Searching for a Specialist: Hong Kong Open
Welcome back to the final specialist search of the 2016 calendar year. We’ll remain overseas since there is no PGA TOUR action going on this week.
Last week we had a large list of 13 specialists for the Alfred Dunhill. Two of them missed the cut, but the remaining 11 finishes inside the top 35. Seven of them were T11 or better while five of them finished T4 or better! Let’s see if we can duplicate that to end 2016 on a very high note.
The tournament this week is played in Asia on a short, par-70 layout with bermuda greens.
Par 70 courses are actually so rare on the Euro Tour that I excluded it this week due to small sample sizes. That leaves us with performance in Asia, short courses, and bermudagrass greens.
Here we go…
Performance in Asia
Last week the tournament was hosted in South Africa, but this week we head to Hong Kong. If you compare long-term results in Africa and Asia, you likely won’t see much overlap.
That means we shouldn’t get too worked up about a missed cut at last week’s Alfred Dunhill.
We heavily targeted South Africans last week due to their familiarity with the region, so which golfers fit the bill this week in terms of playing golf in Asia?
The Top 10 Asian Golf Specialists are:
Paul Peterson (1.868 sg:Asian Continent vs. 0.892 sg:total)
Peter Uihlein (2.685 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.79 sg:total)
SSP Chawrasia (1.495 sg:Asian Continent vs. 0.705 sg:total)
Brett Rumford (1.521 sg:Asian Continent vs. 0.815 sg:total)
Scott Hend (2.089 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.411 sg:total)
Prom Meesawat (1.835 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.191 sg:total)
Gregory Havret (1.903 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.275 sg:total)
Jason Knutzon (1.15 sg:Asian Continent vs. 0.544 sg:total)
Mikko Ilonen (1.947 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.384 sg:total)
Jorge Campillo (2.063 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.527 sg:total)
We have zero South Africans on the list this week, but plenty of golfers that are very familiar with the Far East.
Looking at top 25s in Asia since 2015, there are four golfers in this field that have nine top 25s to their name. They are Julien Quesne, Peter Uihlein, Jorge Campillo, and Scott Hend.
On the flip side, Daniel Brooks, Edoardo Molinari, and Simon Dyson have played 33 events in Asia (since 2015) without finding a single top 25. It’s probably safe to avoid them.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 33
Short Courses
This week’s venue, Hong Kong Golf Club, is a measly 6,700 yards.
That means the bombers lose their typical edge off the tee box. That doesn’t mean we should avoid them all entirley. They will still be able to hit more fairways than normal due to clubbing down on the tee. Then from there, they will be hitting slightly less club into the greens, as well.
If we group all courses under 7,100 yards into the “short course” bucket, then we can find out what golfers excel on these type of layouts.
The 10 Short Course Specialists remaining:
SSP Chawrasia (1.998 sg:short vs. 0.705 sg:total)
Pablo Larrazabal (2.818 sg:short vs. 1.678 sg:total)
Julien Quesne (2.683 sg:short vs. 1.758 sg:total)
Robert Rock (2.359 sg:short vs. 1.719 sg:total)
Wade Ormsby (1.706 sg:short vs. 1.099 sg:total)
Paul Peterson (1.481 sg:short vs. 0.892 sg:total)
Marcus Fraser (2.146 sg:short vs. 1.605 sg:total)
Jazz Janewattananond (1.321 sg:short vs. 0.84 sg:total)
Scott Hend (1.765 sg:short vs. 1.411 sg:total)
Gregory Havret (1.618 sg:short vs. 1.275 sg:total)
Looking for duplicates, we see Paul Peterson, SSP Chawrasia, Scott Hend, and Gregory Havret all appearing on both lists so far.
Julien Quesne has found top 25s in six of his last nine starts when the course is less than 7,100 yards.
Pablo Larrazabal has an equally impressive resume, finding top 25s in five of his last seven short-course starts.
Jason Knutzon (Go CYCLONES!) showed up on our first list, but he’s failed to find a top 25 in 14 starts on shorter layouts. You can avoid.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 47
Bermudagrass Greens
Bermudagrass greens are the norm in Asia, so it’s not surprising to see a correlation between bermuda performance and performance in Asia.
