Searching for a Specialist: PGA Championship

As we prep for the season’s final major, a field of 156 golfers will head to the Midwest to take on Bellerive Country Club.

It’s a tree-lined, par-70 layout with lots of bunkers and large bentgrass greens.

Reviewing last week, it was a good example of what Mother Nature can do to our search. Historically, one of the tougher tracks on TOUR, Firestone was a slave to soft conditions and it played to a field average of 69.90 which is the first time it’s played under-par since…. 2000. Sometimes you get thrown a curveball like that and expected course fit shifts a little.

This week we look to rebound as we check out performance on Bentgrass Greens, performance on Long Courses, performance against Strong Fields, and performance on Par 70s.

As you may notice, all four of our angles also fit last week’s conditions at Firestone so if someone played well at the Bridgestone then consider riding that form.

Here we go …

Bentgrass Greens

Bellerive has zoysia fairways and fescue rough but bentgrass once you reach the greens.

Because of the current weather, these greens have to be heavily watered and they can’t get too aggressive with green speeds. They should be very receptive which is often the case with these summer events on bentgrass.

The 10 Bentgrass Specialists:

Thorbjorn Olesen (1.875 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.142 sg:total)
Satoshi Kodaira (0.767 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.077 sg:total)
Peter Uihlein (1.974 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.408 sg:total)
Padraig Harrington (0.857 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.294 sg:total)
Hao Tong Li (0.875 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.344 sg:total)
Thomas Bjorn (0.458 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.051 sg:total)
Martin Kaymer (1.632 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.215 sg:total)
Michael Kim (1.058 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.666 sg:total)
Whee Kim (0.951 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.588 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.853 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.493 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on bentgrass since 2014 are Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Dustin Johnson, and Tony Finau.

We see a list that is heavily populated with Euro Tour talents. When heading to bentgrass, we often see softer conditions and the Euro Tour sees a lot of similar courses on the European mainland as well as Asia.

Fowler remains an appealing option given his adjusted Bentgrass performance is close to 3 shots over the field per round.

J.J. Spaun is still in the “prove it” mode bentgrass. His sample is somewhat small still but I want to see a few more top-heavy finishes on bentgrass before I ever invest in him on bent.

Long Courses

Last week we saw seven par 4s over 450 yards. This week we have a similar setup with six par 4s over 450 yards.

With softer conditions on hand, we should see this course play pretty long.

The Top 10 Long Course Specialists:

Andrew Landry (1.084 sg:long vs. 0.692 sg:total)
Patrick Cantlay (2.685 sg:long vs. 2.294 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (1.633 sg:long vs. 1.263 sg:total)
Andrew Putnam (1.206 sg:long vs. 0.85 sg:total)
Nick Watney (1.391 sg:long vs. 1.101 sg:total)
Brian Gay (1.331 sg:long vs. 1.046 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.371 sg:long vs. 1.092 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.467 sg:long vs. 2.188 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (2.27 sg:long vs. 1.997 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.408 sg:long vs. 1.142 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (1.768 sg:long vs. 1.538 sg:total)

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on long courses since 2014 are Paul Casey, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Jason Day, and Justin Rose.

There are three golfers that lose more than half a stroke per round compared to their baseline when heading to long courses. Those golfers are Davis Love III, Byeong Hun An, and Ted Potter, Jr.

It’s pretty surprising to see Ben An at the bottom. Perhaps it’s just a small sample but I will wait to see some results before I invest in him on longer layouts.

Strong Fields

Some of this angle is mental and some of it is scheduling.

Some guys play up to their competition or set their schedule to peak in the majors.

Others don’t really “get up” for the lesser events so we don’t see their full potential until the big events.

There are a lot of reasons why a golfer could perform better or worse in big events but here is who does well…

The Top 10 Strong Field Specialists:

Chesson Hadley (1.503 sg:strong vs. 1.036 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.754 sg:strong vs. 1.361 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (1.871 sg:strong vs. 1.501 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.511 sg:strong vs. 1.142 sg:total)
Padraig Harrington (0.643 sg:strong vs. 0.294 sg:total)
Bryson DeChambeau (1.93 sg:strong vs. 1.586 sg:total)
Peter Uihlein (1.714 sg:strong vs. 1.408 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.393 sg:strong vs. 1.132 sg:total)
Brian Gay (1.295 sg:strong vs. 1.046 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.381 sg:strong vs. 2.166 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained against strong fields since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Rose.

