Searching for a Specialist: RSM Classic
The PGA TOUR returns to the homeland this week and that means some return to normalcy for a change. After weeks of play overseas, rain delays, and no-cut events, we finally have a regular event!
Our goal this week, and every week, is to find golfers that will outperform their normal week-to-week output. We call these golfers specialists.
This week in Georgia we will take a look at weak field performance, strokes gained on bermudagrass greens, short course output, and finish up with a unique angle that just came out of beta.
Weak Field Performance
If you think this week’s field should not be classified as weak, then you know you’ve been playing too much DFS golf. Sure, guys like Patton Kizzire, Smylie Kaufman, and Roberto Castro have been fantastic this season. However, they were playing on the Web.com Tour last year for a reason.
Last week this angle was one of the highest indicators of success, so it gets to lead the charge this week.
The OWGR.com Strength of Field rating for this event is generally below the 200 mark and that is very easily a weak field. The top 10 weak field specialists are listed below:
Bill Haas (1.965 sg:weak vs. 0.842 sg:total)
Matt Every (0.674 sg:weak vs. -0.439 sg:total)
Chris Kirk (1.543 sg:weak vs. 0.578 sg:total)
Zach Johnson (1.884 sg:weak vs. 0.981 sg:total)
Boo Weekley (0.771 sg:weak vs. 0.059 sg:total)
Russell Henley (0.841 sg:weak vs. 0.143 sg:total)
Scott Brown (0.906 sg:weak vs. 0.217 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (0.21 sg:weak vs. -0.46 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (0.281 sg:weak vs. -0.345 sg:total)
Tom Gillis (0.262 sg:weak vs. -0.333 sg:total)
We’ve lost a couple of big names right away. That includes Justin Thomas, Patrick Rodgers, and Harris English.
That difference in performance for Bill Haas is remarkable. He basically becomes Rory McIlroy whenever he tees it up against these weak fields.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 89
Bermuda Greens
The green surfaces each week always play a key part in handicapping the event. This week is no different.
Bermuda greens are heavily used in the South, or SEC country as I like to say.
While bentgrass courses tend to favor bombers, bermudagrass courses seem to cater the plodders. You’ll notice the majority of this list won’t be winning a long drive contest anytime soon.
The top 10 specialists when it comes to bermudagrass greens are listed below:
Matt Every (0.788 sg:bermuda vs. -0.439 sg:total)
Fabian Gomez (0.622 sg:bermuda vs. -0.113 sg:total)
Blayne Barber (0.39 sg:bermuda vs. -0.207 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (0.606 sg:bermuda vs. 0.043 sg:total)
Jason Gore (0.564 sg:bermuda vs. 0.039 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (0.138 sg:bermuda vs. -0.345 sg:total)
John Peterson (0.323 sg:bermuda vs. -0.151 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (1.016 sg:bermuda vs. 0.566 sg:total)
John Rollins (-0.525 sg:bermuda vs. -0.918 sg:total)
Zac Blair (0.585 sg:bermuda vs. 0.195 sg:total)
Like I mentioned before, you see a lot of SEC alum or golfers that now call the South home.
What is scary is we’ve already seen Matt Every near the top twice now! Is this the perfect event for him to break out of his slump? We will talk about that in a little bit. Let’s move on to the next stage.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 44
Short Courses
Generally a reliable angle, our short course studs kind of crapped the bed last week. For that reason, we see it third on the list this week rather than the lead horse.
Of the remaining 44 potential specialists, these are the 10 golfers that perform best on short courses:
Stuart Appleby (0.724 sg:short vs. 0.043 sg:total)
Brian Stuard (0.818 sg:short vs. 0.141 sg:total)
Bill Haas (1.498 sg:short vs. 0.842 sg:total)
Zac Blair (0.762 sg:short vs. 0.195 sg:total)
Matt Every (0.12 sg:short vs. -0.439 sg:total)
Fabian Gomez (0.417 sg:short vs. -0.113 sg:total)
Chris Kirk (1.064 sg:short vs. 0.578 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (1.801 sg:short vs. 1.331 sg:total)
Will MacKenzie (0.56 sg:short vs. 0.125 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (0.942 sg:short vs. 0.566 sg:total)
There is that name again, Matt Every!
This year marks the first year that the Seaside Course will be accompanied by the Plantation Courses. There will just be one round for each golfer at the new track and both courses are under 7,100 yards so it’s safe to look at this angle.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 26
Position Off The Tee
I’ve been testing this angle for quite a bit now but finally feel good about using it in public. I’m still searching for an exact name. It includes all courses that don’t allow golfers to grip it and rip it off the tee.
The criteria is a field average of all drives equaling less than 280 yards. This week’s Seaside Course has averaged around 274 yards off the tee, since 2010.
For now I will call it Position off the Tee, but I’ve labeled it Short Driving in the spreadsheet linked at the end of this article.
These 11 golfers all perform at least a quarter of a stroke better on short driving tracks:
Matt Every (0.873 sg:short driving vs. -0.439 sg:total)
Bill Haas (1.777 sg:short driving vs. 0.842 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (0.918 sg:short driving vs. 0.043 sg:total)
Blayne Barber (0.482 sg:short driving vs. -0.207 sg:total)
D.A. Points (-0.263 sg:short driving vs. -0.819 sg:total)
Mark Hubbard (0.323 sg:short driving vs. -0.185 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (1.833 sg:short driving vs. 1.331 sg:total)
Robert Allenby (-0.033 sg:short driving vs. -0.508 sg:total)
Fabian Gomez (0.311 sg:short driving vs. -0.113 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (0.699 sg:short driving vs. 0.351 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (0.896 sg:short driving vs. 0.571 sg:total)
GOLFERS REMAINING: 18
Baseline Performance
This is where we talk about the elephant in the room. Matt Every. He’s basically been a superstar in every angle we’ve looked at. On the flip side, his form is horrendous and his baseline strokes gained:total is below field average.
In fact, our list of specialists is so large this week, that we have the luxury of cutting out the following golfers with a SG:Total under zero:
Fabian Gomez
John Peterson
Mark Hubbard
Blayne Barber
Matt Every
Robert Allenby
D.A. Points
The Specialist
We’ve narrowed down the field to 11 specialists. They include the following names:
Bill Haas
Stuart Appleby
Chris Kirk
Matt Kuchar
Jason Kokrak
Zac Blair
Jason Dufner
Seung-yul Noh
Kevin Kisner
Camilo Villegas
Jonathan Byrd
This group of specialists already own five top 10s at this event. I’m expecting to pick up at least one more this week.
Narrowing down to just one, we come to the conclusion that Bill Haas is our specialist for the week. The list above is in order based on their specialist rating.
Haas begins the search with the fifth-highest baseline SG:Total, making this even more impressive.
Check out the full Specialist Table for more detailed data. You can sort and filter to your heart’s desire. Best of luck in all your matchups this week.