Searching for a Specialist: OHL Classic

by Josh Culp (futureoffantasy) Last Updated 2016-11-10 14:28:25

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Welcome back for another specialist search as we head south of the border for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba.

Last week the elder statesman Rod Pampling took home the hardware. If you look at last week’s specialist charts, the only thing that stood out for him was his performance on bentgrass (+0.263 strokes over his baseline) but he was still a really off-the-wall winner.

Our specialist, Webb Simpson, hung around all week while ultimately landing in 31st place. Not a lineup killer but he actually lowers our top-30 rate for top specialists down to 44%. Let’s see if we can increase that by week’s end.

Looking at the OHL Classic, it’s not too different from last week’s Shriners. First, we will look at Short Course performance then hit on Easy Courses. After that we’ll look at who ups their game against weak competition and then finish with Easy-to-Hit Green data.

You may notice the green surface (Seashore Paspalum) is missing this week. I’ve included it in the past but after further review it’s still too small of a sample to include for the time being. I will provide a list of golfers that have gained the most strokes on Paspalum since 2014 at the bottom of the article for anyone looking for that.

Here we go…

Short Courses

The El Camaleon Golf Club is held at the Mayakoba. This is a vacation getaway spot, so they don’t want to waste precious land on a golf course. So, it makes sense the yardage only checks in around 7,000 yards.

Most of the time on shorter layouts we see bombers lose their length advantage, putting the shorter, scrappy golfers at an even playing field off the tee.

Looking at past results on courses under 7,100 yards we can see which golfers like it when the course is shriveled down.

The Top 10 Short Course Specialists are:

Si Woo Kim (2.16 sg:short vs. 1.241 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (1.566 sg:short vs. 0.714 sg:total)
Brian Gay (0.482 sg:short vs. -0.358 sg:total)
Matt Every (0.566 sg:short vs. -0.254 sg:total)
Fabian Gomez (1.263 sg:short vs. 0.471 sg:total)
Zac Blair (1.314 sg:short vs. 0.535 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.305 sg:short vs. 0.639 sg:total)
Shawn Stefani (1.469 sg:short vs. 0.827 sg:total)
Luke Donald (1.697 sg:short vs. 1.094 sg:total)
Brian Stuard (1.045 sg:short vs. 0.458 sg:total)

As you can see from the list above, most of these guys are not bombers. Patrick Rodgers kind of sticks out like a sore thumb as a bomber. This could be a case where it’s a slightly smaller sample size for him (32 rounds) and he’ll regress back to where most bombers belong on shorter courses.

Who has the biggest sample of success on short courses? Well Russell Knox is the only golfer in the field with 10 top 25s on short layouts since 2014. He’s played 21 events on short tracks during that time.

Next on that list of top 25s on short courses would be Jason Kokrak, Jerry Kelly, Charles Howell III, and Brian Stuard. They all have 8 or 9 top 25s since 2014. Stuard is the most notable since his baseline T25% hovers around 20 percent. That more than doubles when he takes on a short course.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 55

Easy Courses

Since the move to November this course has played about one stroke under-par, per round (field average). The climate this time of year just doesn’t allow for El Camaleon to defend itself properly. It will continue to be a pushover unless there are weeks of heavy winds, which isn’t in the forecast at the time.

The 10 Easy Course Specialists remaining:

Si Woo Kim (1.914 sg:easy vs. 1.241 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (0.381 sg:easy vs. -0.151 sg:total)
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano (0.606 sg:easy vs. 0.15 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (1.509 sg:easy vs. 1.066 sg:total)
Jason Bohn (1.211 sg:easy vs. 0.805 sg:total)
Webb Simpson (1.666 sg:easy vs. 1.277 sg:total)
Ryo Ishikawa (0.716 sg:easy vs. 0.328 sg:total)
Charles Howell III (1.475 sg:easy vs. 1.109 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (0.603 sg:easy vs. 0.245 sg:total)
Kevin Streelman (1.132 sg:easy vs. 0.805 sg:total)

Well, how about that Si Woo Kim? He’s headlining both of the early angles which is a great sign, to say the least.

