Searching for a Specialist: Pebble Beach Pro-Am

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Welcome back to this week’s search for a specialist.

Daniel Berger was our top-performing specialist last week (T7) but 3-of-8 missed the cut, so it wasn’t one of our best weeks, either. That includes the main specialist, Roberto Castro, who fought back from some early trouble but still missed the cut on the number.

Overall since I started this article, the top specialist for the week has found a top 20 in 34% of events with a cut, and they’ve found top 10s in 56% of events with no cut. That means we have to wipe away the Roberto Castro tears and regroup for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

This week we will target four angles: Cold Weather, Poa Annua Greens, Easy-to-Hit Fairways, and California Courses.

Here we go…

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Cold Weather

The forecast for this week looks sloppy early in the week, and the temperature isn’t supposed to surpass 62 degrees.

Last week in Phoenix, Brooks Koepka talked about his distances being 5% off in the morning compared to afternoon. Not only does temperature affect the actual golf, but it also impacts how a golfer may warm up.

Some golfers don’t mind this chilly weather, but others much prefer a cozy round in the mid 70s.

The Top 10 Cold Weather Specialists are:

William McGirt (1.879 sg:cold weather vs. 1.025 sg:total)
K.J. Choi (1.465 sg:cold weather vs. 0.614 sg:total)
Luke Donald (1.891 sg:cold weather vs. 1.042 sg:total)
Greg Owen (0.78 sg:cold weather vs. 0.038 sg:total)
Martin Laird (1.594 sg:cold weather vs. 0.908 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.602 sg:cold weather vs. 0.929 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (1.985 sg:cold weather vs. 1.391 sg:total)
Sung Kang (1.292 sg:cold weather vs. 0.737 sg:total)
Vaughn Taylor (1.373 sg:cold weather vs. 0.846 sg:total)
Brian Stuard (1.023 sg:cold weather vs. 0.502 sg:total)

A lot of the golfers that show up on this list are from colder climates or live near a coast.

Luke Donald is someone who definitely thrives in this weather, being from England. Since 2014 he’s played in 40 rounds on the PGA TOUR when the temperature was 70 degree or lower; he’s gained 2+ strokes over the field in 18 of those of rounds! That’s 45% of his rounds, which is way higher than his baseline over that time of about 30%.

Poa Annua Greens

Every year when the California Swing comes around, some golfers just wait it out or pick and choose their starts on the West Coast, trying to avoid any poa annua greens.

Golfers like Zach Johnson and Kevin Kisner have cited this in the past, even though Kisner found his way into this week’s field for some reason.

We want the opposite of these two golfers above. We want the golfers that don’t mind the bumpy poa surfaces.

The 10 Poa Annua Specialists remaining:

K.J. Choi (1.734 sg:poa vs. 0.614 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (1.187 sg:poa vs. 0.187 sg:total)
Shane Lowry (2.556 sg:poa vs. 1.558 sg:total)
Derek Fathauer (1.244 sg:poa vs. 0.396 sg:total)
Martin Laird (1.753 sg:poa vs. 0.908 sg:total)
Charlie Beljan (0.052 sg:poa vs. -0.703 sg:total)
Jonas Blixt (1.184 sg:poa vs. 0.52 sg:total)
Will MacKenzie (0.972 sg:poa vs. 0.311 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.104 sg:poa vs. 2.483 sg:total)
Brendon Todd (1.278 sg:poa vs. 0.659 sg:total)

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This list doesn’t have much in terms of golfers we consider “good putters.” That’s the thing with poa annua greens, it’s a whole nother’ animal. DJ is not known for his strong putting skills, but he often finds a way to win the battle with poa.

This list can sometimes also serve as a coastal specialist list as well. I suppose that has to do with turf management and the type of grass that are able to survive particular climates.

Shane Lowry is someone I certainly think of when it comes to coastal/links golf.

Easy-to-Hit Fairways

Since 2010 when the current three-course rota started being used, the field has averaged 69.7% of fairways hit.

