Searching for a Specialist: THE CJ CUP

Welcome to South Korea as we ready for THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES.

Last year was the inaugural edition of the event which features a very generous purse for a no-cut, 78-man field.

The course is The Club at Nine Bridges. It’s a par 72 that plays just under 7,200 yards.

Reviewing our search from last week, our specialist was Ryan Moore and boy did he put up a stinker. It should be easy to rebound from that since we can only improve from there.

This week we look at performance on Bentgrass Greens, Par 72 courses, performance in No-Cut Events, performance on Easy-to-Hit Fairways, and performance on Easy-to-Hit Greens.

Here we go …

Bentgrass Greens

The original idea behind Nine Bridges was to build an elite golfing club that mirrored any experience you’d find in the States.

The original visionary was the grandson of the Samsung founder. He lived in California and was a member at Riviera CC. As a part of his thought process, he brought “the finest western turf” to Nine Bridges, which in his mind was bentgrass.

It really does look fantastic on TV, so I think he made a wise decision.

The 10 Bentgrass Specialists:

Peter Uihlein (1.908 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.219 sg:total)
Abraham Ancer (1.458 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.949 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.645 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.255 sg:total)
Joel Dahmen (1.315 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.949 sg:total)
Ernie Els (0.64 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.29 sg:total)
Andrew Putnam (1.183 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.849 sg:total)
Whee Kim (0.848 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.549 sg:total)
Michael Kim (0.821 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.545 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.648 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.422 sg:total)
Ryan Armour (1.137 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.922 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on bentgrass since 2014 are Brooks Koepka, Marc Leishman, Jason Day, Paul Casey, and Hideki Matsuyama.

Abraham Ancer has the 2nd highest split in this angle and he also has quotes to back up his support for his love of bentgrass greens.

Brooks Koepka was born and raised in Florida (bermudaland) but he does a lot of his damage on bentgrass greens which may favor his aggressive play style as it’s tougher to get long approach shots to hold on bermuda.

Par 72 Courses

Similar to the last few weeks we have another par 72 that is on the shorter side of the spectrum.

As a standard par 72 layout, golfers will have four par 5s to lean on, allowing them to play conservatively, if needed, on the rest of the course.

The Top 10 Par 72 Specialists:

Ryan Palmer (1.673 sg:par72 vs. 1.218 sg:total)
Byeong Hun An (1.997 sg:par72 vs. 1.561 sg:total)
Andrew Putnam (1.241 sg:par72 vs. 0.849 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (2.349 sg:par72 vs. 1.961 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (1.366 sg:par72 vs. 0.994 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.765 sg:par72 vs. 1.444 sg:total)
Danny Willett (0.754 sg:par72 vs. 0.434 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (1.151 sg:par72 vs. 0.837 sg:total)
Charles Howell III (1.874 sg:par72 vs. 1.575 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.883 sg:par72 vs. 1.63 sg:total)

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on par 72 courses since 2014 are Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Marc Leishman, Paul Casey, and Justin Thomas.

Par 72s allow aggressive golfers to attack but it also allows others to pick up some easy scoring looks. Some golfers rely on par-5 scoring more than others.

No-Cut Events

With four guaranteed rounds, a golfer is never truly out of contention.

Okay, that’s not true but if you hang around with your C game, then you can always get hot for a round or two and then rise into contention to win or backdoor a top 10.

Some golfers love the lack of cut-line pressure while others lose some of their edge when it comes to eking out cuts made.

The Top 10 No-Cut Specialists:

Cameron Smith (1.811 sg:no-cut vs. 1.196 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (2.915 sg:no-cut vs. 2.413 sg:total)
Tyrrell Hatton (2.416 sg:no-cut vs. 1.941 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.862 sg:no-cut vs. 1.422 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (1.35 sg:no-cut vs. 1.013 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.587 sg:no-cut vs. 2.35 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (1.801 sg:no-cut vs. 1.596 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (2.007 sg:no-cut vs. 1.84 sg:total)
Billy Horschel (1.572 sg:no-cut vs. 1.457 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.551 sg:no-cut vs. 1.485 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in no-cut events since 2014 are Justin Thomas, Paul Casey, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, and Marc Leishman.

