Searching for a Specialist: The Memorial Tournament

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Welcome back to another specialist search.

Last week Danny Lee tried to pull out a win for the specialist crew and Scott Piercy (GPP-only specialist) also threw his name into contention. Our main specialist, Chad Campbell, got stuck on the wrong side of the weather draw but still managed a decent finish. Overall a good week, so let’s build on that as we head to Ohio.

For this week’s event we are going to look at performance of three different angles: Bentgrass Greens, Fast Greens, and Nicklaus Designed Courses.

Let’s go …

Bentgrass Greens

Muirfield Village greens are known to be pure and also quite speedy.

Being on the proper side of the pin on approach is key, but being able to putt on bentgrass is also a big plus.

The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists are:

Kevin Tway (0.702 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.096 sg:total)
Johnson Wagner (0.928 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.48 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (1.202 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.765 sg:total)
Soren Kjeldsen (1.399 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.023 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (1.076 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.708 sg:total)
Michael Kim (1.095 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.749 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.427 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.098 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (1.876 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.567 sg:total)
Steven Bowditch (-0.181 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.49 sg:total)
Kelly Kraft (0.557 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.268 sg:total)

Fowler’s history on bentgrass is through the roof. In this field, only Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, and Dustin Johnson have a better track record on bent since the start of 2014, but their baselines are all higher to begin with. He has missed three straight cuts here at Muirfield Village, though, so something has to give.

I will continue to auto-fade Lucas Glover on bentgrass as he’s found just one top 25 over his last 26 starts on bentgrass.

Fast Greens

The biggest attribute of Muirfield Village is the fast greens. They are known to be some of the fastest the TOUR faces each year, outside of Augusta National.

When playing a course with fast greens, it is crucial to position your approach shots in the right quadrants, or you’ll be lucky to two-putt.

Of course, anyone that grew up or routinely plays on speedy greens are also at an advantage as they’ve likely molded their putting stroke to fit the fast-green template.

Let’s see who shines on fast greens…

The 10 Fast Green Specialists:

Greg Chalmers (0.55 sg:fast greens vs. -0.103 sg:total)
Matt Every (0.134 sg:fast greens vs. -0.515 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (1.092 sg:fast greens vs. 0.511 sg:total)
Harold Varner III (1.308 sg:fast greens vs. 0.745 sg:total)
Ryo Ishikawa (0.827 sg:fast greens vs. 0.288 sg:total)
Hunter Mahan (1.154 sg:fast greens vs. 0.621 sg:total)
K.J. Choi (1.151 sg:fast greens vs. 0.64 sg:total)
Soren Kjeldsen (1.495 sg:fast greens vs. 1.023 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.786 sg:fast greens vs. 1.315 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.133 sg:fast greens vs. 2.681 sg:total)

Not the prettiest list on the block, outside of DJ.

I would recommend taking a look at the table located at the bottom of the article to see who else grades out above average on fast greens.

On the flip side, we can probably safely avoid golfers like Patton Kizzire and Sean O’Hair who headline the bottom of the fast green rankings.

Nicklaus Design

Much like Pete Dye designs, Jack Nicklaus courses have a unique flavor to them.

Nicklaus was known for his high fade, and that has bled over to his course design templates. Being able to shape the ball is usually a big advantage on his tracks.

Let’s see who fares well on these Nicklaus layouts:

The Top 10 Nicklaus Design Specialists:

David Lingmerth (1.878 sg:nicklaus design vs. 0.792 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.924 sg:nicklaus design vs. 2.059 sg:total)
Luke Donald (1.994 sg:nicklaus design vs. 1.146 sg:total)
Russell Knox (2.17 sg:nicklaus design vs. 1.482 sg:total)
William McGirt (1.777 sg:nicklaus design vs. 1.119 sg:total)
Ricky Barnes (1.087 sg:nicklaus design vs. 0.434 sg:total)
Jim Furyk (2.702 sg:nicklaus design vs. 2.091 sg:total)
Matt Every (-0.084 sg:nicklaus design vs. -0.515 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (1.6 sg:nicklaus design vs. 1.19 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.827 sg:nicklaus design vs. 1.432 sg:total)

Looking at this list, we see it flooded with “fairways-and-greens” type of golfers.