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If you continually outperform your baseline in big events, then you will eventually put yourself in that position to hoist some hardware.

Brooks Koepka is a perfect example of that. He says that majors force him to focus more and that helps him prevent some of those silly double bogeys that we often see from him.

Par 70 Courses

Looking at the scorecard this week, there are only two par 5s on the docket and both are over 595 yards!

That means that you’ll need to grind it out on the par 3s and par 4s in order to keep your name in the mix. You can’t rely on the par 5s to bounce back from a few bad holes.

The Top 10 Par 70 Specialists:

Ryan Armour (1.534 sg:par70 vs. 0.92 sg:total)
Davis Love III (0.491 sg:par70 vs. -0.077 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.625 sg:par70 vs. 2.188 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (1.847 sg:par70 vs. 1.501 sg:total)
Webb Simpson (2.254 sg:par70 vs. 1.913 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (2.178 sg:par70 vs. 1.845 sg:total)
Tyrrell Hatton (2.109 sg:par70 vs. 1.783 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.481 sg:par70 vs. 2.166 sg:total)
Chez Reavie (1.78 sg:par70 vs. 1.469 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.825 sg:par70 vs. 1.516 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on par 70s since 2014 are Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Paul Casey, Webb Simpson, and Dustin Johnson.

We see a great blend of big hitters and course managers on this list. The bigger hitters that show up here are typically the huge bombers that can bomb-and-gouge the par 4s.

In general, when I think of great par-70 golfers I think more of the plodding type.

Baseline Performance

We now have a list of eight golfers that are positive in all of the angles above.

However, two of them just can’t be trusted due to their current form. That would be Charl Schwartzel and Vijay Singh.

Schwartzel did pop in a recent Euro Tour event and finished strong at the Bridgestone. There is a glimmer of hope there if you think he’s on the upswing. Historically, this would be a great course for him.

The Specialists

Brooks Koepka
Kyle Stanley
Xander Schauffele
Charley Hoffman
Paul Casey
Tony Finau

The specialist this week is Brooks Koepka!

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It’s no secret that Koepka is a big-game hunter. He’s the back-to-back U.S. Open champ and he showed plenty of major-championship prowess even before that.

The surprising thing is his performance on par 70s. As a bomber, you’d think he uses his power to tear apart the par 5s but he’s no one-trick pony. In 32 starts on par 70s he has racked up top 10s in 13 of them (41%). His top-10 rate in all other starts is just 22%.

Koepka already has 13 top 20s on his major resume and I’d look for him to add another this week.

Judging the entire pool of specialists this week, it looks like the course should favor the big-hitting, ball-strikers.

We saw Stanley get into contention last week at Firestone while Xander, Charley, and Casey were disappointing as specialists. They have a chance to redeem themselves this week in St. Louis.

Lastly, we have Tony Finau who is sort of Koepka-lite when it comes to performance in majors. We’ve seen him post finishes of T18 or better in six of his 10 career major-championship appearances. That includes top 10 in each of the first three majors.

The Anti-Specialists

We have six golfers that qualify as specialists this week but who does the opposite, grading out negatively in all four of the angles?

Brice Garnett
Patton Kizzire
Brendan Steele
Pat Perez
Rafa Cabrera Bello

Kizzire, Steele, and Perez are all guys I consider “Fall Swing Specialists.” I will gladly wait until next season to re-invest.

Brice Garnett is someone that has dominated on the Web.com Tour and against weaker-field PGA TOUR events. Not someone I’m ready to pick for a major.

Lastly, we have RCB who was in a huge slump before last week. He is the one name from this list that I wouldn’t talk someone out of. He won’t crack my player pool personally, but I could see the merit to sprinkling him in some lineups.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Brooks Koepka
Paul Casey
Rickie Fowler
Tony Finau
Justin Rose
Patrick Reed
Zach Johnson
Dustin Johnson
Rory Mcilroy
Francesco Molinari
Charley Hoffman
Tyrrell Hatton
Justin Thomas
Henrik Stenson
Patrick Cantlay
Matt Kuchar
Joaquin Niemann
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Eddie Pepperell

If this list holds true then Koepka and Finau will be continuing their run of tremendous major performances.

Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose both crack the list but both also arrive with some injury question marks.

Eddie Pepperell is benefitting from a small sample in the SG Total column, so I wouldn’t get too excited about his prospects over here in the States. He’s historically done his best work on links-style tracks or parkland courses on the European mainland.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made small adjustments for sample sizes but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at SGTotal, FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Bentgrass Long Strong Field Par 70 Specialist Rating Simple Rating
Thorbjorn Olesen $6,700 $8,600 $12,000 1.142 1.279 61.778 0.733 0.266 0.369 0 0.342 265
Brooks Koepka $9,600 $11,600 $16,100 2.188 2.605 54.562 0.331 0.278 0.066 0.437 0.278 71
Padraig Harrington $6,600 $7,000 $11,400 0.294 1.238 -13.303 0.563 0.168 0.348 -0.03 0.262 662
Kyle Stanley $7,100 $8,500 $12,200 1.361 -0.97 37.276 0.287 0.077 0.393 0.133 0.222 297
Peter Uihlein $7,300 $8,600 $12,200 1.408 0.231 17.497 0.566 0.015 0.306 0 0.222 379
Xander Schauffele $8,200 $9,900 $15,000 1.501 -1.21 37.83 0.001 0.148 0.37 0.346 0.216 258
Martin Kaymer $7,000 $7,700 $12,200 1.215 1.921 3.003 0.417 -0.128 0.201 0.268 0.19 485
Matt Kuchar $7,900 $10,400 $14,200 2.166 1.97 30.502 0.266 -0.071 0.215 0.315 0.181 165
Ryan Armour $6,300 $7,000 $11,300 0.92 0 25.33 0.26 0.122 -0.274 0.614 0.181 435
Hao Tong Li $6,700 $8,500 $12,000 0.344 0.345 39.985 0.531 0 0.159 0 0.173 418
Satoshi Kodaira $6,500 $7,600 $11,000 0.077 1.131 -11.07 0.69 0 -0.064 0 0.157 679
Bubba Watson $8,000 $10,200 $14,400 1.845 1.193 33.948 -0.165 0.174 0.19 0.333 0.133 183
Andrew Putnam $6,900 $7,600 NA 0.85 0 18.467 0.102 0.356 0 0.074 0.133 477
Thomas Bjorn $6,200 $7,100 $10,300 -0.051 -0.5 -12.874 0.509 0 0.017 0 0.131 719
Charley Hoffman $7,200 $9,100 $12,900 1.664 0.158 57.844 0.119 0.058 0.159 0.152 0.122 149
Paul Casey $8,000 $10,900 $14,500 2.443 1.75 53.781 0.085 0.176 0.084 0.142 0.122 72
Vijay Singh $6,300 $7,100 $10,700 0.466 0.71 7.58 0.157 0.093 0.086 0.142 0.12 583
Chris Stroud $6,400 $7,200 $11,100 0.658 1.574 16.655 0.35 0.009 0.197 -0.122 0.109 511
Jim Furyk $6,600 $7,400 $11,300 1.543 1.096 19.287 0.025 0.22 -0.036 0.221 0.107 327
Charl Schwartzel $7,200 $8,100 $12,600 1.538 1.517 13.245 0.098 0.23 0.006 0.052 0.097 376
Tony Finau $8,100 $10,600 $14,800 1.936 1.371 65.056 0.1 0.061 0.108 0.087 0.089 99
Brian Gay $6,800 $7,300 $11,700 1.046 -0.069 44.43 -0.296 0.285 0.249 0.101 0.085 348
Zach Johnson $7,500 $9,800 $13,200 1.874 1.38 61.883 0.031 0.214 -0.01 0.064 0.075 114
Stewart Cink $6,700 $8,300 $11,300 1.376 0.102 47.285 0.049 -0.098 0.093 0.248 0.073 278
Ross Fisher $6,900 $7,900 $11,900 1.265 0.566 24.994 0.242 -0.119 0.13 0 0.063 394
Yuta Ikeda $6,400 $7,300 $11,100 0.157 0.702 6.853 0.111 0 0.138 0 0.062 612
