Searching for a Specialist: Deutsche Bank Championship
Welcome back to the specialist search. This week we will break down the field at TPC Boston and find which golfers should exceed expectations based on course and tournament factors.
The main ingredients for this week’s specialists will be strong field performance, easy course performance, bentgrass greens output, and also how golfers do when the fairways are easy to hit.
I will also include strokes gained on par 71 courses in the table at the bottom, but unlike par 70 and par 72 courses, there is a little too much noise in the data for my liking. You can certainly use this as a tiebreaker if needed. Here we go.
Bentgrass Greens
To kick things off this week, lets have a look at bentgrass performance.
To do that, we look at historical performance of golfers when playing on courses that feature bentgrass on the putting surfaces. It’s not always the case, but these types of greens often neutralize the playing field when it comes to putting.
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Looking at bentgrass performance (sg:bentgrass) and comparing it to each golfer’s expected strokes gained, these are the 10 golfers have the largest differential. After that, we also include the remaining list of bentgrass specialists:
Scott Pinckney ( 0.599 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.176 sg:total )
Tony Finau ( 1.685 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.917 sg:total )
Rickie Fowler ( 1.695 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.991 sg:total )
David Lingmerth ( 0.693 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.058 sg:total )
Colt Knost ( 0.702 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.21 sg:total )
Ian Poulter ( 1.186 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.761 sg:total )
Justin Rose ( 2.058 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.639 sg:total )
Chad Campbell ( 0.797 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.383 sg:total )
Marc Leishman ( 1.163 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.765 sg:total )
Johnson Wagner ( 0.264 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.128 sg:total )
Everyone else that performs better on bentgrass greens: Steven Bowditch, Kevin Chappell, Danny Lee, Scott Piercy, Brandt Snedeker, Chris Kirk, Will Wilcox, Jim Furyk, Jerry Kelly, Carl Pettersson, Rory Mcilroy, Russell Henley, Hudson Swafford, Hunter Mahan, Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, Jordan Spieth, Troy Merritt, Billy Horschel, Davis Love III, Nick Watney, Justin Thomas, Charles Howell III, Bryce Molder, Scott Brown.
Just like that, we’ve cut our list of potential specialists down to 36 golfers.
You’ll notice plenty of firepower that we just shed. Those golfers include Bubba Watson, Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, and even Henrik Stenson.
All of these golfers are so close to specialist status, that we should not treat them any differently when it comes to looking at overall plays this week. However, they are not the specialist we need.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 36
Strong Field Performance
This is where we separate the boys from the men. Boyz II Men, if you will.
Performance against strong fields is not only about the added pressure that comes along with playing on the biggest stages. It’s also about outperforming the elite of the elite. You have to be on your A-game to constantly perform against this caliber of field.
Of the 36 golfers left on our list, we can narrow our list down to eight potential specialists. Here they are:
David Lingmerth (0.926 sg:strong vs. 0.058 sg:total)
Tony Finau (1.759 sg:strong vs. 0.917 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (1.361 sg:strong vs. 0.991 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (0.403 sg:strong vs. 0.199 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (0.838 sg:strong vs. 0.686 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (0.689 sg:strong vs. 0.583 sg:total)
Russell Henley (0.218 sg:strong vs. 0.132 sg:total)
Brandt Snedeker (0.882 sg:strong vs. 0.832 sg:total)
Sorry about that Scott Piercy and Scott Brown, but you guys need to step your game up.
Spieth is an unusual case. He’s played in so many weaker and average field events where he can just dominate the field, its hard for him to live up to those numbers. So even with his phenomenal performance in all the majors this year, his actual strokes gained in strong field events is still lower than his overall expected SG.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 8
Easy Courses
Some golfers like a good challenge, others just like to coast through the easy parts of town.
Looking at all events where the average field score is -0.75 per round or easier, these golfers rise to the occasion.
Of the eight golfers on our list, we can weed out five more at this stage. After eliminating those five, here are the three golfers that perform better when the course is not so tough (sg:easy):
Russell Henley (0.908 sg:easy vs. 0.132 sg:total)
Brandt Snedeker (1.567 sg:easy vs. 0.832 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (0.522 sg:easy vs. 0.199 sg:total)
While they’ve already been eliminated, its also worth noting that Charley Hoffman, Webb Simpson, and Zach Johnson all play easy courses at more than a stroke better, per round, than their expected output (since start of 2013-14).
