Searching for a Specialist: The Barclays

by Josh Culp (futureoffantasy) Last Updated 2016-08-25 12:46:29

Welcome back to THE SEARCH.

I always start with a recap of last week but last week was another one to forget. Ben Martin forgot how to putt, Stuart Appleby put himself in a giant hole on Thursday. Kevin Kisner was the only one that really did his part with a nice T10 finish.

On top of that, one of the anti-specialists Hideki Matsuyama snagged a T3. That puts the top-10 rate for anti-specialists up to 9%, still nearly half of what the specialists bring in (17%). I guess when it rains it pours, but it sets us up for a nice bounce-back opportunity.

Long-term readers of this article should know that this recent slump is not likely to last.

In order to break that slump this week we will look at performance on Long Courses, Bentgrass Greens, and Difficult Courses.

Here we go…

Long Courses

When looking at length of PGA TOUR courses, there are a few ways to look at length. You can look at a hole-by-hole view and determine how many holes are longer than average. You can look at total yardage and divide it by the par of the course (70/71/72). Or you can keep it simple and look at raw yardage.

We will look at raw yardage, and bucket any course over 7,400 yards as a LONG COURSE. These courses generally put a big emphasis on long-iron play but there are always exceptions for golfers that thrive on long courses due to short-game prowess.

The Black Course at Bethpage Start Park checks in at 7,468 yards this week so it fits the bill of long.

The Top 10 Long Course Specialists are:

Brandt Snedeker (1.309 sg:long vs. 0.791 sg:total)
Michael Kim (0.434 sg:long vs. -0.025 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (0.68 sg:long vs. 0.239 sg:total)
Harold Varner III (0.607 sg:long vs. 0.168 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.081 sg:long vs. 0.668 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (1.161 sg:long vs. 0.77 sg:total)
Daniel Summerhays (0.975 sg:long vs. 0.617 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.223 sg:long vs. -0.128 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (1.423 sg:long vs. 1.073 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (1.023 sg:long vs. 0.699 sg:total)

The list above is really a mix of play styles. You have some bombers, you have some great iron players, and you have some that rely on their short game.

Snedeker is one that relies more on his short game but seems to get the job done when the course gets long. He’s finished top 25 in 14 of his last 22 starts on lengthy layouts. Of course, he’s not always the most consistent which prevents him from being a knockout play, but his performance on long courses makes him intriguing.

Harold Varner III is a really interesting name. He’s missed three straight cuts but has four top 10s on the season and costs just $5,900 this week. He may be a little guy but he packs a big punch off the tee, and should be able to sneak past the cut this week as long as he putts to field average. If he has a good putting week then a top 20 could be in the cards.

J.B. Holmes is the prototype of who you would expect to see on this list. He’s one of the longest on TOUR, one of the “super bombers” if you will. He’ll be hitting two or three less clubs in on some of the lengthy par 4s this week, which is why he starts with a nice advantage. He just needs to avoid the big number.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 51

Bentgrass Greens

We’ve had a mix of bentgrass and bermuda recently, but Bethpage Black features speedy bentgrass surfaces.

Bentgrass greens are generally more receptive which favors the elite ball-strikers and sometimes eliminates the need for elite putting. If the greens are more receptive, you’ll be landing closer to the hole and won’t need the putting skills quite as much.

The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists remaining:

Robert Garrigus (0.429 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.003 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (1.463 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.113 sg:total)
Michael Kim (0.323 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.025 sg:total)
Russell Henley (0.553 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.235 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (0.446 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.141 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (2.345 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.117 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (0.441 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.239 sg:total)
Brandt Snedeker (0.951 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.791 sg:total)
Henrik Stenson (1.822 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.663 sg:total)
David Hearn (0.516 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.358 sg:total)

Kim, Reifers, and Sneds make a second appearance. That could be a very interesting GPP core this week as Kim and Reifers shouldn’t attrack much ownership but the numbers so far suggest they may have the upside.

Rory makes an appearance here, gaining a remarkable 2.345 strokes per round on bentgrass, since 2014. That plays into the narrative that bentgrass is often more receptive because we know Rory thrives in soft conditions but with bentgrass he doesn’t need the course to be wet to be receptive.

Fowler gaining 1.463 strokes per round on bentgrass makes him a great GPP play. His lack of top-heavy results as of late will continue to lower his ownership so we should attack when the odds are in our favor.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 35

Hard Courses

Last, but not least, we have difficult courses.

