Searching for a Specialist: The Masters

As a small field of 87 golfers stroll down Magnolia Lane, it’s time to evaluate the field and see who may fit the course at Augusta National.

Our specialists last week went 3-for-4 last week with a T8, T18 and T32.

For the Masters we will look at Performance on Bentgrass Greens, Performance on Easy-to-Hit Fairways, Performance on Par 72 Courses, Performance on Hard-to-Hit Greens, and Performance in Majors.

Here we go …

Performance on Bentgrass Greens

Augusta National features bentgrass greens.

They are some of the fastest greens these pros will see all year, but golfers that hate reading grainy greens will be happy to see quick bent this week.

The 10 Bentgrass Specialists:

Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.729 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.22 sg:total)
Ian Poulter (1.832 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.444 sg:total)
Thomas Pieters (1.733 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.383 sg:total)
Martin Kaymer (1.843 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.499 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.781 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.451 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (1.836 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.52 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.572 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.26 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (0.221 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.075 sg:total)
Bernd Wiesberger (1.469 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.211 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.438 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.199 sg:total)

It’s easy to see what the primary green surface is over in Europe. A quick glance at this list shows five golfers that primarily play overseas or grew up over in Europe.

For that reason, I’m willing to throw out the small-sample ratings of guys like Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton. The same goes for Tiger Woods. He is at the bottom of this list, but this data set looks at starts since 2014. Let’s give him a few more months before we start re-evaluating him at a meta level.

Easy-to-Hit Fairways

Augusta National has generous landing areas that allow golfers to rip drivers.

The mowing patterns also prevent some rollout which helps keep some drives from rolling through the fairways.

Easy fairways mean plenty of approach shots that are coming from prime fairway conditions…

The Top 10 Easy Fairway Specialists:

Ted Potter, Jr. (1.125 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.189 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (2.167 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.52 sg:total)
Russell Henley (1.908 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.467 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (3.343 sg:easy fairways vs. 2.91 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (2.256 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.824 sg:total)
Bernd Wiesberger (1.624 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.211 sg:total)
Pat Perez (2.104 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.704 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.84 sg:easy fairways vs. 2.457 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.953 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.607 sg:total)
Justin Rose (2.939 sg:easy fairways vs. 2.595 sg:total)

Five other events with high fairway rates include the John Deere Classic, RSM Classic, Tournament of Champions, Travelers Championship, and the Greenbrier.

A few recent U.S. Opens with easy-to-hit fairways include Erin Hills, Chambers Bay, and Pinehurst No. 2.

Any top-heavy results in those events might deserve a boost this week.

Par 72 Courses

This week’s course is a par 72 that features the standard number of par 5s (4).

Unlike last week, the par 5s offer lots of eagle opportunities here at Augusta National.

Let’s see who likes to play par 72 tracks…

The Top 10 Par 72 Specialists:

Danny Willett (1.307 sg:par72 vs. 0.523 sg:total)
Bernd Wiesberger (1.917 sg:par72 vs. 1.211 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.825 sg:par72 vs. 1.22 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (3.36 sg:par72 vs. 2.83 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.995 sg:par72 vs. 1.634 sg:total)
Pat Perez (2.039 sg:par72 vs. 1.704 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.592 sg:par72 vs. 1.26 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (2.268 sg:par72 vs. 1.948 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (2.025 sg:par72 vs. 1.71 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (0.222 sg:par72 vs. -0.075 sg:total)

We just saw Rory crush at Bay Hill. That is another par 72 that allows lots of eagle chances.

Danny Willett, Bernd, and Fitz are all slumping ahead of this week, so they don’t appeal to me, even with good par 72 splits.

Hard-to-Hit Greens

Despite a ton of approach shots coming from the fairways, greens are not easy to land here at Augusta National.

Part of that is due to tough green complexes and part of that is course strategy. You have to know when you can attack pins and when it’s smarter to bail out and depend on your short game to get up-and-down.

The Top 10 Hard GIR Specialists:

Mike Weir (-1.478 sg:hard GIR vs. -2.14 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (0.547 sg:hard GIR vs. -0.075 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (2.427 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.807 sg:total)
Danny Willett (0.983 sg:hard GIR vs. 0.523 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (2.081 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.634 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.922 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.522 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.587 sg:hard GIR vs. 2.199 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (1.684 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.38 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (1.949 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.647 sg:total)
Thomas Pieters (1.657 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.383 sg:total)

There are two ways to thrive in these conditions and the list above does a good job of illustrating that.

Guys like Bubba, Charley, Dufner, and Pieters are GIR machines so even in tough GIR conditions, they will hit one or two more greens per round, compared to the field average.

The second route is to lean on elite short game like we see Matt Kuchar and Adam Hadwin often do.

Performance in Majors

Getting your game ready for a major championship is a true art.

