Searching for a Specialist: Deutsche Bank
Welcome back to another week of specialist searching.
Last week we rebounded from a recent slump to nearly hit on Fowler and Spieth was right in the mix if only his putter would have lived up to its potential. More importantly the anti-specialists section helped us avoid landmines like Matsuyama, Molinari, Haas, and a few others.
Stenson was the big turd in the punch bowl as he was a specialist and withdrew after round one.
This week we will look at Bentgrass Greens, Driver-Heavy Courses, and finish up with Strong Field Events.
Here we go…
Bentgrass Greens
Looking at correlations week-to-week, putting surfaces are always near the top so this is a key each and every week. TPC Boston is no different.
This week features bentgrass greens, so that means the bermuda specialists get a little downgrade, and we can focus on some of the elite ball-strikers instead since they can manage their way around simpler bentgrass surfaces.
The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists are:
Johnson Wagner (0.529 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.05 sg:total)
Chad Campbell (0.847 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.391 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (1.489 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.135 sg:total)
Tyrone Van Aswegen (0.154 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.17 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (1.093 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.774 sg:total)
Russell Henley (0.542 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.24 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (0.406 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.129 sg:total)
Tony Finau (0.958 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.697 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (0.567 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.308 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (0.374 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.175 sg:total)
Four of these names found top 25s last week on Bethpage Black’s bentgrass greens, and I’d expect a similar number this week.
Fowler is the most interesting name because he’s often overvalued due to his name recognition but bentgrass courses have proven to be the courses that he shows up near the top most consistently.
Finau is right there with Fowler as Bentgrass Bash Bros! in 24 starts on bentgrass, he’s found the top 25 in 14 of them. That 58% rate is 11th-best in the field but his salary is closer to 11th-lowest.
Hadwin is a third name that finds top 25s on bentgrass at a much higher clip. His baseline top 25 rate is 23% but that bumps all the way up to 43% when he’s on bentgrass greens. Heyyyo.
How about the opposite side of the spectrum? Vaughn Taylor, Roberto Castro, and Fabian Gomez all have top 25s in less-than 5% of their bentgrass starts since 2014. Yikes.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 35
Driver-Heavy Course
TPC Boston is not the longest course but it’s considered somewhat of a big-hitters playground thanks to the generous fairways and non-penal rough.
Because of this ease off the tee, golfers can rip drivers without the fear of getting into trouble (unlike last week at Bethpage).
Very accurate drivers will find themselves in the fairway that much more often while some of the bombers can find a few more fairways than usual and also survive the misses without too much trouble.
The Top 10 Driver-Heavy Specialists remaining:
Hudson Swafford (0.867 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.156 sg:total)
Brandt Snedeker (1.409 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.809 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (1.697 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.135 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (0.675 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.129 sg:total)
Tyrone Van Aswegen (0.326 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.17 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (2.358 sg:driver-heavy vs. 2.081 sg:total)
Ricky Barnes (0.338 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.073 sg:total)
Russell Henley (0.499 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.24 sg:total)
Vijay Singh (0.366 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.11 sg:total)
Jerry Kelly (0.712 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.501 sg:total)
This list features four wins at TPC Boston (Fowler, Rory, Vijay x2).
It’s no secret that when you let Rory unleash with the driver he is a lethal force. It all comes down to how the flat stick cooperates this week.
Of the remaining specialist options, Kyle Reifers and Jon Curran may be the worst in this regard. They have a combined three top 25s in 35 starts on driver-heavy layouts. Curran has the Boston connection in his favor, but the course does not set up well for him.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 17
Strong Field Events
The final door that potential specialists need to walk through is performance in strong field tournaments.
I classify this as all events with an OWGR strength of field rating of 400 or higher. This helps us eliminate the golfers that just beat up on the lesser talents on TOUR.
