Searching for a Specialist: DEAN & DELUCA Invitational

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Welcome back to another specialist search.

The TOUR stays in Texas this week for another windy test of golf.

There are five angles that showed nice correlation this week, so let’s check those out.

We are going to look at performance on Bentgrass Greens, Performance in Texas, Performance in the Wind, Performance on Par 70 Courses, and finish up with Less-than-Driver Course stats.

Let’s go …

Bentgrass Greens

When bentgrass greens are on the docket, I generally think ball-striking right away.

With bentgrass featuring less grain changes than bermuda, that is one less thing for golfers to worry about, making it a bit easier in general.

The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists are:

Tim Herron (0.356 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.65 sg:total)
Kevin Tway (0.506 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.009 sg:total)
Johnson Wagner (0.995 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.5 sg:total)
Chris Stroud (1.181 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.708 sg:total)
Chad Campbell (1.393 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.937 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (1.196 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.756 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (1.1 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.713 sg:total)
Geoff Ogilvy (0.775 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.404 sg:total)
Rod Pampling (0.594 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.243 sg:total)
Michael Kim (1.07 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.732 sg:total)

Michael Kim is one of the best putters on TOUR, so to see him have such a big split on one grass type is a bit surprising. With ties to the area, as well, Kim could feel quite comfy this week and have a monster week on the greens.

Lucas Glover remains an auto-fade for me on bentgrass, as he sees more than 3/4 of a stroke decline versus his baseline when taking on bentgrass courses.

Texas Events

Texas tournament generally see firm and fast conditions and wind is usually a big deal.

Let’s see who thrives in these conditions.

The 10 Texas Specialists:

Kyle Reifers (1.872 sg:Texas vs. 0.713 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (1.491 sg:Texas vs. 0.581 sg:total)
Sung Kang (1.926 sg:Texas vs. 1.119 sg:total)
Chris Kirk (2.022 sg:Texas vs. 1.262 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (2.043 sg:Texas vs. 1.304 sg:total)
Steven Bowditch (0.187 sg:Texas vs. -0.486 sg:total)
Brian Gay (0.783 sg:Texas vs. 0.12 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (2.036 sg:Texas vs. 1.443 sg:total)
Ryan Palmer (2.172 sg:Texas vs. 1.633 sg:total)
Zac Blair (1.22 sg:Texas vs. 0.685 sg:total)

While the sample size isn’t as big as some of our normal angles, Kyle Reifers has gained more than a stroke more than his baseline when heading to Texas.

Sung Kang is another name that catches my eye. He lives in the Dallas area, so his boost in Texas makes perfect sense. Add in some stellar form, and we have a great play on our hands.

Performance in the Wind

Right now the forecast calls for windy conditions throughout the week, something like 15-to-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH.

The best way to fight the wind is pure ball-striking or elite scrambling.

The Top 10 Wind Specialists:
Kevin Tway (1.025 sg:wind vs. 0.009 sg:total)
Tim Herron (0.131 sg:wind vs. -0.65 sg:total)
Brandon Hagy (1.307 sg:wind vs. 0.618 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.738 sg:wind vs. 1.133 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (1.138 sg:wind vs. 0.581 sg:total)
Ben Martin (1.25 sg:wind vs. 0.744 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (1.252 sg:wind vs. 0.756 sg:total)
Brian Gay (0.544 sg:wind vs. 0.12 sg:total)
Cameron Tringale (1.366 sg:wind vs. 0.953 sg:total)
Kelly Kraft (0.592 sg:wind vs. 0.184 sg:total)

While ball-striking and scrambling help fight the wind, so does familiarity in the elements. Golfers that grew up playing in windy conditions will have atendency to exceed their normal performance when the wind whips up.

Kelly Kraft and Kevin Tway certainly fit that mold as they grew up in Texas and Oklahoma, respectively.

Par 70 Courses

With only two par 5s on the scorecard, goflers that can grind out tough par 4s often get a boost on par-70 layouts.

There are other ways to thrive on par 70s, so let’s just have a look to see who incresases their performance.

