Searching for a Specialist: Sentry Tournament of Champions
Welcome back to the PGA grind!
It’s only been a month since the Hero World Challenge, but that seems like forever in the world of DFS.
To kick off 2018 we will look at past performance to see what golfers should be a good course fit at Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course.
The angles we will focus on are the following: Performance on Easy-to-Hit Fairways, Performance on Coastal Courses, Performance on Short Courses, and Performance on Easy-to-Hit Greens.
Here we go …
Easy-to-Hit Fairways
The fairways at Kapalua are massive. You could land a jumbo jet on most them. Not that you’d want to since they would require some serious groundskeeping work to get that turf playable again.
Since 2011, the field has hit an average of roughly 72% of greens (~10 per round). Let’s see who shines under these conditions…
The 10 Easy Fairway Specialists:
Jordan Spieth (3.266 sg:easy fairways vs. 2.728 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.789 sg:easy fairways vs. 2.279 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.403 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.924 sg:total)
Russell Henley (1.598 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.277 sg:total)
Chris Stroud (0.971 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.674 sg:total)
Ryan Armour (0.751 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.48 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.309 sg:easy fairways vs. 2.048 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.652 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.394 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.673 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.42 sg:total)
Hudson Swafford (1.119 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.876 sg:total)
When fairways are easy to hit, Spieth dominates. Since 2014, he’s gained 294 strokes over the field in 90 rounds on easy-to-hit fairways. The next closest in the field is Hideki Matsuyama with 234 strokes gained. In third place is DJ, who sits way down at 202 strokes gained (92 total strokes fewer than Spieth). Talk about dominance!
There are two golfers with negative numbers in this category (total strokes gained on Easy FW layouts since 2014): Grayson Murray and D.A. Points. Murray has a smaller sample, but I wouldn’t rush to target either of them.
Coastal Courses
Coastal courses often get a heavy dose of wind. Even a 10 MPH wind might wreak more havoc than usual.
It’s no surprise that most of our coastal horses are also the same golfers that have earned a reputation for dealing with the wind.
The Top 10 Coastal Specialists are:
Patton Kizzire (1.436 sg:coastal vs. 0.728 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (3.239 sg:coastal vs. 2.728 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.376 sg:coastal vs. 0.924 sg:total)
D.A. Points (0.304 sg:coastal vs. -0.109 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.402 sg:coastal vs. 2.048 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (2.06 sg:coastal vs. 1.751 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (0.944 sg:coastal vs. 0.71 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.594 sg:coastal vs. 1.443 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.556 sg:coastal vs. 1.42 sg:total)
Ryan Armour (0.594 sg:coastal vs. 0.48 sg:total)
Both Aussies show up high on the list here (Cam Smith and Leishman). Not alarming, given the reputation Aussies have earned for wind performance over the years.
Short Courses
On raw yardage, this doesn’t look like a short course (7,450 yards) but from a hole-by-hole view, it certainly is.
As a par 73, there are only three par 3s. Instead, there are 11 par 4s and EIGHT of them are LESS THAN 420 yards.
In the past, I’ve used raw yardage for this angle, but I’ve shifted my database to look at courses from a hole-by-hole POV which really paints a better picture.
The Top 10 Short Course Specialists:
Patton Kizzire (1.455 sg:short vs. 0.728 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.507 sg:short vs. 0.924 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.844 sg:short vs. 1.42 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (3.053 sg:short vs. 2.728 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.616 sg:short vs. 1.332 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (0.929 sg:short vs. 0.71 sg:total)
Hudson Swafford (1.077 sg:short vs. 0.876 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.458 sg:short vs. 2.279 sg:total)
Brian Harman (1.351 sg:short vs. 1.23 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.625 sg:short vs. 1.542 sg:total)
We just saw Patton Kizzire win in Mexico on a short, coastal track. It’s no surprise to see him popping again here.
Easy-to-Hit Greens
We’ve already looked at Easy Fairway specialists, but in this case, those easy fairways also lead to easy approach shots, hitting so many of them from the short grass.
The field average in GIR percentage has been 80 percent or higher in six of the last seven TOC editions.
