Searching for a Specialist: Mayakoba Golf Classic

Turning our attention to El Camaleon Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, it’s time to hunt for a specialist.

In this article, that terms references a golfer that checks every box from a course-fit perspective. At least the boxes I’ve plucked out as most correlated, based on past editions of this event and all tournaments in general.

Reviewing our search from last week, TPC Summerlin continued to be an odd course in that most of the angles proved to be less correlated than baseline performance by itself. Our specialists were all bargain-bin options and went 3-for-4 overall but only Laird finished inside the top 30. So, despite the lack of stellar correlation, it wasn’t a disaster of a week.

This week we look at Performance on Grainy Greens, Performance on Coastal Courses, Performance on Easy-to-Hit Greens, and Performance against Weak Fields.

Performance on Grainy Greens

This week’s course features paspalum greens but this surface is rarely used on TOUR. We see it in Puerto Rico and Corales and used to see it in Malaysia.

Instead of relying on a small sample, we can combine the data with bermuda which shares a lot of the same characteristics.

The 10 Grainy Greens Specialists:

Oscar Fraustro (0.597 sg:grainy vs. -0.154 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (1.406 sg:grainy vs. 0.86 sg:total)
Aaron Wise (2.003 sg:grainy vs. 1.525 sg:total)
Shawn Stefani (1.21 sg:grainy vs. 0.765 sg:total)
Cody Gribble (0.502 sg:grainy vs. 0.096 sg:total)
Denny McCarthy (1.275 sg:grainy vs. 0.87 sg:total)
C.T. Pan (1.501 sg:grainy vs. 1.155 sg:total)
Keith Mitchell (1.484 sg:grainy vs. 1.157 sg:total)
Brian Gay (1.289 sg:grainy vs. 0.968 sg:total)
Adam Schenk (0.909 sg:grainy vs. 0.589 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained in Grainy Greens since 2014 are Rickie Fowler, Billy Horschel, Charles Howell III, Emiliano Grillo, and Gary Woodland.

For Fraustro I think this is a matter of comfort level at this course specifically. He’s made around 30 career starts but most of his damage has been done in this event, his home-country tournament. If we gave him a larger sample on a variety of grainy greens, I’m not sure the numbers would look the same.

Si Woo Kim on the other hand, loves grainy greens. He’s won the Wyndham and PLAYERS and had close calls here, Harbour Town, Waialae, and RTJ Trail. Bermuda and Paspalum is his friend.

Coastal Courses

Lots of coastal courses are also links layouts but sometimes a course just happens to be next to a large body of water.

This usually brings wind into the mix as it’s rare to see a truly calm day when you’re right next to the sea.

The Top 10 Coastal Specialists:

Freddie Jacobson (1.812 sg:coastal vs. 0.768 sg:total)
Ollie Schniederjans (1.998 sg:coastal vs. 1.007 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.64 sg:coastal vs. 0.739 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.845 sg:coastal vs. 0.984 sg:total)
Sangmoon Bae (1.172 sg:coastal vs. 0.323 sg:total)
Kelly Kraft (1.191 sg:coastal vs. 0.436 sg:total)
Kevin Streelman (1.963 sg:coastal vs. 1.251 sg:total)
Brice Garnett (1.25 sg:coastal vs. 0.578 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (3.346 sg:coastal vs. 2.719 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (1.525 sg:coastal vs. 0.912 sg:total)

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on coastal courses since 2014 are Jordan Spieth, Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, and Gary Woodland.

We see a lot of Sea Island Mafia pop up on this list. They are used to playing in coastal conditions with tricky winds often coming into the equation.

Freddie Yak shows up high on this list but he’s been off the radar for a few years now, being there for his son after heart surgery. He’s nowhere near the old Jacobson, at least not yet.

Ollie is also high on the list. His refusal to wear a hat obviously helps in coastal conditions because he doesn’t have to worry about his hat blowing away. Seriously, though, this would be a good spot for Ollie to pop if he had any kind of recent form.

Easy-to-Hit Greens

El Camaleon has a lot of big numbers lurking off the fairways but if you keep it slow and steady then greens are incredibly easy to hit.

The field has averaged about 67% of Greens in Regulation over the years, definitely on the easier side.

Without much wind in the forecast this week, I’d expect that number to flirt with 70 percent by week’s end.