The Top 10 Par 70 Specialists:

Si Woo Kim (1.57 sg:par70 vs. 0.812 sg:total)
Tim Herron (0.023 sg:par70 vs. -0.65 sg:total)
Billy Horschel (1.954 sg:par70 vs. 1.343 sg:total)
David Lingmerth (1.307 sg:par70 vs. 0.766 sg:total)
Brian Gay (0.615 sg:par70 vs. 0.12 sg:total)
Chez Reavie (1.426 sg:par70 vs. 0.958 sg:total)
Tyrone Van Aswegen (0.695 sg:par70 vs. 0.228 sg:total)
Daniel Summerhays (1.487 sg:par70 vs. 1.054 sg:total)
Boo Weekley (0.786 sg:par70 vs. 0.457 sg:total)
Webb Simpson (1.695 sg:par70 vs. 1.38 sg:total)

We just saw Horschel win last week at the Byron Nelson (Par 70) which checks out given his track record of performing on layouts with just two par 5s.

On the opposite side we have golfers like Lucas Glover and Kevin Tway who rely on distance and/or ball-striking. Par 5s provide them a nice opportunity to have a tap-in birdie, but there aren’t many of those opportunities when you have to take on 12 par 4s.

Less-than-Driver Courses

Colonial Country club is a classical design that features plenty of doglegs and short par 4s.

That means golfers can and will leave driver in their bag more than usual this week.

The Top 10 Less-than-Driver Specialists:

Wesley Bryan (2.285 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.142 sg:total)
Sam Saunders (0.97 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.176 sg:total)
Matt Every (0.057 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.51 sg:total)
Morgan Hoffmann (1.039 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.545 sg:total)
Bill Haas (2.131 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.647 sg:total)
Blayne Barber (1.115 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.643 sg:total)
Ben Martin (1.199 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.744 sg:total)
Anirban Lahiri (1.178 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.725 sg:total)
Whee Kim (0.839 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.404 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.212 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.781 sg:total)

It’s still early in his career but Wes Bryan is proving to be a stud when he can holster his driver.

As you might expect, a bomber like Tony finau is near the bottom of this list. That doesn’t mean we need to ignore him entirely this week, but his main weapon is muted just a bit this week.

Baseline Performance

The goal of this search is to find some golfers with a good course fit. At the same time, we don’t want to rely on golfers that need the week of their lives just to crack the top 25.

The following golfers are struggling with their current form (below the field average), making them GPP-only options despite their good course fit.

GPP-Only Options:

Chris Kirk
Scott Piercy

Both of these golfers found a spark in their most recent start, but looked lost before that. They both grade out a good course fits this week, but they still bring a lot of risk with sketchy form.

The Specialists

Chad Campbell
Danny Lee

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Our specialist this week is Chad Campbell!

Campbell is a Texas native so it makes sense that he’d up his game in windy Texas conditions. He is also on the record saying he loves this week’s course and plays it a fair amount throughout the year on his off-weeks.

Danny Lee is another Texas resident, living in the Dallas area. He also looks to have a favorable starting tee time (Thursday AM) as opposed to Campbell’s PM start.

The wind forecast could change before thursday, but luckily we have a specialist on each side of the draw.

The Anti-Specialists

The specialists above are positive in all five angles, but which golfers are the opposite and show a poor course fit?

Kevin Streelman
Jonas Blixt
Martin Flores

No big names this week. As anti-specialists, I will avoid them with ease.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),

Form looks at the performance over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro).

