Searching for a Specialist: Puerto Rico Open

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Welcome to another week of specialist searching.

Starting off with the weekly recap, we had four specialists last week at the API. They secured finishes of T7, T23, T41, and MC. Kevin Na apparently hates getting tagged as a specialist as he disappointed for a second straight week, but the other three certainly pulled their weight.

Onto the next week for the Puerto Rico Open where last year’s specialist (Tony Finau) took home the hardware. The course doesn’t have ShotLink utilized but we can still come up with a few angles to look at:

The key areas are Performance on Slow Greens, Performance in the Wind, Performance against Weak Fields, and Performance on Less-than-Driver Courses.

Here we go …

Slow Greens

Last week we had greens that were nearly as quick as they come. It will be quite the opposite this week as the greens typically run between 10.5 and 11 feet on the stimpmeter.

That’s really not too different from your local country club, most likely.

Sometimes this helps out the typically poor putters because they can be more aggressive on their putts without the fear of having to make a five footer on the way back. At the same time, elite putters can sometimes use this to their benefit and knock in a few extra putts.

Let’s see who has a good track record on these sloth greens.

The Top 10 Slow Green Specialists are:

Harold Varner III (1.384 sg:slow greens vs. 0.686 sg:total)
Tim Wilkinson (1.008 sg:slow greens vs. 0.311 sg:total)
Zac Blair (1.305 sg:slow greens vs. 0.643 sg:total)
Scott Brown (1.297 sg:slow greens vs. 0.682 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (0.882 sg:slow greens vs. 0.298 sg:total)
Ben Curtis (-0.35 sg:slow greens vs. -0.931 sg:total)
Steven Bowditch (0.143 sg:slow greens vs. -0.415 sg:total)
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano (0.706 sg:slow greens vs. 0.164 sg:total)
Hunter Mahan (1.192 sg:slow greens vs. 0.683 sg:total)
Will MacKenzie (0.85 sg:slow greens vs. 0.382 sg:total)

HV3 is an interesting name here. He is first on the list above and will also be near the top on another angle we will look at later. However, he’s near the bottom in one very important angle, so that leaves us asking some questions. More on that later.

The five names on the bottom of the Slow Green list include Cameron Tringale, Angel Cabrera, Steve Wheatcroft, Luke List, and Seung-yul Noh.

Luke List is the interesting name from the negative list above as he will be very popular this week. Could he be worth fading this week?

Windy Rounds

The current forecast calls for an average wind speed of 10 mph throughout the tournament.

That is definitely worth monitoring since this event is right on the coast and not very protected by the winds.

If the forecast starts to dip in terms of projected winds this week, maybe give this angle less weight. However, it almost always becomes a factor for at least a round or two at Coco Beach G&CC.

The 10 Wind Specialists:

Alex Cejka (1.54 sg:wind vs. 0.722 sg:total)
Tyler Aldridge (0.931 sg:wind vs. 0.179 sg:total)
Cameron Tringale (1.455 sg:wind vs. 0.957 sg:total)
Whee Kim (0.861 sg:wind vs. 0.395 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (0.725 sg:wind vs. 0.263 sg:total)
George McNeill (1.354 sg:wind vs. 0.902 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (0.86 sg:wind vs. 0.433 sg:total)
Ricky Barnes (0.858 sg:wind vs. 0.436 sg:total)
Max Homa (-0.206 sg:wind vs. -0.59 sg:total)
John Peterson (0.709 sg:wind vs. 0.337 sg:total)

We have three past PR Open champions on this list (Cejka, Hadley, McNeill).

John Peterson is one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR so it’s no surprise to see him able to handle the wind.

On the wrong side of this equation is Harold Varner III. I just mentioned above that he grades out very well for two of the angles, but very poorly for one (WIND). In 40 tracked rounds played in winds of 14+ mph, HV3 has lost two or more strokes to the field in 14 of those! Of golfers in the field with at least 25 tracked rounds, only Matt Every has a worse ratio.

Weak Field Events

Every golfer on the PGA TOUR was a standout performer when they were growing up. Now that they’ve reached the biggest stage, some are less consistent than others.

This is a week where those less-consistent golfers get to face off against each other.

Some will thrive in these events due to the lack of pressure or star power. Sometimes it’s just about the type of courses that are played in the weaker field events.