The Top 10 Easy GIR Specialists:

Sam Ryder (1.894 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.989 sg:total)
Roberto Diaz (0.532 sg:easy GIR vs. -0.241 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.358 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.739 sg:total)
Harold Varner III (1.417 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.942 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.397 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.984 sg:total)
Aaron Wise (1.92 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.525 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (2.147 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.763 sg:total)
Cody Gribble (0.476 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.096 sg:total)
Beau Hossler (1.712 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.36 sg:total)
Keith Mitchell (1.489 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.157 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Easy GIR Courses since 2014 are Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar, Chris Kirk, Bryson DeChambeau, and Danny Lee.

We’ve now seen J.J. Spaun, Patton Kizzire, and Aaron Wise show up on two of these top-10 lists. We know Kizz won here last year, could JJ or Wise follow in his footsteps?

Down at the bottom of the list is Matt Kuchar. When I think of Kooch’s biggest asset, it’s the ability to battle in grind-it-out conditions where greens are tough to find and scrambling is a big asset. That’s just not the case on a course like this one.

Weak Field Events

This event has drawn a few big names this year (Spieth, Fowler, Finau).

Outside out that, everyone is below 30th in the OWGR. It gets really thin, really fast.

With a 212 OWGR SoF Rating, this falls under the category of Weak Field.

That helps some golfers feel more comfortable as they are competing against more of the journeymen and fewer superstars.

The Top 10 Weak Field Specialists:

Andrew Landry (1.607 sg:weak vs. 0.705 sg:total)
Ryan Moore (2.303 sg:weak vs. 1.664 sg:total)
Oscar Fraustro (0.394 sg:weak vs. -0.154 sg:total)
Billy Horschel (1.986 sg:weak vs. 1.459 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.213 sg:weak vs. 0.739 sg:total)
Abraham Ancer (1.338 sg:weak vs. 0.884 sg:total)
Richy Werenski (1.06 sg:weak vs. 0.616 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (1.172 sg:weak vs. 0.744 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.402 sg:weak vs. 0.984 sg:total)
Bud Cauley (1.687 sg:weak vs. 1.274 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Weak Fields since 2014 are Charles Howell III, Nick Taylor, Kevin Streelman, Chris Kirk, and Ryan Moore

Nick Taylor is very interesting here. He’s gained 5+ strokes over the field in more than 25% of his Weak Field starts but that number is lower than 10% in all other events.

Andrew Landry is notable because many still think of him as the guy who popped at Oakmont so they assume he might be a big-game hunter. He’s actually done the rest of his damage in the weakest of fields.

Billy Horschel could also get the wrong reputation because of his stellar runs in the FedExCup Playoffs. However, his weak field performance still trumps his overall resume against stronger fields.

Baseline Performance

We have a whopping 13 golfers who check the box in all four angles. Some of them fall outside the top 70 in long-term performance and/or current form.

Let’s leave those golfers to GPPs only. Here they are:

Patton Kizzire
Brian Gay
Kelly Kraft
Brice Garnett
Fabian Gomez
Scott Brown
Peter Malnati
Brian Harman
Sam Saunders

All of these names should be considered strong course fits but they have too many question marks surrounding them.

The Specialists

J.J. Spaun
Gary Woodland
Shawn Stefani
Charles Howell III

The specialist this week is J.J. Spaun!

Most weeks I look for +0.25 as a key marker in the Specialist Rating. That would equal a full stroke improvement over the course of a week.

This week, J.J. Spaun is greater than 0.25 in ALL FOUR ANGLES. This is one of the strongest course fits I’ve seen in a while.

After him in Gary Woodland who crushes it on coastal courses and Easy GIR courses. He’s also a two-time runner-up finisher at the CIMB Classic when it still used paspalum greens.

Stefani says this place reminds him of Houston because of the weather and grainy greens. He finished runner-up here in 2014 which is still matching the best result of his career.

Lastly, CH3 has always crushed on coastal layouts. He has SEVEN top 5s at the Sony Open, for example.

The Anti-Specialists

We have four golfers that qualify as specialists this week but who does the opposite, grading out negatively in all of the angles?