If we think shaping the ball is key on approach on Nicklaus tracks then it makes sense that the golfers that split fairway after fairway have a better chance of doing that. It’s really hard to get enough spin out of the rough to shape the ball or land the ball in the right green quadrants.

A lot of golfers don’t have the sample size needed for Nicklaus Courses but the correlation to success was too high to ignore. Feel free to check out the table at the bottom to see what golfers grade out very well in Bentgrass AND Fast Greens but don’t have a large enough sample for Nicklaus Designs.

Baseline Performance

The goal of this search is to find some golfers with a good course fit. At the same time, we don’t want to rely on golfers that need the week of their lives just to crack the top 25.

The top list of golfers are struggling with their current form (below the field average), making them GPP-only options despite their good course fit.

Right below them are golfers that have a baseline performance below the field average, meaning they also need a huge week just to get by.

GPP-Only Options:

Graham DeLaet
Vijay Singh
Jim Furyk
Ricky Barnes
David Hearn
Brendon de Jonge
David Lingmerth
Billy Hurley III

Last week we saw Scott Piercy contend out of this GPP-only category, but we shouldn’t rely on it to be consistent week-to-week. There is a reason these guys are bucketed in the GPP-only category.

The Specialists

Matt Kuchar
William McGirt
Stewart Cink
Adam Hadwin
Keegan Bradley
Marc Leishman

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Our specialist this week is Matt Kuchar!

Kuchar has a great course fit and also has the course history results to back it up. In 11 starts here he is 10-for-11 with eight top 15s.

McGirt is the defending champ so we know he can contend but how will he fare trying to defend his first PGA TOUR title?

Leishman is struggling with the flat stick recently but he’s gained strokes putting in each of his last four visits here. Should be a good time to rebound.

The Anti-Specialists

The specialists above are positive in all three angles, but which golfers are the opposite and show a poor course fit?

Sean O’Hair
Zac Blair
Jim Herman

O’Hair is riding some stellar form into Jack’s Place, but he’s missed the cut in each of his last four visits. I will gladly fade.

The other two name wouldn’t spark any interest for me without poor course fit, so I definitely won’t jump on board now that they grade out as poor course fits, as well.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),

Form looks at the performance over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro).

