Searching for a Specialist: Sony Open

With a full field of 144 golfers set to take on Waialae Country Club, DFS golf is officially back!

Last week was a good event to shake off the rust, with only 34 golfers in the TOC. Two of the TOC specialists struggled with the dreadfully slow greens in R1 (Spieth and Cam Smith) before rebounding over the final three rounds. Kisner and Perez fulfilled their duties. Not a terrible week, but definitely room for improvement at the Sony.

Keeping it rather simple this week, we will look at Performance on Bermuda, Performance on Par 70s, and Performance on Coastal Courses.

Here we go …

Performance on Bermuda

For the second week in a row we have grainy Bermuda to deal with.

Some golfers love the challenge while others continue to be stumped.

The 10 Bermuda Specialists:

Matt Every (0.547 sg:bermuda vs. -0.339 sg:total)
Ollie Schniederjans (1.952 sg:bermuda vs. 1.077 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (1.538 sg:bermuda vs. 0.71 sg:total)
Colt Knost (1.412 sg:bermuda vs. 0.736 sg:total)
Smylie Kaufman (1.279 sg:bermuda vs. 0.649 sg:total)
Luke Donald (1.749 sg:bermuda vs. 1.137 sg:total)
Ben Martin (1.362 sg:bermuda vs. 0.839 sg:total)
Ryan Armour (0.887 sg:bermuda vs. 0.48 sg:total)
Fabian Gomez (0.893 sg:bermuda vs. 0.487 sg:total)
Brett Stegmaier (0.563 sg:bermuda vs. 0.169 sg:total)

The journeyman, Gomez, has a pair of wins on bermuda, including one here at Waialae.

Matt Every also has two wins on bermuda and likes to fly out of the gate. This could be one of those weeks where he grabs the first-round lead.

Coastal Courses

Playing well by the coast typically means you have the ability to judge wind very well.

Even a 10 MPH breeze can do damage when a course is fully exposed to the coastal winds. The forecast isn’t too windy this week, but this list should still provide a gauge of who likes this style of course. Part of playing well by the coast is playing well on slower green speeds.

The Top 10 Coastal Specialists are:

Kelly Kraft (1.445 sg:coastal vs. 0.309 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.925 sg:coastal vs. 0.955 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.473 sg:coastal vs. 0.728 sg:total)
Brian Gay (1.062 sg:coastal vs. 0.344 sg:total)
Rob Oppenheim (0.953 sg:coastal vs. 0.24 sg:total)
Luke Donald (1.843 sg:coastal vs. 1.137 sg:total)
Ollie Schniederjans (1.751 sg:coastal vs. 1.077 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (1.367 sg:coastal vs. 0.695 sg:total)
Colt Knost (1.377 sg:coastal vs. 0.736 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (2.07 sg:coastal vs. 1.546 sg:total)

Coastal conditions and links golf often go hand-in-hand. If you have a golfer that comes to mind when you think of links specialists, then they’ll probably like the setup at Waialae CC.

Based on golfer quotes, there is a lot of “run-it-up” golf like you’d see at an Open Championship. Being able to flight your ball around here is a nice advantage to have in your back pocket.

Par 70 Courses

With par 70 courses in play, it means fewer tap-in birdies and fewer eagle opportunities.

In general, this puts a ding on bombers but that’s not always the case so let’s have a look who gets it done on par 70s…

The Top 10 Par 70 Specialists:

Xander Schauffele (2.133 sg:par70 vs. 1.286 sg:total)
Webb Simpson (1.993 sg:par70 vs. 1.562 sg:total)
Kelly Kraft (0.71 sg:par70 vs. 0.309 sg:total)
Brett Stegmaier (0.561 sg:par70 vs. 0.169 sg:total)
Chez Reavie (1.673 sg:par70 vs. 1.29 sg:total)
Tyrone Van Aswegen (0.744 sg:par70 vs. 0.389 sg:total)
Ryan Armour (0.82 sg:par70 vs. 0.48 sg:total)
Rory Sabbatini (0.832 sg:par70 vs. 0.497 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (1.028 sg:par70 vs. 0.71 sg:total)
Morgan Hoffmann (0.932 sg:par70 vs. 0.652 sg:total)

A lot of grinders on the list and golfers that have the capability of going lights out on approach or around the greens.

