Searching for a Specialist: The Memorial
Welcome back to another specialist search.
Doing a quick recap of last week, Kevin Chappell pulled a Leishman and missed from inside four feet to fall outside the cut line. Another heart breaker. While he was the top specialist of the week, we still managed to collect top 25s from four of the seven specialists, so all was not lost.
In this edition we will look at Bentgrass Greens, Par 72 Tracks, and Fast Greens.
Here we go…
Bentgrass Greens
You may have noticed last week that bentgrass greens wasn’t one of our angles, despite Colonial using that particular grass type. I try to take it one week at a time and not blindly use angles that don’t show high correlation to success.
That was the case last week, but this week at Muirfield Village, bentgrass-positive golfers show a very nice correlation to success here. This week’s greens are known to be some of the quickest on TOUR and also some of the truest. That means golfers who prefer putting on bent can really shine.
The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists are:
Bud Cauley (0.756 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.144 sg:total)
Johnson Wagner (0.513 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.021 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (0.545 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.015 sg:total)
Ernie Els (0.454 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.047 sg:total)
Scott Pinckney (0.308 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.134 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (1.621 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.212 sg:total)
Tony Finau (1.118 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.719 sg:total)
Russell Henley (0.56 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.173 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (0.584 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.264 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (0.589 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.284 sg:total)
Cauley has made very few starts this season as he plays on a Major Medical Extension. He’s posted top 25s in all three cuts made, though, so when he pops, he really pops.
Thorbjorn didn’t make it as a full-time PGA player back when he tried (2013-14), but he’s regaining his form as of late (top 20s in four of last five internationally). Returning to these quick bentgrass greens, Olesen could find another top 20. He finished T8 here back in 2014.
On the flip side we have Jason Kokrak, Lucas Glover, and Fabian Gomez who are all basically a shot worse per round when they play on bentgrass greens. Despite Glover’s great tee-to-green play, it’s not worth the risk. Kokrak went to Xavier and considers this somewhat of a home game, but his track record on bent speaks for itself. If you need further proof, he is 0-for-2 here with three of his four rounds going for 76 or worse.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 43
Par 72 Courses
Muirfield Village is a par 72 which means four par 5s. That means easy “bounceback” holes are always just around the corner.
Each of the par 5s have surrendered six or more eagles over the past two editions, so getting golfers that can score on these layouts is crucial this week.
The Top 10 Par 72 Specialists:
Marc Leishman (1.126 sg:par72 vs. 0.77 sg:total)
Bud Cauley (0.494 sg:par72 vs. 0.144 sg:total)
Scott Pinckney (0.194 sg:par72 vs. -0.134 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (0.555 sg:par72 vs. 0.234 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (-0.05 sg:par72 vs. -0.334 sg:total)
Hiroshi Iwata (0.045 sg:par72 vs. -0.221 sg:total)
Johnson Wagner (0.24 sg:par72 vs. -0.021 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (2.037 sg:par72 vs. 1.778 sg:total)
Tony Finau (0.946 sg:par72 vs. 0.719 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (2.343 sg:par72 vs. 2.148 sg:total)
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Look at that, Bud Cauley shows up pretty high again.
Reifers is very interesting because he arrives with back-to-back top 10s and also knows this venue very well. He grew up caddying at Muirfield Village, so this is very much a home game for him.
The bottom of this list is juicy since Rory, Spieth, and Finau are some of the best DraftKings scorers in the biz.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 23
Fast Greens
This is the first time this angle has been used here. I don’t have it published on my website, either. I’ve been tracking it in the background and this is the perfect week to bust it out.
This week’s course has some of the quickest greens on TOUR. They run at 13 or higher annually on the stimp meter. For those unfamiliar, this is a device that drops a ball on a flat part of the green at a 20 degree angle, and the stimp number is how many feet the ball rolls. For those of you that play on public courses, you’re probably familiar with 9 or 9.5 so imagine how tricky those downhill breaking putts would be if the greens are nearly twice as fast.
You may think this caters to great putters, and it sometimes does. But great ball-strikers are at an advantage if they can stiff their approach shots to the correct side of the pin, allowing them more uphill, straightforward putts.