Some golfers know how to prepare mentally. They know whether or not they want to play the week before. They know how to read scoring conditions and adjust their play accordingly.

Let’s see who shines in the spotlight:

The Top 10 Major Specialists:

Martin Kaymer (2.076 sg:majors vs. 1.499 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.716 sg:majors vs. 2.199 sg:total)
Danny Willett (1.001 sg:majors vs. 0.523 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (3.388 sg:majors vs. 2.91 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.911 sg:majors vs. 2.457 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (2.269 sg:majors vs. 1.824 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (2.078 sg:majors vs. 1.647 sg:total)
Ian Poulter (1.87 sg:majors vs. 1.444 sg:total)
Branden Grace (2.101 sg:majors vs. 1.727 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (2.168 sg:majors vs. 1.852 sg:total)

Matt Kuchar and Patrick Reed are interesting names here since Kooch hasn’t won a major and Reed hadn’t found a top 10 in a major until last year. However, when you adjust for field strength they have actually performed better in these big events. Another reason we shouldn’t compare results via finishing position.

Bubba Watson might surprise some people down near the bottom of this list, since he’s a two-time champ here. Other than those two wins, he has just two other top 10s in major championships (40 starts). In fact, 28 of his 40 major starts have resulted in finishing outside the top 30. Ouch.

The Specialist

Marc Leishman

The specialist this week is Marc Leishman!

marc-leishman-550x330

The Aussie increases his performance across all five angles this week.

His best angles are par 72 courses, easy-to-hit fairways, and bentgrass greens.

Leish has six top 15s in majors, including a T4 here at Augusta National. He’s not getting a lot of love recently but it might be a good week to jump back on the Australian Express.

The two golfers that are negative in all five angles are Webb Simpson and Gary Woodland. They might be two to swerve this week.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Jordan Spieth
Rory Mcilroy
Justin Rose
Patrick Reed
Sergio Garcia
Paul Casey
Matt Kuchar
Kevin Chappell
Charley Hoffman
Marc Leishman
Rickie Fowler
Hideki Matsuyama
Xander Schauffele
Shubhankar Sharma
Alex Noren
Justin Thomas
Phil Mickelson
Pat Perez
Dustin Johnson
Louis Oosthuizen

