Searching for a Specialist: QL National
Welcome back for another edition of the specialist search.
Doing a quick recap of last week, we had four disappointments while Steele, Horschel, and Lingmerth provided a nice spark. Overall, a disappointing week for the specialists.
Last week a few comments asked about the negative specialists and how they should be treated. Since we had so many rain delays last week I had some time to check it out. In short, they matter a lot! Here is what the data shows:
I looked at all golfers that had a negative number in all angles (anti-specialists) for any given week and found only 7% of them posted top 10s. That is less than half the rate of all positive specialists (18%). The top-20 rate showed a similar decline. Anti-Specialists recorded top 20s just 17 percent of the time while Positive Specialists earned top 20s in 37 percent of starts.
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Each week we crown someone THEE specialist, so I also looked at stats for what would have been THEE anti-specialist of the week. Of the 27 golfers that were anti-specialists, only one found a top 10 (4%). Meanwhile 28 percent of top positive specialists found top 10s. Going down the line, the numbers were ugly across the board for the top anti-specialist each week. They found top 20s just 11 percent of the time, top 30s in just 15 percent of their starts and missed the cut 54 percent of the time.
TL;DR Version: Fading golfers that have negative numbers in all of the chosen angles on any given week is a profitable strategy. They will find their share of cuts made, but they rarely find a top-heavy finish.
I will include a weekly anti-specialist list from now on. Thanks for the great idea, rjgboom!
This week we are keeping it VERY simple. There were six angles I took a hard look at, four of them showed promise but two of them stood out way above the rest, so I will focus on those: Driver-Heavy Courses and Bentgrass Greens.
Here we go…
Driver-Heavy Courses
Congressional Country Club is a beast of a track that stretches out pat 7,550 yards. We often look at courses that force you to club down off the tee, but this is the opposite. This week golfers will have plenty of opportunity to gain ground with the big stick.
This angle favors bombers, but accurate hitters who are good with their mid-to-long irons can also be very good on these type of courses.
The Top 10 Driver-Heavy Specialists are:
Hudson Swafford (0.821 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.091 sg:total)
Michael Kim (0.524 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.19 sg:total)
Greg Owen (0.245 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.409 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (1.799 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.161 sg:total)
Tyrone Van Aswegen (0.42 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.213 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (0.568 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.025 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (0.704 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.238 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (0.11 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.316 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (0.192 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.213 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (0.335 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.063 sg:total)
Seeing Fowler at more than half a stroke better on driver-heavy courses is very appealing.
Swafford is nearly 3/4 of a shot better per round when he plays on driver-heavy layouts.
On the flip side we have Blayne Barber. In 13 starts on driver-heavy courses he’s never finished better than 45th place. A top 25 by Barber this week would be very surprising.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 47
Bentgrass Greens
Golfers that didn’t grow up on bermuda often find themselves attracted to the bentgrass events. It’s takes one more variable out of the putt equation, so less skillful putters can often show up and survive on bentgrass.
The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists remaining:
Ernie Els (0.416 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.069 sg:total)
Tony Finau (1.159 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.741 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (1.564 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.161 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (0.67 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.301 sg:total)
Russell Henley (0.58 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.23 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (0.12 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.213 sg:total)
Robert Garrigus (0.151 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.149 sg:total)
Tyrone Van Aswegen (0.082 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.213 sg:total)
Greg Owen (-0.179 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.409 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (0.219 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.025 sg:total)
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We’ve got a few repeats when it comes to our top-10 lists: Rickie Fowler, Kyle Stanley, Tyrone van Aswegen, Greg Owen, and Billy Hurley III.
Finau has made his way into this article many times as a bermuda-fade, but not this week! He’s posted top 25s in 9-of-18 starts on bentgrass greens.
On the negative side we have Lucas Glover. He’s a bad putter on ALL surfaces, but even more so on bentgrass since he grew up in bermuda country. Over his last 20 starts on bentgrass he’s posted ZERO, yup zero, top 25s. He sports a pair of top 15s at Congressional but they were in 2007 and 2009 when the greens were poa annua. You could say he’s due for a good week on bentgrass, but I will play the percentages and fade with ease.
