Searching for a Specialist: The Masters
The search for a specialist continues this week as the stakes are raised for the first major of the 2015-16 season.
Last week we got 5-of-7 specialists through the cut, but Patrick Reed provided the lone top 10. Not a terrible week, but definitely a step down from the Puerto Rico Open.
This week’s search will look at performance on Par 72s, Hard Courses, Long Courses and finish up with Bentgrass Greens.
Here we go…
Par 72 Courses
Augusta National Golf Club is lengthy par 72 layout. The par is the important part here since it means four par 5s per round, 20 on the week.
Let’s start off by looking at golfer’s that perform better on par 72 layouts when compared to their typical week-to-week output.
The Top 10 Par 72 Course Specialists are:
Rafael Cabrera-Bello (1.209 sg:par72 vs. 0.591 sg:total)
Smylie Kaufman (1.226 sg:par72 vs. 0.745 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (1.235 sg:par72 vs. 0.783 sg:total)
Kevin Na (1.423 sg:par72 vs. 1.063 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (0.898 sg:par72 vs. 0.544 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (1.463 sg:par72 vs. 1.11 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (1.218 sg:par72 vs. 0.875 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (2.054 sg:par72 vs. 1.732 sg:total)
Vaughn Taylor (1.034 sg:par72 vs. 0.714 sg:total)
Zach Johnson (1.257 sg:par72 vs. 0.946 sg:total)
We start off with a disclaimer here. There are some smaller sample sizes in the list above. Cabrera-Bello, Smylie, Grillo, and Vaughn Taylor all have less than 40 Par 72 rounds in their sample. Not saying to ignore those golfers, but keep that in mind before you get carried away with these raw numbers.
Sadly we say goodbye to Rickie Fowler at this point of our search. Since the start of the 2013-14 season, he loses .252 strokes per round more on par 72 layouts. He makes up for it with his fantastic bentgrass performance, and I do still like him this week. He’s just not our specialist.
In addition to Fowler, a couple other elite golfers get scratched off our list. That includes: Henrik Stenson, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, and even Jason Day.
Don’t throw up the red flags for those names above. Most it them just suffer from a very high baseline, and they have to perform worse somewhere. Not the true specialists we are looking for at Augusta National.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 44
Hard Courses
We talked about how Augusta National is a lengthy par 72, but it’s also very difficult.
You may not think that based on last year’s tournament, but the conditions were unusually soft and score-able last year. Even then, the field still averaged 0.536 strokes over par.
We’re looking for grinders here. The type of golfers that can manage that even-par round despite not having their A game.
The top 10 remaining Hard Course Specialists:
Jordan Spieth (2.348 sg:hard vs. 1.732 sg:total)
Darren Clarke (-1.398 sg:hard vs. -1.928 sg:total)
Ryan Moore (1.272 sg:hard vs. 0.796 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (1.103 sg:hard vs. 0.692 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (0.055 sg:hard vs. -0.311 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (1.971 sg:hard vs. 1.67 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (0.874 sg:hard vs. 0.594 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (1.555 sg:hard vs. 1.292 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (1.295 sg:hard vs. 1.069 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (1.011 sg:hard vs. 0.794 sg:total)
Talk about an elite list! Especially Darren Clarke. Just kidding with the Clarke callout, but the list is legit once we ignore Clarke.
The biggest departures at this stage are Marc Leishman, Kevin Kisner, Hideki Matsuyama, Sergio Garcia, Zach Johnson, and Brandt Snedeker.
ZJ gets a reputation for playing well when conditions get tough, but there’s really no consistency to back that up in the numbers. Over his last 15 starts on tough tracks, he’s lost strokes to the field in seven of those.
It’s a similar story for Leishman, who we also saw on the top-10 list for par 72 specialists. He also fits the bill all of the other angles. Unfortunately, he loses his specialist status based on performance on tough courses.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 20
Long Courses
We’ve already narrowed out search down to 20 golfers, but there are more angles to look at. Augusta National stretches out past 7,400 yards so it’s key to look at performance on similar-length layouts.
We are looking for golfers that can either bomb it out there off the tee, or golfers that are great with their long irons. That’s usually who climbs to the top of these long course lists.
The Top 10 Long Course Specialists that remain are:
Daniel Berger (1.171 sg:long vs. 0.594 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.131 sg:long vs. 0.643 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (1.542 sg:long vs. 1.11 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (2.54 sg:long vs. 2.128 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (1.475 sg:long vs. 1.069 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (1.019 sg:long vs. 0.64 sg:total)
Kevin Na (1.415 sg:long vs. 1.063 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (1.493 sg:long vs. 1.182 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (2.009 sg:long vs. 1.732 sg:total)
Justin Rose (1.853 sg:long vs. 1.614 sg:total)
At this stage we say see-ya to Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, and Ryan Moore.
None of them draw huge red flags requiring a fade label, but they aren’t the specialists we desire this week.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 13
Bentgrass Greens
Lastly we take a look at the green surfaces. This week’s greens are known to be of the bentgrass variety, and incredibly slick.
Everyone remaining in our search has a baseline SG:Total over 0.500, but some of them excel on bermuda or poa, but not so much on bent. We want to remove those golfers from our search this week.
The seven golfers who perform worse on bentgrass greens are: Charey Hoffman, Matt Kuchar, J.B. Holmes, Kevin Na, Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, and Jimmy Walker.
We know Lefty can navigate these greens, so don’t get too alarmed there. For Koepka, he’s lost strokes to the field in eight of his last 17 starts on bentgrass. Not ideal, but he’s also gained over eight strokes in five of those 17 starts. Very boom or bust on bentgrass early in his career.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 12
The Specialists
Jordan Spieth
Daniel Berger
Rory McIlroy
Ian Poulter
Justin Rose
Patrick Reed
Well, look at that, Jordan Spieth tops the list for the second week in a row.
It sort of makes sense that Spieth and Reed both make the list again, considering the Golf Club of Houston tries to emulate this week’s conditions as much as possible. With high winds in the forecast, I like that deadly duo even more.
Berger is a very interesting case. He’s been fearless early in his career, but it’s really hard to walk into Augusta National and contend your first time around. I like him, but I’d use some caution this week. His salary definitely makes it easier to swallow, at just $6,200.
Poulter has been way out of form. He looked good in Puerto Rico but that was such a weak field. I suppose this is a great spot for him to rebound, though.
Rory making the list is very notable. Just like Spieth, they both have incredibly high baseline strokes gained. On the other hand, he’s noted as a poor wind player, and that could play a factor if the forecast holds true.
I would consider Spieth, Reed, and Rose as rock-solid specialist options this week.
Check out the full Specialist Table for more detailed data. You can sort and filter to your heart’s desire. I’ve added a few extra angles this week, as well. Best of luck in all your matchups this week.