Not a lot of surprises here with Spieth-Rory-Rose leading the charge. Xander and Sharma could be the two first-timers to keep an eye on.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made small adjustments for sample sizes but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Bent Hard GIR Par 72 Easy FW Majors Specialist Rating
Danny Willett $6,800 $7,700 $11,100 0.523 1.89 -3.024 -0.008 0.46 0.784 0 0.478 0.343
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,300 $8,500 $12,700 1.22 1.859 1.998 0.509 -0.004 0.605 0 0.173 0.256
Charley Hoffman $7,100 $9,000 $12,900 1.634 1.879 35.98 0.157 0.447 0.361 0.191 -0.004 0.231
Matt Kuchar $7,600 $9,500 $14,100 2.199 2.31 29.032 0.239 0.388 -0.008 -0.128 0.517 0.202
Rory Mcilroy $9,900 $11,700 $17,600 2.83 2.441 38.069 0.054 -0.166 0.53 0.34 0.227 0.197
Hideki Matsuyama $8,400 $10,700 $15,200 2.457 2.356 8.674 0.065 -0.067 0.056 0.383 0.454 0.178
Jordan Spieth $10,400 $11,000 $16,800 2.91 3.254 38.256 0.132 -0.016 -0.149 0.433 0.478 0.176
Marc Leishman $8,200 $10,000 $14,300 1.948 0.646 25.073 0.172 0.049 0.32 0.253 0.072 0.173
Justin Rose $9,200 $11,400 $16,900 2.595 2.946 37.26 0.115 -0.042 0.224 0.344 0.209 0.17
Patrick Reed $7,700 $10,000 $14,500 1.852 0.416 52.561 0.021 0.27 -0.096 0.325 0.317 0.167
Kevin Chappell $6,900 $9,400 $12,300 1.607 2.044 50.256 -0.022 0.012 0.139 0.346 0.276 0.15
Ian Poulter $7,600 $9,200 $14,100 1.444 1.465 8.526 0.388 -0.058 0.191 -0.2 0.426 0.15
Angel Cabrera $6,400 $10,200 $ – -0.075 1.459 -14.713 0.296 0.621 0.297 -0.54 0 0.135
Russell Henley $7,100 $8,900 $12,000 1.467 1.714 16.839 0.236 -0.41 0.213 0.44 0.175 0.131
Pat Perez $6,900 $9,200 $12,100 1.704 1.218 24.915 -0.079 -0.053 0.335 0.4 0 0.121
Charl Schwartzel $7,400 $9,000 $12,800 1.647 1.852 1.285 0.143 0.302 -0.145 -0.16 0.431 0.114
Xander Schauffele $7,500 $9,300 $13,400 1.52 0 38.699 0.316 0.242 -0.639 0.647 0 0.113
Louis Oosthuizen $7,900 $9,900 $14,200 1.824 1.4 18.205 -0.441 0.054 0.036 0.433 0.445 0.106
Sergio Garcia $8,600 $11,300 $15,600 2.504 2.123 38.541 -0.09 0.117 0.05 0.261 0.179 0.103
Kyle Stanley $6,800 $8,300 $11,500 1.26 -0.172 17.48 0.312 -0.037 0.331 -0.169 0 0.087
Jimmy Walker $6,800 $9,100 $11,900 1.426 1.694 23.837 -0.019 0.221 -0.168 0.327 0.064 0.085
Bernd Wiesberger $6,800 $8,400 $11,200 1.211 1.067 -8.175 0.258 -0.739 0.706 0.413 -0.263 0.075
Zach Johnson $7,000 $9,800 $12,500 1.813 0.745 20.861 0.117 0.132 -0.111 -0.051 0.277 0.073
Martin Kaymer $6,900 $8,700 $11,700 1.499 0.894 2.022 0.344 -0.174 -0.281 -0.123 0.577 0.069
Tony Finau $7,400 $9,900 $13,100 1.789 0 23.943 0.036 0.083 0.166 0.053 0 0.068
Ross Fisher $7,000 $8,800 $11,700 1.341 0.699 -1.666 0.133 0 0.139 0 0 0.055
Brian Harman $7,500 $10,100 $13,500 1.501 -0.039 27.266 0.159 -0.116 0.067 0.157 0 0.053
Rickie Fowler $9,000 $10,800 $15,800 2.451 1.714 29.185 0.329 0.158 -0.186 -0.162 0.125 0.053
Bryson DeChambeau $6,900 $9,200 $13,300 1.261 1.289 46.966 0.034 -0.071 -0.105 0.339 0 0.039
Paul Casey $8,800 $10,900 $15,700 2.45 2.374 49.934 0.174 0.01 -0.111 0.1 0.011 0.037
Thomas Pieters $8,300 $9,400 $13,800 1.383 2.544 14.627 0.35 0.274 -0.452 0 0 0.034
Francesco Molinari $7,000 $9,300 $11,900 1.862 0.76 24.573 -0.116 -0.256 0.259 0.041 0.182 0.022
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $7,100 $8,400 $12,600 0.814 1.562 18.108 -0.161 0 0.193 0 0 0.006
Shubhankar Sharma $7,100 $8,000 $12,200 1.956 0 35.718 0 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Cook $6,700 $8,500 $10,800 1.612 0 21.823 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dylan Frittelli $6,700 $7,900 $11,700 0.656 0 18.944 0 0 0 0 0 0
Joaquin Niemann $6,500 $7,300 $10,200 0.928 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fred Couples $6,700 $7,900 $10,500 0.848 1.563 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bernhard Langer $6,300 $7,600 $10,300 0.642 0.569 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Yuta Ikeda $6,600 $7,400 $10,300 0.071 0.276 3.083 0 0 0 0 0 0