If you want high sample size on Easy Courses, then Charles Howell III and Scott Piercy are your guys. CH3 has picked off top 25s in 16 of his last 33 starts on easy courses. Piercy has an even higher rate, finding the top 25 in 15-of-28 starts on easy layouts.

On the flip side, Kevin Tway, Zack Sucher, and Angel Cabrera are a combined 0-for-42 in terms of collecting top 25s on easy courses since 2014. I would avoid them, since top-25 finishing bonuses are a huge boost on DraftKings.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 43

Weak Field Events

Looking at the OWGR strength of field rating, we see this week at 152. For this angle, we look at all events with an SoF rating of 250 or lower so this qualifies as WEAK.

Some golfers can’t handle the bright lights and deep fields so they do all their holiday shopping against the little guys.

The Top 10 Weak Field specialists:

Webb Simpson (2.069 sg:weak vs. 1.277 sg:total)
Brian Gay (0.227 sg:weak vs. -0.358 sg:total)
Scott Brown (1.212 sg:weak vs. 0.629 sg:total)
Jason Bohn (1.356 sg:weak vs. 0.805 sg:total)
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano (0.62 sg:weak vs. 0.15 sg:total)
Ryo Ishikawa (0.752 sg:weak vs. 0.328 sg:total)
Carl Pettersson (0.636 sg:weak vs. 0.233 sg:total)
J.J. Henry (0.358 sg:weak vs. -0.033 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (0.206 sg:weak vs. -0.151 sg:total)
Keegan Bradley (1.764 sg:weak vs. 1.439 sg:total)

We don’t find Si Woo Kim here again but we do get repeat appearances from Webb Simpson, Brian Gay, Jason Bohn, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, Ryo Ishikawa, and Peter Malnati.

Also on the list is Scott Brown who may be the King of Weak Fields. Over his last 32 tournaments against weak fields, he’s racked up 14 top 25s (44%). That is double his baseline top-25 rate over the same stretch of time.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 24

Easy-to-Hit Greens

We already talked about this course being easy, but this angle looks at the reason why they are easy.

Since the move to November, the field has average 68% greens in regulation here. That ranks in the top 10 in terms of courses played on the PGA TOUR annually.

The 10 Easy GIR Specialists remaining:

Scott Piercy (1.653 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.066 sg:total)
Webb Simpson (1.772 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.277 sg:total)
Fabian Gomez (0.939 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.471 sg:total)
Jason Bohn (1.261 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.805 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (0.65 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.245 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (0.23 sg:easy GIR vs. -0.151 sg:total)
Brian Gay (-0.067 sg:easy GIR vs. -0.358 sg:total)
Greg Chalmers (0.067 sg:easy GIR vs. -0.199 sg:total)
Andres Gonzales (0.291 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.04 sg:total)
Mark Wilson (0.27 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.03 sg:total)

Many of the names above have won or played very well consistently on coastal tracks which may not be a coincidence. It would make sense for coastal tracks to make their greens easier to hit given the likelihood that wind comes and wrecks havoc. They don’t want their resort guests to rage quit and ruin their trip.

So when the wind doesn’t arrive, these ball-strikers head into town and just pepper the flagsticks at will. With this week being another coastal track with relatively little wind in the forecast, I would expect this group to excel.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 21

Baseline Performance

We got a large list still remaining but we can still trim it down with some filters. The first one will be long-term baseline. If a golfer is losing strokes to the field since 2014, we don’t want to get involved and trust them.

J.J. Henry
Peter Malnati
Greg Chalmers
Brian Gay

You can call them GPPs if you want, but really they are just long shots with a relatively good course fit.

