Searching for a Specialist: Scottish Open

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Welcome to a special European Tour edition of the Specialist search.

Last week we had Lingmerth as a specialist hanging around the top all week, but Rose and Hurley III both faded into the middle of the pack. Many of the fades worked out very well, including Dufner but the DJ and Day fades did not, to say the least!

In my free time I plan on going back to see if it’s worth ignoring anti-specialists if their form is over X strokes per round. Long term, we’ve seen the anti-specialists have very little success, but Day and DJ just crushed that. It’s something I will definitely dive deeper into.

This week we will look at par 72 courses, easy courses, and links layouts.

It’s also worth noting that Euro Tour data will be used this week, so we are only looking at stand-alone Euro Tour data plus major championships and WGC events.

The numbers referenced will be since the start of 2015, so a little smaller sample size than we have on the PGA TOUR, but we can still find some nice nuggets. Consider this a Beta version of the Euro Specialists as data gets accumulated and fully tested over the upcoming months.

Here we go…

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got DraftKings PGA incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from Notorious, as well as top plays from Gibbathy (2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year), a weekly course analysis, and Expert Consensus Rankings! Find out more about our incentives offerings here!

Par 72 Tracks

This week’s course is Castle Stuart Golf Links, a par 72 that’s just under 7,200 yards.

The course is very score-able so we want golfers that can take advantage of these par 5s. We could isolate par-5 scoring, but that leaves a large chunk of par 3s and par 4s unaccounted for. Instead we compare performance on par 72s versus baseline performance since the start of 2015.

The Top 10 Par 72 Specialists are:

Jeung-hun Wang (1.493 sg:par72 vs. 0.73 sg:total)
Clement Berardo (0.51 sg:par72 vs. -0.171 sg:total)
Victor Dubuisson (0.856 sg:par72 vs. 0.197 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (0.969 sg:par72 vs. 0.366 sg:total)
Luke Donald (1.496 sg:par72 vs. 0.914 sg:total)
Chris Wood (1.766 sg:par72 vs. 1.282 sg:total)
Gary Stal (0.637 sg:par72 vs. 0.2 sg:total)
Miguel Angel Jimenez (0.529 sg:par72 vs. 0.119 sg:total)
Gary Boyd (0.714 sg:par72 vs. 0.309 sg:total)
Henrik Stenson (2.284 sg:par72 vs. 1.903 sg:total)

Wang has crushed par 72s, but a large chunk of that came in three events. Both of his victories this year were par 72s and he also finished runner-up at the Hero Indian Open, another par 72. That kind of upside is huge, but those fields are quite a bit weaker than this week’s. I would target him, but wouldn’t go crazy with Wang.

On the other side we have George Coetzee who sees his upside cut drastically when playing par 72s. He’s found just four top 25s over his last 17 starts on par 72s (24%). In all other events over that stretch he’s collected top 25s in 8-of-14 starts (57%).

GOLFERS REMAINING: 72

Easy Courses

The next angle is easy courses. Looking at Euro Tour events since the start of 2015, we can rope in all courses where the field has averaged 0.5 strokes under par or easier.

Castle Stuart is generous off the tee which helps with scoring (average field scoring average of 70.64 over last three). They basically want to re-introduce links-style golf before the Open, without putting too much stress on these golfers.

The Top 10 Easy Course Specialists remaining:

Victor Dubuisson (2.068 sg:easy vs. 0.197 sg:total)
Peter Hanson (1.847 sg:easy vs. 0.781 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.411 sg:easy vs. 0.366 sg:total)
Scott Hend (0.856 sg:easy vs. 0.203 sg:total)
Graeme McDowell (1.142 sg:easy vs. 0.504 sg:total)
Nathan Holman (1.347 sg:easy vs. 0.753 sg:total)
Roope Kakko (1.133 sg:easy vs. 0.56 sg:total)
David Lipsky (0.732 sg:easy vs. 0.169 sg:total)
Thongchai Jaidee (1.541 sg:easy vs. 1.014 sg:total)
Oliver Fisher (0.609 sg:easy vs. 0.103 sg:total)

Editor’s Note: Victor Dubuisson has withdrawn from this week’s tournament.

Victor Da Bush Dubuisson has nine top 25s since the start of 2015, five of them have come on easy courses.

Along with Victor, Kiradech Aphibarnrat has also made both lists, thus far.

