Searching for a Specialist: The Masters

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Welcome back for a MAJOR week of specialist searching where we narrow down the field in order to find a good course fit.

Last week we saw a lot of carnage at the Shell Houston Open. You could blame the tournament officials for not playing lift, clean, and place (mud ball central) or you could blame the weekend weather forecast (perhaps some golfers already in the Masters field decided it was okay if they got to Augusta National a bit early).

As for our specialists specifically, we saw 3-of-7 specialists miss the cut while we got top 35s from the other four including a solo fifth from Daniel Berger.

This week we are looking to dive really deep as it’s the first major of the year and we have plenty of correlated angles to look at, including Long Courses, Par 72 Courses, Hard Courses, Fast Greens, Bentgrass Greens, and Windy Rounds.

Those will be the six angles we look at this week as we try to narrow down the field to find a specialist.

Here we go …

Long Courses

Last week we saw the tournament officials move up the tee boxes after the weather softened the course quite a bit. I don’t think the Green Coats will be so kind. They want this to be a very tough test of golf, so being able to handle a lengthy layout should be key.

The Top 10 Long Course Specialists are:

Danny Willett (2.073 sg:long vs. 1.4 sg:total)
Brandt Snedeker (2.169 sg:long vs. 1.607 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.855 sg:long vs. 1.295 sg:total)
Ernie Els (1.041 sg:long vs. 0.497 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (2.119 sg:long vs. 1.597 sg:total)
Bernd Wiesberger (1.569 sg:long vs. 1.109 sg:total)
Trevor Immelman (-0.214 sg:long vs. -0.644 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (0.932 sg:long vs. 0.57 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (1.806 sg:long vs. 1.468 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (1.882 sg:long vs. 1.556 sg:total)

A good mix of bombers with steady strikers off the tee.

If you’re not the longest off the tee like Snedeker, you better be able to bring it strong with your long irons.

On the flip side, we have Jason Dufner. We highlighted his poor splits on long courses last week, but he was definitely one to benefit by the tee boxes being moved up at the Golf Club of Houston. I don’t think he’ll be so luck this week at ANGC.

Par 72 Courses

When par 72s roll around, we want golfers that can take advantage of par 5s, since there will be four on the docket.

It’s not always the bombers that get the biggest edge on par 72s, so let’s see who pops.

The 10 Par 72 Specialists:

Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.779 sg:par72 vs. 1.3 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (2.011 sg:par72 vs. 1.541 sg:total)
Danny Willett (1.837 sg:par72 vs. 1.4 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (2.095 sg:par72 vs. 1.724 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (0.907 sg:par72 vs. 0.57 sg:total)
Bernd Wiesberger (1.431 sg:par72 vs. 1.109 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (0.581 sg:par72 vs. 0.282 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.546 sg:par72 vs. 1.295 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (1.672 sg:par72 vs. 1.468 sg:total)
Bill Haas (1.906 sg:par72 vs. 1.705 sg:total)

As you can probably tell, there are quite a few “plodders” on this list such at Fitzpatrick, Molinari, Wiesberger, and Haas. These are the golfers that are going to be laying up on the par 5s, but they still manage their way around a par 72 course brilliantly.

Henrik Stenson checks in at the very bottom of the list here. He loves a course where he can grind out tough par 4s, so it makes sense that he would dip lower than his baseline when we head to par 72 layouts.

Hard Courses

When courses play at 0.75 strokes over par or tougher, some golfers rise to the occasion.

Whether it’s a talent thing or maybe just a mental aspect, these golfers love a tough test.

The Top 10 Hard Course Specialists:

Daniel Summerhays (1.945 sg:hard vs. 1.069 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (1.053 sg:hard vs. 0.282 sg:total)
William McGirt (1.749 sg:hard vs. 1.08 sg:total)
Danny Willett (2.043 sg:hard vs. 1.4 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.291 sg:hard vs. 2.655 sg:total)
Steve Stricker (2.141 sg:hard vs. 1.536 sg:total)
Lee Westwood (1.997 sg:hard vs. 1.434 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (1.661 sg:hard vs. 1.113 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (3.082 sg:hard vs. 2.578 sg:total)
Shane Lowry (2.039 sg:hard vs. 1.618 sg:total)

This lists is highly populated with golfers we’ve seen near the top of major championship leaderboards over the past few years.

Who leads the pack in terms of top 25s on difficult tracks since 2014? That would be Jordan Spieth with 20 and Dustin Johnson with 19. The next closest is Jason Day and Matt Kuchar with 15 a piece.