Bill Haas
Martin Laird
Rickie Fowler
Jim Furyk
James Hahn
Vaughn Taylor
Sean O’Hair
Carlos Ortiz
Bronson Burgoon
Sung Kang
Adam Hadwin
Charley Hoffman
Hunter Mahan

That’s another huge list. It even includes a course winner (Hoffman) and near winner (Fowler).

I’m not fading any of these guys based on their lack of course fit alone, but really only a few of these names have any appeal to me at all (Fowler, Laird, Ortiz).

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Gary Woodland
Ryan Moore
Chez Reavie
Joaquin Niemann
Tony Finau
Charles Howell III
Emiliano Grillo
Sam Ryder
J.B. Holmes
Scott Piercy
Billy Horschel
Kevin Chappell
Keith Mitchell
C.T. Pan
Pat Perez
Aaron Wise
J.J. Spaun
Bill Haas
Beau Hossler
Rickie Fowler

With Woodland and Moore at the top, this is starting to look like an old CIMB Classic leaderboard.

Spieth checks in way down at #37 due to his lack of form and poor course fit.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made small adjustments for sample sizes but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 6 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at SGTotal, FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Grainy Weak Field Easy GIR Coastal Specialist Rating Simple Rating
Patton Kizzire $7,300 $8,100 $13,600 0.739 2.304 2.837 0.204 0.474 0.619 0.901 0.55 384
J.J. Spaun $7,500 $9,000 $14,000 0.984 1.607 20.676 0.29 0.418 0.413 0.861 0.496 169
Oscar Fraustro $6,600 $7,300 $10,300 -0.154 1.206 0 0.751 0.548 0.31 0 0.402 547
Brian Gay $6,900 $8,600 $11,900 0.968 1.364 -1.149 0.321 0.321 0.287 0.41 0.335 359
Ollie Schniederjans $6,800 $8,400 $12,400 1.007 -1.81 -18.13 0.267 -0.068 0.071 0.991 0.315 380
Kelly Kraft $6,800 $7,300 $11,500 0.436 -0.088 6.87 0.115 0.129 0.187 0.755 0.297 425
Sam Ryder $8,700 $9,600 $14,800 0.989 0.037 33.368 0 0.201 0.906 0 0.277 145
Freddie Jacobson $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 0.768 0.821 -8.598 0.211 0.105 -0.311 1.044 0.262 460
Ryan Moore $8,600 $11,000 $14,800 1.664 1.91 16.176 0.311 0.639 -0.074 0.156 0.258 104
Brice Garnett $6,700 $8,400 $12,100 0.578 1.502 7.594 0.17 0.096 0.066 0.673 0.251 389
Gary Woodland $10,700 $11,800 $16,300 1.763 1.787 44.351 0.177 0.048 0.384 0.325 0.234 31
Aaron Wise $9,900 $10,200 $15,700 1.525 0.228 10.202 0.478 0.028 0.394 0 0.225 165
Cody Gribble $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 0.096 1.235 -2.629 0.406 0.106 0.38 0 0.223 572
Denny McCarthy $7,600 $8,900 $14,200 0.87 -0.003 19.349 0.405 0.208 0.273 0 0.221 234
Roberto Diaz $6,600 $7,000 $10,600 -0.241 -0.012 -1.373 0.124 -0.059 0.773 0 0.21 593
Shawn Stefani $6,700 $7,500 $12,200 0.765 1.349 5.593 0.444 0.033 0.282 0.055 0.204 359
Fabian Gomez $6,400 $7,700 $11,300 0.568 0.291 -2.856 0.126 0.166 0.248 0.272 0.203 503
Scott Piercy $8,000 $9,700 $14,800 1.054 1.103 27.678 -0.002 0.218 0.286 0.291 0.198 149
Si Woo Kim $9,200 $10,100 $15,200 0.86 2.245 30.851 0.547 -0.089 -0.007 0.321 0.193 213
Kevin Kisner $7,700 $9,700 $14,200 1.497 -0.569 0 0.139 -0.02 0.143 0.5 0.19 261
Keith Mitchell $7,600 $9,100 $13,400 1.157 -0.003 20.149 0.327 0.097 0.332 0 0.189 159