Justin Thomas remains the King of No Cuts. He even managed a top 5 last week in Malaysia without his best stuff. If you give him four rounds to shine, he will probably do just that in at least one or two of those rounds.

Easy-to-Hit Fairways
The field averaged roughly 72 percent of fairways hit last year, in the augural edition of this event.

Similar to a Muirfield Village, the landing areas are very generous here but you can get in a lot of trouble around the greens.

The Top 10 Easy Fairway Specialists:

Keith Mitchell (1.701 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.1 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (2.177 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.596 sg:total)
Danny Willett (0.875 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.434 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (2.349 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.907 sg:total)
Michael Kim (0.922 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.545 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.763 sg:easy fairways vs. 2.4 sg:total)
Brice Garnett (0.92 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.56 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (1.775 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.446 sg:total)
Whee Kim (0.859 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.549 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (2.265 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.961 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on easy-to-hit fairways since 2014 are Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Marc Leishman, Justin Thomas, and Paul Casey.

Easy fairways allow the wildmen to survive without as many penalty strokes. It also allows the straight shooters to hit nearly every fairway. There is more than one way to gain an edge on this type of course.

Easy-to-Hit Greens

Despite the rough weather last year, the field managed to pelt roughly 70 percent of greens in regulation.

That is already a high clip but with calmer winds, we could see that go even higher.

The Top 10 Easy GIR Specialists:

Patton Kizzire (1.33 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.747 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (1.965 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.524 sg:total)
Billy Horschel (1.818 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.457 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (1.956 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.596 sg:total)
Brian Gay (1.323 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.982 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.271 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.935 sg:total)
Beau Hossler (1.651 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.328 sg:total)
Keith Mitchell (1.414 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.1 sg:total)
Austin Cook (1.836 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.54 sg:total)
Kevin Na (2.036 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.742 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on easy-to-hit greens since 2014 are Justin Thomas, Charles Howell III, Kevin Na, Marc Leishman, and Hideki Matsuyama.

Just like the Easy Fairway angle above, there are multiple routes to success here.

Some thrive on Easy GIR courses because it means fewer around-the-green shots. Guys that typically struggle with their short game may get a boost in that regard.

It can also help elite putters, because more GIRs gives them more looks with their best weapon in hand (putter).

The Specialists

Marc Leishman
Hideki Matsuyama

The specialist this week is Marc Leishman!

Article Image

Coming off a win at the CIMB Classic, Leishman looks like a good bet to ride that wave of momentum here in Korea.

The Aussie lost to JT in a playoff here last year, so he’s walked the walk already here on Jeju Island.

He’s very comfortable in this part of the world too, having spent some time in Korea early in his career.

Next up is Hideki who arrives off a pre-tourney WD last week. He ended the year in tremendous form so I’m not too concerned about that. I will check his pre-tourney transcript tomorrow morning to make sure he’s feeling good.

The Anti-Specialists

We have a few golfers that qualify as specialists this week but who does the opposite, grading out negatively in all of the angles?

Jason Dufner
Graeme McDowell
Adam Hadwin
Chez Reavie

This list is basically steady-shooting par makers that may have trouble keeping up if a birdiefest breaks out. Of course, Adam Hadwin might be the exception to that list, considering he’s fired a 59.