The Top 5 Fast Green Specialists remaining are:
Hunter Mahan (0.603 sg:fast greens vs. 0.262 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (-0.018 sg:fast greens vs. -0.334 sg:total)
Cameron Tringale (0.71 sg:fast greens vs. 0.395 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (0.941 sg:fast greens vs. 0.77 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (0.387 sg:fast greens vs. 0.234 sg:total)
We already lost him (barely) due to par 72 performance, but Hideki Matsuyama is more than a half-stroke better per round on quick greens. Guys like Justin Thomas and Paul Casey are right behind him. Check out the full table at the bottom for the complete list.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 11
Baseline Performance
Last week I talked about the new form filter that we can use at this stage. Instead of looking for at least 0.25 long-term SG:Total, we can filter out any golfers that are losing strokes to the field over the last 10 weeks of stroke-play events.
This week that means we can remove Hunter Mahan and Angel Cabrera.
Since we have the new form filter in place, I think it’s safe to drop the baseline SG:Total filter down to 0 instead of 0.25, which means David Lingmerth will stick around this week.
The Specialists
Marc Leishman
Kyle Reifers
Rory McIlroy
Adam Hadwin
Cameron Tringale
David Hearn
Scott Piercy
Patrick Reed
David Lingmerth
Our specialist this week is Marc Leishman.
This might be too soon for some of you, as he just suffered a heart-breaking missed cut a few weeks ago when he was also the specialist. However, the numbers suggest this might be another course he can tackle. He finished T5 here last year, so we know it’s possible.
Hearn and Piercy make specialist appearances for the second straight week. Hearn did not disappoint, while Piercy had a third-round 78 that really set him back on what was otherwise a great week.
McIlroy is obviously the class of this list. If he’s a specialist this week, that might help you make your decision if you’re trying to narrow down which of the big three to own this week.
I already mentioned Reifers and his local connection. Hadwin is a putting genius, but he can implode if his tee-to-green game doesn’t show up. Tringale is slowly finding some form. Reed is a top-10 machine, and Lingmerth is the defending champion here.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle. The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2013-14), Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained.
| Golfer | DK | SG:Total | Form | Bent | Par 72 | Fast Greens | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Ogilvy | $6,300 | -0.44 | -0.769 | 0.087 | -0.016 | 1.071 | 0.381 |
| Bud Cauley | $6,900 | 0.144 | 0 | 0.612 | 0.35 | 0 | 0.321 |
| Angel Cabrera | $6,300 | -0.334 | -0.851 | 0.273 | 0.284 | 0.316 | 0.291 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,900 | 0.77 | 0.788 | 0.293 | 0.356 | 0.171 | 0.273 |
| Johnson Wagner | $5,900 | -0.021 | 0.325 | 0.534 | 0.261 | 0 | 0.265 |
