Searching for a Specialist: CJ Cup
The PGA TOUR stays in Asia but heads to Korea for this week’s inaugural CJ Cup at Nine Bridges.
The course is a par 72 with bentgrass greens and there is no cut this week. Another condensed field with just 78 golfers pegging it on Jeju Island.
Recapping last week, Justin Thomas was our specialist and he fell short in his bid for a three-peat. He did scoop up 21 birdies and an eagle so all was not lost for those that took the plunge on JT last week.
For this week’s event, we don’t have any history on the course, but we can try to narrow down course fit by looking at performance on Par 72 Courses, performance in No-Cut Events, performance on Bentgrass Greens, performance in the Fall, and finish up with performance in Cold Weather.
Here we go …
Par 72 Courses
This week’s course is a stock par 72, which means we’ll see a four pack of par 5s each round.
Let’s see what golfers prefer the layouts where they can bail themselves out once or twice a round with a bounce-back birdie on a par 5…
The 10 Par 72 Specialists:
Cody Gribble (1.266 sg:par72 vs. 0.489 sg:total)
Ryan Ruffels (0.446 sg:par72 vs. -0.267 sg:total)
Luke List (1.666 sg:par72 vs. 1.318 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.586 sg:par72 vs. 1.307 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (2.013 sg:par72 vs. 1.736 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (1.219 sg:par72 vs. 0.958 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (0.922 sg:par72 vs. 0.67 sg:total)
Harold Varner III (1.139 sg:par72 vs. 0.896 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (0.952 sg:par72 vs. 0.72 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (1.739 sg:par72 vs. 1.513 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim played his way down this list a bit last week, but Gribble still holds down the top spot. His T32 last week lowered his Strokes Gained on Par 72s just a little, but he’s still been much better on courses with four par 5s.
The rest of the list is not short in supply of ball-striking. It’s not the strongest group of putters, though. Perhaps there is something to the fact that more par 5s lowers the stress a bit, from a flat-stick perspective. Missing a 10-footer for eagle is not so tilting when you can just tap in for birdie and move along with your round.
Performance in the Fall
The Fall provides a good chance for the above-average TOUR talent to beat up on weaker competition.
The Top 10 Fall Specialists are:
Anirban Lahiri (1.774 sg:fall vs. 0.872 sg:total)
Russell Henley (2.06 sg:fall vs. 1.283 sg:total)
Luke List (1.832 sg:fall vs. 1.318 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (1.19 sg:fall vs. 0.682 sg:total)
James Hahn (1.271 sg:fall vs. 0.838 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (1.86 sg:fall vs. 1.458 sg:total)
Camilo Villegas (1.079 sg:fall vs. 0.704 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (1.267 sg:fall vs. 0.958 sg:total)
Tony Finau (1.925 sg:fall vs. 1.622 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (0.967 sg:fall vs. 0.67 sg:total)
If you’re having a putt-putt draft, most of this list is going to be drafted in the later rounds. Is there something about the green conditions during the fall that allows poor putters to shine? Or is it just because their ball-striking is that elite compared to the weaker fields often seen in the fall? I could see the case being made for both arguments.
No-Cut Events
These events give golfers four guaranteed rounds to let the cream rise to the top. Rather than missing the cut on the number and missing out on a backdoor top 20, golfers can play stress-free golf, knowing they have a paycheck coming at the end of the week.
For golfers that are trying to play a condensed schedule or balance multiple tours, these type of events also provide a good opportunity to pick up some free FedExCup Points.
The Top 10 No-Cut Specialists:
Justin Thomas (2.532 sg:no-cut vs. 1.912 sg:total)
Graeme McDowell (1.88 sg:no-cut vs. 1.299 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (2.137 sg:no-cut vs. 1.67 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.582 sg:no-cut vs. 2.179 sg:total)
Keegan Bradley (1.857 sg:no-cut vs. 1.536 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.531 sg:no-cut vs. 1.307 sg:total)
James Hahn (1.052 sg:no-cut vs. 0.838 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (1.696 sg:no-cut vs. 1.513 sg:total)
Adam Scott (2.532 sg:no-cut vs. 2.381 sg:total)
Ian Poulter (1.402 sg:no-cut vs. 1.306 sg:total)
Some golfers may use this as a nice bonus event with a free paycheck, but who gets into contention most often in no-cut events. Since 2014, Paul Casey and Adam Scott have the most top-5 worth finishes in no-cut events. They’ve thrown their names into contention in more than 33 percent of those starts. That’s the kind of upside we like to see out of a team anchor.