How about upside on par 70s? Jordan Spieth is definitely KING. Looking at the number of times a golfer has gained 12+ adjusted strokes over a field on par 70s, Spieth has done it a whopping 12 times since 2014. The next best in the field has just FIVE (JT, Webb, Danny Lee, Palmer, and Streb all tied).

Baseline Performance

We’ve now narrowed our list down to 14 golfers who are positive in all three angles, but we can’t really trust them all.

If a golfer is below the field average in baseline performance (SG:Total column) or hasn’t picked up a top 20 over the last 16 weeks then they get relegated to GPP-ONLY status.

Those GPP-ONLY SPECIALISTS this week include:

Brian Gay
Colt Knost
Ryan Armour
John Peterson
Rory Sabbatini
Fabian Gomez
Sangmoon Bae

The Specialist

Ollie Schniederjans
Si Woo Kim
Luke Donald
Russell Knox
Webb Simpson
Jason Dufner
Kevin Kisner

The specialist this week is Ollie Schniederjans!

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The hatless hero has shown a very strong leaning toward bermuda greens, early in his career. From a geographic perspective, this checks out, growing up in Georgia and attending college at Georgia Tech. He’s still searching for his first PGA TOUR win and it could come on a course like Waialae CC.

Second on the list is Si Woo Kim, who remains one of golf’s great mysteries. He played through injuries for most of last year before locking up his long-term status with a PLAYERS win. While he’s certainly proven unpredictable over his career, he’s not immune to a hot streak. Back in 2016, he rattled off five straight top 20s, with only one coming outside of the PGA TOUR.

Luke Donald and Russell Knox are both golfers with a ton of potential and great course fits at Wailalae. They both struggled in 2017 so they should have low ownership across all contests this week.

The last trio could be considered “chalk specialists.” They are all household names and most gamers will know they have the fit the ideal play style needed at a classical course like Waialae.

Anti-Specialists

Jon Curran
Jonathan Randolph
Bill Haas
Whee Kim
James Hahn
Justin Thomas
Jonas Blixt
Ryan Palmer
Aaron Baddeley
Hudson Swafford
Zach Johnson

The first four names I would tread very carefully with this week. They all show a Specialist Rating less than -0.25, which suggests their expected output would be more than a shot worse than their baseline, over the course of four rounds.

Then we have someone like Justin Thomas, who doesn’t pass the eye test for course fit, but he’s on the record saying that most of the tee shots at Waialae really fit his eye. That is something the raw data couldn’t pick up, so feel free to invest in the defending champion if you have interest.

Ryan Palmer is in the same boat, having won here before. At the same time, he has finished outside the top 50 in 7 of his 12 visits. He’s also making his first start since returning from shoulder surgery. No thanks.

The last name I’ll mention is Zach Johnson, who shows up on this list even though all of his negative ratings are so small that it’s not that big of a deal. He’s proven he likes the layout here, and he’s generally been a step above this field in terms of class. That helps him get the job done here.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Kevin Kisner
J.J. Spaun
Jason Dufner
Webb Simpson
Austin Cook
Jordan Spieth
Russell Knox
Brian Harman
Cameron Smith
William McGirt
Chris Kirk
Ollie Schniederjans
Ben Martin
Gary Woodland
Marc Leishman
Jimmy Walker
Stewart Cink
Luke Donald
Brian Gay
Si Woo Kim
Peter Uihlein

Again we have a tie for 20th, so we get a Top 21. Building some lineups with the core from above would probably not be a bad idea.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014).

Form looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA, Web, and Euro).