Matt Parziale $6,100 $7,000 $10,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Doug Ghim $6,400 $7,000 $10,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jose Maria Olazabal $6,000 $7,100 $10,000 -0.289 -0.307 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mark O’Meara $6,000 $7,000 $10,000 -0.575 -0.777 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Larry Mize $6,000 $7,100 $10,000 -0.866 -0.708 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Harry Ellis $6,300 $7,100 $10,000 -2.325 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ian Woosnam $6,000 $7,000 $10,000 -2.38 -2.121 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandy Lyle $6,100 $7,000 $10,000 -3.417 -1.674 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Doc Redman $6,500 $7,400 $10,100 -0.183 0 -1.756 0 0 0 0 0 0
Yuxin Lin $6,200 $7,000 $10,000 0 0 -7.019 0 0 0 0 0 0
Yusaku Miyazato $6,700 $7,300 $10,200 -0.896 0 -3.081 0 0 0 0 0 0
Satoshi Kodaira $6,500 $7,800 $10,200 -0.373 0 -10.34 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mike Weir $6,000 $7,000 $10,000 -2.14 -1.26 -3.827 -0.252 0.663 -0.299 -0.126 0 -0.003
Alex Noren $8,100 $10,500 $14,700 1.857 -0.006 62.468 -0.142 0.076 0.039 0 0 -0.005
Hao Tong Li $7,200 $8,300 $11,600 -0.042 0 -9.173 0 0 -0.134 0 0 -0.027
Patrick Cantlay $7,600 $9,300 $13,300 2.196 0.155 29.415 -0.155 0 0 0 0 -0.031
Jhonattan Vegas $6,600 $7,500 $10,700 0.953 -0.479 4.757 -0.156 -0.368 0.228 0.132 0 -0.033
Branden Grace $7,400 $10,200 $13,000 1.727 0.858 35.934 0.158 -0.013 -0.09 -0.618 0.374 -0.038
Jason Dufner $6,800 $9,300 $11,800 1.522 0.713 5.359 -0.097 0.401 -0.12 -0.335 -0.049 -0.04
Adam Scott $8,000 $10,400 $13,900 2.259 1.971 31.751 -0.286 0.199 -0.003 -0.061 -0.083 -0.047
Adam Hadwin $7,200 $9,700 $12,200 1.38 0.852 46.219 -0.341 0.304 -0.094 -0.111 0 -0.048
Jason Day $9,800 $11,200 $16,300 2.799 2.221 27.557 -0.036 -0.004 -0.212 -0.09 0.064 -0.056
Chez Reavie $6,600 $8,600 $10,900 1.517 -0.651 35.35 -0.012 -0.135 -0.021 -0.122 0 -0.058
Kevin Kisner $7,200 $9,200 $12,600 1.513 0.803 -1.636 -0.123 0.103 -0.215 -0.012 -0.086 -0.066
Billy Horschel $6,600 $7,500 $11,000 1.197 1.149 7.118 -0.309 0.146 0.076 0.146 -0.401 -0.069
Justin Thomas $10,800 $11,800 $17,500 2.257 1.356 69.224 -0.329 -0.037 0.036 -0.197 0.165 -0.072
Phil Mickelson $9,500 $11,200 $16,000 2.244 2.188 71.512 -0.177 0.105 -0.047 -0.261 0.002 -0.076
Ryan Moore $7,000 $9,100 $12,400 1.627 1.56 34.716 -0.43 -0.026 -0.151 0.155 0.05 -0.08
Henrik Stenson $7,800 $10,700 $14,800 2.764 0.917 16.504 -0.014 0.027 -0.375 -0.314 0.206 -0.094
Dustin Johnson $11,400 $12,000 $17,400 2.974 1.913 43.915 -0.275 -0.049 -0.253 0.291 -0.203 -0.098
Trevor Immelman $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 -0.836 0.167 -2.687 -0.195 -0.153 0.159 -0.319 0 -0.102
Vijay Singh $6,600 $7,200 $10,300 0.469 -0.007 -11.374 0.209 -0.173 0.103 -0.677 0 -0.107
Daniel Berger $7,500 $9,600 $13,000 1.803 1.961 28.354 0.145 0.196 -0.103 -0.251 -0.562 -0.115
Si Woo Kim $6,700 $8,100 $11,300 0.635 -0.895 -0.984 -0.022 -0.637 0.188 -0.164 0 -0.127
Cameron Smith $6,900 $8,700 $12,500 1.131 -0.075 22.386 -0.393 -0.468 0.033 0.162 0 -0.133
Bubba Watson $8,700 $10,300 $16,600 1.807 1.193 50.256 -0.149 0.62 -0.265 -0.625 -0.549 -0.194
Ted Potter, Jr. $6,600 $7,300 $10,400 0.189 -0.065 8.396 -0.538 -0.302 -1.072 0.936 0 -0.195
Jon Rahm $9,300 $11,300 $15,900 2.6 1.314 32.407 -0.183 -0.383 -0.234 -0.175 0 -0.195
Brendan Steele $6,900 $8,900 $11,800 1.71 0.968 32.699 -0.543 -0.335 0.315 -0.185 -0.267 -0.203
Tyrrell Hatton $7,700 $9,700 $14,000 1.905 -1.339 19.587 -0.48 0 -0.619 0 0 -0.22
Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,300 $7,400 $13,200 1.812 1.042 46.94 -0.1 -0.205 0.036 -0.727 -0.115 -0.222
Wesley Bryan $6,700 $7,400 $10,600 0.678 0 -6.914 -0.318 0.058 -0.79 -0.107 0 -0.231
Tiger Woods $10,000 $11,500 $16,500 1.364 2.245 44.524 -1.083 0 -0.164 0 0 -0.249
Webb Simpson $7,300 $9,600 $11,900 1.801 0.848 31.545 -0.069 -0.346 -0.513 -0.272 -0.241 -0.288
Tommy Fleetwood $8,500 $10,600 $15,000 2.049 -0.006 47.371 -0.597 -0.399 -0.501 0 0 -0.299
Patton Kizzire $7,000 $8,600 $11,800 0.879 0 15.605 -0.428 -0.912 -0.023 -0.24 0 -0.321
Gary Woodland $7,200 $9,500 $12,400 1.659 -0.062 26.814 -0.214 -0.401 -0.091 -0.386 -0.55 -0.328

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.