It’s really hard to earn your way into the field without playing well on a tough track a time or two but golfers like Roberto Castro, Adam Hadwin, Webb Simpson, James Hahn, Byeong Hun An, and Jhonattan Vegas all have top 25 ratios of less than 20% on hard courses since 2014. Not very promising.

Fast Greens

The greens at all PGA TOUR events are fast but some are much faster than others.

The difference between 10.5 feet on the stimpmeter and 12 feet on the stimp is huge. Then after that you have the crazy fast greens which is the target set we are looking at here.

Augusta National is known for it’s incredibly speedy greens of 13+ feet on the stimpmeter.

The 10 Fast Green Specialists:

Roberto Castro (1.232 sg:fast greens vs. 0.57 sg:total)
Shane Lowry (2.266 sg:fast greens vs. 1.618 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (0.836 sg:fast greens vs. 0.282 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.133 sg:fast greens vs. 2.655 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (1.141 sg:fast greens vs. 0.665 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (2.009 sg:fast greens vs. 1.556 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.73 sg:fast greens vs. 1.295 sg:total)
Soren Kjeldsen (1.525 sg:fast greens vs. 1.125 sg:total)
Vijay Singh (0.93 sg:fast greens vs. 0.54 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (1.498 sg:fast greens vs. 1.113 sg:total)

You will see all sorts of “play styles” thrive on fast greens. Much like performance in the wind, it often has to do with what type of courses a golfer grew up playing.

The two names at the bottom of the list here are Martin Kaymer and Jason Dufner. We already highlighted Dufner for his poor record at par 72s so this second strike should really eliminate him from consideration, or at least it does for me.

For Kaymer, he really struggles with his short game, so perhaps the fast greens only compound that as he already struggles to chip it close. You may find him chipping off greens this week or struggling to get it within six feet when chipping.

Bentgrass Greens

When bentgrass greens come around, we often see elite ball-strikers rise to the top, unless a golfer is named Lucas Glover and grew up playing bermuda greens.

The 10 Bentgrass Specialists:

Ernie Els (1.139 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.497 sg:total)
Rod Pampling (0.628 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.14 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (2.04 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.556 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (1.145 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.665 sg:total)
Soren Kjeldsen (1.551 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.125 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.667 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.3 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (0.627 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.282 sg:total)
Russell Henley (1.51 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.185 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.41 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.101 sg:total)
Vijay Singh (0.802 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.54 sg:total)

Like so many angles we are looking at, it’s all about comfort. Did a golfer grow up playing on bentgrass greens? Did he play most of his college events on bentgrass? Does he just suck at putting? These are all things that can influence performance on one surface versus another.

Who has the highest percentage of top 25s on bentgrass courses since 2014? That would be Rory McIlroy who has found a top 25 in 20 of his 24 starts on bentgrass greens. Jon Rahm has a much smaller sample but he’s trying to play catch up, already owning six top 25s on bentgrass greens in 8 starts.

Windy Rounds

This was a late addition this week, but it’s becoming clear that wind will be a factor before the cut with Thursday and Friday forecasted with gusts exceeding 25 mph.

The 10 Wind Specialists:

Jason Day (3.485 sg:wind vs. 2.779 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (2.063 sg:wind vs. 1.468 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (2.137 sg:wind vs. 1.567 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (1.192 sg:wind vs. 0.665 sg:total)
Danny Willett (1.89 sg:wind vs. 1.4 sg:total)
Vijay Singh (0.934 sg:wind vs. 0.54 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.454 sg:wind vs. 1.064 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.594 sg:wind vs. 1.204 sg:total)
Lee Westwood (1.741 sg:wind vs. 1.434 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (2.248 sg:wind vs. 1.948 sg:total)

With FanDuel now in the mix, this is an area where you could try to target wind specialists before the cut and then look at some poor wind performers for after the cut, since the forecast looks much calmer over the weekend.

Baseline Performance

The goal of this search is to find some golfers with a good course fit. At the same time, we don’t want to rely on golfers that need the week of their lives just to crack the top 25.

We don’t need to completely eliminate these guys, but definitely isolate them to GPP consideration only since their baseline strokes gained is lower than the field average this week.

GPP-Only Options:

Angel Cabrera

El Pato looks to be a great fit this week, but his baseline is hard to trust in anything other than a few GPP stabs.

The Specialists

Daniel Berger
J.B. Holmes

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Our specialist this week is Daniel Berger!

Both of these golfers cracked the specialist list last week which makes sense because the Golf Club of Houston prides itself on setting the event up similar to Augusta National.