That’s extremely easy and it’s partially due to the length of the courses. If golfers don’t feel comfortable with their driver on any hole they can club down and still have a mid-iron into the green.

The Top 10 Easy Fairway Specialists:

Ryan Armour (0.898 sg:easy fairways vs. -0.124 sg:total)
Charlie Beljan (0.252 sg:easy fairways vs. -0.703 sg:total)
Hiroshi Iwata (0.885 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.206 sg:total)
Steve Marino (0.716 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.047 sg:total)
Padraig Harrington (0.776 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.139 sg:total)
Tyler Aldridge (0.728 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.099 sg:total)
Smylie Kaufman (1.33 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.702 sg:total)
Henrik Norlander (1.314 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.693 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.245 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.656 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (3.057 sg:easy fairways vs. 2.496 sg:total)

With wet conditions on tap, fairways will have very little roll, which should only increase the percentage of fairways hit this week.

Augusta National is another big-name course with easy-to-hit fairways so it makes sense that we see Jordan Spieth here.

This also means looking at stats like Proximity or GIR from the Fairway might not be a bad idea this week.

California Courses

Most events played in California have a common theme.

A majority have poa annua greens. The weather is also usually a bit cooler than we find later in the season.

We’ve already talked about both of those angles, so this is kind of a reassurance angle. You will see a large correlation with poa greens, especially, but it will also pick up on any unknown factors for why a particular golfer may excel in Cali.

Of course, sometimes that is noise the stats pick up, but filtering these by only golfers with 25 rounds at each angle helps eliminate some of that noise in the long run.

The 10 California Specialists:

K.J. Choi (1.734 sg:cali vs. 0.614 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (1.22 sg:cali vs. 0.187 sg:total)
Martin Laird (1.879 sg:cali vs. 0.908 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (1.706 sg:cali vs. 0.987 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (2.1 sg:cali vs. 1.391 sg:total)
Brendon Todd (1.292 sg:cali vs. 0.659 sg:total)
Matt Jones (1.458 sg:cali vs. 0.874 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (2.106 sg:cali vs. 1.53 sg:total)
Padraig Harrington (0.672 sg:cali vs. 0.139 sg:total)
D.A. Points (0.327 sg:cali vs. -0.202 sg:total)

Hadwin is the perfect example of picking up on unknown factors. After his glorious run at the CareerBuilder, he mentioned how much he loves coming down to this area because a lot of Canadians set up shop here to escape the cold winters. He also had success on the mini tours in California, so there is a bit of added confidence there, as well.

On the flip side, a lot of golfers from the Southeast often struggle when they make starts on the opposite coast. It could be the greens, the climate, or just being away from their home base. Whatever it is, we want to avoid them.

Baseline Performance

We now have a list of 11 potential specialists but we can narrow that down by looking at current form.

If a golfer hasn’t teed it up over the last 10 weeks or if they are losing strokes to the field over that time frame, then we can eliminate them from our specialist search. That includes:

Brendon Todd
Scott Langley
Tyrone Van Aswegen
Padraig Harrington

While these guys are a good fit, on paper, they just aren’t playing well enough to trust them.

The Specialists

Scott Stallings
Matt Jones
Jonas Blixt
Robert Garrigus
Mark Hubbard
Roberto Castro
Jim Herman

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Our specialist this week is Scott Stallings!

Scott Stallings as the specialist is a scary thing. He is not a golfer I would ever have isolated without looking at these angles. He’s also 74-for-163 in his PGA TOUR career (45% cuts made). Digging deeper we see he’s won on poa greens (2014 Farmers) and finished T8 in California just three weeks ago (CareerBuilder). His ownership should be almost non-existent this week, so he will make a huge impact if he does pop this week.

In fact, this week’s entire batch of specialists can be considered very boom-or-bust!

Surprisingly, the safest option of the bunch might be Matt Jones. The guy with no PGA TOUR card this season. He has the highest baseline strokes gained since 2014 and also brings the best course history of the specialists.