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG:Total Form Bentgrass Nicklaus Fast Greens Specialist Rating
David Lingmerth $7,400 $6,100 $13,300 0.792 1.443 0.146 1.086 0.104 0.445
Ricky Barnes $6,300 $5,200 $11,700 0.434 0.421 0.203 0.653 0.282 0.38
Matt Kuchar $9,400 $9,500 $16,000 2.059 1.899 0.122 0.866 0.078 0.355
Billy Hurley III $7,000 $5,800 $12,000 0.765 1.733 0.437 0.176 0.404 0.339
David Hearn $6,200 $5,500 $11,500 0.879 -0.052 0.252 0.242 0.424 0.306
Jim Furyk $7,500 $6,500 $12,500 2.091 0.51 0.163 0.611 0.093 0.289
Soren Kjeldsen $6,400 $6,300 $12,600 1.023 0.654 0.376 0 0.472 0.283
Hunter Mahan $6,600 $5,200 $10,700 0.621 -0.257 0.287 0 0.533 0.273
William McGirt $8,600 $6,900 $14,000 1.119 1.81 0.038 0.658 0.101 0.266
Stewart Cink $7,000 $6,600 $12,900 1.08 1.819 0.179 0.233 0.385 0.266
Brendon de Jonge $7,100 $4,500 $10,600 0.635 -1.538 0.224 0.208 0.261 0.231
Adam Hadwin $7,600 $7,800 $13,900 1.19 1.2 0.015 0.41 0.268 0.231
Emiliano Grillo $8,500 $7,700 $14,600 1.567 1.666 0.309 0 0.365 0.225
Vijay Singh $6,200 $4,800 $11,800 0.548 0.732 0.187 0.009 0.449 0.215
Greg Chalmers $6,800 $4,500 $10,700 -0.103 -0.541 -0.014 0 0.652 0.213
Kyle Reifers $6,800 $5,300 $11,800 0.708 1.053 0.368 0 0.248 0.205
Scott Brown $7,400 $6,300 $12,500 0.712 1.147 -0.017 0.352 0.278 0.204
Kevin Tway $6,500 $6,800 $13,900 0.096 2.568 0.606 0 0 0.202
Keegan Bradley $6,700 $7,000 $14,100 1.453 1.121 0.163 0.122 0.304 0.196
Matt Every $6,400 $4,500 $10,600 -0.515 -1.175 -0.521 0.431 0.649 0.186
Russell Knox $6,300 $6,900 $12,700 1.482 1.122 0.113 0.688 -0.268 0.178
Kevin Chappell $7,800 $6,900 $14,700 1.292 2.89 0.119 0 0.361 0.16
Dustin Johnson $12,000 $11,800 $19,700 2.681 3.154 -0.011 0 0.452 0.147
Graham DeLaet $6,700 $6,100 $12,900 1.189 0.738 0.057 0.237 0.146 0.146
Roberto Castro $6,800 $4,800 $11,100 0.511 -0.594 -0.148 0 0.581 0.145
Charley Hoffman $6,500 $7,500 $13,700 1.315 1.63 -0.045 0 0.471 0.142
Marc Leishman $6,900 $7,300 $14,500 1.531 1.386 0.047 0.301 0.071 0.14
Kyle Stanley $7,400 $6,100 $13,700 0.57 2.085 0.117 0 0.275 0.131
Steven Bowditch $6,400 $4,500 NA -0.49 -2.019 0.308 0 0.076 0.128
Ryo Ishikawa $7,200 $4,600 $10,800 0.288 -1.305 -0.041 -0.124 0.539 0.125
Zach Johnson $6,900 $7,800 $13,400 1.623 0.951 0.089 0 0.282 0.124
Rod Pampling $6,200 $4,900 $10,800 0.211 0.76 0.287 0 0.079 0.122
Nick Taylor $6,300 $5,500 $12,400 0.578 1.76 0.071 0 0.278 0.116
Michael Kim $6,400 $5,400 $11,800 0.749 1.017 0.345 0 0 0.115
Billy Horschel $6,700 $7,100 $14,500 1.348 0.949 0.082 -0.1 0.34 0.107
Retief Goosen $6,800 $5,000 $11,400 0.644 1.209 -0.109 0 0.418 0.103
Kelly Kraft $6,500 $5,100 $11,800 0.268 -0.258 0.29 0 0 0.097
Ollie Schniederjans $8,300 $7,200 $13,700 1.125 1.929 0.279 0 0 0.093