Berger doesn’t fit the “need to hit a draw” narrative but everything else says he’s a great fit for the course. Making his debut here last year, Berger pieced together a T10 finish.

J.B. Holmes upset a lot of gamers last week when he missed the cut at the Mud Ball Open, but he looks to set up nicely again this week. In three trips to Augusta National, he owns finishes of T4 – MC – T25.

The Anti-Specialists

Looking for the opposite of our specialists, these golfers have negative numbers in all six angles!

Jason Dufner
Brian Stuard
Kevin Kisner

Kevin Kisner is the interesting name here since he owns the local knowledge. His house was undergoing renovations last year so he wasn’t able to sleep in his own bed but he will be able to this year.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),

Form looks at the performance over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro).

Golfer DK FD FDFT SG:Total Form Long Bentgrass Windy Par 72 Hard Courses Fast Greens Specialist Rating
Danny Willett $7,800 $7,400 $15,500 1.4 0.754 0.673 0.124 0.49 0.437 0.643 0 0.395
Angel Cabrera $6,700 $5,100 $13,300 0.282 0.83 0.094 0.345 0 0.299 0.771 0.554 0.344
Daniel Berger $7,300 $6,400 $15,000 1.567 2.146 0.323 0.262 0.569 0.109 0.393 0.114 0.295
J.B. Holmes $7,100 $7,200 $14,900 1.468 1.894 0.338 0.115 0.595 0.204 0.239 0.195 0.281
Vijay Singh $6,300 $4,600 $12,700 0.54 -1.332 0.255 0.263 0.394 -0.043 0.39 0.39 0.275
Scott Piercy $6,800 $5,900 $13,600 1.113 0.516 0.25 0.027 0.26 -0.042 0.548 0.385 0.238
Charley Hoffman $7,100 $6,700 $13,900 1.295 1.925 0.559 -0.088 -0.078 0.251 0.302 0.435 0.23
Billy Hurley III $6,400 $4,600 $12,800 0.665 0.377 0.062 0.48 0.527 -0.383 0.098 0.476 0.21
Emiliano Grillo $7,300 $6,000 $14,600 1.556 1.492 0.326 0.484 -0.182 0.121 0.032 0.454 0.206
Soren Kjeldsen $6,500 $5,600 $13,400 1.125 1.042 0.233 0.426 0 -0.262 0.415 0.4 0.202
Jordan Spieth $11,500 $10,600 $22,000 2.578 2.959 0.289 0.042 0.292 0.113 0.504 -0.125 0.186
Dustin Johnson $11,300 $11,000 $21,900 2.655 3.952 -0.084 -0.02 0.075 0.005 0.635 0.477 0.182
Ernie Els $6,700 $4,600 $13,100 0.497 0.21 0.545 0.642 -0.071 -0.132 -0.092 0.159 0.175
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,400 $6,700 $15,400 1.3 2.033 0.234 0.367 0 0.479 -0.066 0 0.169
Roberto Castro $6,800 $4,600 $13,100 0.57 0.735 0.362 -0.147 0.078 0.338 -0.46 0.662 0.139
Trevor Immelman $6,100 $4,500 $12,200 -0.644 -0.679 0.43 -0.207 0.224 0.134 -0.118 0.287 0.125
Mike Weir $6,000 $4,500 $12,000 -1.874 -0.87 0.234 0.174 0.006 -0.076 0.386 0 0.121
Charl Schwartzel $7,900 $7,400 $15,700 1.66 1.167 0.221 0.008 0.198 -0.084 0.412 -0.033 0.12
Matt Kuchar $7,400 $8,700 $15,600 2.043 1.674 -0.006 0.051 0.135 0.113 0.263 0.096 0.109
Paul Casey $7,800 $8,300 $16,600 1.92 2.121 0.21 0.108 -0.04 -0.034 -0.021 0.384 0.101
Phil Mickelson $8,700 $9,100 $18,000 1.948 1.916 0.239 -0.024 0.3 0.171 0.365 -0.447 0.1
Hudson Swafford $7,000 $5,000 $13,600 0.816 1.502 0.044 0.186 -0.027 0.139 0.115 0.139 0.099
Lee Westwood $7,200 $7,100 $15,100 1.434 0.97 -0.048 -0.028 0.307 -0.07 0.564 -0.144 0.097
Kevin Chappell $6,800 $5,200 $13,700 1.204 0.154 0.023 0.14 0.39 -0.175 -0.214 0.34 0.084