The are sevent golfers that pass the test in terms of bermuda performance since 2015.
The Remaining Bermuda specialists:
Jorge Campillo (1.897 sg:bermuda vs. 1.527 sg:total)
Pablo Larrazabal (1.967 sg:bermuda vs. 1.678 sg:total)
Peter Uihlein (2.022 sg:bermuda vs. 1.79 sg:total)
Jbe’ Kruger (0.765 sg:bermuda vs. 0.627 sg:total)
Gregory Havret (1.395 sg:bermuda vs. 1.275 sg:total)
Robert Rock (1.818 sg:bermuda vs. 1.719 sg:total)
Scott Hend (1.484 sg:bermuda vs. 1.411 sg:total)
We gave six golfers the boot due to small sample sizes on bermuda. For what it’s worth, SSP Chawrasia, Paul Peterson, Jazz Janewattananond, Terry Pilkadaris, and Nacho Elvira all had an SG:Bermuda greater than their baseline, but they did not have 25 rounds to qualify.
Jorge Campillo looks to be the bermuda specialist this week, finding top 25s in seven of his last 13 starts on bermuda.
Wade Ormsby is one you can avoid as he’s just 1-for-14 in terms of finding top 25s on bermuda, since 2015.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 7
Baseline Performance
We’ve narrowed our list of potential specialists to 7 golfers. Looking at recent play, we can eliminate one more golfer though, and that would be Peter Uihlein as he’s losing strokes to the field over the last 10 weeks of play.
Uihlein is an interesting case as he’s trying to play his way back from injury. When in full health, he’s a great fit for Hong Kong GC and he proved it last year with a T13 finish. If you’re willing to take a little risk, I think he still makes for a great GPP option this week.
The Specialists
Pablo Larrazabal
Jorge Campillo
Scott Hend
Gregory Havret
Robert Rock
Jbe’ Kruger
Our specialist this week is Pablo Larrazabal.
The Spaniard arrives with four straight cuts made, including an eighth-place finish at the Turkish Airlines Open back at the start of November. Form is not a problem. As for course history, he’s played here four times since 2006, posting a pair of top 10s but also missing the cut twice.
Another boom-or-bust specialist is Scott Hend. He won this event in 2014, but he’s also been pretty dreadful in his other showings.
Overall, this list has a lot more value plays than last week, when nearly all the specialists populated the top half of the salary list.
The Anti-Specialists
If we look for the exact opposite of our specialists, we can find some potential fades. This week we have three golfers that are negative in all three categories:
Daniel Brooks
Magnus A. Carlsson
Tommy Fleetwood
Tommy Fleetwood is a big name, so I don’t think you need to do an all-out fade if you liked him before reading this. My gut instinct was that Fleetwood would be a decent GPP option since he sports good form but no course history. However, it may not be a good idea to go all in on the Englishman as he sports zero course history and it looks to be a poor course fit, after all.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 20 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2015),
Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks (Euro Tour & PGA TOUR) and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained with positive numbers being a good thing.