We lose the following golfers because their Strong Field performance is lower than their baseline:
Chez Reavie
Rory Mcilroy
Tony Finau
Vijay Singh
Russell Henley
Brandt Snedeker
Scott Piercy
Hudson Swafford
Billy Hurley III
Danny Lee
Johnson Wagner
Jerry Kelly
Ricky Barnes
Chad Campbell
It’s really hard to pass this stage. To perform BETTER when the fields get tougher is a really hard thing to do, consistently. I could ease up on the criteria but instead I want to keep it how it always is so we can find a true specialist.
Chez Reavie is worth mentioning because he doesn’t have enough strong field rounds since 2014 to qualify here, but otherwise would be a specialist this week. I do think he makes for a solid sleeper in the sub-$6500 range.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 3
Baseline Performance
If we look at our filter for baseline strokes gained, we see that one golfer doesn’t fit the criteria.
Tyrone Van Aswegen
Using stats since 2014 we see that Van Aswegen loses strokes to the field, and that’s even more true this week when you consider the field average baseline strokes gained is 0.60 strokes per round. TVA might have a nice course fit this week, but he’s starting at a big disadvantage. He could be used as a nice salary-saver if all you need is a cut made.
The Specialists
Rickie Fowler
David Lingmerth
Our specialist this week is Rickie Fowler!
It’s a small batch this week which can be really good when it comes to beer or whiskey, so why not specialists, as well?
Fowler is playing the role of defending champion this week so we know what he can do here at TPC Boston. Some weeks I may be concerned with media duties of a defending champ, but Fowler does heavy media every week and he’ll give his full attention to the course as he still needs to prove his worth to David Love III if he wants to snag a Ryder Cup captain’s pick and feel good about it.
While Fowler has a win here, Lingmerth has nothing close to that. He is 0-for-2 at TPC Boston but the stats suggest that may change this week. He’s a beast (relatively) when it comes to performing in the majors so it’s just a matter of time before that translates to the FedExCup Playoffs. I think the Swede is a fantastic GPP option this week who should fly in way under the radar.
The Anti-Specialists
The golfers below are negative in all angles this week. Basically the exact opposite of our specialists and we should try to avoid them this week or limit our exposure at the very least.
This week the anti-specialists are:
Bryce Molder
Jason Dufner
Jason Kokrak
Scott Brown
Charles Howell III
Ryan Moore
Kevin Na
Luke Donald
Aaron Baddeley
Charley Hoffman
Spencer Levin
Bill Haas
Hideki Matsuyama
K.J. Choi
Ben Martin
Brendan Steele
Russell Knox
Phil Mickelson
Matt Kuchar
Sergio Garcia
Ryan Palmer
Paul Casey
James Hahn
Dustin Johnson
Much like Bethpage Black, we have a giant list here with plenty of big names.
At this stage in the season, with smaller fields, we are looking for any imperfections on a golfers resume so we can narrow our list of targets. This list of anti-specialists does just that. If it scary to fade guys like DJ, Matsuyama, Sergio, Hoffman, Kuchar, etc.? Absolutely, but we saw last week that we can also avoid some of the big landmines by using this list.
This list doesn’t demand a full fade treatment but if you are on the fence on a particular golfer and he also shows up here, then fade. If you are ALL IN on a golfer and he shows up on this list? Maybe reduce your exposure a bit.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2013-14),
Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks (including European Tour) and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained with positive numbers being a good thing.