Next we’ll do the same but look at just the last 10 weeks of stroke-play events. Golfers in poor form are Jason Bohn and Spencer Levin. I would consider both to be stellar GPP plays, but they cannot be trusted in cash due to recent play.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 15

The Specialists

Webb Simpson
Scott Piercy
Fabian Gomez
Kyle Stanley
Andres Gonzales
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
Shawn Stefani
Scott Brown
Ryo Ishikawa
Carl Pettersson
Brian Harman
Keegan Bradley
Mark Wilson
Tony Finau
Alex Cejka

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Our specialist this week is Webb Simpson.

A repeat specialist! Simpson was our chosen one last week and he lines up great again this week. He loves to face off against weak competition on easy courses and happens to like his courses short, as well. Fire him back up!

We have quite a large list this week, so don’t be afraid to trim this list down even further. One example would be to sort these specialists by Baseline SG:Total… that would give you Keegan Bradley, Webb Simson, Tony Finau, Scott Piercy, and Brian Harman as the top five.

If you value current form first and foremost then Keegan Bradley, Kyle Stanley, Shawn Stefani, and Alex Cejka would be the top five.

Another filter would be to narrow down this list to only golfers gaining 0.75 strokes per round long term as well as recently. That list would include Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Scott Piercy, Brian Harman, Shawn Stefani, and Alex Cejka.

The possibilities are endless and it’s one of the main reasons I include the specialist table at the bottom. It allows you to mix and match angles as you see fit.

The Anti-Specialists

If we look for the exact opposite of our specialists, we can find some potential fades. These are golfers that show negative numbers in all five angles this week.

K.J. Choi
Martin Flores
Kyle Reifers
Billy Horschel
Carlos Ortiz
Chez Reavie
Michael Thompson
Billy Hurley III
Jon Curran

The most notable name on the list is Billy Horschel. He is negative in all four angles we looked at, averaging out to 0.275 strokes per round as his expected decline over his baseline. Aggregating his performances at all these angles since 2014, his expected top-25 rate is still 29%, but that is more than 10% lower than his baseline.

Billy Ho also put some new clubs in his bag before the last event. To me that means this stretch of golf is not that important and he’s just trying to getting some tournament reps over the Fall before the real events come around in 2017. Personally I am fading him entirely, but I could understand if you don’t want to get on board with that.

Seashore Paspalum

Like I mentioned earlier, the sample sizes just aren’t there for most of the field in regards to Paspalum greens. Instead, here is a list of golfer who have gained the most strokes on Paspalum greens since 2014 (Euro Tour included):

Emiliano Grillo
Chris Stroud
Anirban Lahiri
Russell Knox
Charles Howell III
Jason Bohn
Tony Finau
Alex Cejka
Keegan Bradley

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),

Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks (including European Tour) and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained with positive numbers being a good thing.