What I’m trying to say is these guys usually gain an edge with steady play, allowing them to make it through the cut. They can still play well this week but without a cut line to sweat, they do lose some of that advantage.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Hideki Matsuyama
Justin Thomas
Marc Leishman
Brooks Koepka
Paul Casey
Xander Schauffele
Gary Woodland
Tyrrell Hatton
Byeong Hun An
Jason Day
Louis Oosthuizen
Billy Horschel
Kyle Stanley
Kevin Na
Charles Howell III
Adam Scott
Emiliano Grillo
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Cameron Smith
Charl Schwartzel

Hideki ended the season on a hot streak so his baseline and form keep up with JT while his course fit gives him the edge. They are actually tied at the top with a Simple Rating Score of 21.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made small adjustments for sample sizes but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at SGTotal, FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Bent Easy Fairways No Cut Par 72 Easy GIR Specialist Rating Simple Rating
Michael Kim $6,600 $7,000 $11,700 0.545 0 -7.625 0.276 0.376 0 0.1 0.215 0.193 359
Marc Leishman $10,200 $11,700 $17,100 1.961 2.618 52.694 0.094 0.304 0.065 0.389 0.077 0.186 35
Danny Willett $6,700 $8,200 $11,900 0.434 0 3.993 0.186 0.442 -0.2 0.321 0 0.15 330
Hideki Matsuyama $10,400 $11,600 $17,200 2.4 0 55.666 0.08 0.362 0.018 0.061 0.185 0.141 21
Xander Schauffele $9,400 $10,900 $15,700 1.596 -1.382 46.986 0.07 0.581 0.204 -0.522 0.36 0.139 85
Abraham Ancer $7,700 $8,700 $14,200 0.949 0 33.278 0.509 0.211 0 -0.03 -0.038 0.131 207
Cameron Smith $9,000 $10,000 $15,600 1.196 2.465 48.194 -0.324 0.094 0.615 0.041 0.2 0.125 154
Whee Kim $6,600 $7,400 $12,800 0.549 2.157 11.393 0.299 0.31 0 0.165 -0.16 0.123 301
Kevin Tway $7,500 $9,800 $13,700 1.114 0.926 35.893 0.148 0.045 0 0.203 0.197 0.119 176
Brice Garnett $6,700 $7,600 $11,600 0.56 0 21.778 -0.002 0.36 0 0.113 0.091 0.112 274
Keith Mitchell $7,100 $7,900 $12,700 1.1 0 18.278 0 0.601 0 -0.455 0.314 0.092 228
Kyle Stanley $8,200 $9,500 $14,600 1.422 1.542 49.694 0.225 -0.326 0.439 0.25 -0.141 0.089 127
Justin Thomas $11,600 $13,100 $19,000 2.413 2.618 69.694 -0.135 -0.001 0.503 0.07 -0.002 0.087 21
Charles Howell III $7,700 $9,400 $14,300 1.575 1.542 26.778 -0.216 0.028 0.027 0.299 0.268 0.081 131
Charl Schwartzel $7,200 $9,000 $13,200 1.524 0.926 18.109 0.117 -0.243 0.054 0.034 0.441 0.08 162
Jimmy Walker $6,800 $8,700 $12,600 1.446 0 5.603 -0.188 0.329 0.044 0.146 0.051 0.076 225
Peter Uihlein $6,900 $8,400 $12,800 1.219 0 13.241 0.689 0.055 0 -0.017 -0.363 0.073 224
Beau Hossler $7,300 $8,500 $13,700 1.328 0 27.241 -0.016 -0.027 0 -0.015 0.322 0.053 187