| Golfer | DK | SG:Total | Form | Bentgrass | Strong Field | Driver Course | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickie Fowler | $10,000 | 1.135 | 0.576 | 0.354 | 0.234 | 0.562 | 0.383 |
| Tyrone Van Aswegen | $5,500 | -0.17 | 0.263 | 0.323 | 0.136 | 0.496 | 0.318 |
| Hudson Swafford | $5,500 | 0.156 | 0.803 | 0.146 | -0.368 | 0.711 | 0.163 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,700 | 0.809 | 0.868 | 0.117 | -0.265 | 0.601 | 0.151 |
| Smylie Kaufman | $6,200 | 0.253 | -0.459 | -0.186 | -0.168 | 0.784 | 0.143 |
| Billy Hurley III | $5,900 | 0.129 | 0.494 | 0.277 | -0.403 | 0.546 | 0.14 |
| Russell Henley | $6,900 | 0.24 | 0.312 | 0.302 | -0.16 | 0.26 | 0.134 |
| Rory Mcilroy | $11,100 | 2.081 | 1.155 | 0.185 | -0.068 | 0.277 | 0.131 |
| Chez Reavie | $6,400 | 0.265 | 0.532 | 0.172 | 0 | 0.195 | 0.123 |
| David Lingmerth | $6,300 | 0.148 | 0.815 | 0.069 | 0.259 | 0.024 | 0.117 |
| Tony Finau | $6,500 | 0.697 | 0.347 | 0.261 | -0.1 | 0.104 | 0.088 |
| Vijay Singh | $5,600 | 0.11 | 0.419 | 0.099 | -0.141 | 0.257 | 0.072 |
| Derek Fathauer | $6,200 | -0.082 | 0.608 | -0.192 | 0.521 | -0.171 | 0.053 |
| Adam Hadwin | $5,500 | 0.308 | 0.37 | 0.259 | -0.015 | -0.095 | 0.049 |
| Kevin Chappell | $7,100 | 0.647 | 0.283 | -0.013 | 0.272 | -0.113 | 0.049 |
| Billy Horschel | $8,500 | 0.639 | 0.341 | -0.153 | -0.151 | 0.448 | 0.048 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $9,000 | 0.774 | 1.162 | 0.319 | -0.022 | -0.159 | 0.046 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,400 | 0.074 | 0.781 | -0.029 | -0.09 | 0.229 | 0.037 |
| Bubba Watson | $8,900 | 1.458 | 0.754 | -0.095 | -0.122 | 0.322 | 0.035 |
| Johnson Wagner | $7,500 | 0.05 | 0.583 | 0.479 | -0.503 | 0.112 | 0.029 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $9,100 | 0.695 | 0.584 | -0.084 | 0.166 | -0.05 | 0.011 |
| Branden Grace | $8,200 | 0.632 | 0.839 | -0.286 | -0.095 | 0.352 | -0.01 |
| Daniel Berger | $8,100 | 0.73 | 0.31 | -0.118 | -0.061 | 0.138 | -0.014 |
| Harold Varner III | $5,800 | 0.099 | -0.295 | 0 | -0.24 | 0.184 | -0.019 |
| John Senden | $7,200 | 0.504 | 0.639 | 0.096 | 0.149 | -0.304 | -0.02 |
| Scott Piercy | $6,200 | 0.295 | 0.693 | 0.132 | -0.288 | 0.086 | -0.023 |
| David Hearn | $6,000 | 0.331 | 0.136 | 0.162 | -0.024 | -0.208 | -0.023 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,300 | 0.583 | 1.312 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.214 | -0.028 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $8,300 | 0.9 | 1.089 | -0.033 | -0.089 | 0.014 | -0.036 |
| Sean O’Hair | $7,800 | 0.173 | 0.722 | -0.185 | 0.064 | 0.007 | -0.038 |
| Sung Kang | $5,500 | 0.221 | 0.382 | -0.115 | 0 | 0 | -0.038 |