GOLFERS REMAINING: 3
Easy Fairways
With a smaller field this week, it turns out we didn’t need to use this angle after all!
For what its worth, Johnson Wagner and Louis Oosthuizen are the two that really stand out when it comes to playing on easy fairways.
Here is our initial list of specialists this week at TPC Boston:
Russell Henley
Brandt Snedeker
Bryce Molder
The Specialist
We’ve weaseled our way down to three specialist, but there can only be one! Just like Highlander.
This week that honor goes to Bryce Molder. Molder couldn’t be here today to accept this award, as he’s busy preparing for his next big finish in Norton, Massachusetts. Hopefully we can all celebrate together on Monday.
All three specialists put up a good fight, but in the end it was the par-71 tiebreaker that separated Molder from Henley and Snedeker.
Please use the table below to filter and sort to your heart’s desire. Anything below -0.500 in a column should be considered a red flag.
That number indicated they will play one shot lower than their expected performance before the cut. That can often be the difference between a missed cut and a backdoor top 25.
| Golfer | Par 71 | Bentgrass | Strong Field | Easy Course | Easy Fairways | Specialist Rating |
| Johnson Wagner | 0.168 | 0.392 | 0.000 | 0.946 | 1.048 | 0.511 |
| Zach Johnson | 0.119 | 0.121 | -0.221 | 1.069 | 0.590 | 0.336 |
| Justin Rose | -0.163 | 0.419 | -0.115 | 0.639 | 0.840 | 0.324 |
| Jordan Spieth | 0.171 | 0.105 | -0.305 | 0.722 | 0.744 | 0.287 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 0.000 | 0.122 | 0.152 | 0.000 | 1.162 | 0.287 |
| Hunter Mahan | 1.016 | 0.176 | -0.196 | -0.032 | 0.370 | 0.267 |
| Bryce Molder | 0.143 | 0.012 | 0.203 | 0.323 | 0.635 | 0.263 |
| Russell Henley | -0.280 | 0.184 | 0.085 | 0.775 | 0.479 | 0.249 |
| Troy Merritt | 0.991 | 0.090 | -0.530 | 0.358 | 0.236 | 0.229 |
| Tony Finau | -0.347 | 0.767 | 0.842 | -0.245 | 0.008 | 0.205 |
| Chad Campbell | 0.239 | 0.413 | 0.000 | -0.073 | 0.438 | 0.203 |
| Bill Haas | -0.140 | -0.019 | -0.023 | 0.807 | 0.265 | 0.178 |
| Carl Pettersson | 0.019 | 0.217 | -0.552 | 0.600 | 0.571 | 0.171 |
| Jimmy Walker | 0.593 | -0.176 | -0.457 | 0.856 | -0.002 | 0.163 |
| Brandt Snedeker | -0.608 | 0.283 | 0.050 | 0.735 | 0.341 | 0.160 |
| David Lingmerth | -0.774 | 0.635 | 0.869 | -0.408 | 0.469 | 0.158 |
| Cameron Tringale | 0.004 | -0.167 | 0.000 | 0.777 | 0.158 | 0.155 |
| Rickie Fowler | 0.574 | 0.705 | 0.370 | -0.798 | -0.097 | 0.151 |
| Scott Pinckney | 0.000 | 0.776 | 0.000 | 0.014 | -0.067 | 0.145 |
| Davis Love III | 0.108 | 0.035 | -0.315 | 0.480 | 0.336 | 0.129 |
| Danny Lee | -0.135 | 0.356 | -0.109 | 0.434 | 0.003 | 0.110 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0.283 | -0.036 | -0.162 | 0.000 | 0.426 | 0.103 |