Charles Howell III $9,500 $10,700 $14,900 1.556 2.004 15.649 0.084 0.19 0.22 0.26 0.188 136
Patrick Rodgers $7,800 $9,300 $14,300 0.912 1.326 26.846 -0.001 0.012 0.129 0.612 0.188 210
Billy Horschel $10,200 $10,100 $15,700 1.459 0.459 16.678 0.284 0.527 0.256 -0.321 0.187 152
Scott Brown $6,800 $7,100 $11,800 0.729 1.452 1.274 0.319 0.046 0.278 0.062 0.176 421
C.T. Pan $8,100 $9,300 $14,500 1.155 0.528 21.678 0.345 -0.037 0.019 0.346 0.168 161
Peter Malnati $7,100 $7,900 $12,500 0.482 0.181 18.124 0.172 0.222 0.186 0.056 0.159 365
Kevin Streelman $7,100 $8,600 $12,600 1.251 1.874 11.124 -0.287 0.21 -0.032 0.712 0.151 217
Sangmoon Bae $6,600 $7,000 $11,800 0.323 -1.074 -4.726 0.197 -0.286 -0.184 0.849 0.144 581
Brian Harman $7,100 $10,100 $13,200 1.312 0.434 -3.663 0.175 0.053 0.028 0.297 0.138 344
Sam Saunders $7,000 $8,300 $12,200 0.659 -0.179 6.086 0.236 0.026 0.064 0.17 0.124 394
Max Homa $6,500 $7,000 $10,200 -0.9 0.428 0.868 -0.246 -0.011 0.135 0.604 0.121 590
Abraham Ancer $8,400 $10,000 $14,700 0.884 1.14 23.851 -0.041 0.454 0.032 0 0.111 233
Adam Schenk $7,200 $7,700 $13,000 0.589 0.92 25.09 0.321 0.136 -0.015 0 0.111 318
Chez Reavie $8,500 $9,700 $14,500 1.486 1.337 30.003 0.141 0.035 -0.009 0.271 0.109 114
Harold Varner III $7,300 $9,500 $13,300 0.942 0.561 16.624 0.036 0.31 0.475 -0.444 0.094 253
Pat Perez $7,700 $9,500 $14,500 1.537 1.645 14.678 0.134 -0.051 0.1 0.192 0.094 162
Zach Johnson $9,300 $10,700 $15,000 1.865 1.227 0 -0.212 0.29 0.128 0.163 0.092 237
Brian Stuard $6,900 $7,400 $11,800 0.645 1.64 5.017 0.01 -0.147 0.073 0.417 0.088 423
Sebastian Munoz $6,600 $7,200 $11,000 0.407 0 5.849 0 0.353 0 0 0.088 474
Ryan Blaum $6,700 $8,200 $12,000 0.816 0.459 8.846 0.243 0.289 0.031 -0.23 0.083 347
Richy Werenski $6,400 $8,800 $11,800 0.616 0.765 16.846 -0.229 0.444 0.194 -0.079 0.083 349
Joel Dahmen $6,800 $9,200 $12,000 0.979 1.227 20.176 0.223 -0.024 0.064 0 0.066 218
Joaquin Niemann $8,800 $11,200 $14,800 1.702 0 16.776 0 0.244 0 0 0.061 125
Chris Kirk $7,500 $9,600 $13,500 1.264 1.78 -0.373 0.202 0.149 -0.044 -0.065 0.06 337
Alex Prugh $6,300 $7,300 $11,400 0.385 -0.169 14.346 0.074 -0.027 0.192 0 0.06 437
Mackenzie Hughes $6,400 $8,000 $11,400 0.817 -0.221 8.271 -0.182 0.15 0.256 0.001 0.056 358
J.T. Poston $6,500 $8,400 $11,800 0.817 1.528 6.09 0.232 0.145 -0.217 0.032 0.048 370
Ryan Armour $7,100 $7,800 $12,600 0.927 0.207 12.968 0.014 0.15 -0.042 0.034 0.039 295
Kevin Chappell $7,500 $10,400 $14,100 1.49 -0.619 20.149 0.299 0.221 -0.454 0.052 0.03 152
Grayson Murray $6,400 $7,700 $11,400 0.65 0 -3.625 0.047 0.306 -0.244 0 0.027 516
Jason Dufner $6,900 $8,800 $11,800 1.362 0.082 1.422 0.155 -0.142 -0.265 0.328 0.019 294
Roger Sloan $6,300 $7,000 $10,500 -0.665 0.071 -5.632 0 0.223 -0.159 0 0.016 668
Jhonattan Vegas $7,000 $8,600 $12,200 0.972 0.597 11.624 -0.172 0.118 0.205 -0.088 0.016 287
Nick Taylor $6,700 $8,000 $12,200 0.744 0.73 17.846 0.025 0.427 -0.066 -0.34 0.012 325
Robert Streb $7,000 $8,000 $12,500 0.81 0.357 18.349 -0.157 -0.052 0.119 0.135 0.011 305
Jamie Lovemark $7,300 $9,200 $13,600 1.342 0.345 10.976 0.181 -0.317 0.144 0.029 0.009 235