| Scott Pinckney | $6,400 | -0.134 | 0.159 | 0.442 | 0.329 | 0 | 0.257 |
| Justin Thomas | $8,200 | 0.796 | -0.15 | -0.075 | 0.387 | 0.418 | 0.243 |
| Kyle Reifers | $7,400 | 0.234 | 0.843 | 0.199 | 0.32 | 0.153 | 0.224 |
| Hunter Mahan | $6,600 | 0.262 | -0.971 | 0.175 | 0.079 | 0.341 | 0.198 |
| Rory McIlroy | $12,200 | 2.148 | 2.016 | 0.231 | 0.195 | 0.149 | 0.192 |
| Adam Hadwin | $6,900 | 0.264 | 0.513 | 0.32 | 0.136 | 0.108 | 0.188 |
| Cameron Tringale | $6,900 | 0.395 | 0.454 | 0.157 | 0.078 | 0.315 | 0.184 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $7,100 | 0.015 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 0 | 0.177 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $10,600 | 1.359 | 2.329 | -0.133 | 0.077 | 0.58 | 0.175 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | $7,900 | 0.617 | 1.641 | 0 | 0.514 | 0 | 0.171 |
| Jonas Blixt | $6,800 | -0.002 | -0.06 | -0.076 | 0.323 | 0.263 | 0.17 |
| Hiroshi Iwata | $6,000 | -0.221 | -1.504 | 0.178 | 0.265 | 0 | 0.148 |
| David Hearn | $6,700 | 0.325 | 0.96 | 0.15 | 0.138 | 0.133 | 0.14 |
| J.B. Holmes | $7,600 | 0.683 | 1.278 | -0.035 | 0.275 | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| Patton Kizzire | $7,100 | 0.539 | 0.153 | 0 | 0.409 | 0 | 0.136 |
| Jordan Spieth | $12,300 | 1.778 | 2.355 | 0.105 | 0.26 | -0.01 | 0.118 |
| Scott Piercy | $6,900 | 0.284 | 0.436 | 0.304 | 0.045 | 0.001 | 0.117 |
| Smylie Kaufman | $6,700 | 0.395 | -0.626 | 0 | 0.293 | 0 | 0.098 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,000 | 0.439 | 0.326 | 0 | 0.291 | 0 | 0.097 |
| Daniel Berger | $7,800 | 0.727 | 2.113 | 0.158 | 0.176 | -0.052 | 0.094 |
| Steven Bowditch | $6,300 | -0.448 | -2.107 | 0.291 | -0.053 | 0.043 | 0.094 |
| Ernie Els | $6,200 | -0.047 | -0.336 | 0.502 | -0.149 | -0.076 | 0.092 |
| Bill Haas | $7,700 | 0.854 | 0.63 | -0.051 | 0.193 | 0.115 | 0.086 |
| Andrew Loupe | $6,100 | -0.053 | 0.039 | -0.333 | 0.581 | 0 | 0.083 |
| Patrick Reed | $9,400 | 0.81 | 1.232 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 0.099 | 0.069 |
| Chez Reavie | $6,700 | 0.259 | 0.354 | 0.139 | 0.065 | 0 | 0.068 |
| Harold Varner III | $6,500 | 0.116 | 0.195 | 0 | 0.203 | 0 | 0.068 |
| Francesco Molinari | $7,400 | 0.81 | 1.432 | -0.158 | 0.341 | 0.019 | 0.067 |
| Ian Poulter | $6,700 | 0.406 | -0.15 | 0.159 | 0.166 | -0.137 | 0.063 |
| Paul Casey | $8,800 | 1.051 | 1.391 | -0.039 | -0.117 | 0.344 | 0.062 |
| Kevin Na | $8,100 | 1.021 | 0.336 | -0.287 | 0.262 | 0.192 | 0.056 |
| Tony Finau | $7,800 | 0.719 | 0.82 | 0.399 | 0.227 | -0.477 | 0.05 |
| Peter Malnati | $5,700 | -0.44 | -1.527 | 0 | 0.146 | 0 | 0.049 |
| Si Woo Kim | $6,400 | 0.49 | 0.55 | 0 | 0.136 | 0 | 0.045 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $6,800 | 0.233 | 0.206 | -0.213 | 0.135 | 0.196 | 0.039 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,000 | 0.346 | 1.06 | -0.149 | 0.265 | 0 | 0.039 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $7,200 | 0.131 | 0.523 | 0.261 | -0.152 | 0 | 0.036 |