Other than that, these specialists should be sprinkled into GPP lineups this week. With pricing rather soft again, most of these golfers will get overlooked this week due to their low baselines.

Mark Hubbard is a very interesting name here. He is likely well off the radar for most this week (and rightfully so) but he has family in the area and proposed to his (then) girlfriend on the 18th green at this event just a few years ago. A very lively GPP flyer.

The Anti-Specialists

Looking for the opposite of our specialists, these golfers have negative numbers in all four angles!

Ben Martin
Chris Kirk
John Senden
Rory Sabbatini
Alex Cejka
Charley Hoffman
Ricky Barnes

Some people may get sucked into playing some well-known winners like Chris Kirk or Charley Hoffman but I am just fine taking a pass since the numbers tell us to do so.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),

Form looks at the performance over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro). Given the holiday break, form is still rounding back into shape.

Golfer DK SG:Total Form Poa Calif Cold Weather Easy FW Specialist Rating
Scott Stallings $6,900 0.187 2.274 1 1.033 0.14 0.347 0.63
K.J. Choi $7,300 0.614 -1.059 1.121 1.121 0.851 -0.589 0.626
Martin Laird $7,100 0.908 2.25 0.845 0.971 0.686 -0.224 0.57
Padraig Harrington $6,800 0.139 -0.54 0.329 0.533 0.27 0.637 0.442
Charlie Beljan $6,800 -0.703 -1.26 0.755 0.307 -0.396 0.955 0.405
Brendon Todd $6,500 0.659 0 0.619 0.633 0.062 0.208 0.38
Matt Jones $7,000 0.874 1.676 0.415 0.585 0.208 0.309 0.379
J.B. Holmes $8,400 1.391 1.985 0.493 0.708 0.593 -0.432 0.341
Adam Hadwin $7,300 0.987 2.609 0.139 0.718 -0.031 0.433 0.315
D.A. Points $6,500 -0.202 0.607 0.531 0.529 -0.008 0.153 0.301
Jonas Blixt $7,800 0.52 0.858 0.663 0.447 0.004 0.073 0.297
Derek Fathauer $7,100 0.396 -0.839 0.848 0.344 -0.168 0.031 0.264
Ryan Armour $6,900 -0.124 1.076 0 0 0 1.022 0.255
Brian Stuard $7,300 0.502 0.944 -0.13 0.092 0.522 0.5 0.246
Jimmy Walker $8,800 1.53 0.921 0.117 0.576 -0.304 0.511 0.225
Phil Mickelson $9,300 1.908 2.359 -0.171 0.477 0.422 0.133 0.215
Chez Reavie $7,800 0.952 2.292 0.422 0.505 0.266 -0.359 0.209
Robert Garrigus $6,600 0.387 1.235 0.225 0.272 0.106 0.231 0.208
Mark Hubbard $6,500 0.141 0.109 0.18 0.395 0.162 0.096 0.208
Tyrone Van Aswegen $6,900 0.178 -0.219 0.594 0.043 0.166 0.021 0.206
Bryce Molder $6,800 0.68 0.292 0.272 0.191 -0.106 0.456 0.203
Sean O’Hair $7,300 0.733 2.166 0.301 0.494 0.006 -0.003 0.2
Will MacKenzie $6,900 0.311 -1.217 0.661 0.313 -0.078 -0.127 0.192