Chris Kirk $7,100 $6,500 $13,000 1.244 0.436 -0.01 0.207 0.081 0.092
Harold Varner III $6,300 $5,600 $11,700 0.745 1.081 -0.293 0 0.563 0.09
Smylie Kaufman $6,600 $6,100 $13,200 0.756 1.891 0.177 0 0.056 0.078
Alex Cejka $6,900 $4,800 $10,700 0.677 -0.094 0.1 0.197 -0.08 0.072
J.B. Holmes $7,900 $8,300 $13,900 1.444 0.745 0.057 0 0.159 0.072
Patrick Rodgers $6,400 $5,300 $11,800 0.642 -0.169 -0.047 0 0.248 0.067
Bud Cauley $8,000 $7,100 $14,600 1.032 2.318 0.186 0 0 0.062
Scott Piercy $7,800 $6,700 $13,300 1.066 0.247 0.171 0 0.01 0.06
Bill Haas $6,900 $8,100 NA 1.66 0.711 0.035 0 0.134 0.056
Si Woo Kim $6,400 $6,600 $13,200 0.802 1.607 -0.046 0 0.211 0.055
Steve Stricker $6,900 $7,600 $14,400 1.63 2.683 0.111 0 0.048 0.053
Jon Rahm $11,100 $10,800 $18,100 2.364 2.714 0.142 0 0 0.047
Rickie Fowler $8,900 $9,300 $16,400 2.098 2.875 0.33 0 -0.19 0.046
Camilo Villegas $7,300 $5,200 $11,800 0.629 0.48 -0.254 0.386 0.008 0.046
Jonas Blixt $7,200 $5,800 $12,400 0.574 0.08 -0.116 0 0.243 0.043
Vaughn Taylor $6,200 $5,900 $12,000 0.933 1.394 0.046 0 0.073 0.04
Hideki Matsuyama $10,000 $9,800 $17,200 2.205 2.834 -0.033 0 0.141 0.036
Sung Kang $6,500 $6,400 $13,400 1.107 2.366 0.105 0 0 0.035
Charl Schwartzel $6,800 $6,900 $14,500 1.69 2.471 0.066 0 0.014 0.027
Jason Kokrak $6,800 $5,200 $12,300 1.068 0.218 -0.341 0.021 0.397 0.026
Patrick Reed $9,200 $8,800 $15,600 1.62 1.56 0.133 0 -0.07 0.021
K.J. Choi $6,600 $5,100 NA 0.64 -0.098 -0.356 -0.095 0.512 0.02
Adam Scott $9,800 $9,700 $16,600 2.393 2.542 -0.109 0 0.167 0.019
Brian Stuard $7,100 $4,800 $11,800 0.594 0.715 0.006 0.39 -0.345 0.017
Jamie Lovemark $6,300 $6,000 $12,300 0.911 1.067 -0.355 0 0.396 0.014
Johnson Wagner $7,200 $4,500 $10,900 0.48 -0.177 0.448 0.185 -0.597 0.012
Webb Simpson $7,900 $7,500 $15,000 1.416 2.265 0.143 0 -0.111 0.011
Kevin Kisner $7,600 $9,100 $15,700 1.334 1.977 -0.062 0.187 -0.096 0.01
Patrick Cantlay $7,800 $6,600 $15,000 1.038 2.445 0 0 0 0
Yuta Ikeda $7,400 $6,000 $11,000 0.283 1.065 0 0 0 0
J.J. Spaun $7,000 NA $11,800 0.926 1.028 0 0 0 0
Grayson Murray $7,000 $4,900 $11,600 0.304 0.727 0 0 0 0
Peter Uihlein $6,800 $6,600 $12,800 0.326 1.684 0 0 0 0
Mackenzie Hughes $6,700 $5,600 $11,500 0.706 0.576 0 0 0 0
Brett Coletta $6,500 $4,500 $10,700 -1.87 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Ruffels $6,300 $4,900 $11,800 0.617 0 0 0 0 0
Matthew Griffin $6,300 $4,700 $10,700 -3.535 0 0 0 0 0
Curtis Luck $6,200 $5,100 $11,300 0.568 0.936 0 0 0 0
C.T. Pan $6,200 $4,600 $10,800 0.417 -0.434 0 0 0 0
Ryan Armour $6,200 $4,700 $10,800 0.081 0.856 0 0 0 0
Scott Gregory $6,200 $4,700 $10,600 -2.18 -2.564 0 0 0 0
Padraig Harrington $7,300 $4,600 $11,600 0.202 0.538 0.214 0 -0.214 0
Shane Lowry $6,600 $7,400 $14,100 1.558 1.53 -0.363 0 0.361 -0.001
Ben Martin $6,300 $5,600 $12,200 0.743 1.098 -0.098 0.141 -0.049 -0.002
