Searching for a Specialist: Open Championship

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Welcome back to another edition of the specialist search.

Last week we did a rare Euro edition of the specialist search. G-Mac was the specialist of the week and got the job done with a T10 finish. Benjamin Hebert was a bargain-bin specialists that made it through the cut but faded big time over the weekend. Lastly, Lowry under-performed immensely as the third and final specialist.

This week we will look at Hard Courses, Links Courses, and finish up with performance against Strong Fields.

Here we go…

Hard Courses

This week’s course is Royal Troon Golf Club. Most courses on the Open Championship rota are known for being on the easier side (relative to the other three majors). Troon doesn’t fit that bill. Each of the past five editions, the field average has been at least two strokes over par.

The tougher the track, the creamier the crop. Hard courses usually bring out the golfers that are playing the best golf that week, there is no faking around these types of tracks.

The Top 10 Hard Course Specialists are:

Daniel Summerhays (1.453 sg:hard vs. 0.624 sg:total)
William McGirt (1.235 sg:hard vs. 0.492 sg:total)
Seung-yul Noh (0.797 sg:hard vs. 0.118 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (2.305 sg:hard vs. 1.739 sg:total)
David Lingmerth (0.592 sg:hard vs. 0.136 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (2.271 sg:hard vs. 1.82 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (1.142 sg:hard vs. 0.704 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.182 sg:hard vs. 0.762 sg:total)
James Hahn (0.389 sg:hard vs. -0.016 sg:total)
Matt Jones (0.663 sg:hard vs. 0.26 sg:total)

Spieth and DJ are the two names that stick out here since their baseline strokes gained are both over 1.70 per round and they still exceed that when the course gets tougher.

We’ve seen Oosthuizen pop up in a lot of majors. Is it because he likes tough courses or is it because he has a different mindset during these weeks? We can debate it all we want, but the fact remains he does well in these difficult, strong field events.

One name that narrowly missed the list (due to one round too few in terms of sample size) is Marc Warren. He would have been a GPP-only specialist due to his lack of current form, but he’s definitely still worth a look as a Scot playing on home soil.

On the flip side I will definitely be avoiding Kiradech Aphibarnrat. Over his last eight starts on tough tracks, he’s lost 42.5 strokes to the field! He does have one top 25, but that downside far outweighs the good this week.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 37

Links Golf

Next on the list is performance on links-style courses. This style of golf is exposed to the elements and often requires different strategies off the tee and approaching the green.

For this week I’ve decided to combine PGA TOUR and Euro Tour performance on links-style layouts. Since this is one of the most important aspects this week, I wanted to make sure we had a nice sample size to look at.

The Top 10 Links Specialists remaining:

Darren Clarke (-0.814 sg:links vs. -2.058 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (1.892 sg:links vs. 0.704 sg:total)
Branden Grace (1.701 sg:links vs. 0.705 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (2.703 sg:links vs. 1.739 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (1.863 sg:links vs. 1.147 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (2.453 sg:links vs. 1.82 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (1.656 sg:links vs. 1.113 sg:total)
Matt Jones (0.797 sg:links vs. 0.26 sg:total)
Shane Lowry (1.432 sg:links vs. 0.898 sg:total)
Luke Donald (0.918 sg:links vs. 0.435 sg:total)


A lot of these golfers have a reputation of playing well on links courses, so it’s good to see the numbers support the claim.

We can ignore Darren Clarke since his baseline is SO LOW, but links golf is really the only time we’d expect him to show any sign of form these days.

Who has the most top 10s on links courses since the start of 2014? That would be Brooks Koepka with six, but he withdrew due to injury. Next in line is Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, and Dustin Johnson who all sport five top 10s in eight starts on links layouts. Turns out the high ball flight of DJ and Day can still work out on this type of course.

Going back to a golfer we already eliminated and talked about, Marc Warren has nine top 50s in his last 11 starts on links courses. If you need a cheap cut made, I think Warren might be your man.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 13

Strong Field Events

The last angle is really tough to earn your way into. We are looking at performance against OWGR field strength events higher than 400.