Another disappointment is Patrick Rodgers. I always look for a reason to get on board and his driver-heavy stats are appealing. However, he owns just one top 25 in 18 starts on bentgrass. I think he’ll figure this out as he matures as a TOUR player, but for now I have to limit my exposure.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 16
Baseline Performance
Using our first baseline filter, we can eliminate golfers that have lost strokes to the field over the last 10 weeks of stroke-play events (Current Form):
Tyrone Van Aswegen
Billy Hurley III
Vijay Singh
Ernie Els
Greg Owen
Andres Gonzales
Billy Hurley III is an interesting name here. BH3 is a local and sports top 10s in his last two visits to Congressional. He’s a great GPP play this week.
The second baseline filter is long-term strokes gained per round. If a golfer if losing strokes to the field, we move them to GPP status. This week there are three that fit the bill:
Tim Wilkinson
Robert Garrigus
Kyle Stanley
The Specialists
Rickie Fowler
Hudson Swafford
Russell Henley
Tony Finau
Adam Hadwin
Chez Reavie
Tom Hoge
Our specialist this week is Rickie Fowler.
Anytime we see a specialist with this much cachet we have to take serious notice. Despite three straight missed cuts, he’s still positive in the form category thanks to a T4 at the Wells Fargo and not really imploding during his MCs. There is a big difference between missing the cut by a few strokes versus finishing DFL.
I’ve been waiting on a Swafford win for a few years and now he makes his debut as a specialist. Could this finally be the week?
There is nothing alarming about any of the other specialists, so I would proceed with confidence on all of them this week.
The Anti-Specialists
If you skipped right over the introduction this week, let me explain this section. The golfers below are negative in both angles this week. Basically the exact opposite of our specialists.
The list is quite lengthy this week since we have just two angles to look at, but it’s probably a good idea to fade or limit your exposure to the golfers below:
Blayne Barber, Jason Kokrak, Stuart Appleby, Derek Fathauer, Will MacKenzie, Seung-Yul Noh, Jason Gore, Rory Sabbatini, Erik Compton, Mark Hubbard, Chesson Hadley, Bill Haas, Nick Taylor, Francesco Molinari, Aaron Baddeley, Zac Blair, Brendan Steele, Michael Thompson, Sean O’Hair, Daniel Summerhays, Whee Kim, Charley Hoffman, Matt Jones, George McNeill, Jamie Lovemark, Gary Woodland, Morgan Hoffmann, Ryan Palmer, Keegan Bradley
You may notice a past champ at Congressional on the list, Bill Haas. It’s worth noting that Haas gained nearly 10 strokes with his putter the week of his 2013 win at Congressional. Considering he’s been outside the top 140 in strokes gained putting over the past two seasons, I don’t want to bank on a repeat of that.
There are some other big names in this list including Charley Hoffman, Gary Woodland, Daniel Summerhays, Ryan Palmer, Brendan Steele, and Francesco Molinari. Some of these golfers will find find a way to finish well this week, but it won’t be due to great course fit.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle. The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2013-14), Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained.