This week’s course played to a field average of 0.718 strokes over par (per round) back in 2012. That was on a week where many of the golfers were quoted saying it was playing the easiest it ever will play.

Even with easier conditions, it was right on the borderline of the 0.75 strokes over par criteria that I use for tough courses. This week should be different. Adam Hadwin just said on Twitter today, “Bethpage Black is no joke. Will be one of the hardest we play all year. Hope you like seeing pars!!”

Based on that quote as well as quotes in 2012, I would set the over/under for field scoring this week at 1.25 strokes over par, per round.

When courses get tougher, the cream usually rises to the top. Sometimes it’s due to their raw golf talent, other times it’s due to what going on inside their head. Golfers like Jordan Spieth have great course management and know how to miss in the right spots. That becomes even more crucial on a tough course like Bethpage Black.

We lose the following golfers because their Hard Course performance is lower than their baseline:

Rory Mcilroy
Brandt Snedeker
Justin Rose
Kyle Reifers
Russell Henley
David Hearn
Cameron Tringale
Jerry Kelly

Jerry Kelly was the most extreme here, as he’s gained 0.427 strokes fewer per round on tough tracks since 2014, compared to his baseline. When I think of Kelly, I think of resort-style golf, not a Championship-style venue. Rory, Snedeker, and Rose were all very close, but not the specialists we are looking for.

On the flip side, Dustin Johnson feasts on tough tracks. He’s finished top 25 in 18 of his last 22 starts on hard courses. That’s an 82% rate, which crushes his baseline during that time period of 68 percent. I guess when you’re as talented as he is, you need a course that lets you showcase those skills.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 9

Baseline Performance

If we look at our filter for baseline strokes gained, we see that two golfers don’t fit the criteria.

Robert Garrigus
Michael Kim

Using stats since 2014 we see that Garrigus has not been the most consistent but he’s definitely found his form as of late, making him a solid GPP play. Michael Kim really hasn’t shown enough upside for me to fully support, but the stats suggest he’s a good bet for a cut made this week.

The Specialists

Jordan Spieth
Scott Piercy
Henrik Stenson
Rickie Fowler
Billy Hurley III
J.B. Holmes
Shawn Stefani

Our specialist this week is Jordan Spieth!

Spieth is making his debut at Bethpage Black so won’t have any course history on his side. Previously he’s been a specialist four times, posting a win at the Hyundai ToC, a runner-up finish at the Masters, a 13th-place finish at the Shell Houston and a missed cut at the Northern Trust. He generally shows up when the stats say he should.

Stenson and Fowler are no-brainers here. They will love the tough tee-to-green test that Bethpage provides.

J.B. Holmes looks like one of the top value plays at just $6,400 this week. He should fit the course beautifully and top 30s in both of his previous two trips to Bethpage support that claim.

Piercy, Hurley III, and Stefani make for an interesting group this week. They technically fit the criteria of having a baseline strokes gained greater than zero, but the field average for Baseline Strokes Gained this week is 0.;51 so they are starting at quite a disadvantage against this strong field. This is a filter I will reconsider in the future after more testing but for now I would consider them solid GPP options.

The Anti-Specialists

The golfers below are negative in all angles this week. Basically the exact opposite of our specialists and we should try to avoid them this week or limit our exposure at the very least.

Last week we saw Matsuyama thrive out of this list, but the other four all finished outside the top 20. This week the anti-specialists are:

Fabian Gomez
Jason Dufner
Spencer Levin
Vaughn Taylor
David Toms
Boo Weekley
Bryce Molder
Ryan Palmer
Hideki Matsuyama
Jason Bohn
Brian Stuard
Webb Simpson
Mark Hubbard
Francesco Molinari
Alex Cejka
Justin Thomas
Robert Streb
Harris English
Martin Laird
Keegan Bradley
Charles Howell III
Jason Day
Chris Kirk
Bill Haas

Wow! That is quite the lengthy list this week. It’s also pretty star-studded with golfers like Matsuyama, Jason Day, Dufner, and Haas featured.

Basically Bethpage Black is a terrible fit for 20% of the field. You don’t have to completely fade this list, but if you need a tie-breaker or want to narrow down your list of targets this week, this list is a good place to start.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2013-14),

Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks (including European Tour) and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained with positive numbers being a good thing.