| Golfer | DK | SG:Total | Form | Bermuda | Short | Asia | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSP Chawrasia | $6,400 | 0.71 | 0.03 | 0 | 1.29 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| Pablo Larrazabal | $8,300 | 1.68 | 1.13 | 0.29 | 1.14 | 0.24 | 0.56 |
| Paul Peterson | $5,900 | 0.89 | 0.14 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.98 | 0.52 |
| Brett Rumford | $6,700 | 0.81 | 0.87 | 0.56 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.42 |
| Peter Uihlein | $6,400 | 1.79 | -0.16 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 0.9 | 0.42 |
| Jorge Campillo | $7,400 | 1.53 | 0.74 | 0.37 | 0.21 | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| Scott Hend | $9,100 | 1.41 | 1.64 | 0.07 | 0.35 | 0.68 | 0.37 |
| Gregory Havret | $6,400 | 1.28 | 0.67 | 0.12 | 0.34 | 0.63 | 0.36 |
| Robert Rock | $7,400 | 1.72 | 0.94 | 0.1 | 0.64 | 0.3 | 0.35 |
| Andrew Dodt | $7,700 | 0.9 | 1.24 | 0.92 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.35 |
| Mikko Ilonen | $7,000 | 1.38 | 1.13 | 0.38 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.32 |
| Terry Pilkadaris | $6,000 | 0.92 | -0.16 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.5 | 0.27 |
| Jazz Janewattananond | $6,500 | 0.84 | 0 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Sam Brazel | $6,800 | 0.7 | 0.61 | 0.44 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| Jbe’ Kruger | $7,200 | 0.63 | 0.96 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| Julien Quesne | $7,500 | 1.76 | 0.4 | -0.57 | 0.93 | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| Marcus Fraser | $7,400 | 1.61 | -0.26 | -0.21 | 0.54 | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| Prom Meesawat | $7,600 | 1.19 | 0.48 | 0.44 | -0.51 | 0.64 | 0.19 |
| Jeunghun Wang | $9,600 | 1.7 | 1.63 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.08 | 0.18 |
| Stephen Gallacher | $8,900 | 1.3 | 1.47 | 0.33 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.18 |
| Shiv Kapur | $5,600 | 0.78 | 0 | -0.02 | 0.09 | 0.45 | 0.17 |
| David Lipsky | $8,500 | 1.52 | 1.16 | -0.21 | 0.85 | -0.15 | 0.16 |
| Renato Paratore | $7,300 | 1 | 1.19 | 0.23 | -0.23 | 0.5 | 0.16 |
| Wade Ormsby | $7,300 | 1.1 | 0.01 | -0.28 | 0.61 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Edoardo Molinari | $5,900 | 0.68 | -0.38 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 0.15 |
| Nacho Elvira | $8,200 | 0.92 | 1.36 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| Carlos Pigem | $6,700 | 1.21 | 0.99 | 0 | -0.11 | 0.53 | 0.14 |
| Simon Dyson | $7,000 | -0.51 | -0.02 | 0.19 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| Jason Knutzon | $6,000 | 0.54 | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | 0.61 | 0.1 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | $10,400 | 2.26 | 2.26 | 0.16 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.1 |
| David Howell | $6,600 | 1.9 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Justin Walters | $6,200 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0.06 |
| Adilson Da Silva | $6,300 | 1.26 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 0.06 |
| Kalem Richardson | $6,600 | 0.11 | 0.01 | -0.24 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.05 |
| Gregory Bourdy | $8,400 | 2.04 | 0.96 | -0.24 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.02 |
| Thomas Detry | $7,100 | 2.52 | 1.06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alexander Bjork | $6,900 | 2.44 | 0.77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lian-Wei Zhang | $5,500 | -1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Reed | $12,100 | 3.61 | -0.11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Frittelli | $7,800 | 1.54 | 0.56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Rose | $10,100 | 2.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nino Bertasio | $6,400 | 1.47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Dunne | $7,100 | 1.5 | 0.76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Poulter | $8,800 | 2.28 | 1.18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chan Shih-chang | $7,300 | 1.55 | -0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrence Ng | $6,300 | -5.82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Himmat Singh Rai | $5,900 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Lewton | $6,400 | -0.69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard T. Lee | $6,100 | 1.46 | -0.04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Groom | $5,700 | -0.41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Norris | $6,200 | 0.46 | -0.37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Waring | $6,000 | 1.49 | 0.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Masahiro Kawamura | $5,900 | 0.94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Walker | $7,200 | 0.31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mithun Perera | $5,600 | -0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jyoti Randhawa | $7,600 | 1.36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Hanson | $8,000 | 1.32 | 0.41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Angelo Que | $7,200 | 1.32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashid Khan | $6,500 | 1.28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juvic Pagunsan | $6,700 | 1.29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Horne | $6,200 | 1.68 | 0.84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chieh-po Lee | $5,700 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Siddikur Rahman | $5,800 | 1.