Looking for a negative example? Check out Matteo Manassero. He’s been pretty bad in general over the past two years, but even more so on easy tracks. In 10 starts on easy courses, his best finish is a 59th-place finish at the Dubai Desert Classic, missing the cut in all of the other nine. Probably not the best time to invest.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 29

Links Courses

The last angle is a great one, but too small of sample size at this point to lead with.

For those unfamiliar with a links-style layout, it means it lacks trees, is usually coastal but lacks water for the most part. The courses are usually built on rolling terrain that play firm and bouncy. The lack of water allows golfers to use the ground game to attack greens. The lack of trees leave the courses exposed to winds so even 8-12 mph winds may have more affect than 15 mph at a tree-lined course.

At this stage we say goodbye to 18 golfers due to sample size and also eliminate the following golfers as their performance drops on links courses:

Chris Wood
Jamie Donaldson
Thongchai Jaidee
Lucas Bjerregaard

Jaidee is one of the most consistent golfers on the Euro Tour but he sees quite a dip when playing on links, so it might be a week to lay off. Especially since his price just jumped drastically after winning the Open de France last week.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 6

Baseline Performance

Using our recent form filter, we can eliminate golfers that have lost strokes to the field over the last 10 weeks of stroke-play events (Current Form):

Marc Warren
Tommy Fleetwood
Victor Dubuisson

Editor’s Note: Victor Dubuisson has withdrawn from this week’s tournament.

We already talked about Dubi, and how easy courses fit his eye. He’s been playing pretty bad, though, so I would keep him for GPPs only this week.

Marc Warren is 3-for-3 at Castle Stuart including a T3 in 2012, so this could be a nice venue to jump-start his poor form.

Tommy Fleetwood ended 2015 inside the top 80, but he’s ice cold right now. Missed the cut in four of his last five starts and 69th-place in the other. This links-layout might be a nice slump-buster, but that form is tough to take on unless you’re playing multiple lineups in GPPs.

The Specialists

Graeme McDowell
Shane Lowry
Benjamin Hebert

graeme-mcdowell-300x200

Our specialist this week is Graeme McDowell.

G-Mac a specialist on a links track? Who’d a thunk it?

His only trip to Castle Stuart was the rain-shortened 2011 edition (T42) but I do like his sneaky form, posting top 30s in three of his last six, worldwide.

Much like G-Mac, Lowry’s links prowess is well-documented so that is very promising. He finished T5 in birdies last week’s Bridgestone despite finishing T36. Those birdies will help with DK scoring and with Castle Stuart being laid out much easier than Firestone, we shouldn’t see all those bogeys on the Irishman’s scorecard this week.

Lastly, we have Benjamin Hebert. The 29-year-old Frenchman has top 50s in nine of his 14 starts in 2016. Nothing screams to play him at all costs, but nothing screams to avoid him either. He looks like a nice salary-saving option at $6K.

The Anti-Specialists

The golfers below are negative in all three angles this week. Basically the exact opposite of our specialists. Long term, it’s been very beneficial to fade these anti-specialists.

Rafa Cabrera Bello
Joost Luiten
Robert Dinwiddie
Andy Sullivan
James Morrison
David Howell
Tyrrell Hatton

There are a few big names on this list of potential fades. First, we have Rafa Cabrera Bello. He’s been a stud all year but there is nothing in his track record that suggests he would pop on a links layout. Probably a good week to jump off the train, even though it’s been so profitable to back him in 2016. Supporting the fade case, he is just 1-for-3 at Castle Stuart with a T47 his best finish.

Joost Luiten is another big name that we’ve seen jump across the pond and have some success. However, he missed the cut in his only trip to Castle Stuart, and doesn’t line up all that well for this easy, par 72.

Andy Sullivan is another household name (at least for DFS players). I faded him last week purely based on Twitter drama as he was caught cheating on his girlfriend, apparently, and she called him out publicly. It didn’t phase him on the course last week, but now the numbers say to fade, so I will listen and avoid him again.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 16 rounds to qualify for each angle. The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2015), Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained.