Max Homa $6,800 -0.601 -1.264 0.435 0.317 0 0 0.188
Morgan Hoffmann $6,700 0.46 0.235 0.509 0.134 0.22 -0.117 0.187
Roberto Castro $7,900 0.54 1.324 0.083 0.258 0.332 0.052 0.181
Kevin Streelman $7,700 0.81 -0.192 0.345 0.241 -0.187 0.325 0.181
Spencer Levin $6,500 0.442 -0.765 0.498 0.34 -0.19 0.075 0.181
Andres Gonzales $7,300 0.049 0.45 0.34 0.525 -0.446 0.301 0.18
Andrew Loupe $6,400 0 -3.813 0.452 0.218 -0.085 0.129 0.178
Hunter Mahan $6,700 0.648 0.214 0.263 0.42 0.312 -0.296 0.175
Jim Herman $6,900 0.575 1.884 0.259 0.04 0.144 0.24 0.171
Dustin Johnson $11,800 2.483 2.233 0.62 0.194 -0.118 -0.018 0.17
Hiroshi Iwata $6,700 0.206 -4.097 0 0 0 0.679 0.17
Tony Finau $8,100 1.255 2.001 0.519 0.164 -0.321 0.314 0.169
Scott Langley $7,000 0.434 0 0.128 0.121 0.201 0.223 0.168
Vaughn Taylor $6,900 0.846 0.835 0 0 0.527 0.1 0.157
Shane Lowry $7,000 1.558 2.11 0.998 0 -0.109 -0.263 0.156
Henrik Norlander $6,500 0.693 1.35 0 0 0 0.621 0.155
Pat Perez $7,300 0.929 1.699 -0.058 -0.136 0.674 0.096 0.144
Michael Thompson $7,300 0.403 1.409 0.319 0.318 -0.061 -0.015 0.14
Luke Donald $6,800 1.042 0.316 0 0 0.849 -0.338 0.128
Miguel Angel Carballo $7,000 -0.489 -0.569 0 0.2 0 0.31 0.127
Tyler Aldridge $6,800 0.099 -2.897 0 0 -0.142 0.629 0.122
Justin Rose $9,200 2.349 2.768 -0.215 0 0.121 0.508 0.104
Whee Kim $6,800 0.351 0.382 -0.147 0.06 0.353 0.143 0.102
Cameron Smith $6,900 0.656 1.12 0.504 -0.078 -0.609 0.589 0.101
Kevin Tway $6,600 -0.531 -0.95 0 0.299 0 0.1 0.1
Ryan Palmer $7,000 1.58 -1.156 0 -0.012 -0.02 0.415 0.096
J.J. Henry $7,000 -0.061 -0.619 0.502 0.421 -0.38 -0.185 0.09
Stuart Appleby $6,800 0.483 -0.897 -0.261 -0.023 0.137 0.49 0.086
Nick Watney $7,100 0.816 0.136 0.331 0.336 -0.228 -0.121 0.079
Steve Marino $6,400 0.047 -1.098 0 0 -0.356 0.67 0.078
Peter Malnati $6,700 -0.21 0.35 0 0.207 0.3 -0.256 0.063
William McGirt $7,500 1.025 1.293 -0.078 -0.142 0.854 -0.406 0.057
Jason Kokrak $7,500 1.059 0.21 0.053 -0.116 0.401 -0.122 0.054
James Hahn $7,200 0.624 0.504 0.094 0.212 0.108 -0.203 0.053
Sung Kang $7,700 0.737 1.017 0 0 0.554 -0.387 0.042
Patrick Reed $8,300 1.59 1.443 -0.25 0.281 -0.205 0.336 0.04
Ken Duke $6,400 -0.033 0.25 0.092 0.027 0.196 -0.161 0.039
Smylie Kaufman $6,700 0.702 -0.266 0 0 -0.491 0.628 0.034
Vijay Singh $7,300 0.552 0.714 0.155 0.237 -0.139 -0.124 0.032
Brad Fritsch $7,300 0.149 0.092 0 0 0 0.119 0.03
Bryson DeChambeau $6,700 0.692 -0.163 0 0 0 0.072 0.018
Matt Kuchar $8,600 2.019 2.926 0 0 0.405 -0.341 0.016
Brian Gay $6,700 -0.216 0.912 0 0 0.037 0.025 0.015