Scott Brown $6,300 $7,200 $10,800 0.777 1.64 18.322 -0.114 0.096 0.2 0.048 0.058 496
Tyrrell Hatton $7,200 $8,800 $13,100 1.783 1.556 55.235 -0.384 0.217 0.054 0.326 0.053 149
Yusaku Miyazato $6,300 $7,100 $11,300 -0.488 0 -1.736 0 0 0.21 0 0.052 730
Thomas Pieters $7,600 $8,900 $13,500 1.412 -1.325 43.12 0.276 0 -0.067 0 0.052 285
Kevin Chappell $7,200 $9,300 $13,100 1.503 1.193 24.976 0.047 0.225 0.125 -0.212 0.046 348
Patrick Reed $8,900 $11,200 $15,200 1.997 2.58 57.515 0.044 0.273 -0.009 -0.131 0.044 111
Ian Poulter $7,400 $9,100 $12,900 1.558 1.371 45.663 0.161 -0.113 0.086 0.032 0.042 219
Rickie Fowler $10,200 $11,300 $16,300 2.493 2.282 56.799 0.361 -0.05 0.114 -0.279 0.037 81
Aaron Wise $6,800 $7,200 $11,900 1.438 0 16.441 0 0.135 0 0 0.034 406
Si Woo Kim $6,700 $8,400 $12,100 0.896 -0.805 33.419 -0.005 -0.1 -0.027 0.245 0.028 423
Branden Grace $7,800 $9,600 $14,000 1.74 1.788 10.326 -0.059 0.175 -0.124 0.107 0.025 359
Kevin Na $6,800 $8,600 $12,000 1.705 1.066 33.402 -0.176 0.092 -0.03 0.202 0.022 244
Justin Rose $9,400 $11,900 $16,200 2.75 1.952 44.424 0.245 -0.166 0.038 -0.029 0.022 100
Henrik Stenson $8,700 $11,000 $15,100 2.745 2.533 31.89 -0.042 -0.16 0.037 0.243 0.02 160
Joaquin Niemann $7,600 $9,200 $13,800 1.994 0 39.106 0.07 0 0 0 0.018 171
James Hahn $6,600 $7,600 $11,700 1.066 1.294 14.333 -0.141 -0.022 0.191 0.03 0.014 509
Brandon Stone $6,300 $7,500 $11,300 -0.885 -2.385 13.979 0 0 0.052 0 0.013 654
Eddie Pepperell $7,000 $8,000 $11,700 2.625 -0.719 29.913 0 0 0 0 0 175
Ryan Fox $7,100 $7,600 $12,000 1.222 0.977 52.996 0 0 0 0 0 309
Jorge Campillo $6,400 $7,100 $11,000 1.185 0 43.556 0 0 0 0 0 340
Julian Suri $6,900 $8,400 $11,700 1.088 0 33.815 0 0 0 0 0 402
Seungsu Han $6,400 $7,200 $10,700 1.805 0 -0.713 0 0 0 0 0 424
Alexander Bjork $6,800 $7,300 $11,300 0.065 0 41.237 0 0 0 0 0 471
Jordan Smith $6,400 $7,400 $11,300 1.326 2.054 12.529 0 0 0 0 0 474
Dylan Frittelli $6,700 $7,900 $11,800 0.558 0.516 20.206 0 0 0 0 0 525
Sungjae Im $6,500 $7,300 $10,700 1.087 0 3.13 0 0 0 0 0 553
Paul Dunne $6,900 $7,500 $11,800 0.53 0 14.517 0 0 0 0 0 566
Mike Lorenzo-Vera $6,400 $7,100 $10,600 0.016 0 16.53 0 0 0 0 0 590
Shubhankar Sharma $6,800 $7,800 $11,700 0.548 0 8.955 0 0 0 0 0 592
Adrian Otaegui $6,600 $7,100 $11,500 0 0 14.107 0 0 0 0 0 611
Ryuko Tokimatsu $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 0.489 0 3.97 0 0 0 0 0 613
Matt Wallace $6,500 $7,500 $11,500 0.232 0 9.253 0 0 0 0 0 614
Mikko Korhonen $6,300 $7,100 $10,500 0 0 13.422 0 0 0 0 0 617
Paul Broadhurst $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 0.226 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 645
Justin Harding $6,400 $7,100 $10,500 0 0 2.906 0 0 0 0 0 659
Daniel Balin $6,000 $7,000 NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 663
Craig Bowden $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 663