| Adam Scott | $10,400 | 1.471 | 1.242 | -0.208 | 0.127 | -0.047 | -0.043 |
| Dustin Johnson | $12,100 | 1.795 | 1.834 | -0.053 | -0.046 | -0.107 | -0.068 |
| John Huh | $5,700 | -0.015 | 0.032 | -0.01 | -0.329 | 0.126 | -0.071 |
| Jerry Kelly | $7,100 | 0.501 | 0.766 | 0.059 | -0.514 | 0.211 | -0.081 |
| Brooks Koepka | $8,700 | 1.171 | 1.393 | -0.187 | -0.281 | 0.213 | -0.085 |
| Justin Thomas | $7,600 | 0.745 | 0.668 | -0.102 | -0.168 | 0.009 | -0.087 |
| Jason Day | $12,500 | 2.012 | 2.022 | -0.04 | 0.028 | -0.268 | -0.093 |
| Steve Stricker | $7,000 | 0.835 | 1.069 | 0.036 | 0.15 | -0.467 | -0.094 |
| Justin Rose | $9,700 | 1.586 | 0.959 | 0.085 | -0.155 | -0.215 | -0.095 |
| J.B. Holmes | $6,500 | 0.688 | 0.34 | 0.021 | -0.121 | -0.188 | -0.096 |
| Henrik Stenson | $10,700 | 1.641 | 2.736 | 0.14 | -0.027 | -0.412 | -0.1 |
| Jim Furyk | $8,800 | 1.499 | 0.833 | 0.001 | -0.17 | -0.138 | -0.102 |
| Danny Lee | $5,900 | 0.393 | -0.578 | 0.01 | -0.405 | 0.088 | -0.102 |
| Jim Herman | $6,000 | -0.003 | -0.323 | -0.085 | -0.311 | 0.082 | -0.105 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,700 | 0.753 | 1.038 | -0.164 | -0.217 | 0.056 | -0.108 |
| James Hahn | $5,500 | -0.055 | -0.362 | -0.23 | -0.092 | -0.004 | -0.108 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $6,100 | 0.38 | 0.023 | -0.42 | 0 | 0.091 | -0.11 |
| Paul Casey | $7,900 | 0.989 | 0.619 | -0.075 | -0.161 | -0.098 | -0.111 |
| Colt Knost | $5,600 | 0.346 | -1.017 | -0.291 | -0.331 | 0.285 | -0.112 |
| Ryan Palmer | $6,700 | 0.926 | 0.783 | -0.106 | -0.099 | -0.134 | -0.113 |
| Chad Campbell | $5,700 | 0.391 | 0.321 | 0.456 | -0.947 | 0.149 | -0.114 |
| Ricky Barnes | $5,800 | 0.073 | 1.077 | 0.018 | -0.629 | 0.265 | -0.115 |
| Daniel Summerhays | $6,000 | 0.601 | 0.812 | -0.258 | 0.064 | -0.187 | -0.127 |
| Sergio Garcia | $9,500 | 1.646 | 1.552 | -0.08 | -0.036 | -0.269 | -0.128 |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,000 | 1.03 | 0.527 | -0.131 | -0.518 | 0.251 | -0.132 |
| Chris Kirk | $6,400 | 0.567 | 0.342 | -0.074 | -0.428 | 0.103 | -0.133 |
| Alex Cejka | $6,000 | 0.287 | 0.737 | -0.074 | -0.681 | 0.35 | -0.135 |
| Matt Kuchar | $8,400 | 1.354 | 0.989 | -0.034 | -0.229 | -0.143 | -0.135 |
| Harris English | $6,600 | 0.753 | 0.37 | -0.381 | -0.327 | 0.3 | -0.136 |
| Zach Johnson | $8,000 | 0.943 | 1.211 | 0.07 | -0.11 | -0.369 | -0.136 |
| William McGirt | $6,800 | 0.494 | 0.649 | 0.034 | -0.391 | -0.069 | -0.142 |
| Kevin Streelman | $5,900 | 0.161 | 0.57 | -0.184 | -0.477 | 0.205 | -0.152 |
| Phil Mickelson | $9,300 | 1.226 | 1.631 | -0.102 | -0.255 | -0.104 | -0.154 |
| Marc Leishman | $5,800 | 0.697 | -0.076 | 0.12 | -0.102 | -0.479 | -0.154 |
| Russell Knox | $7,500 | 0.822 | 0.626 | -0.15 | -0.057 | -0.263 | -0.157 |