Tim Wilkinson $7,100 0.236 1.539 -0.039 -0.175 0.508 -0.249 0.011
Jordan Spieth $12,000 2.496 3.076 -0.345 -0.375 0.188 0.56 0.007
Andrew Johnston $7,000 0.837 -0.348 0 0 0 0 0
Beau Hossler $7,100 0.694 1.043 0 0 0 0 0
Bob Estes $6,600 -0.736 -0.344 0 0 0 0 0
Bobby Wyatt $6,800 -0.416 -1.464 0 0 0 0 0
Brandon Hagy $6,400 0.225 -0.266 0 0 0 0 0
Brett Coletta $6,400 0 1.969 0 0 0 0 0
Brett Drewitt $6,500 -0.666 -0.916 0 0 0 0 0
Brian Campbell $6,700 0.104 1.576 0 0 0 0 0
C.T. Pan $6,900 0.646 0.371 0 0 0 0 0
Cody Gribble $6,900 1.269 0.599 0 0 0 0 0
David Duval $6,900 -1.242 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dominic Bozzelli $6,900 0.084 1.107 0 0 0 0 0
Grayson Murray $7,600 1.117 1.635 0 0 0 0 0
J.J. Spaun $7,900 0.824 1.937 0 0 0 0 0
J.T. Poston $6,500 0.14 0.25 0 0 0 0 0
Joel Dahmen $6,700 -0.345 -0.509 0 0 0 0 0
Jon Rahm $9,600 2.004 2.693 0 0 0 0 0
Jonathan Randolph $7,100 -0.295 0.52 0 0 0 0 0
Julian Etulain $6,400 -0.931 -0.48 0 0 0 0 0
Kelly Kraft $7,400 0.207 0.954 0 0 0 0 0
Mackenzie Hughes $6,500 0.785 0.572 0 0 0 0 0
Mark Anderson $6,900 -0.909 0.235 0 0 0 0 0
Neal Lancaster $7,100 -3.344 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nicholas Lindheim $6,600 -0.232 -1.069 0 0 0 0 0
Patrick Cantlay $6,600 -0.745 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ray Otis $7,100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rich Berberian, Jr. $6,800 -1.304 0 0 0 0 0 0
Richy Werenski $7,100 0.597 2.039 0 0 0 0 0
Rick Lamb $6,500 -1.948 -2.064 0 0 0 0 0
Rob Oppenheim $6,600 0.02 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Blaum $6,900 1.167 0.764 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Brehm $6,700 0.564 0.705 0 0 0 0 0
Seamus Power $7,300 0.903 1.25 0 0 0 0 0
Sebastian Munoz $7,000 0.038 -0.337 0 0 0 0 0
Steven Alker $6,400 0.084 -0.444 0 0 0 0 0
Tag Ridings $6,900 -0.719 -0.951 0 0 0 0 0
Trey Mullinax $7,200 0.51 0.955 0 0 0 0 0
Xander Schauffele $6,400 -0.103 -1.645 0 0 0 0 0
Zack Sucher $6,800 -0.885 -1.064 0 0 0 0 0
Seung-Yul Noh $6,400 0.598 -0.346 -0.198 -0.039 0.127 0.083 -0.007
Matt Every $6,400 -0.416 -2.442 -0.401 0.218 -0.013 0.155 -0.01
Steve Stricker $6,600 1.488 1.426 0 0 0 -0.053 -0.013
Jim Furyk $7,500 2.181 0 0.28 0 -0.396 -0.027 -0.036
Stewart Cink $7,500 0.915 1.5 0.072 -0.29 0.015 0.053 -0.038
Martin Flores $6,700 0.617 0.949 0 -0.214 -0.074 0.133 -0.039
Steven Bowditch $7,400 -0.391 -0.841 0.044 0.132 -0.567 0.22 -0.043
Rod Pampling $6,500 0.137 0.32 0 0 0 -0.202 -0.051
Robert Streb $6,600 1.105 1.366 -0.046 -0.233 0.215 -0.175 -0.06