Andrew Landry $6,800 $8,100 $12,000 0.705 0.212 0.325 -0.473 0.902 -0.402 0 0.007 465
D.A. Points $6,300 $7,200 $10,700 -0.138 -0.542 0 -0.192 0.036 0.071 0.103 0.005 600
Sungjae Im $7,800 $8,700 $14,200 0.818 0 29.432 0 0 0 0 0 267
Cameron Champ $9,100 $9,400 $15,500 0.552 -1.296 37.346 0 0 0 0 0 336
Sam Burns $7,400 $8,500 $13,700 0.955 0 3.093 0 0 0 0 0 370
Anders Albertson $7,200 $8,000 $13,400 0.556 0 17.849 0 0 0 0 0 379
Cameron Davis $7,400 $8,200 $13,800 0.509 1.235 17.624 0 0 0 0 0 398
Seth Reeves $6,500 $7,600 $11,600 0.633 0 7.346 0 0 0 0 0 423
Curtis Luck $6,900 $7,800 $11,700 0.617 0 4.093 0 0 0 0 0 456
Adam Svensson $6,400 $7,100 $11,000 0.397 0 11.09 0 0 0 0 0 461
Chase Wright $6,300 $7,000 $11,200 0.538 0 5.368 0 0 0 0 0 473
Norman Xiong $6,300 $7,500 $11,300 0.218 0 8.562 0 0 0 0 0 498
Kevin Stadler $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 0.747 0.518 -7.731 0 0 0 0 0 519
Kramer Hickok $6,800 $7,500 $12,100 0.101 0 6.627 0 0 0 0 0 522
Kyounghoon Lee $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 0.133 0 3.401 0 0 0 0 0 549
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez $6,200 $7,100 $10,900 -0.251 -0.942 5.349 0 0 0 0 0 571
Sebastian Vazquez $6,400 $7,100 $10,500 0.09 -0.31 0 0 0 0 0 0 589
Adria Arnaus $7,300 $7,500 $13,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 592
Armando Favela $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 0 -0.296 0 0 0 0 0 0 592
Viktor Hovland $7,000 $7,200 $11,900 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 592
Martin Trainer $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 0.094 0 -1.132 0 0 0 0 0 608
Zachary Bauchou $6,100 $7,100 $10,200 -1.39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 625
John Chin $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 -0.156 0 -4.907 0 0 0 0 0 659
Shintaro Ban $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 -1.963 0 -3.054 0 0 0 0 0 668
Kyle Jones $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 -0.364 0 -6.934 0 0 0 0 0 674
Jim Herman $6,600 $7,000 $10,600 0.681 0.118 -2.075 -0.003 -0.032 0.005 0.029 0 527
Dominic Bozzelli $6,300 $7,500 $10,600 0.326 0.065 4.03 0.312 -0.072 -0.243 0 -0.001 551
Wesley Bryan $6,500 $7,300 $10,900 0.389 0.689 -28.629 0.171 -0.464 -0.216 0.484 -0.006 647
Rory Sabbatini $6,700 $7,600 $12,200 0.843 0.128 2.765 0.236 -0.234 0.001 -0.044 -0.01 438
Russell Henley $7,100 $9,700 $13,100 1.509 0 -0.726 -0.199 -0.06 0.297 -0.089 -0.013 345
Matt Jones $6,500 $7,400 $11,900 0.847 0.323 1.127 -0.313 -0.142 0.234 0.146 -0.019 447
Chris Stroud $6,400 $7,200 $11,400 0.608 0.423 -3.373 -0.102 -0.056 0 0.078 -0.02 567
John Huh $6,600 $7,600 $11,200 0.879 1.325 -8.629 -0.122 -0.293 0.042 0.286 -0.022 511
Josh Teater $6,500 $7,000 $10,200 0.215 -0.242 1.31 -0.356 -0.018 0.272 0 -0.025 590
Beau Hossler $9,400 $10,600 $15,000 1.36 0.92 24.678 0.065 -0.105 0.352 -0.442 -0.033 195
Scott Langley $6,100 $7,200 $10,200 0.439 -0.141 -1.407 0.058 -0.186 -0.225 0.2 -0.038 601
Ernie Els $6,300 $7,400 $10,600 0.319 -0.698 13.166 -0.26 0.166 -0.02 -0.042 -0.039 501