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG:Total Form Bentgrass Texas Par 70 WIND LT Driver Specialist Rating
Tim Herron $6,600 NA $10,700 -0.65 0.51 1.005 0 0.673 0.78 -0.115 0.469
Chris Kirk $8,200 NA $15,500 1.262 0.337 0.017 0.76 0.312 0.312 0.256 0.331
Sung Kang $7,400 NA $15,000 1.119 2.655 0.156 0.807 -0.03 0.265 0.069 0.253
Nick Taylor $7,300 NA $14,200 0.581 2.01 0.085 0.91 -0.302 0.557 -0.073 0.235
Wesley Bryan $7,000 NA $14,500 1.142 0.706 0 0 0 0 1.143 0.229
Chad Campbell $7,200 NA $13,500 0.937 1.208 0.456 0.316 0.085 0.155 0.105 0.223
Ben Martin $7,200 NA $14,100 0.744 1.317 -0.099 0 0.176 0.506 0.455 0.208
Cameron Tringale $6,400 NA $13,300 0.953 0.895 0.272 0.121 -0.129 0.413 0.331 0.202
Brian Gay $6,500 NA $12,800 0.12 1.799 -0.214 0.663 0.495 0.424 -0.476 0.179
Billy Horschel $7,900 NA $16,000 1.343 1.2 0.079 0 0.61 0.302 -0.118 0.175
Chris Stroud $6,900 NA $12,000 0.708 0.891 0.473 0.357 0.012 -0.052 0.081 0.174
Kyle Reifers $7,300 NA $13,800 0.713 1.017 0.386 1.158 -0.491 0.166 -0.355 0.173
Kevin Tway $7,100 NA $15,100 0.009 2.613 0.497 0 -0.668 1.016 0 0.169
Kyle Stanley $7,400 NA $15,200 0.583 2.586 0.148 0.2 -0.028 0.228 0.284 0.166
Danny Lee $6,900 NA $14,800 0.969 1.153 0.196 0.285 0.086 0.045 0.218 0.166
Jason Dufner $9,000 NA $16,700 1.443 2.073 -0.201 0.593 0.123 -0.103 0.418 0.166
Sean O’Hair $7,500 NA $13,700 0.774 0.339 -0.075 0.468 0.102 0.14 0.186 0.164
Charley Hoffman $7,300 NA $15,200 1.304 1.956 -0.058 0.738 -0.131 0.093 0.166 0.162
Scott Piercy $7,000 NA $12,600 1.029 -1.009 0.129 0.015 0.228 0.305 0.096 0.155
Billy Hurley III $6,600 NA $12,800 0.756 1.6 0.441 0.128 0.173 0.496 -0.473 0.153
Brandon Hagy $6,400 NA $12,200 0.618 0.985 0 0 0 0.689 0 0.138
David Hearn $6,600 NA $12,700 0.897 0.423 0.297 0.04 0.07 -0.143 0.421 0.137
Morgan Hoffmann $7,200 NA $12,700 0.545 0.706 0.074 0 0.209 -0.109 0.494 0.133
Graeme Mcdowell $7,400 NA $14,900 1.316 1.497 -0.003 0 0.091 0.265 0.274 0.126
John Huh $7,100 NA $13,300 0.675 1.172 0.02 0.239 -0.197 0.403 0.148 0.122
Graham DeLaet $7,800 NA $14,200 1.198 0.56 0.074 -0.02 -0.059 0.22 0.391 0.121
Bill Haas $6,900 NA $14,500 1.647 -0.062 0.021 0 -0.186 0.284 0.484 0.121
Steven Bowditch $6,300 NA $10,700 -0.486 -2.586 0.319 0.673 0.297 -0.382 -0.335 0.114
Scott Brown $6,600 NA $12,800 0.687 0.445 -0.064 -0.089 0.222 0.134 0.329 0.106
Daniel Summerhays $7,100 NA $12,700 1.054 0.695 -0.171 0.411 0.433 -0.123 -0.022 0.106
Ryan Palmer $7,900 NA $16,200 1.633 2.025 0.035 0.539 0.114 -0.192 0.017 0.102
Boo Weekley $6,400 NA $12,700 0.457 0.789 -0.203 0.177 0.329 0.366 -0.21 0.092
Sergio Garcia $10,800 NA $18,000 2.448 3.214 0.027 0 0.25 0.218 -0.04 0.091
Sam Saunders $6,300 NA $11,400 0.176 1.402 -0.224 0 -0.18 0.038 0.794 0.086
David Lingmerth $7,400 NA $13,600 0.766 0.143 0.109 0 0.541 0.023 -0.253 0.084
Ricky Barnes $6,600 NA $11,700 0.408 0.106 0.165 -0.216 -0.097 0.351 0.216 0.084
Zac Blair $6,700 NA $12,400 0.685 1.128 -0.166 0.536 0.141 -0.046 -0.046 0.084
Anirban Lahiri $6,600 NA $13,200 0.725 0.182 0.12 0 -0.085 -0.087 0.453 0.08
Greg Chalmers $6,300 NA $10,900 -0.099 0.141 -0.007 -0.133 0.145 0.145 0.244 0.079