Elite golfers can generally feast on lesser-field events, so that makes their task of over-performing against tough fields that much harder. That’s what makes this angle so hard to achieve, but it’s really a good sign when you find a golfer in the positive numbers here (assuming they also have a positive baseline SG:Total).

We can say goodbye to 10 golfers at this stage since their strong field performance is lower than their baseline:

Branden Grace
Matt Jones
Shane Lowry
Paul Casey
J.B. Holmes
Darren Clarke
Phil Mickelson
Luke Donald
Jordan Spieth
Jimmy Walker


There is nothing to fade here. We see Spieth pretty low on this list, but we know how well he’s done in the majors over the past few seasons. So despite his under-performance in WGCs, THE PLAYERS, etc. he always finds a way to peak for majors.

Branden Grace was very close to being a strong field specialists. Looking recently, he’s finished top 20 in four of the past five majors, so he will become a strong field specialist if he keeps performing at that level.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 3

The Specialists

Louis Oosthuizen
Rickie Fowler
Dustin Johnson

Our specialist this week is Louis Oosthuizen.

Louis AKA Shrek is a hard nut to crack. I never thought I’d see the day when he’d become a specialist, because his performance always seems to random in terms of what week he decides to pop. Now we know what it takes, a tough links-style against a strong field.

louis-oosthuizen-300x200

Fowler is a funny case because gamers that are new to DFS golf will talk about just how bad he’s been in majors. The veterans know this is just a short-term slump that he’s sure to break out of. Over his last 41 starts against strong fields, he’s posted top 10s in 18 of them. That’s 44 percent! That’s an amazing top-10 rate against weak fields, so to do it against the best fields in the world is really special. Only Rory, DJ, and Day have better top-10 rates against strong fields since the start of 2014.

Lastly we have DJ which is scary to see him as a specialist, considering the current form he is in. On paper he looks like another home run play. He’s coming off back-to-back wins and is now a specialist, nothing can go wrong, right?

The Anti-Specialists

The golfers below are negative in all three angles this week. Basically the exact opposite of our specialists and we should try to avoid them this week or limit our exposure at the very least.

Ryan Palmer

It’s a one-man show this week. Palmer mainly struggles on tough courses, but he’s also worse on links courses and play down against stronger fields. You might see him crack the cut line this week, but I wouldn’t expect anything inside the top 25.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle. The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2013-14), Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks (including European Tour) and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained.