Golfer	DK	SG:Total	Form	Easy GIR	Short	Easy Course	Weak Field	Specialist Rating
Webb Simpson	$8,000	1.277	0.263	0.495	0.478	0.389	0.793	0.539
Si Woo Kim	$8,900	1.241	1.486	0.371	0.919	0.673	-0.102	0.465
Brian Gay	$5,700	-0.358	-0.279	0.291	0.84	0.144	0.585	0.465
Jason Bohn	$7,600	0.805	-0.09	0.456	0.433	0.406	0.551	0.462
Peter Malnati	$5,800	-0.151	-0.032	0.381	0.571	0.532	0.357	0.46
Scott Piercy	$9,800	1.066	1.571	0.588	0.494	0.443	0.154	0.42
Fabian Gomez	$6,600	0.471	1.421	0.468	0.792	0.142	0.244	0.411
Michael Kim	$6,800	0.494	1.978	0.368	0	0.207	0.774	0.337
Harold Varner III	$7,100	0.799	1.335	0.161	0	0.355	0.822	0.334
Kyle Stanley	$7,200	0.245	2.353	0.406	0.32	0.358	0.24	0.331
Johnson Wagner	$8,400	0.558	1.467	0.709	-0.255	0.576	0.097	0.282
Andres Gonzales	$6,300	0.04	0.526	0.251	0.25	0.285	0.317	0.276
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	$5,900	0.15	0.786	0.059	0.11	0.456	0.47	0.274
Shawn Stefani	$7,300	0.827	1.655	0.207	0.642	0.142	0.074	0.266
Scott Brown	$6,700	0.629	0.456	0.214	0.039	0.215	0.583	0.263
J.J. Henry	$6,300	-0.033	-0.074	0.056	0.291	0.288	0.391	0.256
Cameron Smith	$8,100	0.639	2.053	0.391	0.666	-0.049	0.01	0.254
Greg Chalmers	$6,100	-0.199	-0.174	0.266	0.202	0.295	0.232	0.249
Boo Weekley	$6,400	0.462	-0.383	0.137	0.299	-0.02	0.57	0.247
Ryo Ishikawa	$7,400	0.328	1.633	0.094	0.071	0.388	0.425	0.244
Brian Stuard	$6,500	0.458	0.054	0.076	0.587	0.322	-0.066	0.23
Carl Pettersson	$5,800	0.233	0.059	0.071	0.084	0.326	0.403	0.221
Spencer Levin	$6,000	0.52	-0.149	0.231	0.422	0.178	0.051	0.22
Ben Martin	$7,000	0.713	-1.329	0.493	-0.139	0.212	0.253	0.205
Charles Howell III	$7,500	1.109	1.069	0.244	0.265	0.366	-0.083	0.198
Anirban Lahiri	$9,000	0.734	2.648	0.051	0	0.733	0	0.196
Zac Blair	$6,200	0.535	-0.058	-0.041	0.779	0.03	0.004	0.193
Patrick Rodgers	$7,200	0.714	0.516	0.179	0.851	-0.014	-0.272	0.186
Brian Harman	$7,000	0.922	1.514	0.132	0.306	0.239	0.064	0.185
Graham DeLaet	$7,300	1.083	0.986	0.153	0.399	-0.116	0.29	0.181
Ken Duke	$5,900	-0.007	-0.093	0.054	0.42	-0.117	0.354	0.178
Keegan Bradley	$10,000	1.439	2.593	0.038	0.035	0.278	0.325	0.169
Scott Stallings	$6,200	0.156	-1.883	0.075	0.302	-0.154	0.445	0.167
Pat Perez	$7,100	0.805	2.023	0.297	0.449	0.06	-0.142	0.166
Mark Wilson	$6,100	0.03	1.204	0.24	0.292	0.097	0.018	0.162
Steven Bowditch	$5,700	-0.241	-4.085	-0.194	0.291	-0.062	0.574	0.152
Rory Sabbatini	$5,800	0.394	-0.046	0.186	0.478	0.05	-0.114	0.15
Kevin Tway	$6,100	-0.467	0.226	0.426	0	0.313	-0.157	0.146
Tony Finau	$9,400	1.244	0.801	0.005	0.26	0.023	0.259	0.137
Alex Cejka	$7,300	0.781	1.648	0.069	0.266	0.13	0.065	0.133
Zack Sucher	$6,100	-0.856	0.184	0.226	0	0.173	0.12	0.13