| Jerry Kelly | 0.298 | 0.219 | -0.804 | 0.421 | 0.338 | 0.094 |
| Steven Bowditch | -0.553 | 0.402 | -0.090 | 0.308 | 0.403 | 0.094 |
| Jim Furyk | 0.271 | 0.230 | -0.123 | 0.000 | 0.059 | 0.088 |
| Sean O’Hair | 0.463 | -0.433 | -0.142 | 0.214 | 0.307 | 0.082 |
| Hudson Swafford | 0.205 | 0.180 | -0.662 | 0.139 | 0.542 | 0.081 |
| Kevin Chappell | -0.142 | 0.386 | 0.106 | -0.168 | 0.208 | 0.078 |
| Henrik Stenson | 0.000 | -0.083 | -0.005 | 0.000 | 0.475 | 0.077 |
| Colt Knost | 0.000 | 0.492 | 0.000 | 0.483 | -0.605 | 0.074 |
| Dustin Johnson | 0.000 | 0.153 | -0.005 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.067 |
| Rory Mcilroy | 0.000 | 0.213 | -0.121 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.059 |
| Kevin Streelman | 0.443 | -0.171 | -0.560 | 0.299 | 0.217 | 0.046 |
| Ryan Palmer | -0.121 | -0.352 | -0.137 | 0.187 | 0.643 | 0.044 |
| Kyle Reifers | 0.375 | -0.373 | 0.000 | 0.099 | 0.105 | 0.041 |
| Morgan Hoffmann | 0.333 | -0.104 | -0.127 | 0.182 | -0.080 | 0.041 |
| Webb Simpson | 0.079 | -0.177 | -0.879 | 1.151 | 0.025 | 0.040 |
| Nick Watney | -0.121 | 0.035 | -0.431 | 0.671 | 0.039 | 0.039 |
| Scott Piercy | -0.148 | 0.320 | -0.808 | 0.729 | 0.084 | 0.035 |
| Justin Thomas | 0.495 | 0.028 | -0.235 | 0.174 | -0.305 | 0.031 |
| Robert Streb | -0.163 | -0.108 | -0.295 | 0.775 | -0.057 | 0.030 |
| Jim Herman | 0.439 | -0.397 | 0.000 | 0.159 | -0.056 | 0.029 |
| Paul Casey | 0.000 | -0.076 | -0.333 | 0.491 | 0.043 | 0.025 |
| Keegan Bradley | -0.322 | -0.107 | -0.253 | 0.577 | 0.198 | 0.019 |
| Jason Dufner | -0.082 | -0.143 | -0.153 | 0.000 | 0.444 | 0.013 |
| Luke Donald | 0.441 | -0.368 | -0.218 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.007 |
| Charley Hoffman | -0.089 | -0.204 | -0.636 | 1.386 | -0.443 | 0.003 |
| Alex Cejka | 0.582 | -0.781 | 0.000 | 0.555 | -0.370 | -0.003 |
| Russell Knox | 0.211 | -0.130 | 0.046 | 0.033 | -0.180 | -0.004 |
| Kevin Kisner | -0.494 | -0.064 | 0.017 | -0.131 | 0.640 | -0.006 |
| Ian Poulter | -0.353 | 0.425 | -0.153 | 0.000 | 0.025 | -0.011 |
| Spencer Levin | 0.117 | -0.221 | 0.000 | 0.110 | -0.086 | -0.016 |
| Patrick Reed | -0.267 | -0.128 | -0.027 | -0.133 | 0.457 | -0.020 |
| Phil Mickelson | 0.000 | -0.058 | -0.221 | 0.000 | 0.150 | -0.026 |
| Daniel Berger | 0.000 | -0.698 | 0.011 | 0.413 | 0.136 | -0.028 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.087 | -0.043 | -0.819 | 0.205 | 0.377 | -0.038 |
| Brooks Koepka | 0.206 | -0.054 | -0.103 | -0.062 | -0.182 | -0.039 |
| David Hearn | -0.303 | -0.052 | 0.057 | 0.264 | -0.169 | -0.041 |
| Jason Day | 0.000 | -0.288 | -0.161 | 0.394 | -0.168 | -0.045 |
| Ryan Moore | 0.187 | -0.136 | -0.572 | 0.103 | 0.171 | -0.049 |
| Ben Martin | 0.046 | -0.307 | -0.488 | 0.988 | -0.571 | -0.066 |