Byeong Hun An $8,700 $9,700 $15,100 1.561 1.849 40.486 0.116 -0.082 -0.409 0.437 0.151 0.043 115
Jamie Lovemark $6,800 $8,500 $13,000 1.329 2.003 3.858 -0.27 0.116 0 0.213 0.138 0.04 258
Pat Perez $7,000 $8,800 $13,000 1.519 2.003 7.176 -0.145 0.144 0.027 0.112 0.048 0.037 212
Joaquin Niemann $7,600 $9,900 $14,300 1.718 0 -1.787 0.171 0 0 0 0 0.034 206
Stewart Cink $7,000 $8,900 $13,200 1.406 0.772 13.395 0.097 0.007 0 -0.073 0.09 0.024 207
Charley Hoffman $7,100 $9,700 $12,600 1.63 0 10.074 0.044 0.198 -0.236 0.254 -0.142 0.023 183
Joel Dahmen $6,900 $7,400 $12,000 0.949 0 4.375 0.365 0.124 0 -0.524 0.123 0.018 305
Ian Poulter $7,600 $9,600 $14,300 1.521 1.695 7.148 0.087 -0.195 0.039 0.223 -0.102 0.01 216
C.T. Pan $7,800 $8,600 $14,400 1.114 0.157 31.986 0.092 0.096 0 -0.162 0.02 0.009 207
Kevin Chappell $7,300 $9,200 $13,700 1.485 0 16.895 0.042 0.22 0.066 0.189 -0.481 0.007 188
Billy Horschel $9,700 $10,300 $15,800 1.457 0 58.035 -0.289 -0.048 0.115 -0.109 0.361 0.006 123
Scott Piercy $6,800 $7,600 $12,600 1.013 0 11.431 -0.257 -0.065 0.336 -0.192 0.202 0.005 273
Sungjae Im $8,000 $8,400 $14,700 1.123 0 29.914 0 0 0 0 0 0 207
Shubhankar Sharma $7,200 $8,300 $13,600 0.776 0 10.516 0 0 0 0 0 0 312
Hyun-Woo Ryu $6,500 $7,400 $10,900 0.854 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 331
Tae Hee Lee $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 373
Dong Seop Maeng $6,200 $7,000 $10,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 373
Doyeob Mun $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 373
Sanghyun Park NA NA NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 373
Hyungjoon Lee $6,200 $7,000 $10,400 -0.226 -0.305 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 388
Kyounghoon Lee $6,300 $7,000 $10,800 -0.144 0.157 -6.332 0 0 0 0 0 0 409
Minchel Choi $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 -0.983 0 -6.972 0 0 0 0 0 0 417
Andrew Putnam $6,700 $7,700 $12,000 0.849 0 16.986 0.334 -0.103 0 0.392 -0.634 -0.002 292
Patton Kizzire $6,300 $7,100 $11,600 0.747 0 10.666 -0.41 -0.17 0 -0.025 0.583 -0.004 324
Brooks Koepka $11,200 $12,300 $18,200 2.255 0 55.184 0.39 0.165 -0.468 0.074 -0.183 -0.004 68
Paul Casey $9,900 $11,300 $16,100 2.35 1.542 42.702 0.007 0.005 0.238 0.047 -0.32 -0.005 78
Sung Kang $6,400 $7,100 $12,000 0.726 0.003 -1.372 0.168 0 0 0.008 -0.246 -0.014 374
Brian Harman $7,000 $9,300 $12,500 1.356 2.003 -2.043 -0.05 -0.036 -0.044 0.067 -0.019 -0.016 301
J.J. Spaun $6,700 $7,200 $12,200 0.935 0 7.776 -0.514 0.128 0 -0.041 0.336 -0.018 321
Brian Gay $6,300 $7,700 $11,700 0.982 0 3.986 -0.323 0.104 0 -0.219 0.341 -0.02 329
Gary Woodland $9,100 $11,000 $15,500 1.72 0.465 57.194 -0.119 -0.043 -0.164 -0.108 0.29 -0.029 94
Brian Stuard $6,500 $7,500 $11,300 0.645 0 29.393 -0.051 -0.115 0 -0.135 0.151 -0.03 291