Golfer DK SG:Total Form Par 72 Links Easy Course Specialist Rating
Victor Dubuisson $6,900 0.2 -0.83 0.66 0.25 1.87 0.93
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $7,200 0.37 -0.74 0.6 0 1.05 0.55
Marc Warren $6,600 0.19 -0.08 0.25 0.75 0.49 0.5
Peter Hanson $6,400 0.78 -0.05 0.21 0 1.07 0.42
Graeme McDowell $7,800 0.5 1.07 0.21 0.17 0.64 0.34
Nathan Holman $5,900 0.75 -0.08 0.29 0 0.59 0.29
Scott Hend $6,700 0.2 0.58 0.21 0 0.65 0.29
Henrik Stenson $12,200 1.9 1.98 0.38 0 0.44 0.27
Chris Wood $10,000 1.28 2.09 0.48 -0.09 0.38 0.26
Tommy Fleetwood $6,300 0.53 -0.46 0.01 0.61 0.17 0.26
Jeung-hun Wang $7,100 0.73 0.74 0.76 0 0 0.25
Fabrizio Zanotti $6,700 0.45 0.63 -0.16 0.75 0.13 0.24
Luke Donald $8,100 0.91 0.16 0.58 0.15 0 0.24
David Lipsky $5,900 0.17 0.57 0.17 0 0.56 0.24
Clement Berardo $5,300 -0.17 0.4 0.68 0 0 0.23
Gary Stal $5,600 0.2 -0.04 0.44 0 0.26 0.23
Joakim Lagergren $5,500 0.23 0.27 0.31 0 0.37 0.23
Roope Kakko $5,400 0.56 0.11 0.13 0 0.57 0.23
Eddie Pepperell $6,300 0.25 0.26 -0.19 0.71 0.13 0.22
Shane Lowry $10,500 0.87 2.12 0.12 0.28 0.26 0.22
Matthew Baldwin $5,100 -1.01 -1.04 -0.05 0 0.59 0.18
Oliver Fisher $5,700 0.1 0.15 0.04 0 0.51 0.18
Edouard Espana $5,300 -0.49 -1.97 -0.12 0 0.6 0.16
Nicolas Colsaerts $8,600 0.76 1.63 0.29 0 0.16 0.15
Gary Boyd $5,500 0.31 0.65 0.41 0 0 0.14
Chris Paisley $5,700 0.31 0 0.19 0 0.25 0.14
Padraig Harrington $6,800 0.11 -0.19 0 0.14 0.29 0.14
S.S.P. Chawrasia $5,600 0.47 -0.09 0.35 0 0 0.12
Thorbjorn Olesen $7,300 0.47 0.97 0.22 0 0.15 0.12
Trevor Fisher Jr. $5,900 0.72 0.32 0.07 0 0.27 0.11
Shiv Kapur $5,400 0.14 -0.23 0.37 0 -0.1 0.09
Chris Hanson $5,200 0.86 1.12 0.27 0 0 0.09
Benjamin Hebert $6,000 0.69 0.49 0.16 0.01 0.09 0.09
Felipe Aguilar $6,000 0.33 0.79 0.19 0 0.02 0.07
Jorge Campillo $5,700 0.66 0.64 0.12 0 0.08 0.07
Soren Kjeldsen $8,400 0.96 0.37 0.03 0.4 -0.25 0.06
Thongchai Jaidee $9,200 1.01 1.12 0.31 -0.66 0.53 0.06
Paul Lawrie $6,200 0.49 -0.03 -0.27 0.24 0.21 0.06
David Dixon $5,100 -0.23 0.19 0.19 0 0 0.06
Hao Tong Li $6,100 1.18 0.74 0.18 0 0 0.06
Callum Shinkwin $6,300 0.49 0.83 0.18 0 0 0.06
Ashun Wu $6,000 0.84 0.52 0.17 0 0 0.06
Branden Grace $11,600 2.01 2.28 0.33 0.29 -0.47 0.05
Brett Rumford $5,400 0.05 -0.77 -0.13 0 0.29 0.05
Nino Bertasio $5,800 1.11 1.24 0.15 0 0 0.05
Alex Noren $8,200 1.14 1.2 0.09 0 0.07 0.05
Thomas Linard $5,200 -0.05 -0.3 0.11 0 0 0.04
Alejandro Canizares $5,600 0.81 -0.06 0.08 0 0 0.03
Oliver Wilson $5,100 -1.79 -0.92 -0.22 0 0.31 0.03
Thomas Pieters $8,000 1.02 0.77 -0.02 0 0.11 0.03