Bentgrass Greens
When bentgrass greens roll around, it typically gives an edge to the tee-to-green specialists. With bermuda there is a skill to reading lies in the rough as well as reading grain on the greens.
Without those issues, ball-strikers are able to shine, so lets see who pops on bentgrass…
The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists:
Xander Schauffele (2.242 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.461 sg:total)
Thomas Pieters (2.135 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.637 sg:total)
Chad Campbell (1.451 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.006 sg:total)
Kevin Tway (0.786 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.393 sg:total)
Chris Stroud (1.069 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.686 sg:total)
Ian Poulter (1.666 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.306 sg:total)
Danny Lee (1.335 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.071 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.041 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.802 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (1.908 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.67 sg:total)
Russell Henley (1.506 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.283 sg:total)
The jury is still out on HOW EXTREME Xander’s bentgrass split truly is. His sample is still pretty small as a second-year man. Did he happen to catch fire when the TOUR went to a bunch of bentgrass courses or does it truly perform better on bentgrass? The severity of this split suggests he really does perform better on bent, but his win at East Lake came on bermuda. Let’s not crown him the king of bentgrass quite yet. There is still a lot to learn on young Schauffele.
Ian Poulter and Thomas Pieters are two golfers who I’d expect to see their splits remain in favor of bentgrass. Growing up and playing plenty of rounds in Europe, both of these guys have likely played a majority of their golf on bentgrass. Poulter has lived in Florida for while which might help him with bermuda performance, but overall he still plays better on bentgrass.
Cold Weather
This week’s weather forecast call for temps in the mid to upper 60s.
That sounds perfect for a lot of us who golf for fun, but for these TOUR pros, they are used to pegging it in the upper 70s and lower 80s, most commonly.
The Top 10 Cold Weather Specialists:
K.J. Choi (1.528 sg:cold weather vs. 0.67 sg:total)
Kelly Kraft (1.028 sg:cold weather vs. 0.229 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (2.317 sg:cold weather vs. 1.736 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (1.982 sg:cold weather vs. 1.471 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (1.119 sg:cold weather vs. 0.67 sg:total)
Adam Scott (2.824 sg:cold weather vs. 2.381 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.706 sg:cold weather vs. 1.307 sg:total)
Sung Kang (1.456 sg:cold weather vs. 1.116 sg:total)
Branden Grace (1.836 sg:cold weather vs. 1.498 sg:total)
Seung-yul Noh (1.076 sg:cold weather vs. 0.775 sg:total)
Is it a coincidence that three of the top 10 were born in Korea? I’m thinking not. I did a quick search on average temperatures in various cities in South Korea. Most of them show average temperatures below 80 degrees for 10 months a year.
Compare that to some common hubs for PGA TOUR golfers: Scottsdale AZ (7 months over 80 degrees), Jupiter FL (7 months over 80-degree average), and Houston (6 months over 80 degrees). Instead, the climate is more similar to a city like San Fran that sees their average temps eclipse 80 about three months a year.
This is a long way of saying that some of the Korean golfers in the field this week will likely be very comfortable with the climate while some of the Americans will be taking an extra 30 minutes before the round to activate their glutes.
The Specialist
Keegan Bradley
The specialist this week is Keegan Bradley.
Bradley is coming off a runner-up finish but form has nothing to do with his course fit at this week’s course. He looks primed to post another strong finish in Asia.
If we look at his performance in similar events since 2014, his top-20 probability is 10 percent higher than his baseline.
Circling back to the climate issue, if you look at average monthly temps in Boston then they compare very similar to what you see in Jeju, South Korea. Bradley grades out very well this week as he searches for his first victory since 2012.
Super Simple Specialist Ratings
The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.
However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.
Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:
Marc Leishman
Paul Casey
Justin Thomas
Keegan Bradley
Xander Schauffele
Luke List
Pat Perez
Emiliano Grillo
Daniel Berger
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Tony Finau
Stewart Cink
Russell Henley
Lucas Glover
Graeme McDowell
Anirban Lahiri
J.B. Holmes
Kyle Stanley
Ian Poulter
Branden Grace
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014).
