Searching for a Specialist: Honda Classic
Welcome back to another week of specialist searching.
Like always, let’s review last week. The top three specialists finished T5, T11 and 4th place. After that, we saw a lot of carnage, mostly right on the number. That was the trend of the week as many highly-owned golfers bogeyed the difficult par-4 18th hole to fall outside the cut line.
Our search this week will look at performance on Less-than-Driver Courses, Bermudagrass Greens, and finish up by looking at Par 70 performance. Keep it simple is what we like to do.
Here we go….
Less-than-Driver Courses
Most courses on TOUR these days are catered to the bombers. PGA National is not one of those. The average driving distance of the field since 2010 is a measly 270 yards.
That means the course layout forces the golfers to club down. These guys aren’t hitting 270 yards drives by choice. It’s the only place the course will let them hit it.
I’ve taken a look at similar courses and find that golfers who don’t rely on driving distance generally succeed on these types of tracks.
The top 10 less-than-driver specialists in the field are:
Matt Every (0.873 sg:less than driver vs. -0.438 sg:total)
Matt Jones (1.231 sg:less than driver vs. 0.42 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (0.874 sg:less than driver vs. 0.077 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.428 sg:less than driver vs. -0.28 sg:total)
Mark Hubbard (0.646 sg:less than driver vs. -0.053 sg:total)
Blayne Barber (0.494 sg:less than driver vs. -0.17 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.106 sg:less than driver vs. 0.463 sg:total)
Jamie Donaldson (1.108 sg:less than driver vs. 0.473 sg:total)
Cameron Tringale (1.062 sg:less than driver vs. 0.43 sg:total)
Jamie Lovemark (0.808 sg:less than driver vs. 0.251 sg:total)
Usually we have to get to Bermuda before we eliminate Tony Finau but he gets the boot during this stage instead. In his 11 starts on less-than-driver courses, he’s missed the cut in eight. Add in his terrible bermuda stats, and I would be shocked if we see a top 25 from Finau this week.
A few other big names we cross off the list here include: Hideki Matsuyama, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Rory McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka.
There is nothing super alarming about any of the LT Driver performances from the above group of studs. It’s to be expected that bombers will lose some of their typical edge this week. That being said, that group is full of elite golfers and they still have the winning upside without their distance. Just don’t bank on it.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 67
Bermuda Greens
The start of the Florida Swing means plenty of bermudagrass greens on the horizon. Get used to see this crop of names popping up.
The Southeastern part of the country is really what I would consider “bermudaland”. Guys that spent their high school or college life playing in this area are generally the ones we want to target.
Of the 67 golfers left in our search, these are the top 10 bermuda specialists:
Matt Every (0.664 sg:bermuda vs. -0.438 sg:total)
Fabian Gomez (0.78 sg:bermuda vs. 0.081 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (1.089 sg:bermuda vs. 0.427 sg:total)
Ben Martin (0.896 sg:bermuda vs. 0.274 sg:total)
Pat Perez (0.86 sg:bermuda vs. 0.244 sg:total)
Blayne Barber (0.399 sg:bermuda vs. -0.17 sg:total)
Ryan Palmer (1.482 sg:bermuda vs. 0.969 sg:total)
Luke Donald (0.933 sg:bermuda vs. 0.443 sg:total)
Erik Compton (0.388 sg:bermuda vs. -0.05 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.147 sg:bermuda vs. -0.28 sg:total)
At this stage we have two name popping out, Blayne Barber and Matt Every have made both lists thus far. It would be crazy to flat out recommend these guys as safe plays, but you have to take note.
Both also have ties to Florida. Barber grew up in Florida and attended UCF before transferring to Auburn. Every Every was born and raised in Florida, was a Gator and still calls Florida home today.
Patrick Reed is a tough loss here. His overall bermuda numbers are slightly worse than his baseline SG:Total. On the flip side, three of his four victories have come on bermuda. Definitely not a fade, but not our specialist this week.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 51
Par 70 Courses
This next angle is par 70 venues. When the TOUR takes on par 71 tracks like last week, I generally avoid those stats, but par 70 and par 72s are very indicative of future success.
Golfers that rely on par 5 scoring can struggle on par 70 courses where there are just two par 5s per round. For some it’s mental. If they lose a stroke or two and know they’ve already missed their par-5 scoring opportunity, they may start to press and go the wrong way in a hurry.
Of our remaining 51 golfers, these are top 10 par 70 specialists:
Chris Kirk (1.114 sg:par70 vs. 0.519 sg:total)
Steve Marino (0.269 sg:par70 vs. -0.266 sg:total)
Pat Perez (0.768 sg:par70 vs. 0.244 sg:total)
Robert Allenby (-0.233 sg:par70 vs. -0.734 sg:total)
George McNeill (0.955 sg:par70 vs. 0.461 sg:total)
David Lingmerth (0.537 sg:par70 vs. 0.053 sg:total)
Brian Harman (0.806 sg:par70 vs. 0.381 sg:total)
Luke Donald (0.849 sg:par70 vs. 0.443 sg:total)
David Hearn (0.636 sg:par70 vs. 0.274 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (0.425 sg:par70 vs. 0.077 sg:total)
This is where we lose the aforementioned Blayne Barber. In eight starts on par 70s, he’s missed the cut in six of them. Let’s see if the first two specialist categories can trump that this week.
We already lost Justin Thomas in our search but this angle is were he really plummets. In 10 career starts on par 70s he’s finished outside the top 50 in eight of them! It could be something he learns with age, but right now I will avoid until he gives me a reason not to.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 21
Baseline Performance
This may be my favorite section of the article each week. This is where we trim the fat to make the specialists more reliable.
The criteria I like to use is a baseline Strokes Gained:Total of 0.250 or higher. Over four rounds, that would equal out to gaining at least one stroke over the field.
This week we can use this SG:Total cutoff to eliminate the following names:
Pat Perez
Jeff Overton
Scott Brown
Carl Pettersson
Seung-yul Noh
Russell Henley
Morgan Hoffmann
Fabian Gomez
Stuart Appleby
David Lingmerth
Mark Hubbard
Steve Marino
Davis Love III
Mark Wilson
Robert Allenby
Like usual, we see some golfers with some legit course history here. That includes the 2014 champion, Russell Henley and 2007 champion, Mark Wilson.
The list above is good for GPP lineups where you are trying to go contrarian or need a cheapie to fit under the salary cap.
The Specialists
Luke Donald
Jason Dufner
Ben Martin
Scott Piercy
Ryan Palmer
George McNeill
Chris Kirk
Daniel Berger
Jamie Lovemark
Kevin Kisner
David Hearn
Brian Harman
Brendon de Jonge
Drumroll please…. the specialist of the week is Luke Donald!
Donald loves bermuda, he loves courses that take driver out of your hand, and loves a course when it has fewer par 5s. A perfect match!
Dufner was right behind him, and that makes perfect sense. Dufner doesn’t gain much with his driver, but he will plaster greens with the best of them.
McNeill is an interesting case because he looks like a complete mess based on early-season performance. Will a return to Florida revitalize him? There is a decent chance.
Check out the full Specialist Table for more detailed data. I included a few extra categories in the spreadsheet to use as tiebreakers. You can sort and filter to your heart’s desire. Best of luck in all your matchups this week.