| George Coetzee | $6,000 | 0.064 | 0 | 0 | 0.102 | 0 | 0.034 |
| Davis Love III | $8,300 | -0.391 | -0.916 | 0.141 | -0.291 | 0.249 | 0.033 |
| David Lingmerth | $7,300 | 0.037 | 0.163 | 0.057 | 0.018 | 0.012 | 0.029 |
| Kevin Chappell | $7,500 | 0.686 | 1.878 | 0.022 | -0.166 | 0.22 | 0.026 |
| Shawn Stefani | $5,800 | 0.213 | -0.685 | 0.161 | -0.245 | 0.147 | 0.021 |
| Roberto Castro | $6,600 | -0.103 | 0.683 | -0.608 | 0.256 | 0.409 | 0.019 |
| Brendon De Jonge | $5,700 | 0.178 | -0.949 | 0.134 | -0.134 | 0.045 | 0.015 |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,300 | 1.212 | 1.327 | 0.409 | -0.236 | -0.129 | 0.015 |
| Thomas Aiken | $7,200 | -0.125 | 0.348 | 0 | 0.032 | 0 | 0.011 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,000 | 0.753 | -0.12 | -0.081 | -0.026 | 0.136 | 0.01 |
| Nathan Holman | $5,700 | -1.645 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Ruffels | $6,100 | -0.146 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Hahn | $5,800 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wes Homan | $5,800 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ethan Tracy | $5,800 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byeong Hun An | $7,700 | 0.251 | 0.762 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | $6,600 | 0.304 | 0.761 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $7,000 | 0.375 | 0.636 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Lee | $7,500 | 0.525 | 0.862 | 0.185 | -0.022 | -0.183 | -0.007 |
| Russell Henley | $7,200 | 0.173 | 0.456 | 0.387 | 0.017 | -0.426 | -0.007 |
| Mark Hubbard | $6,200 | -0.073 | -0.089 | -0.252 | 0.222 | 0 | -0.01 |
| Jim Furyk | $7,300 | 1.634 | 0 | 0.297 | -0.311 | -0.022 | -0.012 |
| Charles Howell III | $7,400 | 0.731 | 1.16 | -0.032 | 0.12 | -0.132 | -0.015 |
| Jon Curran | $6,400 | 0.086 | -0.247 | -0.015 | 0.071 | -0.2 | -0.048 |
| Ricky Barnes | $5,900 | -0.002 | 0.268 | -0.1 | -0.175 | 0.126 | -0.05 |
| Hudson Swafford | $5,800 | 0.066 | -0.462 | 0.06 | 0.02 | -0.246 | -0.056 |
| Brendon Todd | $6,200 | 0.346 | -2.259 | 0.148 | -0.096 | -0.221 | -0.056 |
| John Senden | $6,600 | 0.471 | 0.628 | 0.027 | -0.078 | -0.133 | -0.061 |
| Graham DeLaet | $7,100 | 0.692 | 0.474 | 0.149 | -0.182 | -0.153 | -0.062 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $6,100 | 0.512 | -0.42 | -0.461 | 0.253 | 0 | -0.069 |
| Jason Bohn | $5,900 | 0.527 | -1.368 | -0.145 | -0.093 | 0.028 | -0.07 |
| Dustin Johnson | $10,100 | 1.687 | 2.236 | 0.005 | 0.058 | -0.275 | -0.07 |
| Kevin Kisner | $8,600 | 0.582 | -0.242 | 0.089 | -0.011 | -0.303 | -0.075 |
| Brendan Steele | $7,100 | 0.73 | 0.17 | -0.448 | 0.103 | 0.117 | -0.076 |
| Matt Jones | $6,100 | 0.214 | -1.458 | -0.246 | 0.181 | -0.176 | -0.08 |
| Matt Kuchar | $9,900 | 1.357 | 1.712 | 0.005 | -0.012 | -0.234 | -0.08 |
| Bubba Watson | $9,600 | 1.591 | 0 | -0.048 | -0.125 | -0.072 | -0.082 |
| Stuart Appleby | $5,700 | 0.153 | 0.59 | -0.201 | -0.051 | 0 | -0.084 |
| George McNeill | $6,400 | 0.416 | -0.268 | -0.042 | -0.137 | -0.086 | -0.088 |