Golfer DK SG:Total Form Hard Course Links Strong Field Specialist Rating
Tyrrell Hatton $6,600 -0.296 1.294 0 1.853 0 0.618
Louis Oosthuizen $9,000 0.704 0.562 0.438 1.188 0.212 0.613
Darren Clarke $5,400 -2.058 -0.856 0.348 1.243 -0.243 0.45
Matteo Manassero $6,200 -0.188 0.931 0 1.481 -0.155 0.442
Rickie Fowler $9,900 1.147 0.506 0.292 0.716 0.224 0.41
Andy Sullivan $7,200 0.024 0.769 0 1.181 0.036 0.405
Chris Wood $7,600 0.232 1.148 0 1.162 0 0.387
Branden Grace $9,700 0.705 1.242 0.26 0.996 -0.1 0.385
Jordan Spieth $11,700 1.739 1.393 0.566 0.964 -0.399 0.377
David Howell $6,000 -0.205 -0.103 0 1.11 0 0.37
Dustin Johnson $12,000 1.82 2.454 0.451 0.633 0.006 0.363
Tommy Fleetwood $6,200 -0.216 -0.488 0 1.063 0 0.354
Paul Lawrie $6,200 -0.693 -0.317 0 0.928 0 0.309
Padraig Harrington $6,800 -0.5 -0.71 -0.46 1.213 0.136 0.296
Daniel Summerhays $5,800 0.624 1.294 0.829 0 0.027 0.285
Matt Jones $6,000 0.26 -0.098 0.404 0.538 -0.111 0.277
David Lingmerth $6,700 0.136 1.113 0.456 0 0.312 0.256
Marc Warren $6,100 0.272 -0.128 0 0.737 0.029 0.255
Thongchai Jaidee $7,000 -0.662 0.78 -0.293 1.075 -0.03 0.251
Miguel Angel Jimenez $5,900 -0.738 -0.294 0 0.708 0 0.236
Thorbjorn Olesen $6,900 -0.043 0.263 0 0 0.682 0.227
Shane Lowry $8,800 0.898 0.969 0.242 0.534 -0.155 0.207
Justin Rose $9,400 1.554 0.67 -0.037 0.762 -0.115 0.203
Soren Kjeldsen $6,300 0.266 0.268 0 0.56 0 0.187
Patrick Reed $7,900 0.772 0.323 -0.043 0.876 -0.284 0.183
Seung-Yul Noh $5,900 0.118 0.203 0.68 0 -0.177 0.168
Luke Donald $6,800 0.435 -0.231 0.328 0.483 -0.357 0.151
Brandt Snedeker $7,700 0.747 -0.05 -0.176 0.856 -0.239 0.147
Steve Stricker $6,400 0.79 1.302 0.346 0 0.093 0.146
George Coetzee $6,100 -0.05 -0.354 0 0.552 -0.156 0.132
James Morrison $5,500 0.041 0.507 0 0.386 0 0.129
James Hahn $5,800 -0.016 0.463 0.405 0 -0.039 0.122
Phil Mickelson $8,600 1.113 1.222 0.165 0.543 -0.348 0.12
Brendan Steele $6,100 0.762 1.096 0.42 0 -0.067 0.118
Graeme McDowell $7,500 0.762 0.749 -0.44 0.717 0.074 0.117
Martin Kaymer $8,400 0.49 0.983 -0.279 0.539 0.04 0.1
Joost Luiten $6,500 -0.023 0.642 -0.003 0.298 0.002 0.099
Adam Scott $10,600 1.456 1.172 0.156 0 0.134 0.097
Ernie Els $7,300 -0.005 -0.03 -0.41 0.458 0.238 0.095
Rory McIlroy $11,900 2.122 1.854 -0.024 0.35 -0.069 0.085
William McGirt $6,200 0.492 1.009 0.742 0 -0.502 0.08
Bernd Wiesberger $6,500 0.354 0.664 -0.236 0.518 -0.073 0.07
Jason Day $12,300 1.967 2.172 -0.3 0.474 0.006 0.06
Russell Knox $7,600 0.783 0.287 0.214 0 -0.04 0.058
Charl Schwartzel $7,800 0.892 1.149 0.238 0 -0.102 0.045
Henrik Stenson $9,500 1.451 1.084 0.114 0 -0.008 0.035
Bubba Watson $8,000 1.499 0.297 0.23 0 -0.125 0.035