A lot of the weaker field courses are more resort-style layouts that are catered to the every day member or vacationer. Of course they toughen them up a bit before the pros come, but Coco Beach G&CC is not growing out their rough to six inches like Bay Hill in preparation of this event.

The Top 10 Weak Field Specialists:

Chris Kirk (2.063 sg:weak vs. 1.301 sg:total)
Harold Varner III (1.39 sg:weak vs. 0.686 sg:total)
Ryan Blaum (1.623 sg:weak vs. 0.971 sg:total)
Ben Curtis (-0.403 sg:weak vs. -0.931 sg:total)
Brett Stegmaier (0.837 sg:weak vs. 0.313 sg:total)
Scott Brown (1.16 sg:weak vs. 0.682 sg:total)
Boo Weekley (0.839 sg:weak vs. 0.423 sg:total)
Willy Wilcox (1.078 sg:weak vs. 0.712 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (0.792 sg:weak vs. 0.433 sg:total)
Ryo Ishikawa (0.748 sg:weak vs. 0.401 sg:total)

Chris Kirk is a remarkable 3/4 strokes better per round when facing weaker competition. This number is adjusted for strength of the field, so he actually is playing THAT much better in these type of events.

On the flip side, someone like Hunter Mahan has been trying to use these weak field events to regain some form but it’s just not happening for him.

Less-than-Driver Courses

Coco Beach Golf & CC can stretch out to 7,500 yards but a lot of that is in the par 5s and long par 3s.

There are plenty of hazards on the par 4s which leads a lot of golfers to clubbing down on some of these holes.

That is why despite the length of this week’s layout, the less-than-driver angle has the second highest correlation to success in previous Puerto Rico Opens (behind Wind Performance).

The 10 LT Driver Specialists:

Tyler Aldridge (1.146 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.179 sg:total)
Wesley Bryan (2.038 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.186 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (1.316 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.519 sg:total)
Sam Saunders (0.79 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.029 sg:total)
Steven Alker (0.856 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.152 sg:total)
Whee Kim (0.979 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.395 sg:total)
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano (0.743 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.164 sg:total)
Matt Every (0.089 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.468 sg:total)
Willy Wilcox (1.221 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.712 sg:total)
Tom Hoge (0.787 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.301 sg:total)

Sam Saunders improves by 3/4 of a stroke on less-than-driver layouts. It would be a great story if he found some momentum after last week’s big event and came down to Puerto Rico and won one for Arnie.

As you can see above, some newer names like Wes Bryan are starting to get enough PGA TOUR rounds under their belt, so we can start to classify them. So far, Bryan has feasted on courses that let him club down on the tee box.

Baseline Performance

The goal of this search is to find some golfers with a good course fit. At the same time, we don’t want to rely on golfers that need the week of their lives just to crack the top 25.

GPP-Only Options:

Sam Saunders
Trevor Immelman

Saunders has some legitimate GPP value while Immelman is a true long shot. While the course may fit him, that’s not saying much at this stage in his career.

The Specialists

Scott Brown
Chris Kirk
Graeme McDowell
Graham DeLaet

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Our specialist this week is Scott Brown!

We have a good mix of specialists that have solid course history (Brown, DeLaet) and first-timers (Kirk, McDowell).

Brown has the lowest baseline of the four specialists, but the highest specialist rating. When you look at the salaries of these golfers on DraftKings and FanDuel, Chris Kirk appears to be the best bang for your buck as Brown’s course history is already factored into his salary.

The Anti-Specialists

Looking for the opposite of our specialists, these golfers have negative numbers in all four angles!

Angel Cabrera
K.J. Choi
Tyrone Van Aswegen
Jonas Blixt
John Merrick
Hiroshi Iwata

It’s an easy decision for me to fade all six of these golfers.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),

Form looks at the performance over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro).