| Kyle Reifers | $6,800 | 0.175 | -0.15 | 0.199 | -0.063 | -0.61 | -0.158 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,400 | 0.582 | 0.579 | 0.019 | -0.322 | -0.171 | -0.158 |
| Brendan Steele | $6,600 | 0.746 | 0.622 | -0.383 | -0.111 | -0.017 | -0.17 |
| Jon Curran | $5,500 | 0.153 | -0.024 | 0.028 | -0.04 | -0.502 | -0.171 |
| Patrick Reed | $10,200 | 0.868 | 0.902 | 0.064 | -0.218 | -0.371 | -0.175 |
| Webb Simpson | $6,100 | 0.726 | 0.664 | -0.005 | -0.726 | 0.19 | -0.18 |
| Patton Kizzire | $5,900 | 0.274 | -0.492 | -0.267 | -0.513 | 0.233 | -0.182 |
| Brian Stuard | $5,600 | 0.072 | 0.067 | -0.249 | -0.453 | 0.117 | -0.195 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $6,000 | 0.281 | 0.587 | -0.063 | -0.862 | 0.324 | -0.2 |
| Brian Harman | $5,600 | 0.369 | 0.773 | 0.025 | -0.36 | -0.283 | -0.206 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,200 | 0.242 | -0.685 | -0.289 | -0.34 | 0.009 | -0.207 |
| Ben Martin | $5,600 | 0.251 | 0.439 | -0.127 | -0.401 | -0.147 | -0.225 |
| Martin Laird | $6,400 | 0.233 | 0.724 | -0.188 | -0.737 | 0.247 | -0.226 |
| K.J. Choi | $5,800 | 0.253 | 0.134 | -0.564 | -0.005 | -0.136 | -0.235 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $8,600 | 1.25 | 0.237 | -0.248 | -0.242 | -0.229 | -0.24 |
| Bill Haas | $6,700 | 0.856 | 0.758 | -0.038 | -0.265 | -0.439 | -0.247 |
| Spencer Levin | $5,900 | 0.118 | -0.129 | -0.128 | -0.666 | -0.008 | -0.267 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,600 | 1.744 | 1.353 | 0.084 | -0.362 | -0.553 | -0.277 |
| Charley Hoffman | $7,300 | 0.68 | 0.104 | -0.098 | -0.539 | -0.249 | -0.295 |
| Roberto Castro | $6,900 | -0.022 | 0.27 | -0.489 | -0.698 | 0.28 | -0.302 |
| Aaron Baddeley | $6,300 | 0.268 | 0.834 | -0.2 | -0.368 | -0.381 | -0.317 |
| Luke Donald | $6,100 | 0.456 | 0.437 | -0.415 | -0.361 | -0.214 | -0.33 |
| Kevin Na | $7,600 | 1.026 | 1.299 | -0.33 | -0.347 | -0.313 | -0.33 |
| Jason Bohn | $5,700 | 0.415 | -0.832 | -0.196 | -1.088 | 0.258 | -0.342 |
| Ryan Moore | $7,900 | 0.796 | 1.059 | -0.144 | -0.607 | -0.28 | -0.343 |
| Charles Howell III | $5,700 | 0.686 | -1.597 | -0.15 | -0.862 | -0.091 | -0.368 |
| Scott Brown | $6,100 | 0.207 | 0.063 | -0.183 | -0.432 | -0.495 | -0.37 |
| Jason Kokrak | $5,700 | 0.56 | 0.812 | -0.706 | -0.301 | -0.194 | -0.4 |
| Graeme Mcdowell | $6,300 | 0.645 | 0.03 | -0.084 | 0.011 | -1.192 | -0.422 |
| Freddie Jacobson | $6,200 | 0.398 | -0.219 | -0.654 | -0.764 | 0.097 | -0.44 |
| Jason Dufner | $7,800 | 0.591 | 0.682 | -0.255 | -0.297 | -0.789 | -0.447 |
| Fabian Gomez | $5,600 | -0.187 | -0.432 | -0.917 | -1.076 | 0.26 | -0.578 |
| Bryce Molder | $5,800 | 0.224 | -0.878 | -0.531 | -0.38 | -1.295 | -0.736 |