Searching for a Specialist: Farmers Insurance
Welcome back to another search for the mysterious specialist. To review last week, we saw a pair of specialists, Kevin Na and Bill Haas, land in the top 10. Other than that, it was a mixed bag. Definitely room to dial things in this week as we go very, very in depth.
For our search this week we will look at performance on difficult fairways, par 72 tracks, and hard courses.We finish up with history on long courses over 7,400 yards.
I’ve also included Poa annua performance in the spreadsheet at the bottom, but did not include in our search due to sample size issues for much of the field.
Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got DraftKings PGA incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from Notorious, as well as top plays from 2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year, Gibbathy, and a weekly course breakdown! Find out more about our incentives offerings here!
Difficult Fairways
These golfers have been spoiled early in the season. This is their first true test and it begins on the tee box. Torrey Pines yields just 50 percent of fairways hits most years. That is near the bottom. Very tough fairways to hit.
Some golfers excel under these conditions, here are the top 10 difficult fairway specialists in the field:
Carlos Ortiz (0.766 sg:hard fairways vs. -0.032 sg:total)
Rory Sabbatini (0.813 sg:hard fairways vs. 0.089 sg:total)
Chez Reavie (0.769 sg:hard fairways vs. 0.065 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (0.291 sg:hard fairways vs. -0.406 sg:total)
Ben Crane (0.425 sg:hard fairways vs. -0.265 sg:total)
Michael Thompson (0.6 sg:hard fairways vs. -0.027 sg:total)
K.J. Choi (0.831 sg:hard fairways vs. 0.214 sg:total)
Cameron Percy (0.601 sg:hard fairways vs. 0.023 sg:total)
Tyrone Van Aswegen (0.323 sg:hard fairways vs. -0.233 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (1.202 sg:hard fairways vs. 0.66 sg:total)
The first call out here will be Rickie Fowler. For a golfer with so many podium finishes to his name, it’s telling to see zero podium finishes on courses that are on difficulty to hit fairways. He’s missed the cut in four of his 13 starts since the starts of 2013-14. Add in jet lag after a 17-hour flight, and I will be staying away this week.
Next is Brandt Snedeker. He sports great course history but it’s not a case of being a perfect fit for this specific type of course. Perhaps its a combination of these poa annua greens combined with sightlines he likes off the tee. Either way, he’s not our specialist this week.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 58
California Lovin’
While most of the TOUR events are scheduled on the East Coast, we get slightly less than a hand full played in Cali each year. There is something to be said about consistently performing well during this stretch.
Whether its the grasses or the seasonal weather, here are the top California specialists that remain:
Scott Stallings (0.791 sg:cali vs. -0.406 sg:total)
Martin Laird (1.142 sg:cali vs. 0.146 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (1.023 sg:cali vs. 0.079 sg:total)
Carlos Ortiz (0.871 sg:cali vs. -0.032 sg:total)
Harris English (1.59 sg:cali vs. 0.783 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.423 sg:cali vs. -0.344 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (0.78 sg:cali vs. 0.015 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (1.536 sg:cali vs. 0.772 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (1.331 sg:cali vs. 0.576 sg:total)
James Hahn (0.748 sg:cali vs. 0.016 sg:total)
This is the part where we lose a few studs due to pure sample size. Many golfers haven’t reached the 20 round minimum in Cali (Since start of 2013-14), so they get a big line across their name. Sorry, but it has to be done as we look for a TRUE specialist.
That includes Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day, Daniel Berger, Gary Woodland, and Paul Casey. Some tough losses, but our search goes on!
GOLFERS REMAINING: 31
Par 72 Tracks
We know from past specialist searches that past par 72 performance is a very good indicator of future par 72 success.
Of our remaining 31 golfers, these on the top 10 par 72 specialists:
Scott Pinckney (0.313 sg:par72 vs. -0.24 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (0.976 sg:par72 vs. 0.576 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (0.479 sg:par72 vs. 0.079 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.013 sg:par72 vs. -0.344 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (0.997 sg:par72 vs. 0.666 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (0.333 sg:par72 vs. 0.015 sg:total)
Retief Goosen (0.335 sg:par72 vs. 0.058 sg:total)
Chez Reavie (0.308 sg:par72 vs. 0.065 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (0.097 sg:par72 vs. -0.127 sg:total)
Carlos Ortiz (0.183 sg:par72 vs. -0.032 sg:total)
If you’re paying close attention so far, Carlos Ortiz is our only 3-for-3 so far. Line him up this week! He is certainly due for a top 25 and finished T11 here last year.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 23
Hard Courses
We’ve talked about performance when fairways are hard to hit, but what about when the course is just tough, in general? Looking at past performance when the field average is 0.75 strokes over-par or higher, this is the bunch that stands out above the rest.
Matt Jones (1.236 sg:hard vs. 0.392 sg:total)
Michael Thompson (0.799 sg:hard vs. -0.027 sg:total)
Seung-yul Noh (0.913 sg:hard vs. 0.174 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.512 sg:hard vs. 0.794 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (1.391 sg:hard vs. 0.772 sg:total)
James Hahn (0.41 sg:hard vs. 0.016 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (0.26 sg:hard vs. -0.127 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (0.931 sg:hard vs. 0.576 sg:total)
Pat Perez (0.394 sg:hard vs. 0.228 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (1.112 sg:hard vs. 1.018 sg:total)
While gentlemen above enjoy a tough test of golf, we lose guys like Charles Howell III, Scott Stallings because they do not. These two mentioned are actually interesting examples since they have great course history. So, even though they aren’t specialists, they are nice course horses.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 12
Long Courses
With three of four rounds being played at Torrey Pines South (nearly 7,700 yards), this angle is an important one to look at.
Even though Pat Perez has a long history with Torrey Pines, we have to cut bait here since he just doesn’t get it done on long tracks. Same goes for James Hahn, Angel Cabrera, and Kevin Streelman.
The Specialists
J.B. Holmes
Michael Thompson
Matt Jones
Brendan Steele
Patrick Reed
Seung-Yul Noh
Jimmy Walker
The list above is also the final ranking for our specialists. That means J.B. Holmes is our specialist of the week!
Using the patented eye test, we can confirm this checks out. Holmes is a bomber that struggles with consistency with the putter. Have no fear, because this bomber’s paradise will allow him to gain ground on the field before he even reaches for the flat stick. It helps that he finished runner-up last year!
Check out the full Specialist Table for more detailed data. You can sort and filter to your heart’s desire. Best of luck in all your matchups this week.