Golfer DK FD SG:Total Form Slow Greens Weak Field Windy Rounds LT Driver Specialist Rating
Tyler Aldridge $6,300 $4,500 0.179 -0.66 0 0.245 0.753 0.967 0.491
Scott Brown $9,800 $8,100 0.703 0.893 0.615 0.478 0.081 0.394 0.392
Sam Saunders $7,800 $5,700 0.029 0.243 0.349 0.288 0.055 0.762 0.363
Chris Kirk $9,100 $8,300 1.321 1.055 0.036 0.763 0.293 0.243 0.334
Ben Curtis $5,900 $4,500 -0.931 0 0.581 0.528 0.229 -0.017 0.33
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano $6,100 $4,600 0.164 -0.376 0.542 0.334 -0.225 0.58 0.308
Graeme McDowell $10,300 $9,700 1.293 1.773 0.337 0.232 0.271 0.267 0.277
Boo Weekley $7,300 $5,700 0.426 0.077 0.436 0.416 0.348 -0.18 0.255
Whee Kim $6,200 $6,900 0.394 0.283 -0.275 0.234 0.467 0.585 0.253
Nick Taylor $7,200 $6,200 0.432 0.882 0.298 0.36 0.427 -0.076 0.252
Steven Alker $5,900 $4,500 0.151 -0.095 0 0.246 0 0.704 0.237
Chesson Hadley $7,600 $5,900 0.263 0 0.24 -0.089 0.462 0.332 0.237
Graham DeLaet $10,600 $9,400 1.23 2.066 0.297 0.11 0.24 0.283 0.233
Trevor Immelman $6,000 $4,500 -0.634 -0.642 0.37 0.101 0.175 0.253 0.225
Max Homa $6,500 $4,500 -0.59 -1.578 0.362 0.208 0.384 -0.068 0.221
Willy Wilcox $7,900 $5,500 0.712 -2.336 -0.243 0.366 0.206 0.509 0.209
John Peterson $7,200 $6,000 0.337 0.809 0.41 0.114 0.371 -0.102 0.198
Brett Stegmaier $6,500 $4,900 0.313 -0.92 -0.203 0.524 0.158 0.283 0.19
Ricky Barnes $7,000 $5,700 0.436 -0.092 -0.002 0.066 0.422 0.249 0.184
Harold Varner III $7,300 $5,900 0.654 -0.072 0.699 0.705 -0.881 0.211 0.183
Will MacKenzie $7,100 $6,300 0.382 -0.06 0.468 0.205 0.045 -0.011 0.177
Tim Wilkinson $7,100 $5,000 0.311 1.363 0.697 0.046 -0.005 -0.054 0.171
Stuart Appleby $5,900 $4,500 0.518 -0.06 -0.363 -0.065 0.294 0.797 0.166
Ryan Blaum $7,200 $6,900 0.968 0.497 0 0.652 0 0 0.163
Ryo Ishikawa $7,800 $6,800 0.4 0.415 -0.145 0.347 0.136 0.294 0.158
George McNeill $6,400 $6,700 0.902 -0.739 0.159 -0.15 0.451 0.04 0.125
Wesley Bryan $10,800 $8,900 1.278 1.711 0 -0.386 0 0.852 0.116
Scott Stallings $8,100 $7,600 0.298 1.61 0.584 0.331 -0.099 -0.405 0.103
Alex Cejka $8,900 $6,200 0.721 0.077 -0.136 0.029 0.819 -0.305 0.102
Bryce Molder $6,800 $7,100 0.696 -0.088 0.346 0.036 -0.19 0.209 0.1
Freddie Jacobson $6,100 $7,100 0.837 -2.257 0.176 0.234 0.098 -0.137 0.093
Tom Hoge $5,900 $4,800 0.3 1.456 -0.247 0.201 -0.103 0.487 0.085
David Hearn $8,400 $6,300 0.928 0.959 -0.141 0.066 0.008 0.405 0.084
Cameron Percy $8,000 $5,400 0.492 0.683 0.173 0.181 -0.037 -0.013 0.076
Michael Bradley $5,900 $5,400 -0.818 0 0 0.289 0 0 0.072
Mark Hubbard $6,200 $5,300 0.128 -0.539 0.236 0.059 0.17 -0.189 0.069
Greg Owen $6,900 $5,400 0.095 1.579 0.127 0.162 -0.061 0.047 0.069
Ken Duke $5,900 $5,000 0.033 0.311 0.135 0.246 -0.071 -0.124 0.047
Steven Bowditch $6,200 $4,500 -0.382 -1.447 0.558 0.328 -0.327 -0.396 0.041
Bobby Wyatt $6,200 $4,500 -0.416 -1.203 0 0.136 0 0 0.034
Zac Blair $6,400 $6,300 0.642 1.082 0.663 -0.035 -0.313 -0.184 0.033