Thomas Bjorn $6,000 -0.11 -0.74 -0.03 0 0.13 0.03
Matt Ford $5,000 -0.14 -0.39 0 0 0.06 0.02
Eduardo De La Riva $6,100 0.55 0.52 -0.08 0 0.14 0.02
Andrew Dodt $5,300 -0.37 -0.09 0.05 0 0 0.02
Jason Scrivener $5,300 0.68 -0.21 0.01 0 0.06 0.02
Jeev Milkha Singh $5,300 -0.55 -1.4 -0.07 0 0.08 0.01
Johan Edfors $5,500 -0.43 0.16 0.07 0 -0.05 0.01
Magnus A. Carlsson $6,200 0.59 0.94 0.14 0 -0.09 0.01
Daniel Brooks $5,200 -0.4 0.14 0.03 0 0.01 0.01
Mike Lorenzo-Vera $5,500 0.23 0.15 -0.01 0 0 0
Phil Mickelson $10,900 0.96 1.76 0 -0.01 0 0
Darren Fichardt $5,900 0.19 0.33 0.16 0 -0.16 0
Simon Dyson $5,200 -1.37 -1.11 0.03 0 -0.03 0
Sebastien Gros $6,000 0.69 0.47 0 0 0 0
Peter Whiteford $5,600 -0.52 0 0 0 0 0
Morten Orum Madsen $5,100 -1.56 -0.65 0 0 0 0
Colin Montgomerie $6,100 -1.09 0 0 0 0 0
Patrick Reed $10,200 1.06 -0.05 0 0 0 0
Jamie Lovemark $6,800 0.84 -0.11 0 0 0 0
David Lingmerth $9,300 0.78 2.61 0 0 0 0
Russell Knox $9,400 0.71 0.45 0 0 0 0
J.B. Holmes $8,800 0.74 0.59 0 0 0 0
Steve Stricker $7,900 0.96 1.07 0 0 0 0
Jimmy Gunn $5,600 1.4 0 0 0 0 0
Albert Venter $5,000 -2.98 0 0 0 0 0
Gareth Wright $5,300 -1.49 -0.46 0 0 0 0
Danny Lee $7,500 -0.36 -0.57 0 0 0 0
Sandy Lyle $5,300 -2.44 0 0 0 0 0
Gregory Havret $5,700 0.34 0.13 0.17 0 -0.2 -0.01
Mikko Korhonen $6,400 0.89 0.72 -0.05 0 -0.02 -0.02
Michael Hoey $5,200 -0.06 -0.67 0.02 0 -0.08 -0.02
Joachim B. Hansen $5,500 -0.78 -0.33 -0.06 0 0 -0.02
Bradley Dredge $6,800 1.18 0.93 -0.03 0 -0.03 -0.02
Renato Paratore $5,600 -0.08 0.07 0.07 0 -0.17 -0.03
Anthony Wall $5,500 0.76 -0.43 -0.27 0 0.18 -0.03
Rhys Davies $5,000 -0.52 -1.23 -0.09 0 0 -0.03
Jamie Donaldson $7,200 0.45 0.13 0.18 -0.28 0.02 -0.03
Mikko Ilonen $6,700 0.21 0.03 -0.2 0.22 -0.11 -0.03
Steve Webster $5,300 -0.43 0.1 -0.37 0 0.29 -0.03
Andrew Johnston $7,000 0.65 0.51 -0.04 0 -0.09 -0.04
Andrew McArthur $5,000 0.46 -0.27 -0.12 0 0 -0.04
Richard Green $5,400 0.61 -0.26 -0.12 0 0 -0.04
Matthew Southgate $6,200 0.71 0.72 -0.11 0 0 -0.04
Jens Fahrbring $5,300 -0.59 -0.81 -0.16 0 0 -0.05
Richard McEvoy $5,400 0.26 0.71 -0.15 0 0 -0.05
Borja Virto $5,200 -0.37 -0.63 -0.15 0 0 -0.05
Bjorn Akesson $5,100 -0.47 -0.44 -0.14 0 0 -0.05
Ricardo Gouveia $6,300 0.7 0.46 -0.17 0 0 -0.06
Stuart Manley $5,900 0.2 0.35 -0.17 0 0 -0.06
Simon Khan $5,600 -0.53 0.01 -0.17 0 0 -0.06
Ross McGowan $5,400 -0.08 0.13 -0.22 0 0 -0.07
Miguel Angel Jimenez $6,400 0.12 0.16 0.41 -0.37 -0.24 -0.07
Edoardo Molinari $5,700 -0.18 0.15 0.01 0 -0.22 -0.07
Johan Carlsson $6,600 0.47 0.9 0.11 0 -0.31 -0.07