Paul Casey $7,900 0.996 0.352 0.193 0.043 -0.157 0.026
J.B. Holmes $6,500 0.696 0.27 0.107 0.177 -0.207 0.025
Billy Horschel $6,800 0.651 1.082 0.164 0 -0.101 0.021
Victor Dubuisson $6,500 0.193 -0.827 -0.397 0.614 -0.179 0.013
Matt Kuchar $7,800 1.377 1.847 0.169 0 -0.138 0.01
Justin Leonard $5,300 -0.138 0.086 0.132 0 -0.127 0.002
Patton Kizzire $5,400 0.411 -0.867 0 0 0 0
Harold Varner III $6,000 0.289 0.956 0 0 0 0
Ben Curtis $5,600 -0.983 0 0 0 0 0
Matthew Southgate $5,500 -4.452 0.434 0 0 0 0
Sandy Lyle $5,200 -2.9 -1.006 0 0 0 0
Nick Cullen $5,600 -2.852 0.16 0 0 0 0
Satoshi Kodaira $5,700 -2.145 0 0 0 0 0
Todd Hamilton $5,600 -2.121 0 0 0 0 0
Kristoffer Broberg $5,900 -1.918 -0.671 0 0 0 0
Yuta Ikeda $5,900 -1.918 -1.179 0 0 0 0
Marco Dawson $5,200 -1.461 0 0 0 0 0
John Daly $5,200 -1.315 0 0 0 0 0
David Duval $5,200 -1.306 0 0 0 0 0
Richard Sterne $5,900 -1.271 0.464 0 0 0 0
Nathan Holman $5,400 -1.232 -0.572 0 0 0 0
Yusaku Miyazato $5,700 -1.122 1.19 0 0 0 0
Alex Noren $6,900 -1.055 1.34 0 0 0 0
Colin Montgomerie $6,100 -0.978 -0.506 0 0 0 0
Mark O’Meara $5,500 -0.942 0 0 0 0 0
Mark Calcavecchia $5,600 -0.888 0 0 0 0 0
Thomas Pieters $6,400 -0.604 0.719 0 0 0 0
Marcus Fraser $5,800 -0.599 -0.056 0 0 0 0
Brian Gay $5,900 -0.479 1.751 0 0 0 0
Andrew Johnston $6,400 -0.374 0.208 0 0 0 0
Nicolas Colsaerts $7,200 -0.366 1.18 0 0 0 0
Richie Ramsay $6,100 -0.362 0.242 0 0 0 0
Rod Pampling $5,300 -0.27 -0.048 0 0 0 0
Scott Hend $6,000 -0.245 0.195 0 0 0 0
Rikard Karlberg $6,300 -0.035 1.024 0 0 0 0
Brandon Stone $6,700 0 0.683 0 0 0 0
Jeung-hun Wang $6,400 0 0.722 0 0 0 0
Zander Lombard $5,800 0 0.522 0 0 0 0
Scott Gregory $5,800 0 0 0 0 0 0
Clement Sordet $5,700 0 0.275 0 0 0 0
Kodai Ichihara $5,700 0 0 0 0 0 0
Shugo Imahira $5,700 0 0 0 0 0 0
Haydn Porteous $5,600 0 -0.514 0 0 0 0
Stefano Mazzoli $5,600 0 0 0 0 0 0
Phachara Khongwatmai $5,500 0 0 0 0 0 0
Soomin Lee $5,500 0 -0.421 0 0 0 0
James Heath $5,500 0 0 0 0 0 0
Callum Shinkwin $5,400 0 0.697 0 0 0 0
Dave Coupland $5,400 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oskar Arvidsson $5,400 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jack Senior $5,300 0 0.081 0 0 0 0
Lasse Jensen $5,300 0 0.293 0 0 0 0
Scott Fernandez $5,300 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sang-hee Lee $5,300 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Evans $5,200 0 -0.164 0 0 0 0
Paul Howard $5,200 0 -2.955 0 0 0 0
Yosuke Tsukada $5,200 0 -2.293 0 0 0 0
Steven Alker $5,200 0.094 0 0 0 0 0
Hideto Tanihara $5,500 0.181 0.253 0 0 0 0
Jordan Niebrugge $5,800 0.229 -1.757 0 0 0 0
K.T. Kim $6,000 0.304 0.439 0 0 0 0
Paul Dunne $6,700 0.442 0.029 0 0 0 0
Jon Rahm $6,600 1.442 1.855 0 0 0 0