Zach J. Johnson $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 663
Ben Kern $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 663
Shawn Warren $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 663
Shugo Imahira $6,300 $7,200 $10,600 -0.229 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 693
Matt Dobyns $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 -0.593 -1.076 0 0 0 0 0 0 702
Marty Jertson $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -1.099 -1.613 0 0 0 0 0 0 708
Brian Smock $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 -1.189 -0.474 0 0 0 0 0 0 714
Rich Beem $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 -1.242 -0.622 0 0 0 0 0 0 717
Rich Berberian, Jr. NA NA $10,100 -1.651 -0.885 0 0 0 0 0 0 723
Bob Sowards $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -1.78 -0.869 0 0 0 0 0 0 729
Craig Hocknull $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -2.119 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 732
Matthew Borchert NA $7,000 NA -2.193 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 735
Jaysen Hansen $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -2.232 -0.988 0 0 0 0 0 0 738
Sean McCarty $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -0.363 0 -1.676 0 0 0 0 0 740
Jason Schmuhl $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 -4.075 -0.765 0 0 0 0 0 0 744
Johan Kok $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 -4.48 -1.154 0 0 0 0 0 0 747
Ryan Vermeer $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 -5.732 -2.544 0 0 0 0 0 0 750
David Muttitt $6,100 NA $10,100 -5.735 -3.071 0 0 0 0 0 0 753
Shaun Micheel $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 -1.144 -0.977 -7.966 0 0 0 0 0 767
Omar Uresti $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 -1.691 -1.226 -20.243 0 0 0 0 0 792
Michael Block $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 -2.882 -1.074 -12.87 0 0 0 0 0 801
Justin Thomas $9,700 $11,400 $16,000 2.343 2.55 52.202 -0.176 0.105 0.09 -0.019 0 156
Francesco Molinari $9,200 $11,200 $16,000 2.034 2.15 76.329 0.175 -0.078 -0.024 -0.075 -0.001 148
Brandt Snedeker $7,500 $9,100 $12,600 1.734 1.351 22.576 0.185 0.028 -0.257 0.037 -0.002 342
Patrick Cantlay $8,400 $9,700 $14,700 2.294 1.439 50.137 -0.101 0.391 0.114 -0.422 -0.004 164
Bryson DeChambeau $7,900 $10,000 $14,300 1.586 1.439 46.781 -0.088 -0.056 0.344 -0.22 -0.005 270
Anirban Lahiri $6,800 $7,700 $11,700 1.091 0.428 43.585 0.322 -0.432 -0.147 0.229 -0.007 405
Marc Leishman $7,800 $9,400 $14,200 1.96 1.634 36.848 0.174 0.079 -0.051 -0.232 -0.007 236
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,000 $8,800 $12,600 1.385 0.575 31.921 0.104 -0.085 0.157 -0.207 -0.008 402
Louis Oosthuizen $7,700 $9,800 $13,900 1.918 2.01 33.89 -0.213 0.122 0.097 -0.05 -0.011 254