Form looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA, Web, and Euro).
| Golfer | DK | FD | FDRFT | SG:Total | Form | Fall | No Cut | Par 72 | Bentgrass | cold weather | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anirban Lahiri | $9,200 | $6,500 | $16,200 | 0.872 | 18.405 | 0.902 | 0.083 | 0.148 | 0.199 | -0.189 | 0.229 |
| Nick Taylor | $7,400 | $5,300 | $13,500 | 0.67 | 16.637 | 0.297 | 0 | 0.252 | 0.033 | 0.449 | 0.206 |
| Marc Leishman | $9,900 | $9,500 | $16,900 | 1.736 | 43.967 | 0 | -0.136 | 0.278 | 0.191 | 0.581 | 0.183 |
| Cody Gribble | $6,900 | $4,800 | $11,800 | 0.489 | 4.137 | 0 | 0 | 0.777 | 0.11 | 0 | 0.177 |
| Graeme McDowell | $6,900 | $6,400 | $13,400 | 1.299 | 7.34 | 0 | 0.581 | 0.043 | -0.035 | 0.135 | 0.145 |
| Ryan Ruffels | $7,300 | $4,700 | $11,900 | -0.267 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.713 | 0 | 0 | 0.143 |
| J.B. Holmes | $8,400 | $8,300 | $15,000 | 1.471 | 2.236 | 0 | -0.036 | 0.2 | -0.008 | 0.511 | 0.133 |
| Keegan Bradley | $9,100 | $7,400 | $16,500 | 1.536 | 39.302 | 0.171 | 0.321 | 0.049 | 0.097 | 0.026 | 0.133 |
| James Hahn | $7,100 | $5,900 | $14,100 | 0.838 | 5.905 | 0.434 | 0.215 | 0.078 | 0.02 | -0.085 | 0.132 |
| Luke List | $7,600 | $5,500 | $14,500 | 1.318 | 40.212 | 0.514 | 0 | 0.348 | -0.145 | -0.075 | 0.129 |
| K.J. Choi | $7,300 | $4,900 | $13,700 | 0.67 | -0.193 | 0 | 0 | 0.041 | -0.337 | 0.858 | 0.112 |
| Xander Schauffele | $9,800 | $8,900 | $17,300 | 1.461 | 57.657 | 0 | 0 | -0.241 | 0.781 | 0 | 0.108 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,200 | $7,000 | $14,700 | 0.802 | 34.157 | 0.249 | 0 | 0.011 | 0.238 | 0.02 | 0.104 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,300 | $6,500 | $14,300 | 1.458 | 27.212 | 0.402 | -0.171 | 0.089 | 0.055 | 0.138 | 0.103 |
| Thomas Pieters | $7,600 | $7,800 | $15,600 | 1.637 | -12.477 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.498 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Adam Scott | $8,500 | $9,800 | $16,400 | 2.381 | -1.27 | 0 | 0.152 | 0.011 | -0.195 | 0.444 | 0.082 |
| Paul Casey | $11,600 | $9,700 | $18,400 | 2.179 | 68.657 | 0 | 0.402 | -0.117 | 0.118 | -0.026 | 0.076 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $7,200 | $5,500 | $13,500 | 0.682 | 6.637 | 0.508 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.007 | -0.232 | 0.075 |
| Pat Perez | $9,400 | $8,200 | $16,600 | 1.307 | 66.157 | -0.191 | 0.224 | 0.279 | -0.371 | 0.399 | 0.068 |
| Bud Cauley | $7,400 | $6,500 | $14,700 | 1.146 | 20.622 | 0 | 0 | 0.035 | 0.154 | 0.103 | 0.058 |
| Justin Thomas | $12,100 | $10,300 | $19,600 | 1.912 | 69.157 | 0.238 | 0.62 | 0.117 | -0.277 | -0.414 | 0.057 |
| Stewart Cink | $7,400 | $6,200 | $13,900 | 1.178 | 32.405 | 0.072 | 0 | 0.131 | 0.105 | -0.04 | 0.054 |
| Daniel Berger | $8,700 | $9,000 | $16,200 | 1.67 | 25.556 | -0.474 | 0.467 | -0.063 | 0.237 | 0.077 | 0.049 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | $9,000 | $8,600 | $16,200 | 1.513 | 22.405 | 0 | 0.184 | 0.226 | -0.172 | 0 | 0.047 |