The Top 10 Easy GIR Specialists:
Russell Henley (1.983 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.277 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (3.306 sg:easy GIR vs. 2.728 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.265 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.728 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.817 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.42 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.277 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.924 sg:total)
Wesley Bryan (1.098 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.746 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.279 sg:easy GIR vs. 2.048 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.014 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.798 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.529 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.332 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.451 sg:easy GIR vs. 2.279 sg:total)
Since 2014, there are four golfers in the field this week that have gained 200+ strokes over the field on Easy GIR courses: Jordan Spieth, Kevin Kisner, Justin Thomas, and Russell Henley. All four of them have a huge sample size on their side.
The Specialist
Jordan Spieth
Cameron Smith
Kevin Kisner
Pat Perez
The specialist this week is Jordan Spieth.
The newly-engaged Texan is not only is Spieth our specialist, but he also boasts the top baseline number as well. His specialist numbers aren’t particularly low, either, as he’s 0.325 strokes better per round on short courses and that’s his “lowest” angle.
Cam Smith arrives with form in his favor as well as course fit. The Aussie won back home at the Australian PGA.
Kisner didn’t miss a beat in his return to action at The RSM Classic (T4). Gamers should look for him to flirt with contention again this week on a course that rewards wedge play and short game.
Lastly, we have Pat Perez, who had a career year in 2017, at the age of 41 no less. The ASU product finished T10 here in his 2010 debut and returned last year to post a T3 finish.
Anti-Specialists
Daniel Berger
Boog is the only golfer in the field to show up with negative numbers in all four categories this week. He ranks 11th in baseline performance so I wouldn’t count him out completely, but I wouldn’t push all my chips in on Berger.
Super Simple Specialist Ratings
The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.
However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.
Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:
Jordan Spieth
Kevin Kisner
Austin Cook
Brooks Koepka
Marc Leishman
Cameron Smith
Hideki Matsuyama
Patton Kizzire
Pat Perez
Jon Rahm
Rickie Fowler
Dustin Johnson
Patrick Cantlay
Russell Henley
Justin Thomas
Hudson Swafford
Brian Harman
Si Woo Kim
Xander Schauffele
Jason Dufner
Wesley Bryan
This list is actually the top 21 since Dufner and Bryan ended up in a tie for No. 20. I should also note that current form doesn’t include the Hero World Challenge (since it was an unofficial event). However, guys like Fowler and Hideki would get a small boost if they were included.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014).
Form looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA, Web, and Euro).
| Golfer | DK | FD | FDRFT | SG:Total | Form | Easy FW | Easy GIR | Coastal | Short | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | $10,900 | $12,300 | $15,900 | 2.728 | 0 | 0.539 | 0.578 | 0.511 | 0.325 | 0.488 |
