Searching for a Specialist: Puerto Rico Open
Welcome back to another specialist search.
Let’s start with a review of last week. There is no way to sugarcoat it. Last week was pretty bad for our specialists. Okay, you could sugarcoat it by stating that Jones and Kuchar both missed the cut on the number. Kooch is the king of the backdoor top 25, so he surely would have came through over the weekend. Tringale and Steele provided some fireworks, but fizzled to mediocrity on Sunday.
Sugarcoating aside, we can’t let a bad week get in the way of our search for a Puerto Rico Open specialist.
Our search this week will look at performance against Weak Fields, Par 72 tracks, and finish up with Long Course performance.
Here we go…
Weak Fields
Some golfers play down to their competition, but some just need a weaker field in order to shine.
We are looking for the latter, as we view performance in events with an OWGR strength of field rating of 250 or below, since the start of the 2013-14 season.
Based on past performance, this is easily the most correlated angle to Puerto Rico Open success this week, and the one we want to take the longest look at.
The Top 10 Weak Field Specialists are:
Boo Weekley (0.804 sg:weak vs. -0.045 sg:total)
D.H. Lee (-0.455 sg:weak vs. -1.304 sg:total)
William McGirt (1.214 sg:weak vs. 0.427 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (0.311 sg:weak vs. -0.454 sg:total)
David Toms (1.036 sg:weak vs. 0.368 sg:total)
Scott Brown (0.925 sg:weak vs. 0.267 sg:total)
John Daly (-0.719 sg:weak vs. -1.352 sg:total)
Tom Gillis (0.134 sg:weak vs. -0.476 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (0.204 sg:weak vs. -0.331 sg:total)
Tony Finau (1.184 sg:weak vs. 0.692 sg:total)
I’m not sure we want to count guys like D.H. Lee or John Daly considering their weak field performance is still below field average.
Scott Brown, William McGirt, and Boo Weekley are the three notables here because they all have at least 20 starts in their weak field sample and are still great specialists.
Tony Finau is another good one. In 12 weak field events, he’s gained at least 4 strokes over the field in eight of those! That translates into eight top 25s. Time to get back to full Finau-mode.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 72
Par 72 Courses
For the second week in a row, we have a par 72 course. That means birdie and eagle makers will be on their best behavior as long as the weather cooperates.
Golfers that can capitalize on the par 5s usually succeed on these courses. That doesn’t always mean long hitters though. Short and accurate hitters can also thrive on par 5s, since they have less blowup potential and easy par 5s are well, easy for everyone.
The top 10 remaining par 72 specialists:
John Daly (-0.67 sg:par72 vs. -1.352 sg:total)
Chad Collins (0.33 sg:par72 vs. -0.149 sg:total)
Scott Pinckney (0.271 sg:par72 vs. -0.192 sg:total)
Andres Gonzales (-0.106 sg:par72 vs. -0.532 sg:total)
Wes Roach (0.093 sg:par72 vs. -0.298 sg:total)
Jonathan Byrd (0.46 sg:par72 vs. 0.11 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (0.038 sg:par72 vs. -0.311 sg:total)
Johnson Wagner (0.227 sg:par72 vs. -0.084 sg:total)
Alex Prugh (-0.035 sg:par72 vs. -0.329 sg:total)
Tony Finau (0.976 sg:par72 vs. 0.692 sg:total)
There’s John Daly again! Let’s not be fooled, though. He sets such a low standard with his typical paly, that even when he’s a specialists, we still can’t rely on him.
Finau is the only golfer that shows up on both top-10 lists so far.
One interesting golfer to note here in William McGirt. Over his last 25 starts on par 72 courses he’s actually lost strokes to the field (for the week) in 15 of them. He’s in great form and this week’s field makes him still viable. Heck, he could even win still against this weak field. At the same time, he could be a good fade if you want a reason to pivot away from one of the high-priced, high-owned golfers.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 33
Long Courses
Just like Bay Hill last week, Coco Beach G&CC is another lengthy course. It stretches out past 7,500 yards.
This doesn’t mean we have to narrow our focus on bombers. It just means that in addition to bombing it off the tee, great long-iron play and/or great scrambling will be rewarded with success around here.
The Top 10 Long Course Specialists that remain are:
Scott Pinckney (0.868 sg:long vs. -0.192 sg:total)
Whee Kim (0.502 sg:long vs. -0.278 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (0.248 sg:long vs. -0.311 sg:total)
John Merrick (0.097 sg:long vs. -0.424 sg:total)
Chad Collins (0.311 sg:long vs. -0.149 sg:total)
Retief Goosen (0.441 sg:long vs. 0.075 sg:total)
Will MacKenzie (0.297 sg:long vs. 0.003 sg:total)
Seung-yul Noh (0.433 sg:long vs. 0.14 sg:total)
Freddie Jacobson (0.698 sg:long vs. 0.449 sg:total)
Steve Wheatcroft (0.071 sg:long vs. -0.145 sg:total)
Pinckney and Hadley both make their second appearance on a top-10 list.
Hadley is a past winner here while Pink-Knee finished T6 in his debut last year.
This is where we lost Mark Hubbard last week and also where we lose him again this week. He entered the Arnold Palmer Invite with a 12-for-13 record this season but went on to miss the cut. Don’t get suckered back in. He’s lost strokes to the field (for the week) in six of his eight starts on courses over 7,400 yards.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 16
Baseline Performance
This is the stage where we cut out the fat. Some golfers are just too far in a hole to begin with. Being a course specialist helps them, but they really need their A+++ game in order to really contend.
Most week’s we set our baseline SG:Total at 0.250 and remove anyone with less than that. This week, the average SGT of the entire field is < -0.300. So for this week, we will allow anyone with a positive SG:Total baseline.
Using that criteria, we can remove the following golfers:
Jhonattan Vegas
Steve Wheatcroft
Chad Collins
Scott Pinckney
Whee Kim
Chesson Hadley
Alex Prugh
John Merrick
Scott Stallings
D.A. Points
We should consider the names above to be GPP options only.
The Specialists
Tony Finau
Will MacKenzie
Retief Goosen
Freddie Jacobson
Seung-yul Noh
Jon Curran
This week’s specialist is Tony Finau! What a change of events. After fading Finau for most of the year due to various angles, he pulls a complete 180 on us, and becomes the specialist.
Goosen and Finau are both making their tournament debut, but overall this list is 8-for-8 at Coco Beach, including five top 25s.
If you’re like me, you will attempt to roster all six of these golfers in the same lineup. Unfortunately, pricing is so crazy that we are $4,000 over the salary-cap. It’s still a good idea to built various lineups with different pieces from this specialist list.
It’s important to remember that specialists aren’t the end-all, be-all. Especially in a field as weak as this one. Someone like Graham DeLaet has a specialist rating of -0.091, so we can basically expect his typical SG:Total output. That baseline SGT just happens to be #1 in the field, so he’s a great play, regardless of specialist status. Keep that in mind as you view the specialist spreadsheet.
Check out the full Specialist Table for more detailed data. You can sort and filter to your heart’s desire. Best of luck in all your matchups this week.