Austin Cook $7,400 $8,400 $13,100 1.54 0 28.986 -0.191 -0.213 0 -0.045 0.296 -0.031 171
Chesson Hadley $7,800 $8,700 $14,500 0.994 0 19.431 -0.443 -0.075 0 0.372 -0.018 -0.033 276
Si Woo Kim $7,400 $8,600 $14,300 0.837 0.311 24.486 0.003 -0.12 -0.263 0.314 -0.107 -0.035 297
Alex Noren $8,900 $10,500 $15,400 1.768 0 16.749 -0.154 0 -0.096 0.101 -0.028 -0.035 165
Ryan Armour $6,400 $7,500 $12,000 0.922 0 12.486 0.215 0.005 0 -0.385 -0.041 -0.041 312
J.B. Holmes $7,500 $8,900 $14,100 1.548 -0.92 32.185 -0.211 0.109 -0.228 0.22 -0.131 -0.048 165
Adam Scott $9,200 $10,700 $15,700 2.138 1.234 25.457 -0.225 -0.017 -0.118 0.068 0.014 -0.056 135
Jason Day $10,600 $11,900 $17,300 2.723 1.849 26.356 -0.148 -0.193 -0.099 -0.133 0.246 -0.065 117
Tyrrell Hatton $9,500 $9,600 $15,500 1.941 0 50.975 -0.206 -0.109 0.475 -0.798 0.255 -0.077 97
Nick Watney $6,900 $8,100 $12,300 1.111 0 28.858 -0.419 -0.003 0 -0.021 0.049 -0.079 251
Ryan Moore $8,300 $10,600 $14,700 1.688 0 10.185 -0.342 -0.087 0.036 0.018 -0.02 -0.079 212
Emiliano Grillo $8,800 $9,600 $15,100 1.685 0.465 41.276 -0.125 0.153 -0.564 0.111 0.018 -0.082 142
Louis Oosthuizen $8,600 $10,600 $15,600 1.907 0 41.003 -0.264 0.441 -0.498 0.099 -0.209 -0.086 118
Ernie Els $6,300 $7,100 $10,900 0.29 0 6.046 0.35 -0.474 -0.12 -0.138 -0.073 -0.091 388
James Hahn $6,200 $7,500 $11,400 1.022 0.465 7.608 -0.09 -0.29 -0.091 0.044 -0.066 -0.098 323
Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,900 $10,800 $14,400 1.84 1.849 25.486 -0.054 -0.541 0.167 -0.059 -0.054 -0.108 154
Rod Pampling $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 0.02 -0.458 0 -0.071 -0.095 0 -0.235 -0.182 -0.117 406
Kevin Na $8,100 $9,500 $14,500 1.742 0.157 41.384 -0.145 -0.098 -0.367 -0.315 0.294 -0.126 128
Brandt Snedeker $8,500 $10,100 $14,700 1.712 0 13.861 0.054 -0.148 -0.518 0.022 -0.073 -0.133 194
Chez Reavie $7,000 $8,300 $12,600 1.462 1.695 24.966 -0.233 -0.199 -0.178 -0.09 -0.041 -0.148 219
Adam Hadwin $7,100 $9,100 $12,600 1.405 0.157 34.713 -0.208 -0.246 -0.121 -0.17 -0.041 -0.157 210
Ted Potter, Jr. $6,600 $7,300 $11,600 0.66 0 11.741 -0.028 0.132 0 -0.965 0.063 -0.159 352
Branden Grace $8,400 NA NA 1.697 1.695 10.913 0.023 -0.215 -0.359 -0.118 -0.191 -0.172 215
Brendan Steele $6,600 $7,800 $12,100 1.444 0 -4.242 -0.482 -0.331 -0.326 0.321 -0.068 -0.177 316
Jason Kokrak $6,800 $8,400 $12,600 1.302 0 32.986 -0.202 -0.226 0 -0.297 -0.18 -0.181 233
Ryan Palmer $6,500 $7,900 $12,100 1.218 0 8.176 -0.23 -0.764 -0.122 0.455 -0.645 -0.261 306
Graeme Mcdowell $6,500 $8,000 $11,900 1.106 -0.612 -7.757 -0.129 -0.681 -0.118 -0.129 -0.324 -0.276 377
Jason Dufner $6,400 $7,800 $12,100 1.376 0 -6.16 -0.291 -0.34 -0.646 -0.058 -0.205 -0.308 334

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.