Bud Cauley $7,200 $9,400 $12,600 1.274 -0.068 16.527 -0.411 0.413 -0.166 -0.006 -0.042 248
Anirban Lahiri $7,000 $8,500 $12,100 0.978 1.607 -4.386 -0.383 0.185 0.159 -0.136 -0.044 466
Danny Lee $6,900 $9,100 $13,000 1.065 1.311 22.368 -0.047 0.152 0.142 -0.425 -0.045 239
Whee Kim $6,800 $7,700 $12,000 0.523 0.395 6.676 -0.327 0.348 -0.157 -0.069 -0.051 498
J.B. Holmes $8,900 $9,900 $14,500 1.558 0 35.474 -0.207 -0.21 -0.113 0.315 -0.053 148
Hudson Swafford $7,200 $8,300 $12,600 0.917 0.509 13.346 -0.264 0.019 0.002 0.003 -0.06 346
Stephan Jaeger $7,000 $7,600 $11,700 0.381 -1.296 10.093 -0.502 0.118 0.118 0 -0.066 517
Tom Hoge $6,800 $7,100 $11,600 0.659 0.219 -5.291 -0.14 -0.186 -0.357 0.393 -0.073 574
Steve Marino $6,600 $7,000 $10,500 0.161 0.501 1.446 -0.447 0.174 0.138 -0.171 -0.076 601
Alex Cejka $6,900 $7,400 $11,800 0.864 0.847 -1.235 -0.024 0.001 -0.106 -0.213 -0.086 491
Luke List $9,000 $10,000 $15,300 1.6 0.519 15.325 0.305 -0.355 -0.039 -0.287 -0.094 212
Tyler Duncan $6,100 $7,500 $10,300 0.515 0.458 -18.632 -0.286 0.175 -0.322 0 -0.108 639
Brandon Harkins $6,700 $7,900 $12,200 1.033 1.073 4.624 -0.317 -0.043 -0.076 0 -0.109 369
Jonas Blixt $6,200 $7,200 $10,600 0.507 -0.158 3.024 0.126 -0.157 -0.523 0.116 -0.11 555
Bill Haas $7,900 $9,300 $14,600 1.529 0.141 24.144 -0.212 -0.089 -0.108 -0.043 -0.113 187
Seamus Power $6,700 $7,600 $11,700 1.01 0.595 1.093 0.118 -0.006 -0.204 -0.376 -0.117 408
Emiliano Grillo $9,700 $11,500 $15,700 1.69 2.028 35.503 0.154 -0.385 -0.059 -0.232 -0.131 143
Martin Laird $7,400 $9,300 $13,600 1.325 0.475 25.846 -0.38 -0.035 -0.053 -0.056 -0.131 217
Rickie Fowler $11,500 $12,500 $18,200 2.525 2.766 14.702 -0.139 -0.004 -0.137 -0.312 -0.148 197
Jim Furyk $6,900 $8,200 $12,000 1.565 -0.498 -2.554 -0.208 -0.272 -0.014 -0.147 -0.16 368
Harris English $6,600 $7,500 $12,100 1.073 0.33 11.346 -0.143 -0.152 -0.41 0.052 -0.163 314
Graeme Mcdowell $7,200 $8,300 $13,000 1.109 1.75 3.753 0.107 -0.022 -0.244 -0.504 -0.166 372
James Hahn $6,500 $7,500 $11,900 1.016 -0.521 8.617 -0.129 -0.195 -0.048 -0.292 -0.166 346
Jordan Spieth $11,300 $12,300 $17,300 2.719 0 3.202 -0.248 -0.931 -0.147 0.627 -0.175 279
Tony Finau $11,000 $11,900 $17,000 2.076 0.251 43.749 -0.413 -0.051 -0.374 0.104 -0.184 135
Vaughn Taylor $6,500 $8,300 $11,700 0.981 0.681 8.788 -0.266 -0.09 -0.059 -0.322 -0.184 362
Sean O’Hair $6,300 $7,100 $11,600 0.926 -0.521 -7.575 -0.131 -0.102 -0.275 -0.299 -0.202 524
Carlos Ortiz $6,700 $7,300 $11,900 0.477 0.671 15.09 -0.225 -0.157 -0.157 -0.28 -0.205 489
Bronson Burgoon $6,900 $8,700 $13,000 0.972 0.273 16.112 -0.286 -0.041 -0.015 -0.526 -0.217 337
Sung Kang $6,400 $7,500 $11,300 0.747 -0.447 6.52 -0.485 -0.078 -0.206 -0.246 -0.254 462
Adam Hadwin $8,300 $10,200 $14,500 1.428 0.817 13.165 -0.237 -0.305 -0.005 -0.531 -0.27 282
Charley Hoffman $7,600 $9,800 $14,000 1.605 0.204 4.837 -0.139 -0.208 -0.155 -0.579 -0.27 302
Hunter Mahan $6,500 $7,800 $11,800 0.59 -0.721 5.59 -0.467 -0.121 -0.407 -0.211 -0.301 520
Matt Kuchar $8,200 $10,900 $14,300 2.127 0.462 9.72 0.105 -1.067 -0.653 0.051 -0.391 243