Patrick Reed $8,200 $7,900 $16,400 1.611 0.665 0.181 0.139 0.231 -0.028 0.017 -0.062 0.08
Rory McIlroy $10,600 $10,400 $21,600 3.095 3.844 0.089 0.142 0.155 0.142 -0.101 0.043 0.078
Bernd Wiesberger $7,100 $6,200 $14,200 1.109 1.867 0.46 0.143 -0.323 0.322 -0.274 0.137 0.077
Bill Haas $7,200 $7,100 $14,400 1.705 1.961 -0.18 0.007 0.268 0.201 -0.017 0.158 0.073
Kevin Na $7,100 $5,900 $13,800 1.674 1.582 0.239 -0.239 -0.158 0.094 0.316 0.162 0.069
Shane Lowry $7,300 $6,800 $14,800 1.618 1.91 -0.157 -0.461 0.207 -0.247 0.422 0.648 0.069
Jimmy Walker $7,600 $7,900 $15,200 1.597 1.521 0.522 -0.11 0.233 0.073 0.193 -0.556 0.059
Jason Day $10,200 $10,000 $20,800 2.779 1.673 -0.044 0.083 0.706 -0.194 -0.026 -0.208 0.053
Bubba Watson $8,400 $8,300 $17,000 2.111 0.744 0.003 -0.02 -0.021 -0.052 0.377 0.01 0.05
Steve Stricker $7,100 $6,100 $13,500 1.536 1.417 -0.25 0.077 0.119 -0.248 0.605 -0.046 0.043
Brooks Koepka $7,500 $6,800 $15,600 1.772 0.025 0.291 0.013 -0.269 -0.087 0.383 -0.086 0.041
Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,200 $7,600 $14,800 1.465 1.769 -0.059 -0.109 -0.188 0.161 0.417 0 0.037
Louis Oosthuizen $8,100 $8,500 $15,900 1.59 2.042 0.181 -0.095 -0.303 0.109 0.384 -0.087 0.031
Rod Pampling $6,300 $4,600 $12,700 0.14 -0.734 0.307 0.488 -0.307 -0.315 0 0 0.029
Daniel Summerhays $6,600 $4,700 $13,100 1.069 0.673 0.089 -0.195 -0.071 -0.2 0.876 -0.359 0.023
Justin Rose $9,200 $9,500 $18,300 2.402 2.422 0.124 0.098 -0.309 0.148 -0.138 0.166 0.015
Brandt Snedeker $8,000 $7,800 $16,200 1.607 2.737 0.562 0.111 0.008 0.065 -0.151 -0.526 0.012
Zach Johnson $7,400 $7,700 $15,100 1.66 1.215 -0.024 0.104 -0.448 0.086 -0.02 0.312 0.002
Thomas Pieters $7,700 $6,600 $15,800 1.516 2.08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hideto Tanihara $6,500 $5,400 $13,400 0.782 1.458 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alex Noren $7,500 $6,700 $15,000 0.779 0.932 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jeunghun Wang $6,900 $4,800 $13,300 -0.456 0.848 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ross Fisher $6,900 $6,300 NA 1.813 0.902 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mackenzie Hughes $6,600 $4,700 $13,000 0.837 0.672 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Curtis Luck $6,900 $4,500 $13,200 -4.538 0.373 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bernhard Langer $6,400 $4,900 $12,900 1.114 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fred Couples $6,300 $4,900 $12,800 -0.168 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ian Woosnam $6,200 $4,500 $12,400 -2.224 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brad Dalke $6,200 $4,500 $12,500 -6.299 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scott Gregory $6,200 $4,500 $12,400 -1.789 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mark O’Meara $6,100 $4,500 $12,200 0.083 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandy Lyle $6,000 $4,500 $12,000 -2.967 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Larry Mize $6,000 $4,500 $12,000 -0.765 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Toto Gana $6,000 $4,500 $12,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Yuta Ikeda $6,600 $4,700 $13,000 -0.171 -0.292 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jose Maria Olazabal $6,100 $4,500 NA 0.384 -2.76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pat Perez $7,000 $5,500 $13,900 1.064 2.218 0.17 -0.556 0.39 0.152 -0.086 -0.091 -0.003