| Golfer | DK | SG:Total | Form | Bentgrass | Driver-Heavy | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickie Fowler | $12,000 | 1.161 | 0.45 | 0.403 | 0.638 | 0.521 |
| Tyrone Van Aswegen | $5,800 | -0.213 | -0.051 | 0.294 | 0.632 | 0.463 |
| Greg Owen | $5,400 | -0.409 | -0.72 | 0.229 | 0.654 | 0.442 |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,000 | 0.091 | 0.106 | 0.067 | 0.73 | 0.398 |
| Steve Marino | $5,500 | -0.37 | -1.233 | 0.783 | 0 | 0.391 |
| Ernie Els | $5,700 | -0.069 | -0.173 | 0.485 | 0.268 | 0.377 |
| Kyle Stanley | $5,300 | -0.213 | 0.046 | 0.333 | 0.406 | 0.369 |
| Billy Hurley III | $6,400 | 0.025 | -0.054 | 0.194 | 0.543 | 0.368 |
| Russell Henley | $9,000 | 0.23 | 0.739 | 0.35 | 0.368 | 0.359 |
| Michael Kim | $5,800 | -0.19 | 0.11 | 0 | 0.714 | 0.357 |
| Tony Finau | $8,500 | 0.741 | 0.777 | 0.418 | 0.251 | 0.335 |
| Bud Cauley | $6,100 | 0.138 | 0.559 | 0.623 | 0 | 0.312 |
| Adam Hadwin | $7,500 | 0.301 | 0.859 | 0.369 | 0.022 | 0.196 |
| Robert Garrigus | $8,000 | -0.149 | 0.907 | 0.301 | 0.021 | 0.161 |
| Chez Reavie | $6,700 | 0.228 | 0.069 | 0.07 | 0.194 | 0.132 |
| Tim Wilkinson | $6,000 | -0.121 | 0.853 | 0.131 | 0.124 | 0.127 |
| Tom Hoge | $6,500 | 0.1 | 0.501 | 0.188 | 0.05 | 0.119 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $6,900 | 0.238 | -0.417 | -0.242 | 0.466 | 0.112 |
| Hiroshi Iwata | $5,200 | -0.187 | -0.738 | 0.215 | 0 | 0.107 |
| Scott Pinckney | $5,500 | -0.185 | -0.367 | 0.449 | -0.234 | 0.107 |
| Steve Wheatcroft | $5,500 | -0.187 | -0.779 | -0.018 | 0.206 | 0.094 |
| Andres Gonzales | $5,100 | -0.531 | -0.778 | 0.04 | 0.131 | 0.085 |
| Ben Crane | $6,200 | -0.161 | 0.611 | -0.021 | 0.175 | 0.077 |
| Webb Simpson | $8,700 | 0.701 | 0.68 | -0.119 | 0.273 | 0.077 |
| Vijay Singh | $6,000 | 0.065 | -0.068 | 0.061 | 0.086 | 0.074 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $6,800 | 0.074 | 0.719 | 0.247 | -0.114 | 0.067 |
| Rod Pampling | $5,400 | -0.294 | -0.185 | 0.119 | 0 | 0.059 |
| Jim Furyk | $11,300 | 1.643 | 0.884 | 0.189 | -0.078 | 0.056 |
| Robert Streb | $6,600 | 0.569 | -0.094 | -0.051 | 0.157 | 0.053 |
| Brendon de Jonge | $5,300 | 0.161 | -0.643 | 0.133 | -0.036 | 0.049 |
| Marc Leishman | $10,900 | 0.811 | 1.077 | 0.283 | -0.191 | 0.046 |
| Carl Pettersson | $5,200 | -0.066 | -2.391 | 0.099 | -0.007 | 0.046 |
| Ricky Barnes | $6,200 | -0.012 | 0.71 | -0.119 | 0.199 | 0.04 |
| Carlos Ortiz | $5,100 | -0.283 | -1.393 | -0.315 | 0.39 | 0.037 |
| Scott Stallings | $6,500 | -0.316 | 0.61 | -0.359 | 0.426 | 0.033 |
| John Huh | $6,300 | -0.019 | -1.103 | -0.028 | 0.082 | 0.027 |
| Shawn Stefani | $7,000 | 0.244 | 0.24 | 0.105 | -0.079 | 0.013 |
| David Hearn | $7,400 | 0.344 | 0.91 | 0.168 | -0.162 | 0.003 |