Robert Garrigus	$7,000	0.306	0.574	0.273	-0.108	0.343	0.008	0.129
Hudson Swafford	$7,500	0.641	0.946	0.152	0.263	0.189	-0.129	0.119
Kevin Streelman	$8,200	0.805	0.82	-0.059	0.118	0.328	0.045	0.108
Brett Stegmaier	$6,200	0.417	-0.366	-0.158	0	0.269	0.303	0.104
Jim Herman	$6,400	0.51	1.193	0.115	0.186	0.145	-0.04	0.102
Charley Hoffman	$6,900	1.206	-1.261	-0.123	0.008	0.311	0.183	0.095
Emiliano Grillo	$11,200	1.572	2.028	0.255	0	0.081	0	0.084
John Huh	$7,600	0.519	1.272	0.274	-0.067	0.128	-0.016	0.08
Marc Leishman	$8,500	1.401	1.683	0.227	0.116	0.055	-0.126	0.068
Jerry Kelly	$7,700	0.994	0.313	0.287	0.185	-0.051	-0.147	0.068
Will MacKenzie	$6,900	0.371	0.478	-0.102	0.055	-0.034	0.343	0.065
Jhonattan Vegas	$7,200	0.584	0.995	0.384	-0.215	0.14	-0.072	0.059
Matt Every	$5,700	-0.254	-3.897	-0.468	0.82	-0.395	0.277	0.059
Seung-Yul Noh	$6,800	0.67	1.053	0.01	0.157	0.092	-0.089	0.043
Morgan Hoffmann	$6,100	0.51	-0.814	0.201	-0.045	0.249	-0.261	0.036
Mark Hubbard	$5,700	0.202	-1.755	0.052	0.115	-0.125	0.1	0.035
Chris Kirk	$9,600	1.258	2.127	-0.469	0.278	-0.484	0.788	0.028
Cameron Tringale	$6,100	0.946	-0.266	0.215	-0.644	0.446	0.09	0.027
Chris Stroud	$6,500	0.655	-0.09	0.052	0.001	-0.026	0.066	0.023
Vaughn Taylor	$6,300	0.896	1.358	0.105	0	0.081	-0.104	0.021
Luke Donald	$7,500	1.094	0.361	-0.105	0.604	-0.422	0	0.019
Luke List	$7,800	1.126	2.058	-0.159	0	0.259	-0.024	0.019
Derek Fathauer	$8,300	0.498	1.942	0.071	-0.016	0.038	-0.05	0.01
Jon Rahm	$10,700	2.002	2.353	0.018	0	0	0	0.005
Tyrone Van Aswegen	$5,900	0.216	0.502	0.159	0.192	-0.196	-0.144	0.003
Camilo Villegas	$6,500	0.542	1.204	-0.208	-0.163	0.089	0.288	0.001
Ian Poulter	$7,900	1.019	0.89	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Blaum	$6,900	1.508	1.803	0	0	0	0	0
Cody Gribble	$7,400	1.496	2.303	0	0	0	0	0
Bryson DeChambeau	$6,700	1.038	0.193	0	0	0	0	0
Wesley Bryan	$7,100	0.982	0.978	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Brehm	$6,500	0.97	0.97	0	0	0	0	0
Seamus Power	$6,000	0.855	0.686	0	0	0	0	0
Aaron Wise	$6,300	0.699	0.386	0	0	0	0	0
Grayson Murray	$7,400	0.559	0.559	0	0	0	0	0
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,000	0.48	1.137	0	0	0	0	0
Trey Mullinax	$6,800	0.468	1.053	0	0	0	0	0
Cheng Tsung Pan	$6,000	0.446	0.261	0	0	0	0	0
J.T. Poston	$6,400	0.225	0.226	0	0	0	0	0
Dominic Bozzelli	$6,000	0.225	0.226	0	0	0	0	0
Steven Alker	$5,900	0.135	0.626	0	0	0	0	0
Nicholas Lindheim	$5,800	0.038	-0.109	0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Davis	$6,000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Garrick	$5,700	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.J. Spaun	$6,300	-0.32	-0.189	0	0	0	0	0