| Cameron Smith | $7,600 | $8,200 | $14,400 | 0.924 | 17.805 | 0.479 | 0.353 | 0.452 | 0.583 | 0.467 |
| Patton Kizzire | $7,300 | $7,400 | $13,700 | 0.728 | 24.563 | -0.229 | 0.537 | 0.708 | 0.726 | 0.435 |
| Kevin Kisner | $8,400 | $10,500 | $15,200 | 1.42 | 14.201 | 0.252 | 0.397 | 0.136 | 0.424 | 0.302 |
| Brooks Koepka | $9,400 | $11,400 | $15,600 | 2.048 | 0 | 0.261 | 0.231 | 0.353 | 0 | 0.211 |
| Pat Perez | $8,000 | $9,400 | $14,500 | 1.332 | 5.862 | 0.202 | 0.197 | 0.09 | 0.284 | 0.194 |
| Russell Henley | $7,800 | $8,800 | $14,100 | 1.277 | 0 | 0.321 | 0.707 | -0.26 | -0.087 | 0.17 |
| Hudson Swafford | $6,900 | $7,600 | $13,600 | 0.876 | 5.701 | 0.244 | 0.114 | -0.051 | 0.201 | 0.127 |
| Si Woo Kim | $6,700 | $8,300 | $13,400 | 0.71 | 11.355 | -0.165 | 0.079 | 0.234 | 0.219 | 0.092 |
| Marc Leishman | $9,000 | $10,000 | $15,100 | 1.751 | 13.305 | 0.065 | -0.002 | 0.309 | -0.029 | 0.086 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,800 | $11,700 | $15,400 | 2.279 | 0 | 0.509 | 0.172 | -0.534 | 0.178 | 0.081 |
| Wesley Bryan | $6,200 | $7,300 | $12,900 | 0.746 | 0 | -0.078 | 0.352 | 0 | 0 | 0.069 |
| D.A. Points | $6,000 | $7,000 | $12,800 | -0.109 | -9.645 | 0.056 | 0.057 | 0.413 | -0.259 | 0.067 |
| Grayson Murray | $6,400 | $8,000 | $13,000 | 0.595 | 0 | 0 | 0.005 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 |
| Austin Cook | $7,100 | $7,900 | $14,000 | 1.754 | 22.563 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,600 | $9,300 | $14,600 | 1.684 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Armour | $6,100 | $7,000 | $13,400 | 0.48 | 7.063 | 0.271 | -0.146 | 0.114 | -0.26 | -0.005 |
| Kyle Stanley | $6,800 | $8,600 | $13,900 | 0.853 | 0 | -0.043 | 0.057 | -0.025 | -0.026 | -0.009 |
| Xander Schauffele | $8,500 | $8,700 | $14,700 | 1.286 | 0 | 0 | -0.055 | 0 | 0 | -0.014 |
| Brian Harman | $8,700 | $9,200 | $14,300 | 1.23 | 14.201 | 0.043 | -0.057 | -0.162 | 0.121 | -0.014 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,400 | $7,500 | $13,200 | 0.798 | 1.362 | 0.235 | 0.216 | -0.175 | -0.396 | -0.03 |
| Justin Thomas | $11,100 | $12,200 | $15,800 | 1.937 | 0 | -0.092 | 0.002 | -0.204 | 0.061 | -0.058 |
| Dustin Johnson | $10,300 | $12,500 | $15,500 | 2.692 | 0 | 0.035 | -0.098 | -0.098 | -0.092 | -0.063 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $7,000 | $7,800 | $13,800 | 1.053 | 10.862 | 0.165 | 0.025 | -0.474 | 0.031 | -0.063 |
| Chris Stroud | $6,200 | $7,100 | $13,200 | 0.674 | 2.545 | 0.298 | 0.011 | -0.258 | -0.402 | -0.088 |
| Jason Dufner | $7,200 | $9,700 | $13,300 | 1.443 | 0 | -0.158 | -0.142 | 0.151 | -0.264 | -0.103 |
| Adam Hadwin | $6,600 | $8,800 | $13,500 | 1.117 | 0 | 0.203 | 0.001 | -0.358 | -0.293 | -0.112 |
| Kevin Chappell | $7,700 | $9,600 | $14,300 | 1.394 | -2.156 | 0.257 | -0.471 | -0.232 | -0.055 | -0.125 |
| Billy Horschel | $6,500 | $8,300 | $13,700 | 1.265 | 0 | 0.211 | -0.089 | -0.289 | -0.495 | -0.166 |
| Brendan Steele | $7,400 | $9,000 | $14,100 | 1.542 | 0 | -0.147 | 0.169 | -0.874 | 0.084 | -0.192 |
| Jonas Blixt | $6,300 | $7,000 | $13,500 | 0.519 | -4.344 | -0.09 | -0.463 | 0.032 | -0.482 | -0.251 |
| Jon Rahm | $9,500 | $11,000 | $15,300 | 2.367 | 17.321 | -0.367 | -0.132 | -0.513 | 0 | -0.253 |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,500 | $12,000 | $15,700 | 2.283 | 19.362 | -0.268 | -0.381 | -0.416 | 0 | -0.266 |
| Daniel Berger | $8,200 | $10,300 | $14,200 | 1.639 | 0 | -0.353 | -0.18 | -0.527 | -0.416 | -0.369 |