Fabian Gomez $7,400 $8,800 0.437 -0.188 0.343 0.19 -0.475 0.048 0.027
Dicky Pride $6,200 $4,600 -0.448 0 0.111 0.043 0 -0.056 0.025
Zack Sucher $6,600 $4,500 -0.905 -1.453 0 0.097 0 0 0.024
Matt Every $6,300 $4,600 -0.486 -3.027 0.319 -0.09 -0.726 0.556 0.015
Andres Gonzales $7,100 $4,600 0.136 0.589 0.397 0.267 -0.398 -0.214 0.013
Brendon de Jonge $6,400 $5,600 0.687 -1.88 -0.007 0.044 -0.125 0.114 0.007
Steve Wheatcroft $6,100 $4,700 0.366 -2.153 -0.654 0.151 0.09 0.438 0.006
Fabrizio Zanotti $9,500 $7,200 1.32 1.584 0 0 0 0 0
Seamus Power $7,300 $7,100 1.09 1.381 0 0 0 0 0
J.T. Poston $8,600 $6,500 0.886 1.36 0 0 0 0 0
J.J. Spaun $8,200 $8,000 0.87 1.512 0 0 0 0 0
Rafael Campos $6,100 $4,900 0.831 0 0 0 0 0 0
Andrew Johnston $7,900 $6,300 0.602 -0.821 0 0 0 0 0
Dominic Bozzelli $8,000 $7,200 0.554 1.336 0 0 0 0 0
Brandon Hagy $8,300 $5,400 0.515 0.71 0 0 0 0 0
Richy Werenski $7,000 $4,600 0.495 1.202 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Brehm $5,900 $5,300 0.47 0.396 0 0 0 0 0
Thorbjorn Olesen $7,700 $6,700 0.319 0.586 0 0 0 0 0
Robby Shelton $7,000 $4,500 0.155 0 0 0 0 0 0
Joel Dahmen $6,000 $4,600 0.104 0.5 0 0 0 0 0
Xander Schauffele $6,000 $4,500 0.019 -0.771 0 0 0 0 0
Wade Binfield $6,000 $4,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Robert Calvesbert $6,000 $4,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
William Cannon $6,100 $4,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Neil Johnson $6,100 $4,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hugo Leon $6,100 $4,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chris Nido $6,200 $4,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Peter Williamson $6,000 $4,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sebastian Munoz $6,000 $4,500 -0.135 -0.553 0 0 0 0 0
Brett Drewitt $6,600 $4,500 -0.221 -0.61 0 0 0 0 0
Kurt Kitayama $6,600 $4,500 -0.224 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rich Berberian, Jr. $5,900 $4,500 -0.263 0.136 0 0 0 0 0
Nicholas Lindheim $6,000 $4,500 -0.274 -1.062 0 0 0 0 0
Brian Campbell $6,900 $4,500 -0.309 -0.047 0 0 0 0 0
Peter Uihlein $10,100 $7,200 -0.396 2.023 0 0 0 0 0
Julian Etulain $7,000 $4,700 -0.467 0.358 0 0 0 0 0
Marcelo Rozo $6,300 $4,500 -1.109 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rick Lamb $6,500 $4,600 -1.326 -0.907 0 0 0 0 0
Jay McLuen $5,900 $4,500 -2.475 0 0 0 0 0 0
Edward Figueroa $6,300 $4,500 -3.269 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alan Morin $6,000 $4,500 -5.197 -4.774 0 0 0 0 0
Bill Lunde $5,900 $4,500 -0.532 0 0 -0.018 0 0 -0.005
Retief Goosen $6,200 $6,200 0.621 -2.16 0.138 -0.188 0.229 -0.201 -0.005
Robert Garrigus $7,500 $6,200 0.455 1.021 0.255 -0.002 -0.208 -0.073 -0.007
Trey Mullinax $6,500 $5,000 0.612 0.902 0 -0.032 0 0 -0.008
Jonathan Byrd $6,200 $5,500 0.438 0 -0.031 0.041 -0.242 0.181 -0.013