| Arjun Atwal | $5,100 | -0.373 | 0.086 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Oppenheim | $5,300 | -0.244 | 0.227 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Aldridge | $5,200 | -0.182 | 0.119 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wesley Bryan | $7,100 | -0.164 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Piller | $6,400 | -0.086 | 0.758 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Stegmaier | $5,900 | -0.055 | -0.294 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Varner III | $7,100 | 0.189 | 0.596 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sung Kang | $6,000 | 0.291 | 0.143 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bronson Burgoon | $5,600 | 0.312 | 0.403 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Si Woo Kim | $6,100 | 0.323 | -0.025 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Smylie Kaufman | $6,700 | 0.377 | -1.115 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patton Kizzire | $6,700 | 0.438 | -0.382 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byeong Hun An | $9,600 | 0.496 | 0.814 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke List | $5,800 | 0.565 | 0.547 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $8,800 | 0.612 | 0.793 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Niebrugge | $6,500 | 0.626 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Rahm | $7,300 | 1.055 | 1.587 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Kirk | $7,800 | 0.571 | 0.991 | -0.085 | 0.07 | -0.007 |
| Charles Howell III | $8,200 | 0.733 | 0.779 | -0.052 | 0.011 | -0.021 |
| Jim Herman | $5,600 | -0.003 | -1.097 | -0.108 | 0.066 | -0.021 |
| Chris Stroud | $6,600 | 0.249 | -0.279 | 0.367 | -0.411 | -0.022 |
| Peter Malnati | $5,300 | -0.444 | -1.175 | 0 | -0.063 | -0.032 |
| Jeff Overton | $5,400 | 0.053 | -1.471 | -0.096 | 0.024 | -0.036 |
| Roberto Castro | $8,600 | -0.063 | 0.924 | -0.479 | 0.398 | -0.041 |
| Kevin Streelman | $8,100 | 0.167 | 0.524 | -0.203 | 0.117 | -0.043 |
| Luke Guthrie | $6,600 | 0.041 | -0.384 | -0.106 | 0.005 | -0.051 |
| Chad Collins | $5,700 | -0.098 | 0 | -0.128 | 0.019 | -0.054 |
| Keegan Bradley | $8,000 | 0.764 | 0.597 | -0.044 | -0.08 | -0.062 |
| Camilo Villegas | $5,700 | 0.083 | -0.552 | -0.19 | 0.066 | -0.062 |
| James Hahn | $6,900 | 0.003 | 0.82 | -0.168 | 0.03 | -0.069 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,200 | -0.032 | -1.18 | -0.211 | 0.067 | -0.072 |
| Spencer Levin | $6,300 | 0.107 | -0.045 | -0.184 | 0.012 | -0.086 |
| Ben Martin | $6,600 | 0.233 | -0.258 | -0.207 | 0.027 | -0.09 |
| Brian Stuard | $5,700 | 0.071 | -1.139 | -0.302 | 0.123 | -0.09 |
| Troy Merritt | $6,100 | -0.224 | -0.898 | 0.044 | -0.247 | -0.102 |
| Kevin Chappell | $9,400 | 0.67 | 1.32 | 0.021 | -0.233 | -0.106 |
| Ryan Palmer | $10,200 | 0.933 | 0.81 | -0.118 | -0.099 | -0.108 |
| Morgan Hoffmann | $6,200 | -0.013 | -0.274 | -0.12 | -0.126 | -0.123 |
| Justin Thomas | $10,700 | 0.733 | -0.543 | -0.268 | 0.014 | -0.127 |