| Lucas Glover | $7,800 | $6,400 | $15,000 | 0.958 | 45.212 | 0.309 | 0 | 0.261 | -0.63 | 0.284 | 0.045 |
| Kevin Tway | $7,000 | $5,300 | $12,700 | 0.393 | 19.712 | 0 | 0 | 0.067 | 0.393 | -0.279 | 0.036 |
| C.T. Pan | $7,100 | $5,100 | $13,000 | 0.744 | 20.009 | 0 | 0 | 0.122 | 0.033 | 0 | 0.031 |
| Ian Poulter | $7,500 | $6,600 | $14,900 | 1.306 | 24.26 | 0 | 0.097 | 0.104 | 0.36 | -0.418 | 0.029 |
| Charles Howell III | $7,100 | $6,200 | $12,800 | 1.281 | -9.198 | -0.059 | 0 | 0.163 | -0.008 | 0.041 | 0.027 |
| Branden Grace | $8,100 | $8,400 | $15,200 | 1.498 | 19.26 | 0 | 0.019 | -0.25 | 0.021 | 0.338 | 0.026 |
| Russell Henley | $8,800 | $6,900 | $15,600 | 1.283 | 34.056 | 0.777 | -0.334 | 0.008 | 0.223 | -0.551 | 0.024 |
| Jonas Blixt | $6,800 | $4,600 | $11,600 | 0.554 | -3.863 | -0.284 | 0.027 | 0.213 | -0.05 | 0.138 | 0.009 |
| Whee Kim | $7,200 | $5,000 | $12,800 | 0.486 | 11.534 | -0.08 | 0 | 0.099 | -0.191 | 0.189 | 0.003 |
| Jeunghun Wang | $7,000 | $5,200 | $13,500 | -0.482 | 17.84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyounghoon Lee | $7,000 | $4,700 | $11,600 | 0.364 | 0.807 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Young-han Song | $6,900 | $5,100 | $13,300 | 0.755 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.T. Kim | $7,300 | $4,800 | $12,800 | 0.207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jung Gon Hwang | $7,000 | $4,600 | $11,400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Seunghyuk Kim | $6,800 | $4,500 | $11,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Junghwan Lee | $7,100 | $4,500 | $10,700 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hyungjoon Lee | $6,800 | $4,600 | $10,900 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gyu Min Lee | $6,800 | $4,500 | $11,100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jinho Choi | $6,800 | $4,500 | $11,300 | -4.16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gavin Green | $7,200 | $4,500 | $12,600 | -1.334 | -2.899 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sung Kang | $8,200 | $6,100 | $15,600 | 1.116 | 25.622 | -0.096 | 0 | -0.088 | -0.157 | 0.34 | 0 |
| Tony Finau | $10,200 | $9,300 | $16,800 | 1.622 | 42.773 | 0.303 | 0 | 0.101 | 0.09 | -0.512 | -0.004 |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,300 | $5,300 | $13,200 | 0.872 | 24.495 | 0.129 | 0 | 0.053 | 0.129 | -0.344 | -0.007 |
| Rod Pampling | $7,200 | $4,500 | $11,000 | 0.086 | -11.991 | 0 | 0 | -0.184 | 0.143 | 0 | -0.008 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,500 | $7,200 | $14,100 | 1.109 | 14.122 | 0.247 | 0 | 0.095 | -0.089 | -0.308 | -0.011 |
| Kelly Kraft | $6,900 | $4,700 | $11,700 | 0.229 | -8.697 | -0.382 | 0 | -0.589 | 0.11 | 0.799 | -0.012 |
| Camilo Villegas | $7,100 | $5,100 | $12,800 | 0.704 | 9.034 | 0.376 | 0 | -0.214 | -0.261 | 0.022 | -0.016 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,900 | $7,300 | $15,200 | 1.246 | 46.712 | 0.057 | 0 | -0.003 | -0.018 | -0.117 | -0.016 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,500 | $5,500 | $13,200 | 0.806 | 12.157 | 0.224 | -0.368 | 0.134 | -0.154 | 0.078 | -0.017 |