Mark Anderson $6,700 $4,500 -0.797 0.247 0 -0.061 0 0 -0.015
Ian Poulter $9,600 $8,600 1.086 1.441 0 0 -0.201 0.128 -0.018
Danny Lee $8,700 $9,000 0.955 0.107 -0.326 0.127 -0.049 0.157 -0.023
Shawn Stefani $6,200 $5,300 0.86 0.613 0.204 0.025 -0.066 -0.255 -0.023
Cameron Tringale $7,600 $7,400 0.957 0.091 -0.991 0.008 0.498 0.377 -0.027
Brad Fritsch $7,100 $4,900 0.263 0.721 -0.097 -0.025 0 0 -0.031
Miguel Angel Carballo $6,600 $4,500 -0.507 -1.062 -0.064 -0.075 0 0 -0.035
Jonathan Randolph $6,800 $4,500 -0.319 -0.453 0 -0.166 0 0 -0.042
Andres Romero $6,900 $5,500 0.329 0 -0.108 0.249 -0.531 0.197 -0.048
Chris Stroud $7,500 $5,900 0.699 0.453 -0.279 -0.015 -0.009 0.103 -0.05
Carl Pettersson $6,100 $5,000 0.205 -0.991 -0.426 0.324 -0.217 0.073 -0.061
Michael Thompson $6,400 $4,700 0.4 0.253 0.088 -0.254 0.276 -0.356 -0.062
Ryan Armour $6,700 $4,900 -0.076 0.688 0 -0.115 0 -0.147 -0.065
Kyle Reifers $6,100 $7,100 0.681 -0.541 0.309 -0.358 0.02 -0.297 -0.082
Mark Wilson $6,100 $4,700 0.093 0.369 -0.247 -0.115 -0.187 0.214 -0.084
J.J. Henry $6,800 $5,400 0.015 0.032 -0.168 0.297 -0.425 -0.047 -0.086
S.J. Park $6,000 $4,600 -0.155 0 0 0 0 -0.349 -0.087
Spencer Levin $6,300 $4,600 0.444 -0.983 -0.063 0.041 -0.192 -0.145 -0.09
Chad Collins $7,200 $5,900 0.24 -0.001 0.001 0.113 -0.155 -0.319 -0.09
Camilo Villegas $7,700 $6,100 0.644 0.277 -0.544 0.298 -0.118 -0.029 -0.098
Y.E. Yang $6,400 $4,800 -0.092 0.601 0.183 -0.362 0.016 -0.23 -0.098
Steve Marino $6,700 $5,400 0.086 -0.641 0.089 0.102 -0.261 -0.332 -0.101
Matt Jones $9,300 $5,700 0.95 1.842 -0.205 -0.246 0.029 0.002 -0.105
John Senden $7,100 $5,600 1.04 -0.406 -0.616 -0.244 0.17 0.24 -0.112
Bryson DeChambeau $7,000 $7,600 0.689 0.104 0 -0.528 0 0.031 -0.124
Rory Sabbatini $7,400 $5,400 0.521 1.251 -0.136 -0.251 0.16 -0.272 -0.125
Tag Ridings $6,700 $4,700 -0.494 -0.089 -0.494 -0.016 0 0 -0.127
Hiroshi Iwata $6,700 $4,900 0.25 -1.743 -0.202 -0.11 -0.114 -0.086 -0.128
Sung Kang $7,500 $5,500 0.826 1.085 0.158 -0.516 -0.117 -0.051 -0.132
Kevin Tway $6,900 $4,500 -0.453 -0.455 -0.324 -0.317 0 0 -0.16
John Merrick $6,600 $4,500 0.053 -4.341 -0.12 -0.041 -0.137 -0.408 -0.177
Martin Flores $6,800 $5,700 0.67 0.794 -0.445 -0.359 0.114 -0.055 -0.186
Hunter Mahan $6,800 $7,800 0.682 0.095 0.509 -0.911 0.1 -0.53 -0.208
Jonas Blixt $7,400 $6,400 0.606 1.018 -0.42 -0.11 -0.185 -0.145 -0.215
Tyrone Van Aswegen $8,200 $5,900 0.247 0.279 -0.324 -0.243 -0.015 -0.318 -0.225
Ben Crane $6,500 $5,700 0.441 0.189 -0.342 0.145 -0.331 -0.382 -0.227
Seung-Yul Noh $8,100 $7,600 0.73 1.06 -0.624 -0.209 -0.195 0.048 -0.245
Luke List $9,900 $8,600 1.249 1.196 -0.642 0.065 -0.395 -0.014 -0.246
K.J. Choi $7,200 $6,100 0.678 0.082 -0.044 -0.665 -0.363 -0.078 -0.287
D.A. Points $6,900 $4,800 -0.12 0.986 -0.505 -0.126 -0.853 0.178 -0.326
Angel Cabrera $6,200 $5,800 0.264 -0.109 -0.711 -0.506 -0.094 -0.507 -0.454

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.