Si Woo Kim $8,000 NA $15,000 0.812 1.672 -0.017 0 0.757 0.15 -0.516 0.075
Tyrone Van Aswegen $6,800 NA $11,400 0.228 -0.013 0.32 -0.217 0.468 0.018 -0.216 0.075
Bud Cauley $9,500 NA $16,400 1.021 2.069 0.185 0 -0.043 0.286 -0.076 0.07
Davis Love III $ – NA $11,000 0.085 -0.022 0.04 0 0.12 -0.198 0.362 0.065
Matt Kuchar $10,100 NA $16,700 2.051 1.757 0.117 -0.017 0.181 0.065 -0.032 0.063
Bryson DeChambeau $6,600 NA $12,200 0.666 0.547 0.074 0 0.115 0.149 -0.024 0.063
J.J. Spaun $7,000 NA $12,500 0.917 1.012 0 0 0 0 0.307 0.061
Kelly Kraft $6,700 NA NA 0.184 -1.901 0 0 0 0.407 -0.114 0.059
Blayne Barber $6,900 NA $12,700 0.643 1.306 -0.456 0 0.013 0.246 0.473 0.055
Kevin Kisner $9,700 NA $16,200 1.296 1.947 -0.12 0.048 0.213 -0.259 0.39 0.054
Cameron Smith $7,700 NA $14,700 0.846 1.719 -0.279 0 0.084 0.053 0.407 0.053
Jhonattan Vegas $7,100 NA $13,500 0.781 1.411 -0.01 -0.39 0.054 0.162 0.431 0.049
J.J. Henry $6,400 NA $11,900 0.106 1.196 0.207 0.099 0.253 -0.181 -0.133 0.049
Michael Thompson $6,500 NA $12,000 0.428 0.811 -0.229 0.456 -0.04 0.245 -0.258 0.035
Whee Kim $6,700 NA $11,300 0.404 0.526 -0.067 0.138 -0.725 0.377 0.436 0.032
Ollie Schniederjans $7,700 NA $14,600 1.093 1.902 0 0 0 0 0.158 0.032
Jon Rahm $11,800 NA $18,400 2.282 2.333 0.063 0 0 0.069 0 0.027
Cameron Percy $6,400 NA $11,400 0.501 0.59 0.046 0 0.186 -0.084 -0.015 0.027
Tony Finau $8,700 NA $16,200 1.451 2.376 0.149 0.402 0.093 0.066 -0.597 0.023
Nick Watney $7,000 NA $12,800 0.952 0.145 0.053 0 0.258 -0.182 -0.036 0.019
Johnson Wagner $6,300 NA NA 0.5 0.094 0.494 -0.144 -0.414 0.021 0.126 0.017
Stewart Cink $6,700 NA $13,100 1.054 1.601 0.137 0 -0.027 0.163 -0.192 0.016
James Hahn $7,400 NA $14,500 0.744 1.138 -0.012 0.413 0.184 -0.167 -0.337 0.016
Ryan Moore $7,200 NA $15,000 1.577 1.82 -0.111 0 -0.188 0.139 0.223 0.013
Luke List $6,700 NA $13,100 1.322 1.718 0.051 0 0 -0.161 0.168 0.012
Jordan Spieth $12,000 NA $18,300 2.551 1.219 0.046 -0.032 -0.248 0.283 0 0.01
Paul Casey $10,200 NA $16,700 1.971 2.632 0.137 0 0.063 -0.056 -0.133 0.002
Camilo Villegas $6,500 NA $12,200 0.64 0.571 -0.232 0 0.242 0.033 -0.038 0.001
J.T. Poston $7,200 NA $12,600 0.976 1.169 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mackenzie Hughes $6,700 NA $12,700 0.834 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cody Gribble $7,000 NA $11,700 0.712 0.103 0 0 0 0 0 0
C.T. Pan $6,800 NA $11,600 0.461 -0.056 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beau Hossler $6,500 NA $11,500 0.427 0.067 0 0 0 0 0 0
Xander Schauffele $6,500 NA NA 0.32 1.197 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dominic Bozzelli $6,300 NA $11,700 0.256 -0.366 0 0 0 0 0 0
Yuta Ikeda $6,500 NA $12,100 0.213 1.137 0 0 0 0 0 0
Curtis Luck $6,900 NA $11,900 0.182 0.186 0 0 0 0 0 0
Martin Piller $6,400 NA $11,700 0.007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamie Sadlowski $6,400 NA $10,600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jazz Janewattananond $6,400 NA $11,100 0 1.004 0 0 0 0 0 0
Keith Clearwater $6,300 NA $10,600 -6.475 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Patton Kizzire $6,300 NA $12,200 0.642 -0.066 -0.232 0 -0.362 0.219 0.326 -0.01
