Searching for a Specialist: RBC Heritage
Welcome back to another search.
Last week we got all six specialists through the cut with Spieth, Berger, Rose, and Berger all finishing inside the top 10! Bingo! Bang! Bang! Let’s keep that momentum rolling this week at Harbour Town Golf Links.
The search this week will look at performance on Bermuda Greens, Less-than-Driver Courses, Short Courses and finish up with Wind Specialists.
Here we go…
Bermuda Greens
Some golfers love the West Coast Swing, while others count down the days until the TOUR returns to the South, bermuda country.
Last year, Kevin Kisner added this as he was contending here at the Heritage, “This is just what I grew up on. Guys that are from the West Coast complain by the grain, and I don’t even look at grain here. So I just putt like I’ve always putted. And I guess that’s why I’m not very good on the poa annua, and they laugh at me out there.”
The Top 10 Bermudagrass Specialists are:
Blayne Barber (0.52 sg:bermuda vs. -0.069 sg:total)
Ben Martin (0.856 sg:bermuda vs. 0.278 sg:total)
Jason Gore (0.615 sg:bermuda vs. 0.042 sg:total)
Fabian Gomez (0.395 sg:bermuda vs. -0.117 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.142 sg:bermuda vs. -0.26 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (0.496 sg:bermuda vs. 0.103 sg:total)
Erik Compton (0.365 sg:bermuda vs. -0.027 sg:total)
Ryan Palmer (1.329 sg:bermuda vs. 0.946 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (0.484 sg:bermuda vs. 0.109 sg:total)
Luke Donald (0.801 sg:bermuda vs. 0.433 sg:total)
Most of these golfers grew up, went to school at, or currently live in areas where bermuda is prevalent.
On the flip side, we have Tony Finau. Remarkably, he’s nearly a shot worse (per round) when playing on bermuda greens. He’s lost strokes to the field in 11-of-17 starts made on bermuda. When you add in our next angle (Less than Driver), it makes you wonder why Finau put this on his schedule. I would be legitimately shocked if Finau cracks the top 50 this week.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 63
Less-than-Driver Courses
Most courses on the PGA TOUR allow you to bomb-and-gouge, but not Harbour Town Golf Links. This week you better be on your best behavior off the tee, and not get overly aggressive.
Conservative golfers often succeed on these tracks. You can look toward the bottom of the Going for the Green stat, or you can check the specialists below.
The top 10 remaining Less-than-Driver Specialists:
Bill Haas (1.933 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.873 sg:total)
Tyler Aldridge (0.539 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.369 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (0.825 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.109 sg:total)
Blayne Barber (0.618 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.069 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.395 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.26 sg:total)
Matt Jones (0.955 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.341 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.018 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.505 sg:total)
Sean O’Hair (0.644 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.157 sg:total)
Vaughn Taylor (1.146 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.668 sg:total)
Jason Gore (0.488 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.042 sg:total)
We have a few repeats through two lists. They include Blayne Barber, Lucas Glover, Jason Gore, and Stuart Appleby.
A few of the big names we lose at this stage include Harris English, Webb Simpson, Billy Horschel, Paul Casey, Brendan Steele, and Russell Knox. Unlike the aforementioned Finau, these golfers should not be faded, they just aren’t the specialist we are looking for.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 43
Short Courses
Last week we had the length Augusta National and now we have the opposite. A short track that is just under 7,100 yards.
Don’t get the last two angles confused. Not all short courses force you to club down off the tee. Most short courses will put an emphasis on mid-iron play and/or short game.
The Top 10 Short Course Specialists that remain are:
Fabian Gomez (0.796 sg:short vs. -0.117 sg:total)
Bill Haas (1.574 sg:short vs. 0.873 sg:total)
Luke Donald (0.982 sg:short vs. 0.433 sg:total)
Jeff Overton (0.716 sg:short vs. 0.173 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.15 sg:short vs. 0.616 sg:total)
Chris Kirk (1.008 sg:short vs. 0.498 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.194 sg:short vs. -0.26 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (0.56 sg:short vs. 0.109 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (1.713 sg:short vs. 1.285 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (0.496 sg:short vs. 0.103 sg:total)
Glover and Appleby remain a perfect 3-for-3 in terms of making the top-10 lists. Scary.
Chesson Hadley is the biggest loser here in terms of specialist status. He’s lost strokes to the field in 12 of his last 16 starts on short courses, playing 0.658 strokes per round worse than his baseline.
Blayne Barber is also an interesting case. He’s lost strokes to the field in six of his eight starts on short courses. A T9 at the 2014-15 Mayakoba Classic is his only finish side the top 45 in those events. He checks a lot of boxes this week, but this angle is concerning.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 21
Windy Rounds
The RBC Heritage is played at Hilton Head Island. As the name suggests, it’s a coastal track that is exposed to wind.
This week is no different, as the forecasts call for 15-25 MPH winds with gusts exceeding 30 MPH at times.
Let’s have a look at the top 5 wind specialists who performs better in rounds where the wind speeds are over 14 MPH…
Luke Donald (1.29 sg:wind vs. 0.433 sg:total)
Matt Jones (1.06 sg:wind vs. 0.341 sg:total)
Camilo Villegas (0.711 sg:wind vs. 0.153 sg:total)
Jeff Overton (0.613 sg:wind vs. 0.173 sg:total)
Robert Streb (0.922 sg:wind vs. 0.617 sg:total)
GOLFERS REMAINING: 11
Baseline Performance
This step wasn’t needed last week as the field was so stacked. Basically, we want to remove the golfers that start at a big disadvantage.
Using a SG:Total threshold of 0.250 strokes per round, we can remove the following names:
Jeff Overton
Camilo Villegas
Stuart Appleby
Mark Hubbard
Roberto Castro
Robert Allenby
We can consider the names above in GPPs, but we don’t want uncertainty in our specialists.
The Specialists
Bill Haas
Luke Donald
Matt Jones
Matt Kuchar
Robert Streb
Our specialist of the week title goes to Bill Haas!
Haas’ course history is actually pretty poor here, but it’s important to note that Bill Haas pre-2010 was not the same Haas we know now. Since 2010, he’s 4-for-6 with all four going for T41 or better. He did WD in 2014 before his second round (wrist). He was only 1-over at the time so we could consider this 4-for-5 if we want to exclude that week. His best is a T24 but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him set a new career-best Heritage finish this week.
Luke Donald and Matt Kuchar are both specialists that also sport phenomenal course history. I would use them with confidence this week.
Matt Jones is out of form but this course could be a good landing spot to rebound. Same goes for Streb who loves to play in the wind.
Check out the full Specialist Table for more detailed data. You can sort and filter to your heart’s desire. Best of luck in all your matchups this week.