Brooks Koepka $9,700 $9,400 $16,000 1.848 2.897 -0.037 0 0.027 -0.003
Kevin Streelman $7,700 $5,600 $12,600 0.869 0.586 -0.127 0 0.117 -0.003
James Hahn $7,300 $5,700 $12,400 0.717 0.735 -0.055 0 -0.014 -0.023
Luke List $7,300 $5,800 $11,900 1.282 1.231 -0.083 0 0 -0.028
Jordan Spieth $11,000 $10,000 $18,100 2.573 2.054 0.062 0 -0.147 -0.028
Bubba Watson $6,600 $6,700 $13,400 2.063 0.371 -0.008 0 -0.079 -0.029
Sam Saunders $6,500 $5,000 $11,700 0.216 1.667 -0.107 0 0.004 -0.034
Ross Fisher $7,100 $6,200 $13,700 1.635 2.199 -0.114 0 0 -0.038
Brian Harman $8,200 $7,000 $14,400 1.103 2.386 0.204 0.237 -0.587 -0.048
Ryan Moore $6,700 $8,000 $13,600 1.553 1.405 -0.132 0 -0.018 -0.05
Jason Day $10,300 $10,300 $17,700 2.763 2.467 0.126 0 -0.294 -0.056
Rafa Cabrera Bello $6,700 $8,400 $13,900 1.526 1.422 -0.17 0 0 -0.057
Justin Thomas $7,600 $9,000 $15,600 1.698 1.393 -0.237 0 0.052 -0.062
Luke Donald $6,900 $6,400 $12,300 1.146 0.367 -0.361 0.848 -0.681 -0.065
Daniel Summerhays $7,300 $5,800 $11,800 1.033 0.512 -0.204 0.287 -0.294 -0.07
Jim Herman $7,100 $4,900 $12,000 0.689 0.611 -0.095 -0.018 -0.141 -0.085
Byeong Hun An $6,900 $7,500 $15,000 1.237 2.162 -0.13 0 -0.138 -0.089
Morgan Hoffmann $7,500 $6,100 $12,700 0.574 1.317 0.121 -0.297 -0.097 -0.091
Hudson Swafford $6,600 $5,700 $12,300 0.784 0.908 0.127 -0.527 0.116 -0.095
Aaron Baddeley $6,600 $5,200 $11,900 0.732 1.847 -0.129 0 -0.172 -0.1
Carl Pettersson $6,400 $4,500 $10,700 0.204 0.195 0.178 -0.192 -0.312 -0.109
Anirban Lahiri $6,400 $5,600 $11,700 0.702 -0.557 0.084 0 -0.425 -0.114
Jason Dufner $8,700 $8,200 $14,700 1.432 1.879 -0.214 0.395 -0.565 -0.128
Danny Lee $7,500 $7,200 $14,200 1.001 1.34 0.239 -0.534 -0.11 -0.135
Martin Laird $7,200 $6,600 $12,300 0.999 1.082 -0.263 0 -0.148 -0.137
Brendan Steele $6,700 $7,300 $14,200 1.499 1.951 -0.491 -0.097 0.176 -0.137
Phil Mickelson $7,700 $9,200 $14,800 1.959 1.825 -0.01 0 -0.404 -0.138
Gary Woodland $7,200 $7,900 $13,900 1.517 0.371 -0.154 0 -0.286 -0.147
Lucas Glover $7,000 $6,500 $13,100 0.78 1.267 -0.839 -0.006 0.396 -0.15
Tommy Fleetwood $7,700 $7,200 $13,600 1.081 1.691 -0.513 0 0 -0.171
Tony Finau $7,900 $8,600 $15,300 1.459 2.347 0.152 -0.195 -0.526 -0.19
Pat Perez $6,800 $7,300 $14,100 1.12 1.835 -0.382 -0.276 0.052 -0.202
D.A. Points $6,900 $4,900 $11,100 -0.016 0.941 -0.397 0 -0.3 -0.232
Zac Blair $6,500 $5,500 $11,900 0.669 0.92 -0.196 -0.18 -0.337 -0.238
Fabian Gomez $6,600 $5,100 $10,700 0.439 0.444 -0.419 0 -0.296 -0.238
Sean O’Hair $6,700 $6,800 $13,800 0.821 1.774 -0.009 -0.066 -0.7 -0.258
Cameron Smith $6,500 $6,400 $12,900 0.836 1.451 -0.296 0 -0.611 -0.302
Patton Kizzire $7,400 $5,300 $11,400 0.628 0.107 -0.245 0 -0.91 -0.385

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.