Jon Rahm $8,600 $9,300 $17,800 2.307 3.432 0 -0.055 0 0 0 0 -0.009
Gary Woodland $7,700 $6,900 $15,200 1.552 1.908 0.182 -0.147 0.191 0.072 -0.148 -0.214 -0.011
Adam Scott $8,800 $9,700 $18,500 2.362 1.896 0.054 -0.089 -0.341 -0.011 0.223 0.083 -0.013
Marc Leishman $7,100 $6,500 $15,300 1.541 2.515 0.024 0.025 -0.183 0.471 -0.559 0.141 -0.014
Ryan Moore $7,000 $6,600 $14,200 1.562 1.396 -0.279 -0.108 0.135 -0.192 0.42 -0.102 -0.021
William McGirt $6,900 $5,300 $13,300 1.08 1.283 -0.156 0.1 -0.303 -0.449 0.67 0.004 -0.022
Russell Henley $7,200 NA $15,700 1.185 2.788 0.286 0.325 -0.14 -0.046 -0.372 -0.188 -0.022
Rickie Fowler $9,300 $9,200 $18,100 2.101 3.341 -0.014 0.309 -0.16 -0.268 0.157 -0.202 -0.029
Si Woo Kim $6,700 $4,700 $13,200 0.693 -2.083 -0.448 0.24 0.044 0.129 -0.25 -0.02 -0.051
Adam Hadwin $6,900 $6,300 $14,500 1.189 2.611 -0.302 0.027 -0.08 0.113 -0.281 0.204 -0.053
Andy Sullivan $7,000 $5,600 $14,100 1.293 1.509 0 -0.059 0 -0.313 0.338 -0.305 -0.057
Branden Grace $7,500 $6,400 $15,300 1.352 0.643 -0.277 -0.094 -0.108 -0.261 0.368 0.001 -0.062
Tommy Fleetwood $6,900 $6,800 $14,700 1.054 2.01 0 0 0 -0.401 0 0 -0.067
Tyrrell Hatton $7,600 $7,600 $15,600 2.212 3.658 0 -0.422 0 0 0 0 -0.07
Sergio Garcia $8,300 $8,100 $16,700 2.397 2.996 -0.492 -0.01 0.081 0.063 0.314 -0.381 -0.071
Jhonattan Vegas $6,700 $5,300 $13,300 0.769 2.364 0.256 -0.002 0.165 0.102 -0.653 -0.32 -0.075
Francesco Molinari $6,800 $6,900 $14,200 1.724 2.296 -0.161 -0.02 -0.11 0.371 -0.487 -0.056 -0.077
Sean O’Hair $6,500 $5,400 $13,200 0.768 0.568 0.231 -0.139 0.097 -0.117 0.01 -0.559 -0.079
Webb Simpson $7,000 $6,000 $14,000 1.364 1.511 0.05 0.178 0.08 -0.228 -0.45 -0.111 -0.08
Chris Wood $6,500 $5,600 $13,500 1.239 1.743 0 -0.298 0 -0.202 0 0 -0.083
Russell Knox $7,000 $5,900 $14,300 1.487 -1.162 -0.539 0.138 0.109 -0.092 0.076 -0.204 -0.085
Brendan Steele $7,100 $6,100 $14,100 1.479 1.913 0.053 -0.512 -0.575 0.08 0.341 0.072 -0.09
Justin Thomas $8,900 $8,900 $18,400 1.706 1.694 -0.1 -0.283 -0.157 0.169 -0.267 0.076 -0.094
James Hahn $6,900 $4,700 $13,200 0.717 0.923 -0.434 -0.087 -0.372 0.018 0.201 0.004 -0.112
Martin Kaymer $7,200 $6,800 $14,500 1.43 1.998 -0.209 0.243 0.164 -0.116 -0.166 -0.612 -0.116
Hideki Matsuyama $9,900 $9,700 $20,300 2.185 1.843 -0.144 -0.043 -0.027 0.141 -0.741 0.114 -0.116
Jim Furyk $7,200 $7,700 $14,500 2.149 0.928 -0.323 0.169 -0.566 -0.081 -0.141 0.138 -0.134
Kevin Kisner $6,900 $6,800 $14,200 1.296 2.784 -0.088 -0.09 -0.253 -0.095 -0.325 -0.027 -0.146
Brian Stuard $6,400 $4,600 $12,800 0.585 1.057 -0.168 -0.062 -0.036 -0.153 -0.101 -0.409 -0.155
Henrik Stenson $9,500 $9,200 $18,900 2.536 2.208 -0.028 0.132 -0.329 -0.506 0.233 -0.49 -0.165
Byeong Hun An $7,000 $5,800 $14,600 1.074 1.401 -0.379 -0.395 -0.246 0.032 -0.437 -0.031 -0.243
Jason Dufner $7,100 $6,900 $14,300 1.413 2.556 -0.848 -0.239 -0.139 -0.068 -0.087 -0.596 -0.33

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.