Prom Meesawat $5,800 0.4 -0.11 0.09 0 -0.29 -0.07
Richard Bland $6,000 0.99 0.73 -0.13 0 -0.12 -0.08
Graeme Storm $5,500 0.23 0.12 0 0 -0.23 -0.08
Jamie McLeary $5,100 -0.44 -1.44 -0.23 0 0 -0.08
Pablo Larrazabal $6,900 0.55 0.57 0.15 0 -0.37 -0.08
Daniel Im $5,400 0.4 -0.23 -0.28 0 0 -0.09
Lee Slattery $6,400 0.49 0.41 -0.1 0 -0.17 -0.09
Paul McGinley $5,000 -1.3 -0.64 -0.27 0 0 -0.09
Alexander Levy $6,500 0.63 0.31 0.16 -0.27 -0.15 -0.09
Richard Sterne $7,100 1.35 0.57 -0.3 0 0 -0.1
Haydn Porteous $5,400 -0.11 -0.35 -0.29 0 0 -0.1
David Drysdale $5,800 0.33 -0.35 0.03 0 -0.31 -0.1
Julien Quesne $6,600 0.89 0.72 0.19 0 -0.48 -0.1
Jeff Winther $5,000 -0.81 -0.52 -0.34 0 0 -0.11
Robert Karlsson $6,100 -0.24 0.29 0.14 0 -0.51 -0.12
Niclas Fasth $5,100 -0.15 0.24 0.06 0 -0.41 -0.12
Nacho Elvira $5,200 -0.18 0.01 0.37 0 -0.78 -0.14
Pelle Edberg $5,200 -0.06 -1.05 -0.06 0 -0.39 -0.15
Gregory Bourdy $7,600 1.15 2.06 0.14 0 -0.58 -0.15
George Coetzee $7,000 0.8 -0.17 -0.43 0 -0.06 -0.16
John Parry $5,200 0 -0.59 -0.44 -0.29 0.24 -0.16
Martin Kaymer $11,200 1.09 2.08 0.11 -0.21 -0.38 -0.16
Maximilian Kieffer $5,800 0.97 -0.23 -0.11 0 -0.37 -0.16
Lucas Bjerregaard $6,200 0.36 0.4 0.06 -1.04 0.48 -0.17
Tyrrell Hatton $7,400 0.98 1.35 -0.03 -0.03 -0.49 -0.18
Robert Rock $6,100 0.7 0.13 -0.04 0 -0.51 -0.18
Soomin Lee $5,900 0.56 -0.65 -0.53 0 0 -0.18
David Howell $6,100 0.86 -0.23 -0.07 -0.36 -0.14 -0.19
Romain Wattel $6,500 0.61 0.65 0.12 -0.58 -0.13 -0.2
Scott Jamieson $5,800 0.08 -0.58 -0.09 0 -0.55 -0.21
Jin Jeong $5,000 -6.33 -3.55 -0.66 0 0 -0.22
James Morrison $6,700 0.68 0.86 -0.04 -0.48 -0.14 -0.22
Craig Lee $5,400 0 0.02 -0.26 0 -0.38 -0.22
Andy Sullivan $9,800 1.2 1.04 -0.19 -0.45 -0.04 -0.23
Lasse Jensen $5,700 0.22 0.49 0.01 0 -0.68 -0.23
Robert Dinwiddie $6,100 0.22 0.61 -0.24 -0.2 -0.37 -0.27
David Horsey $6,200 0.62 0.23 -0.14 0 -0.66 -0.27
Ben Evans $5,000 0.2 -1.61 -0.41 0 -0.39 -0.27
Joost Luiten $9,600 1 0.99 -0.04 -0.39 -0.42 -0.28
Rafa Cabrera Bello $9,900 1.2 1.73 -0.23 -0.05 -0.6 -0.29
Matthew Fitzpatrick $9,000 1.05 0.92 -0.19 0 -0.68 -0.29
Y.E. Yang $5,900 0.58 0.01 -0.14 0 -0.76 -0.3
Richie Ramsay $6,300 0.69 0.36 0.06 0 -0.96 -0.3
Marcel Siem $6,200 -0.14 -0.13 -0.34 0 -0.55 -0.3
Justin Walters $5,500 0.34 -0.81 -0.6 0 -0.32 -0.31
Ross Fisher $7,700 1.03 1.01 0.04 -0.72 -0.29 -0.32
Raphael Jacquelin $6,900 0.27 0.85 -0.18 0 -0.93 -0.37
Matteo Manassero $6,500 -0.32 1.06 0.18 0 -1.45 -0.42

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.