Jason Bohn $7,000 0.745 -0.724 0.559 -0.186 -0.564 -0.078 -0.067
Zac Blair $6,900 0.557 1.078 0.209 -0.197 -0.289 -0.014 -0.073
Daniel Summerhays $7,600 1.052 1.185 0.436 -0.233 -0.12 -0.38 -0.074
Nick Taylor $6,600 0.31 0.504 -0.256 -0.096 0.512 -0.48 -0.08
Scott Brown $6,800 0.634 0.76 -0.209 -0.25 -0.013 0.123 -0.087
Brandt Snedeker $10,000 1.492 1.633 -0.001 -0.186 -0.366 0.191 -0.091
Troy Merritt $6,400 0.356 0.381 -0.304 -0.473 0.264 0.148 -0.091
Jason Day $11,600 2.761 1.094 0.144 0 -0.325 -0.187 -0.092
Chris Stroud $7,200 0.651 0 -0.223 -0.459 0.007 0.257 -0.105
Michael Putnam $6,500 0.315 0 -0.278 0.025 -0.304 0.057 -0.125
Brett Stegmaier $6,800 0.314 -1.956 0 0 -0.361 -0.189 -0.138
Billy Hurley III $6,800 0.622 0.165 -0.346 -0.031 0 -0.193 -0.142
Si Woo Kim $7,400 0.942 -3.039 0 0 -0.826 0.246 -0.145
Gary Woodland $8,000 1.46 2.066 -0.355 -0.095 0.087 -0.287 -0.162
Greg Owen $7,400 0.038 2.359 -0.631 -0.831 0.742 0.058 -0.165
Webb Simpson $8,200 1.338 2.333 0 -0.423 -0.376 0.135 -0.166
Geoff Ogilvy $7,000 0.371 0.935 -0.507 -0.657 -0.002 0.477 -0.172
Cameron Tringale $6,600 0.898 -1.192 -0.299 -0.27 -0.324 0.183 -0.178
Ricky Barnes $6,600 0.375 -1.299 -0.253 -0.268 -0.01 -0.228 -0.19
Chad Collins $7,100 0.177 -0.528 -0.287 0.097 -0.837 0.229 -0.199
Cameron Percy $6,400 0.341 -0.356 0 -0.717 0 -0.158 -0.219
Greg Chalmers $6,600 -0.195 0.077 0 0 -0.859 -0.2 -0.265
Charley Hoffman $7,200 1.184 0.914 -0.267 -0.079 -0.429 -0.315 -0.272
Danny Lee $7,200 0.891 -0.154 -0.339 -0.338 -0.423 0.006 -0.273
Kevin Chappell $7,200 1.184 -1.348 -0.51 -0.708 -0.208 0.131 -0.324
Jerry Kelly $6,600 0.953 -0.344 0 -0.495 -0.784 -0.017 -0.324
Alex Cejka $6,700 0.641 -1.402 -0.824 -0.329 -0.079 -0.092 -0.331
Kevin Kisner $7,400 1.149 2.661 -0.256 -0.759 -0.796 0.406 -0.351
Steve Wheatcroft $7,200 0.346 -2.897 -0.88 -0.359 -0.221 0.048 -0.353
Rory Sabbatini $6,600 0.444 1.289 -0.491 -0.55 -0.055 -0.341 -0.359
John Senden $6,700 1.021 0.025 -0.267 -0.792 -0.265 -0.227 -0.388
Mike Weir $6,600 -1.94 0 0 -0.754 0 -0.918 -0.418
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano $7,200 0.123 -0.385 0 -0.672 -0.972 -0.192 -0.459
Chris Kirk $7,500 1.279 1.295 -1.068 -0.383 -0.397 -0.106 -0.488
Ben Martin $6,700 0.687 0.329 -0.948 -0.869 -0.179 -0.087 -0.521
Sam Saunders $7,200 -0.063 -0.843 0 -1.678 0 -0.462 -0.535
David Hearn $6,500 0.855 0.359 -0.484 -0.892 -0.873 0.075 -0.543
Scott Piercy $7,200 1.055 0.416 -0.753 -0.98 -0.637 0.114 -0.564

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.