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG:Total Form Bermuda Par 70 Coastal Specialist Rating
Ollie Schniederjans $8,300 $9,400 $14,700 1.077 0.993 0.875 0.222 0.674 0.59
Si Woo Kim $8,500 $10,000 $15,100 0.71 4.707 0.828 0.318 0.352 0.5
Luke Donald $7,000 $8,600 $13,100 1.137 0 0.612 0.128 0.707 0.482
Colt Knost $6,600 NA $11,100 0.736 0 0.676 0.115 0.641 0.477
Brian Gay $7,900 $8,100 $13,900 0.344 15.201 0.386 0.075 0.717 0.393
J.J. Spaun $7,600 $9,000 $14,700 0.955 16.701 0 0 0.97 0.323
Ryan Armour $6,900 $8,100 $14,000 0.48 11.415 0.407 0.34 0.186 0.311
John Peterson $6,900 $7,800 $11,600 0.34 0 0.376 0.026 0.515 0.305
Kelly Kraft $7,300 $8,000 $12,300 0.309 8.701 -0.643 0.401 1.136 0.298
Russell Knox $7,100 $9,500 $14,400 1.425 5.201 0.319 0.056 0.389 0.255
Peter Malnati $6,900 $8,200 $11,500 0.094 -3.507 0.385 -0.025 0.339 0.233
Rory Sabbatini $6,600 $7,400 $11,700 0.497 -2.007 0.225 0.334 0.089 0.216
Fabian Gomez $7,100 $7,800 $12,700 0.487 0.701 0.406 0.126 0.087 0.206
Webb Simpson $9,300 $10,800 $15,900 1.562 6.993 0.134 0.432 0.041 0.202
Ben Martin $7,200 $8,700 $13,100 0.839 8.201 0.523 0.132 -0.051 0.201
Jason Dufner $7,300 $10,900 $15,400 1.443 9.214 0.24 0.176 0.177 0.198
Gary Woodland $7,800 $10,200 $16,100 1.546 0 0.208 -0.161 0.523 0.19
Matt Every $7,000 $7,100 $11,900 -0.339 -5.507 0.886 0.045 -0.406 0.175
Jason Kokrak $7,500 $9,100 $13,800 1.178 -0.007 0.366 -0.178 0.333 0.174
Richy Werenski $6,800 $8,000 $11,900 0.38 0.993 0 0 0.494 0.165
Robert Streb $7,300 $8,200 $12,600 1.116 0.993 -0.006 0.171 0.313 0.159
Jimmy Walker $7,200 $9,800 $13,900 1.6 0 0.119 -0.067 0.426 0.159
Kevin Kisner $10,100 $11,700 $16,800 1.42 20.415 0.133 0.206 0.136 0.158
Rob Oppenheim $7,100 $7,500 $11,800 0.24 0.701 -0.239 0 0.713 0.158
Brice Garnett $6,700 $7,800 $12,900 0.244 6.701 -0.079 0.078 0.46 0.153
Michael Thompson $6,600 $7,000 $12,200 0.477 11.201 0.074 -0.101 0.446 0.14
Brett Stegmaier $6,900 $7,300 $11,200 0.169 -0.507 0.394 0.392 -0.373 0.138
Cameron Smith $9,000 $9,300 $16,200 0.924 24.519 -0.104 0.041 0.465 0.134
Nicholas Lindheim $6,600 $7,800 $11,900 -0.12 11.701 0 0 0.388 0.129
Bronson Burgoon $6,900 $7,300 $11,600 0.485 -1.799 0 0 0.338 0.113
Sam Saunders $7,100 $7,600 $12,200 0.291 -2.007 0.332 -0.087 0.08 0.109
William McGirt $8,400 $9,500 $14,800 1.111 12.701 0.116 -0.144 0.323 0.098