Jason Kokrak $6,700 $7,300 NA 1.263 1.19 20.565 -0.356 0.369 -0.006 -0.058 -0.013 480
Bill Haas $6,900 $7,800 $12,000 1.513 1.308 8.022 0.099 -0.05 0.09 -0.197 -0.014 485
Alexander Levy $6,500 $7,700 $11,500 0.149 0.032 -7.841 -0.025 0 -0.042 0 -0.017 757
Adam Scott $7,600 $9,500 $14,200 2.117 1.359 11.664 -0.217 0.053 0.111 -0.047 -0.025 361
Russell Henley $6,700 $8,800 $12,200 1.555 1.197 38.566 0.217 -0.279 -0.158 0.117 -0.026 315
Russell Knox $7,100 $8,700 $12,200 1.444 0.731 66.36 -0.018 -0.114 -0.149 0.177 -0.026 295
Jason Day $9,000 $11,700 $15,900 2.811 3.196 39.911 -0.108 -0.082 -0.056 0.137 -0.027 171
Troy Merritt $6,600 $7,100 $11,600 0.71 -0.274 32.731 0.094 0.033 -0.053 -0.186 -0.028 506
Rory Mcilroy $11,000 $12,300 $17,400 2.83 2.469 52.853 0.226 -0.141 0.138 -0.352 -0.032 138
Jon Rahm $9,100 $11,100 $16,000 2.544 0.823 38.672 0.003 0.11 -0.099 -0.15 -0.034 195
Daniel Berger $7,600 $9,300 $13,100 1.78 0.182 25.073 0.065 -0.383 -0.033 0.208 -0.036 342
Luke List $7,100 $8,300 $12,200 1.613 0.123 31.646 -0.059 0.078 0.074 -0.249 -0.039 335
Chez Reavie $6,500 $7,400 $11,700 1.469 1.306 3.782 -0.247 -0.13 -0.092 0.311 -0.039 521
Chris Kirk $6,800 $8,000 NA 1.292 -0.388 12.772 -0.343 0.08 -0.013 0.118 -0.039 541
Beau Hossler $6,900 $8,500 $12,200 1.385 0 32.293 -0.053 -0.224 0.115 0 -0.04 413
Nick Watney $6,800 $7,600 $11,700 1.101 1.048 21.372 -0.405 0.291 0.189 -0.239 -0.041 518
Dustin Johnson $11,400 $12,600 $18,000 3.103 1.871 57.317 -0.263 0.051 -0.031 0.078 -0.041 131
Webb Simpson $7,700 $10,700 $14,000 1.913 1.564 41.83 -0.141 -0.151 -0.225 0.341 -0.044 245
Jhonattan Vegas $6,700 $7,400 $11,700 0.983 0.896 18.083 -0.162 0.012 0.16 -0.24 -0.058 571
Danny Willett $7,000 $7,400 $11,900 0.531 0.319 34.833 0.167 0.111 0.06 -0.572 -0.058 528
Jamie Lovemark $7,100 $8,200 $12,000 1.424 0.842 16.107 -0.143 -0.104 0.033 -0.029 -0.061 492
Sergio Garcia $8,500 $9,600 $14,600 2.115 0.788 29.136 -0.054 -0.302 0.022 0.087 -0.062 286
Jason Dufner $7,000 $8,600 $12,600 1.516 1.48 15.708 -0.262 -0.189 -0.113 0.309 -0.064 460
Jordan Spieth $10,700 $11,500 $17,300 2.759 2.277 20.911 0.136 -0.262 -0.109 -0.022 -0.064 279
Andy Sullivan $7,000 $7,900 $11,800 1.126 0.152 32.751 -0.13 -0.04 -0.091 0 -0.065 470
Chesson Hadley $7,300 $8,700 $12,200 1.036 0.301 14.202 -0.252 0.133 0.466 -0.615 -0.067 594
J.B. Holmes $7,000 $8,000 $12,200 1.537 1.264 19.041 -0.181 0.121 0.155 -0.368 -0.068 441
Emiliano Grillo $7,200 $8,200 $12,500 1.664 0.845 8.847 -0.134 -0.111 0.017 -0.05 -0.07 458
Davis Love III $6,200 $7,000 $10,400 -0.077 -0.557 -4.294 -0.06 -0.571 -0.218 0.568 -0.07 816
Shane Lowry $7,100 $8,100 $12,000 1.466 0.697 28.482 -0.195 -0.098 -0.226 0.207 -0.078 427
Brian Harman $7,400 $8,900 $12,700 1.446 1.383 27.747 0.076 -0.427 -0.015 0.052 -0.078 433
Tiger Woods $9,900 $11,300 $16,400 1.836 0.994 38.858 -0.056 -0.05 -0.317 0.096 -0.082 281