| Kevin Streelman | $6,800 | 0.093 | -0.642 | -0.216 | 0.136 | -0.2 | -0.093 |
| Carl Pettersson | $6,000 | -0.004 | -2.464 | 0.152 | -0.182 | -0.301 | -0.11 |
| Scott Langley | $6,300 | 0.093 | 0.322 | -0.138 | 0.002 | -0.204 | -0.113 |
| Robert Streb | $6,200 | 0.558 | -0.816 | -0.088 | -0.017 | -0.238 | -0.114 |
| K.J. Choi | $6,000 | 0.279 | -0.092 | -0.583 | 0.037 | 0.198 | -0.116 |
| Phil Mickelson | $9,100 | 1.076 | 0.915 | -0.23 | 0.297 | -0.426 | -0.12 |
| Lucas Glover | $6,500 | -0.163 | 0.832 | -1.026 | 0.429 | 0.215 | -0.127 |
| Jim Herman | $5,900 | 0.038 | -0.059 | -0.132 | 0.166 | -0.42 | -0.129 |
| Jason Day | $12,400 | 1.956 | 2.997 | -0.071 | -0.015 | -0.319 | -0.135 |
| Troy Merritt | $6,500 | -0.195 | 0.204 | 0.058 | -0.36 | -0.117 | -0.14 |
| Morgan Hoffmann | $6,100 | 0.009 | -0.539 | -0.101 | -0.296 | -0.032 | -0.143 |
| Chris Kirk | $8,300 | 0.587 | 1.425 | -0.074 | -0.051 | -0.312 | -0.145 |
| Scott Brown | $5,900 | 0.203 | -0.366 | -0.202 | -0.218 | -0.022 | -0.147 |
| Russell Knox | $7,600 | 0.852 | 1.667 | -0.092 | -0.223 | -0.144 | -0.153 |
| Ryan Moore | $7,300 | 0.722 | -1.81 | -0.263 | -0.073 | -0.13 | -0.155 |
| Gary Woodland | $8,000 | 0.697 | 1.06 | -0.309 | 0.211 | -0.391 | -0.163 |
| Ken Duke | $6,300 | -0.412 | -1.302 | -0.195 | -0.582 | 0.279 | -0.166 |
| D.H. Lee | $5,700 | -1.459 | -2.602 | 0 | -0.566 | 0 | -0.189 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,500 | 0.02 | 0.345 | -0.117 | 0.181 | -0.644 | -0.194 |
| John Huh | $6,600 | -0.041 | -1.885 | -0.068 | -0.141 | -0.389 | -0.199 |
| Camilo Villegas | $6,100 | 0.105 | -0.606 | -0.165 | -0.324 | -0.116 | -0.202 |
| Alex Cejka | $6,200 | 0.238 | 0.555 | -0.348 | 0.009 | -0.275 | -0.205 |
| Freddie Jacobson | $6,000 | 0.441 | 0.355 | -0.519 | 0.069 | -0.205 | -0.218 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $8,000 | 0.826 | 0.632 | -0.065 | -0.226 | -0.369 | -0.22 |
| Jason Kokrak | $7,300 | 0.536 | 0.256 | -1.043 | -0.001 | 0.375 | -0.223 |
| Ben Martin | $6,200 | 0.228 | 0.026 | -0.244 | -0.188 | -0.264 | -0.232 |
| Spencer Levin | $7,000 | 0.14 | 0.273 | -0.207 | -0.245 | -0.266 | -0.239 |
| Aaron Baddeley | $6,700 | 0.224 | 0.343 | -0.193 | 0.128 | -0.69 | -0.251 |
| Webb Simpson | $7,500 | 0.702 | 0.291 | -0.179 | -0.249 | -0.37 | -0.266 |
| Sean O’Hair | $6,800 | 0.15 | 0.468 | -0.211 | 0.076 | -0.698 | -0.277 |
| Daniel Summerhays | $6,900 | 0.583 | 0.743 | -0.269 | 0.019 | -0.72 | -0.323 |
| William McGirt | $6,500 | 0.444 | 0.334 | -0.127 | -0.449 | -0.452 | -0.343 |
| Brian Stuard | $5,800 | 0.139 | 0.074 | -0.271 | 0.015 | -0.794 | -0.35 |
| Brian Harman | $6,800 | 0.326 | 0.169 | 0.008 | -0.263 | -1.072 | -0.443 |
| Jason Dufner | $8,400 | 0.545 | 0.647 | -0.239 | -0.085 | -1.244 | -0.523 |
| Zac Blair | $6,000 | 0.111 | 0.124 | -0.581 | -0.066 | -0.931 | -0.526 |
| Fabian Gomez | $6,600 | -0.092 | -0.628 | -0.945 | -0.407 | -0.331 | -0.561 |
| Luke Donald | $7,200 | 0.483 | 0.751 | -0.346 | -0.447 | -0.969 | -0.587 |