feature easy greens to hit.
I also include a nice addition to the spreadsheet linked at the end of the article. This week, I made sure to include a baseline Strokes Gained:Total, using stats since the start of the 2013-14 season. This provides us with a starting point, so we can adjust from there.
Par 72 Courses
The process here is to look at overall performance since the start of the 2013-14 season and compare that to performance on courses that feature a par 72 scorecard.
Par 72 courses include four par 5s, so golfers that can feast on the par 5s are often who excel on these venues. Historical performance these type of courses can be a huge predictor of future success on similar par 72 tracks.
Here are the top 10 par 72 specialists in this week’s field:
Marc Leishman (1.355 sg:par72 vs. 0.722 sg:total)
Scott Pinckney (0.3 sg:par72 vs. -0.217 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (0.549 sg:par72 vs. 0.082 sg:total)
Jon Curran (0.514 sg:par72 vs. 0.061 sg:total)
Kevin Na (1.47 sg:par72 vs. 1.033 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (0.079 sg:par72 vs. -0.337 sg:total)
Rory Sabbatini (0.524 sg:par72 vs. 0.136 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (0.988 sg:par72 vs. 0.675 sg:total)
Steven Bowditch (0.199 sg:par72 vs. -0.065 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (1.191 sg:par72 vs. 0.927 sg:total)
Everyone else that performs better on par 72 courses: Nick Taylor, Sergio Garcia, Ryo Ishikawa, Ryan Moore, Jerry Kelly, Pat Perez, Robert Streb, Tony Finau, Carlos Ortiz, Colt Knost, Matt Jones, Kevin Kisner, Stewart Cink, Danny Lee, Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, Charles Howell III, David Lingmerth, Harris English, Padraig Harrington, Jim Herman, Daniel Berger, Brendon de Jonge, Anirban Lahiri, Matt Every, Adam Scott, Hudson Swafford.
Every week we cut out a few top dogs with our initial cuts. This week we lost Henrik Stenson, Paul Casey, and Keegan Bradley.
All three of these cases are due to consistent performances regardless of the course. The Swede struggles to find a course that doesn’t suit his eye. For that reason, he will naturally be a good play every week, but not a specialists.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 37
Short Courses
It’s no secret that the PGA TOUR is starting to cater their courses to bombers. The fairways are widening and yardages are stretching further and further.
That’s not the case this week as Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club checks in at just 6,951 yards. Remarkably short for a par 72 course. It makes up for that lack of length with its layout. Course design forces golfers to club down and hit to the same landing areas on many of the holes.
That puts all of our short course specialists into play this week.
Of the 37 par 72 specialists we have remaining, here are the top 10 golfers in terms of short course performance compared to their typical output:
Gary Woodland (1.893 sg:short vs. 0.675 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.149 sg:short vs. 0.318 sg:total)
Harris English (1.638 sg:short vs. 0.832 sg:total)
Matt Every (0.395 sg:short vs. -0.381 sg:total)
Ryan Moore (1.438 sg:short vs. 0.804 sg:total)
Rory Sabbatini (0.755 sg:short vs. 0.136 sg:total)
Brendon de Jonge (0.788 sg:short vs. 0.336 sg:total)
Colt Knost (0.612 sg:short vs. 0.213 sg:total)
Hudson Swafford (0.484 sg:short vs. 0.134 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (0.843 sg:short vs. 0.516 sg:total)
We can eliminate 20 more golfers at this stage as they just haven’t performed as well on shorter layouts.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 17
Weak Field Performance
Performance against weak fields is an important factor to look at. The course is less than 80 golfers deep and there is no cut. Just because the field is limited, doesn’t mean it is strong. Last year, it weighed in at 228 on the OWGR strength of field rating.
Looking at all events with an OWGR rating of 250 or easier, these golfers pass the test and make up our list of specialists for the week:
Matt Every (0.674 sg:weak vs. -0.381 sg:total)
Ryan Moore (1.698 sg:weak vs. 0.804 sg:total)
Steven Bowditch (0.624 sg:weak vs. -0.065 sg:total)
Tony Finau (1.143 sg:weak vs. 0.759 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (0.852 sg:weak vs. 0.516 sg:total)
Brendon de Jonge (0.672 sg:weak vs. 0.336 sg:total)
Robert Streb (1.053 sg:weak vs. 0.754 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (0.971 sg:weak vs. 0.69 sg:total)
Jerry Kelly (0.849 sg:weak vs. 0.645 sg:total)
Hudson Swafford (0.272 sg:weak vs. 0.134 sg:total)
Jon Curran (0.166 sg:weak vs. 0.061 sg:total)
Rory Sabbatini (0.195 sg:weak vs. 0.136 sg:total)
We only lost four golfers during this stage. Those four golfers are Gary Woodland, Pat Perez, Matt Jones, and Harris English.
It’s important to note the baseline SG:Total for these golfers as they are all over 0.300 strokes gained. Even if they prefer a stronger field, they can still take care of business this week.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 12
Easy GIR
This venue has only hosted the CIMB Classic twice now, but each time it’s been moist to say the least. With plenty of rain in the forecast again this week, that means ball-in-hand will likely be used yet again.
If you give these pro golfers a chance to pick up their ball, clean it, and place it down nice just how they want to, it’s going to be easy to hold the greens.
Courses with easy greens to hit can take out the element of scrambling. These are the remaining specialists in terms of Easy GIR courses (sg:easy GIR):
Robert Streb (1.363 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.754 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (1.235 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.69 sg:total)
Jerry Kelly (1.176 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.645 sg:total)
Rory Sabbatini (0.599 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.136 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (0.938 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.516 sg:total)
Brendon de Jonge (0.718 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.336 sg:total)
Hudson Swafford (0.369 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.134 sg:total)
Ryan Moore (0.932 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.804 sg:total)
Tony Finau (0.793 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.759 sg:total)
GOLFERS REMAINING: 9
The Specialist
We’ve narrowed down the field to just nine specialists. They include the following names:
Robert Streb
Patrick Reed
Jerry Kelly
Rory Sabbatini
Kevin Kisner
Brendon de Jonge
Hudson Swafford
Ryan Moore
Tony Finau
This is a good crop of specialists and all of them start with a baseline SG:Total higher than field average!
If we average up all the specialists angles, the man on top is Ryan Moore. He is our specialist this week in Malaysia. It’s no wonder he’s won this event in back-to-back editions!
The full Specialist Table is available for you to sort and filter to your heart’s desire. Best of luck in all your matchups this week.