Keegan Bradley $7,500 $9,200 $12,700 1.587 1.839 26.896 0.158 -0.083 -0.095 -0.315 -0.084 390
Kevin Kisner $7,300 $8,500 $13,700 1.506 2.342 24.765 -0.102 -0.292 -0.101 0.152 -0.086 440
Gary Woodland $7,000 $8,900 $12,200 1.622 1.238 36.075 -0.179 0.041 -0.147 -0.062 -0.087 331
Andrew Landry $6,600 $7,000 $11,300 0.692 0 -1.325 -0.561 0.391 0 -0.236 -0.101 730
Jimmy Walker $6,900 $8,900 $12,200 1.504 1.74 5.788 -0.215 0.186 -0.171 -0.215 -0.104 532
Michael Kim $6,800 $7,500 $10,800 0.666 0 26.667 0.392 -0.456 -0.32 -0.077 -0.115 577
Tommy Fleetwood $9,300 $11,400 $15,800 2.388 0.515 64.054 -0.319 0.008 -0.161 0 -0.118 173
Ollie Schniederjans $7,000 $7,800 $12,000 1.211 0 13.19 -0.493 0.008 -0.075 0.062 -0.125 580
Cameron Smith $7,100 $7,800 $11,700 1.092 -0.381 13.88 -0.321 0.279 -0.264 -0.235 -0.135 594
Chris Wood $6,600 $7,900 $11,900 1.16 0.59 43.315 -0.237 -0.436 0.11 0 -0.141 436
Austin Cook $6,500 $7,700 $11,700 1.543 0 36.221 -0.231 -0.168 -0.427 0.245 -0.145 367
Hideki Matsuyama $8,800 $10,500 $15,500 2.347 2.716 19.237 0.077 -0.276 -0.105 -0.279 -0.146 333
Charles Howell III $7,200 $9,000 $11,900 1.589 0.271 27.012 -0.214 -0.017 -0.4 0.029 -0.151 395
Adam Hadwin $7,100 $8,400 $11,800 1.382 -1.21 15.349 -0.267 0.123 0.04 -0.532 -0.159 536
Ryan Moore $7,400 $9,000 $12,600 1.742 1.307 30.039 -0.324 0.148 -0.128 -0.364 -0.167 353
Alex Noren $8,600 $9,900 $14,900 1.845 0.605 47.519 -0.216 -0.356 -0.15 0.033 -0.172 261
Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,300 $9,700 $12,600 1.834 0.536 25.244 -0.194 -0.407 -0.01 -0.08 -0.173 369
Scott Piercy $6,900 $7,500 $11,500 1.071 1.17 3.702 -0.198 -0.199 -0.488 0.148 -0.184 653
Billy Horschel $6,900 $8,000 $12,100 1.301 1.007 26.919 -0.347 -0.198 -0.353 0.13 -0.192 493
Whee Kim $6,500 $7,200 $11,500 0.588 0 22.291 0.363 -0.214 -0.412 -0.51 -0.193 615
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $6,700 $9,000 $12,000 1.132 0.631 29.549 -0.174 -0.252 0.262 -0.635 -0.2 513
John Daly $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 -1.505 -1.062 -5.042 -0.231 0 0 -0.604 -0.209 875
Phil Mickelson $8,300 $10,400 $14,500 2.181 1.399 28.976 -0.155 -0.263 0.009 -0.54 -0.237 312
Ted Potter, Jr. $6,200 $7,100 $10,600 0.709 0.086 13.229 -0.158 -0.717 -0.203 0.051 -0.257 663
Pat Perez $6,900 $8,600 $12,200 1.595 1.124 16.235 -0.167 -0.128 -0.016 -0.724 -0.259 460
Brendan Steele $6,500 $8,700 $11,900 1.598 1.013 11.655 -0.507 -0.184 -0.219 -0.36 -0.317 492
Byeong Hun An $7,500 $9,000 $13,000 1.515 1.052 26.075 0.146 -0.695 -0.232 -0.678 -0.365 447
J.J. Spaun $6,400 $7,300 $11,500 0.998 0 19.541 -0.788 0.047 -0.589 -0.226 -0.389 597
Patton Kizzire $6,600 $7,000 $10,900 0.776 0.865 1.44 -0.391 -0.387 -0.453 -0.41 -0.41 702
Brice Garnett $6,300 $7,100 $10,900 0.417 0 -4.605 -0.416 -0.198 -0.86 -0.357 -0.458 794

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.