Sangmoon Bae $7,000 $8,100 $11,600 0.734 0 0.116 0.016 0.158 0.097
Patton Kizzire $7,600 $9,400 $14,800 0.728 11.915 0.056 -0.542 0.744 0.086
D.A. Points $7,100 $7,100 $11,000 -0.109 -17.793 -0.107 0.097 0.265 0.085
Jerry Kelly $7,500 $8,000 $13,300 1.001 0 0.087 -0.058 0.216 0.082
Chez Reavie $8,000 $9,300 $14,900 1.29 0 -0.042 0.383 -0.095 0.082
Scott Brown $7,400 $9,100 $13,300 0.824 -2.007 0.245 0.105 -0.113 0.079
Scott Piercy $7,700 $9,200 $13,700 1.025 0 -0.157 0.266 0.086 0.065
Charles Howell III $8,800 $10,100 $15,800 1.312 -0.507 -0.29 0.008 0.472 0.063
Brian Stuard $7,800 $8,300 $13,800 0.601 9.201 -0.008 -0.242 0.425 0.058
Patrick Rodgers $7,200 $8,700 $13,200 0.695 -3.007 -0.486 -0.016 0.672 0.057
Tyrone Van Aswegen $7,000 $8,200 $12,100 0.389 4.701 -0.106 0.355 -0.08 0.056
Jordan Spieth $12,000 $12,800 $19,800 2.728 11.214 -0.348 0.035 0.475 0.054
Chris Kirk $7,100 $8,700 $14,000 1.185 12.701 0.154 0.086 -0.079 0.054
K.J. Choi $6,900 $7,600 $11,600 0.647 5.701 0.285 -0.133 -0.008 0.048
Tony Finau $8,900 $11,000 $16,300 1.637 0 -0.369 0.104 0.387 0.041
Brian Harman $10,600 $11,300 $17,400 1.23 28.415 0.217 -0.066 -0.055 0.032
Stewart Cink $6,800 $9,100 $12,800 1.176 8.701 0.073 -0.008 0.018 0.028
Morgan Hoffmann $7,100 $7,900 $12,000 0.652 -2.507 -0.002 0.28 -0.253 0.009
Tom Hoge $7,100 $7,800 $12,300 0.423 8.201 -0.129 0.006 0.145 0.008
Harris English $6,800 $8,100 $12,700 1.222 -6.007 -0.182 0.274 -0.089 0.001
Ben Silverman $6,800 $8,100 $13,100 1.319 12.201 0 0 0 0
Austin Cook $7,600 $9,700 $14,900 1.754 23.415 0 0 0 0
Peter Uihlein $7,700 $9,400 $15,200 0.869 16.73 0 0 0 0
Aaron Wise $7,000 $7,600 $13,200 0.918 12.201 0 0 0 0
Tyler Duncan $6,900 $7,700 $12,300 0.952 7.701 0 0 0 0
Daisuke Kataoka $7,300 $7,700 $11,400 1.407 0 0 0 0 0
Andrew Landry $7,000 $8,100 $12,900 0.494 13.701 0 0 0 0
Seamus Power $7,200 $8,300 $12,700 1.022 0.993 0 0 0 0
Brandon Harkins $7,000 $8,300 $12,200 0.929 2.201 0 0 0 0
Ted Potter, Jr. $7,100 $7,500 $12,100 0.245 12.201 0 0 0 0
Stephan Jaeger $6,900 $7,800 $12,000 0.098 7.201 0 0 0 0
Joel Dahmen $6,900 $7,300 $11,000 0.296 2.201 0 0 0 0
Keith Mitchell $7,200 $7,100 $11,600 0.096 3.201 0 0 0 0
Conrad Shindler $6,700 $7,200 $11,100 0.151 0.993 0 0 0 0
Mac Hughes $7,000 $8,600 $12,300 0.828 -1.507 0 0 0 0
Xinjun Zhang $7,200 $7,300 $11,300 0.825 -1.799 0 0 0 0
Corey Conners $6,700 $7,700 $11,700 -0.775 6.201 0 0 0 0