| Brendon de Jonge | -0.316 | -0.054 | -0.477 | 0.045 | 0.463 | -0.068 |
| Daniel Summerhays | 0.087 | -0.385 | -0.043 | 0.221 | -0.231 | -0.071 |
| Billy Horschel | -0.359 | 0.074 | -0.101 | -0.235 | 0.263 | -0.072 |
| Jason Bohn | 0.197 | -0.187 | -0.843 | 0.679 | -0.208 | -0.072 |
| Will Wilcox | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.285 | -0.910 | -0.077 |
| Brian Harman | 0.219 | -0.033 | -0.490 | 0.128 | -0.223 | -0.080 |
| Fabian Gomez | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.468 | 0.000 | -0.094 |
| J.J. Henry | 0.142 | -0.015 | -0.529 | 0.262 | -0.347 | -0.097 |
| Scott Brown | 0.050 | 0.024 | -0.740 | 0.250 | -0.088 | -0.101 |
| James Hahn | -0.153 | -0.338 | -0.245 | 0.372 | -0.173 | -0.107 |
| Kevin Na | -0.112 | -0.134 | 0.021 | -0.449 | 0.106 | -0.114 |
| John Senden | 0.042 | -0.038 | 0.011 | -0.455 | -0.158 | -0.120 |
| Bubba Watson | 0.194 | -0.028 | -0.174 | 0.000 | -0.623 | -0.126 |
| Camilo Villegas | -0.350 | -0.373 | -0.035 | 0.267 | -0.144 | -0.127 |
| Shawn Stefani | 0.043 | -0.061 | -0.634 | 0.220 | -0.211 | -0.128 |
| Matt Jones | -0.226 | -0.655 | -0.114 | 0.146 | 0.194 | -0.131 |
| Charles Howell III | 0.070 | 0.025 | -0.594 | 0.319 | -0.531 | -0.142 |
| Matt Kuchar | -0.023 | -0.160 | -0.220 | -0.040 | -0.362 | -0.161 |
| J.B. Holmes | -0.514 | -0.336 | -0.237 | 0.909 | -0.652 | -0.166 |
| Jason Gore | -0.074 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.049 | -0.715 | -0.168 |
| Marc Leishman | -1.280 | 0.399 | -0.009 | 0.000 | 0.034 | -0.171 |
| Chesson Hadley | -0.311 | -0.422 | 0.035 | 0.042 | -0.215 | -0.174 |
| William McGirt | 0.515 | -0.118 | -1.235 | 0.200 | -0.255 | -0.179 |
| Zac Blair | -0.307 | -0.787 | 0.745 | -0.213 | -0.409 | -0.194 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 0.331 | -0.314 | 0.000 | -0.217 | -0.797 | -0.199 |
| Mark Wilson | -0.614 | -0.391 | 0.000 | 0.128 | -0.131 | -0.202 |
| Rory Sabbatini | -0.830 | -0.637 | -0.088 | 0.483 | -0.054 | -0.225 |
| George McNeill | -0.558 | -0.146 | 0.144 | -0.511 | -0.291 | -0.273 |
| Sang-moon Bae | -0.076 | -0.725 | -0.496 | -0.332 | 0.156 | -0.295 |
| Matt Every | 0.399 | -1.455 | -0.593 | 0.000 | 0.174 | -0.295 |
| Gary Woodland | -0.434 | -0.421 | -0.382 | 0.035 | -0.296 | -0.300 |
| Chris Kirk | -0.573 | 0.277 | -0.207 | -0.590 | -0.489 | -0.317 |
| Martin Laird | 0.133 | -0.143 | -1.218 | -0.186 | -0.182 | -0.319 |
| Brendan Steele | 0.114 | -0.483 | -0.275 | -0.241 | -0.755 | -0.328 |
| Harris English | -0.112 | -0.699 | -0.506 | -0.094 | -0.576 | -0.397 |
| Jason Kokrak | 0.162 | -1.028 | -0.568 | -0.230 | -0.360 | -0.405 |
| Pat Perez | -0.557 | -0.989 | -0.861 | 0.377 | -0.004 | -0.407 |
| Boo Weekley | -0.768 | -0.527 | -1.065 | 0.194 | -1.591 | -0.751 |