About the Author

  • Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

  • Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.

Comments

  • AZUribe

    Josh How come last week Fowler had 27 in Form and this week only 14.7 ???

    Also looking McCarthy, Malnati and Horschel have been playing well and are low in Form…

    Could you please check Form Column…

  • futureoffantasy

    @AZUribe said...

    Josh How come last week Fowler had 27 in Form and this week only 14.7 ???

    Also looking McCarthy, Malnati and Horschel have been playing well and are low in Form…

    Could you please check Form Column…

    Great Eye!

    I forgot to mention this in the column, but I made the move from Last 8 weeks to Last 6 Weeks for FORM. It’s something I’ve been eyeing for a while but Kevin Na showing up high in form last week was the final straw. He was still getting a lot of credit for his strong BMW showing even though he had been pretty awful in three of his four more recent starts. I wanted a better short-term view of form so it will be 6 weeks moving forward.

  • AZUribe

    I’m not sure I like it, I was pretty used to 8 weeks and some patterns and you do Know the last events how the player did but not 7 or 8 events ago…It really messed with my pattern I was pretty sure Fowler, McCarthy, Malnati and Horschel where going to be up there…any chance you have the Form # for these guys if it was 8 weeks?

  • futureoffantasy

    @AZUribe said...

    I’m not sure I like it, I was pretty used to 8 weeks and some patterns and you do Know the last events how the player did but not 7 or 8 events ago…It really messed with my pattern I was pretty sure Fowler, McCarthy, Malnati and Horschel where going to be up there…any chance you have the Form # for these guys if it was 8 weeks?

    Sorry about that sudden shakeup but it felt weird seeing particular golfers pop up in the simple ratings even though I was ignoring them entirely based on form. It should be a good change for the long term, though.

  • AZUribe

    Hope so thks

  • AZUribe

    I still don’t understand with the 6 week column how Patrick Rodgers (have not seen any good results from him) has 26 and McCarthy 19 (who’s won and good results) ??? Something is wrong I think…

  • futureoffantasy

    @AZUribe said...

    I still don’t understand with the 6 week column how Patrick Rodgers (have not seen any good results from him) has 26 and McCarthy 19 (who’s won and good results) ??? Something is wrong I think…

    Rodgers has two top 25s in PGA TOUR events over that time. Three rounds where he’s gained 2.5+ SG over the field.

    McCarthy’s win was on the Web (and also the week after the cutoff, 7 weeks ago) so that wasn’t included. He then lost nearly five strokes at the Safeway. Last two starts have been great with four rounds > 2.5 SG which is how he climbs back up. If it weren’t for the Safeway blunder, Denny would be right up near the top of the form pile.

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