Nate Lashley $7,200 $7,100 $11,200 -0.359 2.701 0 0 0 0
Tom Lovelady $7,200 $7,000 $11,100 -0.179 0.993 0 0 0 0
Satoshi Kodaira $6,800 $8,900 $12,700 0.149 0 0 0 0 0
Andrew Putnam $7,200 $7,100 $11,300 -0.362 0.993 0 0 0 0
Dominic Bozzelli $6,800 $8,500 $11,200 0.14 0 0 0 0 0
Beau Hossler $7,000 $8,600 $12,200 0.595 -1.299 0 0 0 0
Matt Atkins $6,600 $7,000 $10,800 -0.65 0.993 0 0 0 0
Hyung-Sung Kim $6,700 $7,500 $11,200 0.062 0 0 0 0 0
Tatsuya Kodai $7,100 $7,000 $10,800 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tyler Ota $6,900 $7,000 $10,600 0 0 0 0 0 0
Andrew Yun $6,700 NA NA -2.351 0.993 0 0 0 0
Sam Ryder $7,200 $7,000 $11,000 -0.401 0.701 0 0 0 0
Abraham Ancer $7,100 $7,200 $11,600 -0.181 0 0 0 0 0
Roberto Diaz $6,600 $7,300 $10,700 -0.622 0.701 0 0 0 0
Yusaku Miyazato $6,800 $8,600 $12,400 -0.571 0 0 0 0 0
Shugo Imahira $6,800 $7,600 $12,200 -1.353 0 0 0 0 0
Omar Uresti $6,700 $7,000 $10,600 -1.442 0 0 0 0 0
Eric Dugas $6,800 $7,000 $10,600 -1.555 0 0 0 0 0
Ethan Tracy $6,800 $7,300 $11,000 0.119 -0.007 0 0 0 0
Martin Piller $6,700 $7,500 $11,700 0.145 -3.007 0 0 0 0
Adam Schenk $6,600 $7,800 $11,500 0.317 -10.007 0 0 0 0
Talor Gooch $6,700 $7,700 $11,900 0.302 -9.35 0 0 0 0
Marty Dou $7,100 $7,000 $11,000 -0.855 -0.007 0 0 0 0
Lanto Griffin $6,600 $7,000 $11,000 -0.416 -2.007 0 0 0 0
Kyle Thompson $6,900 NA NA -1.003 -4.007 0 0 0 0
Daniel Berger $8,700 $11,100 $16,200 1.639 8.714 0.171 0.273 -0.448 -0.001
Sean O’Hair $7,400 $9,700 $13,400 0.865 0.993 0.118 0.116 -0.248 -0.005
Marc Leishman $11,100 $11,400 $17,600 1.751 25.519 -0.243 -0.126 0.352 -0.006
Xander Schauffele $8,600 $9,900 $15,900 1.286 1.714 0 0.848 -0.911 -0.021
John Huh $7,000 $7,900 $12,100 0.647 5.201 -0.081 -0.283 0.3 -0.021
Jamie Lovemark $8,100 $9,600 $15,000 1.113 -4.007 -0.021 -0.098 0.045 -0.025
Danny Lee $7,300 $9,000 $13,200 1.035 -1.507 -0.103 0.277 -0.25 -0.025
Billy Hurley III $7,200 $7,200 $11,300 0.681 -5.007 0.019 0.277 -0.373 -0.026
Vaughn Taylor $6,800 $8,400 $12,700 0.965 12.701 -0.003 0.061 -0.143 -0.028
Emiliano Grillo $7,900 $8,400 $14,600 1.459 0 -0.009 -0.219 0.141 -0.029
Harold Varner III $6,700 $8,800 $13,400 0.904 13.079 0.08 0.003 -0.178 -0.032
Michael Kim $6,900 $7,500 $11,700 0.657 -1.007 0.034 -0.013 -0.12 -0.033
Jim Herman $7,000 $7,300 $11,900 0.666 2.201 0.067 -0.442 0.251 -0.041
Blayne Barber $7,000 $7,800 $12,600 0.624 7.201 -0.012 -0.326 0.197 -0.047