Rod Pampling $6,500 NA $12,100 0.243 0.951 0.351 0 -0.028 -0.137 -0.237 -0.01
Marc Leishman $9,300 NA $16,000 1.529 2.024 0.047 0 -0.008 -0.107 0.013 -0.011
Ryan Blaum $6,300 NA $11,400 0.824 0.463 0 0 0 0 -0.079 -0.016
Webb Simpson $9,100 NA $15,900 1.38 1.185 0.1 0 0.316 -0.034 -0.493 -0.022
Harris English $7,300 NA $13,200 1.223 -1.837 -0.099 0.04 0.222 0.109 -0.39 -0.023
William McGirt $7,100 NA $15,000 1.128 1.933 0.056 0.031 -0.068 -0.252 0.105 -0.026
Matt Jones $6,800 NA $12,500 0.951 0.972 -0.05 0.223 -0.389 0.085 0.003 -0.026
Emiliano Grillo $7,800 NA $15,700 1.553 2.007 0.308 0 -0.224 -0.08 -0.154 -0.03
Steve Stricker $7,300 NA $13,900 1.58 2.329 0.087 0 -0.34 0.043 0.053 -0.031
Michael Kim $6,600 NA $12,600 0.732 1.242 0.338 0 -0.235 -0.352 0.082 -0.034
Brian Stuard $6,700 NA $11,900 0.573 0.172 -0.034 0 -0.224 -0.079 0.16 -0.035
Pat Perez $7,600 NA $15,800 1.133 2.209 -0.361 0 -0.181 0.605 -0.25 -0.037
Bryce Molder $6,400 NA $11,800 0.676 0.471 -0.349 0.154 0.01 -0.186 0.18 -0.038
Brandt Snedeker $8,100 NA $15,600 1.609 1.758 0.079 -0.043 0.245 -0.058 -0.416 -0.038
Vaughn Taylor $6,700 NA $12,300 0.9 1.366 0 0 0.072 -0.26 -0.076 -0.053
Rory Sabbatini $6,600 NA $11,300 0.451 -1.305 -0.357 0 0.297 -0.014 -0.2 -0.055
Brian Harman $8,500 NA $15,200 1.077 2.247 0.172 -0.092 0.114 -0.263 -0.216 -0.057
Scott Stallings $6,500 NA $11,800 0.273 -0.248 -0.195 0.064 0.119 0.126 -0.433 -0.064
Jason Bohn $6,800 NA $11,600 0.727 0.109 0.131 0 0.005 -0.209 -0.319 -0.078
Aaron Baddeley $6,500 NA $12,600 0.742 2.042 -0.112 0.213 -0.216 -0.255 -0.132 -0.101
Angel Cabrera $6,400 NA $11,100 0.229 -0.254 0.276 -0.525 0.143 -0.149 -0.285 -0.108
Phil Mickelson $8,800 NA $16,100 1.959 1.807 -0.008 0 -0.359 0.297 -0.49 -0.112
Chez Reavie $6,400 NA $12,700 0.958 0.455 0.088 0 0.469 -0.26 -0.87 -0.114
Matt Every $6,300 NA $10,800 -0.51 -0.79 -0.524 0 0.013 -0.641 0.568 -0.117
Seung-Yul Noh $6,600 NA $13,300 0.727 0.688 -0.283 -0.556 0.278 -0.049 -0.019 -0.126
Robert Streb $6,500 NA $12,200 1.107 0.588 0.099 -0.685 0.078 0.24 -0.364 -0.126
Fabian Gomez $6,700 NA $11,400 0.443 0.512 -0.421 0 0.035 -0.385 0.077 -0.139
Derek Fathauer $6,600 NA $11,100 0.377 -0.377 -0.129 0 -0.159 -0.291 -0.137 -0.143
Harold Varner III $6,500 NA $12,700 0.774 1.39 -0.214 0 0 -0.71 0.184 -0.148
Zach Johnson $9,800 NA $16,200 1.643 0.981 0.118 -0.106 -0.14 -0.436 -0.182 -0.149
Jason Kokrak $7,600 NA $14,000 1.11 0.773 -0.26 -0.33 -0.06 -0.137 0.034 -0.151
Patrick Rodgers $6,500 NA $12,700 0.674 -0.563 -0.006 0 0.051 -0.454 -0.392 -0.16
Geoff Ogilvy $6,300 NA $12,000 0.404 0.134 0.372 -0.219 -0.458 0.016 -0.577 -0.173
Martin Laird $6,600 NA $13,500 1.007 1.194 -0.248 -0.151 -0.252 0.198 -0.582 -0.207
Adam Hadwin $8,400 NA $15,800 1.195 1.774 0.027 -0.551 -0.466 -0.152 0.063 -0.216
Hunter Mahan $6,800 NA $11,100 0.63 -0.219 0.302 -0.184 -0.774 0.076 -0.533 -0.223
Lucas Glover $7,500 NA $14,400 0.806 2.191 -0.793 0 -0.67 0.163 0.165 -0.227
Martin Flores $6,300 NA $11,300 0.619 -0.179 -0.425 -0.133 -0.475 -0.107 -0.096 -0.247

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.