Rodolfo Cazaubon	$5,700	-0.338	0	0	0	0	0	0
Richy Werenski	$5,900	-0.438	-0.174	0	0	0	0	0
Roberto Diaz	$5,900	-1.152	0	0	0	0	0	0
Julian Etulain	$5,700	-1.166	-0.566	0	0	0	0	0
Matthew NeSmith	$6,000	-1.49	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rick Lamb	$5,900	-1.7	-1.7	0	0	0	0	0
Bob Estes	$5,700	-2.675	-1.248	0	0	0	0	0
Ollie Schniederjans	$6,000	0.356	-3.335	0.419	0	-0.441	0	-0.006
John Peterson	$6,600	0.177	-0.422	-0.146	0.373	-0.458	0.188	-0.011
Russell Knox	$11,800	1.476	2.336	-0.002	0.149	0.055	-0.275	-0.018
Gary Woodland	$8,600	1.402	1.236	-0.025	0.308	-0.017	-0.347	-0.02
Stewart Cink	$6,700	0.834	1.325	-0.015	0.038	0.094	-0.21	-0.023
Miguel Angel Carballo	$5,700	-0.396	0.684	-0.03	0.265	-0.177	-0.162	-0.026
Ben Crane	$6,600	0.385	0.617	-0.203	-0.137	0.046	0.155	-0.035
Harris English	$9,500	1.333	1.671	-0.189	0.331	-0.096	-0.231	-0.046
Danny Lee	$6,700	0.941	0.15	-0.091	-0.303	0.047	0.144	-0.051
Nick Taylor	$5,800	0.292	0.286	-0.018	-0.504	-0.136	0.417	-0.06
Martin Laird	$8,700	0.814	1.789	0.088	-0.079	-0.17	-0.088	-0.062
David Hearn	$6,200	0.883	0.679	0.012	-0.464	0.025	0.168	-0.065
Adam Hadwin	$6,900	0.878	1.541	0.052	-0.55	0.37	-0.204	-0.083
Jamie Lovemark	$7,000	0.765	0.813	0.27	-0.314	0.047	-0.34	-0.084
Jon Curran	$6,400	0.612	0.202	-0.127	-0.057	-0.164	-0.003	-0.088
Chad Campbell	$6,200	0.833	0.835	-0.167	-0.156	-0.071	0.038	-0.089
Jim Furyk	$10,200	2.198	0.808	-0.387	0	0	0	-0.097
Ricky Barnes	$6,100	0.438	0.212	-0.406	-0.158	0.008	0.143	-0.103
Graeme McDowell	$9,100	1.208	0.89	-0.202	0	-0.591	0.32	-0.118
Jonas Blixt	$6,600	0.534	0.84	-0.345	-0.377	0.117	0.081	-0.131
Jason Kokrak	$7,900	1.058	1.145	-0.378	0.35	-0.292	-0.231	-0.138
Billy Hurley III	$6,800	0.653	1.568	-0.062	-0.189	-0.404	-0.029	-0.171
Steve Marino	$6,000	0.137	-0.529	-0.317	-0.113	-0.384	0.025	-0.197
Michael Thompson	$6,200	0.344	-0.085	-0.274	-0.297	-0.08	-0.198	-0.213
Chez Reavie	$6,400	0.826	0.87	-0.145	-0.107	-0.325	-0.43	-0.252
Sung Kang	$6,600	0.776	0.802	-0.419	0	-0.159	-0.497	-0.269
Carlos Ortiz	$5,800	0.242	0	-0.325	-0.368	-0.114	-0.291	-0.275
Billy Horschel	$9,300	1.304	0.862	-0.214	-0.475	-0.363	-0.046	-0.275
Kyle Reifers	$6,200	0.762	0.801	-0.057	-0.681	-0.077	-0.324	-0.285
Martin Flores	$6,100	0.557	0.286	-0.225	-0.777	-0.163	-0.289	-0.364
K.J. Choi	$6,300	0.675	-2.44	-0.339	-0.269	-0.39	-0.624	-0.406
Bud Cauley	$6,500	0.84	0.487	0	-1.245	0.369	-0.748	-0.406
Ernie Els	$5,900	0.523	-0.885	-0.223	-0.596	-0.836	0.012	-0.411
Hunter Mahan	$5,800	0.744	-2.585	-0.529	0	-0.639	-0.574	-0.435
Angel Cabrera	$5,800	0.251	0.204	-0.876	0	-0.905	-0.365	-0.537