| Gary Woodland | $10,300 | 0.716 | 1.431 | -0.249 | -0.006 | -0.127 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $8,200 | 0.337 | -0.312 | -0.158 | -0.106 | -0.132 |
| Kyle Reifers | $7,700 | 0.234 | 0.564 | 0.277 | -0.545 | -0.134 |
| George McNeill | $5,400 | 0.42 | -0.015 | -0.022 | -0.259 | -0.141 |
| Jon Curran | $7,600 | 0.186 | 1.04 | 0.116 | -0.403 | -0.144 |
| Sam Saunders | $5,300 | -0.438 | -0.024 | -0.315 | 0.002 | -0.157 |
| Patrick Reed | $11,700 | 0.823 | 1.442 | 0.044 | -0.361 | -0.159 |
| Andrew Loupe | $5,600 | -0.148 | -0.623 | -0.474 | 0.15 | -0.162 |
| Matt Jones | $7,200 | 0.257 | -0.519 | -0.219 | -0.117 | -0.168 |
| Charley Hoffman | $10,500 | 0.733 | 1.426 | -0.04 | -0.321 | -0.18 |
| Cameron Tringale | $6,400 | 0.358 | -0.078 | 0.166 | -0.531 | -0.182 |
| John Senden | $7,200 | 0.494 | 0.732 | 0.058 | -0.429 | -0.186 |
| Brian Harman | $6,300 | 0.336 | 0.245 | 0.023 | -0.397 | -0.187 |
| Cameron Smith | $5,500 | 0.032 | -1.749 | -0.379 | 0 | -0.19 |
| Whee Kim | $5,600 | -0.133 | 0.861 | -0.132 | -0.25 | -0.191 |
| Davis Love III | $5,200 | -0.42 | -1.975 | 0.073 | -0.481 | -0.204 |
| Daniel Summerhays | $8,100 | 0.62 | 1.241 | -0.284 | -0.129 | -0.206 |
| Sean O’Hair | $6,400 | 0.128 | 0.038 | -0.244 | -0.187 | -0.216 |
| Martin Laird | $5,900 | 0.171 | -0.391 | -0.526 | 0.092 | -0.217 |
| Michael Thompson | $5,600 | -0.064 | -0.996 | -0.314 | -0.135 | -0.225 |
| Brendan Steele | $9,900 | 0.768 | 0.795 | -0.42 | -0.035 | -0.228 |
| Zac Blair | $5,900 | 0.12 | 0.12 | -0.462 | -0.012 | -0.237 |
| K.J. Choi | $6,800 | 0.274 | 0.24 | -0.555 | 0.067 | -0.244 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $5,900 | 0.479 | 0.029 | -0.517 | 0 | -0.259 |
| Aaron Baddeley | $5,800 | 0.209 | 0.072 | -0.218 | -0.326 | -0.272 |
| Francesco Molinari | $7,900 | 0.762 | 0.723 | -0.244 | -0.302 | -0.273 |
| Nick Taylor | $5,500 | -0.212 | -0.263 | -0.157 | -0.402 | -0.279 |
| Bill Haas | $9,200 | 0.833 | 0.388 | -0.059 | -0.51 | -0.284 |
| Chesson Hadley | $5,200 | -0.31 | -0.941 | -0.426 | -0.144 | -0.285 |
| Mark Hubbard | $5,400 | -0.176 | -1.279 | -0.286 | -0.332 | -0.309 |
| Lucas Glover | $6,500 | -0.144 | 0.809 | -0.877 | 0.257 | -0.31 |
| Erik Compton | $5,100 | -0.094 | -1.508 | -0.156 | -0.487 | -0.321 |
| Rory Sabbatini | $5,500 | -0.062 | -1.327 | -0.144 | -0.505 | -0.325 |
| Jason Gore | $5,300 | 0 | -0.077 | -0.579 | -0.082 | -0.33 |
| Seung-Yul Noh | $8,400 | 0.139 | 0.404 | -0.376 | -0.379 | -0.378 |
| Fabian Gomez | $6,100 | -0.152 | -0.419 | -1.073 | 0.308 | -0.382 |
| Will MacKenzie | $5,700 | 0.085 | 0.137 | -0.665 | -0.178 | -0.422 |
| Derek Fathauer | $5,800 | -0.147 | -1.185 | -0.381 | -0.575 | -0.478 |
| Stuart Appleby | $5,600 | 0.104 | -0.312 | -0.272 | -0.808 | -0.54 |
| Jason Kokrak | $8,300 | 0.531 | 0.301 | -1.064 | -0.299 | -0.682 |
| Blayne Barber | $5,100 | -0.121 | -0.8 | -1.297 | -1.002 | -1.15 |