Danny Willett $9,200 1.146 0.681 0.036 -0.134 0.088 -0.003
Scott Piercy $7,400 0.363 1.008 0.196 0 -0.228 -0.011
Rafa Cabrera Bello $6,900 0.628 0.846 0 0.266 -0.326 -0.02
Colt Knost $5,900 0.474 1.26 0.146 0 -0.231 -0.028
Jamie Lovemark $6,000 0.318 -0.19 0.082 0 -0.173 -0.03
Lee Westwood $8,500 0.704 1.138 0.32 -0.504 0.084 -0.033
Sergio Garcia $10,000 1.65 1.867 -0.064 0 -0.042 -0.035
Smylie Kaufman $6,200 0.444 -0.259 0 0 -0.108 -0.036
Robert Rock $6,100 0 0.048 0 -0.116 0 -0.039
Jim Furyk $7,700 1.567 0.626 -0.288 0.2 -0.082 -0.057
Ross Fisher $6,400 0.236 0.732 0 -0.174 0 -0.058
Jimmy Walker $7,100 1.044 -0.096 0.117 0.164 -0.554 -0.091
Russell Henley $6,200 0.208 0.235 -0.126 0 -0.148 -0.091
Kevin Chappell $6,800 0.686 0.897 -0.603 0 0.317 -0.096
Ryan Moore $6,200 0.726 0.321 0.318 0 -0.607 -0.096
Vijay Singh $6,100 0.127 1.003 -0.179 0 -0.118 -0.099
Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,000 0.521 0.486 0.028 -0.351 -0.03 -0.118
Francesco Molinari $7,000 0.794 1.161 -0.584 0.086 0.124 -0.125
Bill Haas $6,600 0.852 0.361 -0.12 0 -0.276 -0.132
Harris English $6,300 0.782 0.982 -0.082 0 -0.328 -0.136
Keegan Bradley $6,400 0.75 0.353 -0.334 0 -0.09 -0.141
Charley Hoffman $6,300 0.712 0.478 0.05 0 -0.521 -0.157
Zach Johnson $8,100 0.936 1.052 -0.334 0 -0.144 -0.159
Tony Finau $6,200 0.694 0.431 -0.276 0 -0.203 -0.16
Justin Thomas $7,500 0.735 0.432 -0.379 0 -0.189 -0.189
Greg Chalmers $6,000 -0.407 -3.42 0 0 -0.571 -0.19
Jason Dufner $7,100 0.553 0.816 -0.231 0 -0.341 -0.191
Chris Kirk $6,600 0.587 0.546 -0.191 0 -0.386 -0.192
Anirban Lahiri $6,500 0.045 0.158 -0.458 0 -0.161 -0.206
Hideki Matsuyama $8,300 1.25 0.102 -0.412 0 -0.219 -0.21
Marc Leishman $7,400 0.721 0.058 -0.602 0 -0.042 -0.215
Kevin Na $6,500 0.993 0.452 0.156 -0.47 -0.339 -0.218
Gary Woodland $6,300 0.719 1.341 -0.37 0 -0.284 -0.218
Emiliano Grillo $6,400 0.521 0.306 -0.594 0 -0.224 -0.273
Kevin Kisner $6,700 0.565 0.346 -0.602 0 -0.294 -0.299
Jim Herman $5,700 0.013 -0.674 -0.44 0 -0.458 -0.299
Robert Streb $6,100 0.575 0.235 -0.605 0 -0.313 -0.306
Danny Lee $6,300 0.444 0.209 -0.61 0 -0.337 -0.316
Anthony Wall $5,500 1.687 -0.13 0 -0.986 0 -0.329
Byeong Hun An $7,200 0.322 0.232 -0.832 0 -0.35 -0.394
Ryan Palmer $6,100 0.909 0.712 -0.708 -0.39 -0.147 -0.415
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $6,200 -0.382 -0.887 -1.254 0 -0.125 -0.46
Fabian Gomez $5,800 -0.161 -0.54 -0.325 0 -1.098 -0.474
Jamie Donaldson $6,600 0.522 -0.121 -0.344 -1.205 0.073 -0.492
Steven Bowditch $5,300 -0.619 -2.709 -0.849 0 -0.734 -0.528
Webb Simpson $6,600 0.734 1.247 -0.734 0 -0.862 -0.532

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.