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danthai Boonma | $6,100 | -1.55 | -0.07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gaganjeet Bhullar | $7,800 | 0.35 | -0.04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thitiphun Chuayprakong | $6,000 | 1.07 | 0.61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Soomin Lee | $7,500 | 1.09 | -0.97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javier Colomo | $7,000 | -2.18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WC Liang | $6,300 | 0.55 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chapchai Nirat | $6,100 | 1.07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Humphrey Wong | $5,700 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Munson | $5,800 | 0.27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duncan Stewart | $5,600 | -0.63 | -0.07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rich Beem | $5,500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Barr | $6,500 | -0.24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Lascuna | $6,000 | 0.48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rahil Gangjee | $6,800 | 1.49 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Panuphol Pittayarat | $6,900 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Fung | $6,900 | 0.48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lionel Weber | $6,900 | 0.14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Kimsey | $6,600 | 0.18 | -0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Perrier | $6,600 | 0.03 | 0.34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chien-yao Hung | $6,300 | -0.16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chawalit Plaphol | $6,100 | 0.88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Henry | $6,300 | 1 | -0.11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chinnarat Phadungsil | $6,200 | 0.73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Chia | $5,900 | 1.01 | -0.75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thanyakon Khrongpha | $6,100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joel Stalter | $6,100 | 0.44 | 0.63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unho Park | $5,600 | -0.26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wen-tang Lin | $5,900 | 0.96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Stewart | $5,500 | -0.82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wei-chih Lu | $5,800 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pep Angles | $5,800 | 0.11 | -0.61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pavit Tangkamolprasert | $5,700 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yannick Nathan Artigolle | $5,500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yin Ho Yue | $5,500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernd Ritthammer | $6,800 | 1.17 | 0.84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Im | $6,800 | 0.89 | -0.34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pariya Junhasavasdikul | $5,800 | 0.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arjun Atwal | $5,500 | 0.87 | -0.09 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastien Gros | $6,600 | 0.7 | -1.29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chiragh Kumar | $6,200 | 0.55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haydn Porteous | $6,000 | -0.1 | -0.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Smith | $6,700 | 0.87 | -0.16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zecheng Dou | $6,500 | 0.9 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Armitage | $6,200 | 0.67 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Natipong Srithong | $5,700 | 0.73 | -0.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthieu Pavon | $6,900 | 0.66 | 0.56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Tiley | $5,500 | 0.51 | -0.11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Scrivener | $8,100 | 1.3 | 0.66 | 0.25 | -0.28 | 0 | -0.01 |
| Miguel Tabuena | $7,100 | 0.66 | -0.14 | 0 | 0 | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| Benjamin Hebert | $8,700 | 1.59 | 0.74 | -0.16 | -0.13 | 0.21 | -0.03 |
| Mardan Mamat | $5,600 | 0.77 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | -0.28 | -0.05 |
| David Drysdale | $7,000 | 1.31 | 1.1 | -0.32 | 0.15 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Thongchai Jaidee | $9,300 | 2.65 | 1.75 | -0.31 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.1 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $9,000 | 1.76 | 1.02 | -0.52 | 0 | 0.12 | -0.13 |
| Chris Paisley | $6,500 | 1.23 | 0.73 | 0 | 0.23 | -0.66 | -0.14 |
| Lasse Jensen | $6,700 | 0.94 | 1.03 | 0 | -0.51 | 0 | -0.17 |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | $7,900 | 1.58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.51 | -0.17 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,900 | 1.94 | 1.8 | -0.26 | -0.32 | -0.21 | -0.26 |
| Graeme Storm | $7,700 | 1.18 | 1.14 | 0 | -0.49 | -0.31 | -0.27 |
| Magnus A. Carlsson | $6,300 | 1.45 | 0.34 | -0.59 | -0.13 | -0.17 | -0.3 |
| Daniel Brooks | $6,400 | 0.56 | 0.29 | -0.66 | 0 | -0.44 | -0.36 |
| Danny Willett | $10,600 | 2.73 | -0.07 | -0.79 | 0 | -0.45 | -0.41 |
| Romain Wattel | $6,800 | 1.47 | -0.24 | -1.16 | 0.17 | -0.27 | -0.42 |