| Grayson Murray | $7,800 | $6,300 | $13,500 | 0.793 | 15.712 | 0 | 0 | -0.124 | -0.029 | 0 | -0.031 |
| Seung-yul Noh | $7,100 | $6,000 | $13,200 | 0.775 | 1.396 | -0.119 | 0 | -0.041 | -0.306 | 0.301 | -0.033 |
| Jim Herman | $6,900 | $4,500 | $11,800 | 0.738 | -3.081 | -0.033 | 0 | 0.14 | -0.173 | -0.116 | -0.036 |
| Chris Stroud | $7,200 | $4,500 | $11,600 | 0.686 | -21.466 | -0.599 | 0 | -0.065 | 0.383 | 0.072 | -0.042 |
| Harold Varner III | $7,200 | $5,800 | $14,000 | 0.896 | 26.226 | -0.042 | 0 | 0.244 | -0.218 | -0.215 | -0.046 |
| Robert Streb | $6,800 | $5,400 | $12,300 | 1.14 | 3.995 | -0.189 | -0.31 | 0.012 | 0.059 | 0.111 | -0.063 |
| Chris Kirk | $7,500 | $5,500 | $13,500 | 1.189 | 17.625 | 0.161 | -0.232 | 0.093 | -0.078 | -0.27 | -0.065 |
| Chad Campbell | $7,100 | $5,600 | $12,200 | 1.006 | -5.466 | -0.259 | 0 | -0.383 | 0.444 | -0.138 | -0.067 |
| Wesley Bryan | $7,000 | $5,200 | $12,700 | 0.776 | -1.005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.386 | 0 | -0.077 |
| Graham DeLaet | $7,500 | $6,400 | $14,500 | 1.287 | 9.263 | -0.112 | 0 | -0.167 | 0.057 | -0.177 | -0.08 |
| Kevin Na | $8,000 | $6,800 | $15,500 | 1.708 | 37.212 | 0.203 | -0.297 | 0.017 | -0.228 | -0.097 | -0.08 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,600 | $7,700 | $15,600 | 1.746 | 28.995 | 0 | 0.067 | -0.154 | 0.026 | -0.371 | -0.086 |
| Danny Lee | $7,400 | $5,900 | $14,700 | 1.071 | 6.227 | -0.171 | -0.034 | 0.005 | 0.264 | -0.595 | -0.106 |
| Adam Hadwin | $7,000 | $7,400 | $14,000 | 1.155 | 22.567 | -0.37 | 0 | -0.045 | -0.008 | -0.128 | -0.11 |
| Scott Brown | $6,900 | $6,100 | $13,000 | 0.79 | 28.212 | -0.156 | 0 | -0.321 | -0.091 | 0.012 | -0.111 |
| Gary Woodland | $8,300 | $7,900 | $15,800 | 1.554 | 28.567 | -0.31 | -0.186 | 0.037 | -0.221 | 0.075 | -0.121 |
| Byeong Hun An | $8,100 | $7,500 | $15,400 | 1.191 | -7.302 | 0 | -0.728 | 0.127 | -0.043 | 0 | -0.129 |
| Cameron Smith | $8,900 | $6,200 | $15,800 | 0.866 | 18.213 | 0.265 | 0 | 0.001 | -0.422 | -0.619 | -0.155 |
| Sangmoon Bae | $6,900 | $5,700 | $12,500 | 0.822 | -5.193 | 0 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.65 | 0 | -0.156 |
| Patrick Reed | $9,500 | $9,200 | $16,700 | 1.742 | 35.056 | 0 | -0.334 | -0.106 | 0.001 | -0.358 | -0.16 |
| Jason Day | $10,600 | $10,200 | $18,100 | 2.727 | 47.056 | 0 | -0.078 | -0.273 | -0.027 | -0.454 | -0.167 |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $8,600 | $7,400 | $14,900 | 1.045 | -0.57 | -0.528 | 0 | -0.171 | -0.346 | 0.149 | -0.179 |
| Morgan Hoffmann | $7,300 | $5,300 | $12,700 | 0.667 | 11.509 | -0.735 | 0 | -0.34 | 0.095 | -0.204 | -0.237 |
| Brian Harman | $7,700 | $7,200 | $13,500 | 1.179 | 3.467 | -0.496 | -0.315 | 0.03 | 0.138 | -0.615 | -0.252 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,400 | $6,500 | $13,300 | 0.72 | -7.005 | -0.415 | -0.938 | 0.233 | 0.039 | -0.617 | -0.34 |