Kyle Stanley $7,300 $9,400 $14,500 0.853 -2.786 -0.111 0.044 -0.109 -0.059
Mark Wilson $6,700 $7,000 $10,800 0 -5.007 -0.007 0.101 -0.271 -0.059
Wesley Bryan $7,400 $8,800 $13,500 0.746 0.214 0 -0.233 0 -0.078
Keegan Bradley $7,400 $9,200 $14,400 1.518 0 -0.273 -0.086 0.122 -0.079
Smylie Kaufman $6,600 $7,900 $12,700 0.649 -4.507 0.629 -0.454 -0.413 -0.079
Matt Jones $7,300 $7,600 $12,700 0.913 3.805 -0.238 -0.267 0.258 -0.082
J.J. Henry $6,600 $7,500 $11,300 0.177 4.701 -0.21 0.193 -0.256 -0.091
Zach Johnson $9,500 $10,500 $16,400 1.729 12.701 -0.06 -0.172 -0.05 -0.094
Russell Henley $9,200 $9,800 $16,400 1.277 6.214 -0.089 0.021 -0.231 -0.1
Chris Stroud $7,700 $8,500 $13,900 0.674 10.415 -0.196 0.042 -0.164 -0.106
Jonathan Byrd $6,600 $7,200 $11,600 0.485 -2.507 -0.068 -0.375 0.111 -0.11
Chad Campbell $6,900 $8,400 $12,200 0.963 0.993 -0.196 0.178 -0.316 -0.111
Troy Merritt $7,200 $7,300 $11,300 0.398 1.701 0.06 -0.15 -0.247 -0.112
Kevin Na $7,400 $9,500 $14,600 1.688 0 0.04 -0.016 -0.374 -0.117
Greg Chalmers $6,600 $7,000 $11,100 -0.039 4.798 0.146 -0.079 -0.481 -0.138
Luke List $7,500 $8,500 $14,300 1.338 0 0.303 -0.286 -0.444 -0.142
Hudson Swafford $7,300 $8,800 $14,100 0.876 5.415 -0.242 -0.128 -0.097 -0.156
Aaron Baddeley $6,800 $7,900 $12,200 0.757 -3.007 -0.137 -0.235 -0.101 -0.158
Ryan Palmer $7,000 $8,700 $13,300 1.526 0 -0.12 -0.009 -0.355 -0.161
Vijay Singh $7,000 $7,400 $11,800 0.58 0 0.219 -0.038 -0.732 -0.183
Jonas Blixt $6,800 $7,700 $12,600 0.519 -7.63 -0.077 -0.418 -0.055 -0.184
Ryan Blaum $6,700 $7,500 $11,200 0.719 -1.507 0 -0.258 -0.3 -0.186
Kevin Tway $6,800 $8,100 $12,500 0.447 -0.507 0 -0.138 -0.425 -0.188
Justin Thomas $11,600 $12,600 $19,400 1.937 2.214 -0.186 -0.238 -0.287 -0.237
Steve Wheatcroft $6,700 $7,000 $11,200 0.3 -5.007 0.305 -0.304 -0.718 -0.239
Cody Gribble $6,600 $7,500 $11,900 0.406 0 0.205 -0.941 0 -0.245
James Hahn $7,600 $8,700 $13,500 0.814 0 -0.239 -0.029 -0.497 -0.255
Whee Kim $6,900 $8,300 $12,800 0.587 0.993 -0.201 -0.542 -0.031 -0.258
Bill Haas $8,200 $10,400 $15,200 1.69 -0.507 -0.21 -0.223 -0.4 -0.278
Jonathan Randolph $6,700 $7,400 $11,400 -0.008 -4.799 -0.254 -0.303 -0.376 -0.311
Cameron Tringale $7,000 $7,600 $12,000 0.921 0.993 0.021 -0.343 -0.614 -0.312
Jon Curran $6,800 $7,000 $11,000 0.55 -6.507 -0.594 -0.096 -0.285 -0.325

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.