Searching for a Specialist: Tour Championship

The PGA TOUR season comes to an end this week at East Lake Golf Club. We’ll have a long wait of one week until next season!

Before we look for a specialist at East Lake, let’s review last week like we always do. For the BMW Championship we had Rickie Fowler and Kevin Chappell as our specialists and they finished 2nd and 12th, respectively. We’ll take that any day of the week. Or should I say, any week of the year!

Let’s keep it rolling this week in Atlanta. We are going to look at performance at the following angles: bermuda greens, par 70 courses, no-cut events, hard-to-hit fairways, and FedExCup Playoffs.

Here we go …

Bermuda Greens

Most of the summer events take place on bentgrass greens, but we head back to bermuda this week.

That means form may not be a huge deal as comfort on bermuda can often override that.

The Top 10 Bermuda Specialists are:

Pat Perez (1.439 sg:bermuda vs. 1.198 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (1.742 sg:bermuda vs. 1.521 sg:total)
Webb Simpson (1.708 sg:bermuda vs. 1.499 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.669 sg:bermuda vs. 1.461 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.604 sg:bermuda vs. 1.398 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.49 sg:bermuda vs. 1.338 sg:total)
Sergio Garcia (2.531 sg:bermuda vs. 2.396 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (1.705 sg:bermuda vs. 1.618 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.348 sg:bermuda vs. 2.296 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.526 sg:bermuda vs. 1.485 sg:total)

Like I said, most of the recent events have been on bentgrass, so it’s no surprise to see most of this list out of form.

Looking at the top 10 rated golfers in terms of FORM this week, only one is also positive on bermuda. That is Charley Hoffman.

Par 70 Courses

East Lake is a pretty lengthy track by par 70 standards.

That means just two par 5s per round this week. Some of the guys that lean heavily on par-5 scoring, will have to find other ways to score.

The 10 Par 70 Specialists:

Xander Schauffele (1.889 sg:par70 vs. 1.209 sg:total)
Webb Simpson (1.985 sg:par70 vs. 1.499 sg:total)
Jason Day (3.137 sg:par70 vs. 2.711 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.813 sg:par70 vs. 1.398 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (1.872 sg:par70 vs. 1.618 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.384 sg:par70 vs. 2.153 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.543 sg:par70 vs. 1.338 sg:total)
Sergio Garcia (2.573 sg:par70 vs. 2.396 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.612 sg:par70 vs. 1.461 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.257 sg:par70 vs. 2.112 sg:total)

The two names that stand out are Jason Day and Sergio Garcia.

Day is over THREE strokes gained per round on par 70 layouts while Garcia is more than 2.5 per round. Pretty monster numbers, there.

No-Cut Events

The vibe in a no-cut event is completely different from a weekly event where you know only 70 golfers will play the weekend.

Volatile play will get more rewarded in a no-cut event since a golfer can just hang around and wait for that one really low round.

The Top 10 No-Cut Specialists are:

Justin Thomas (2.44 sg:no-cut vs. 1.837 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (2.11 sg:no-cut vs. 1.618 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.044 sg:no-cut vs. 2.65 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.493 sg:no-cut vs. 2.112 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.774 sg:no-cut vs. 1.398 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.535 sg:no-cut vs. 2.26 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.222 sg:no-cut vs. 2.153 sg:total)
Sergio Garcia (2.423 sg:no-cut vs. 2.396 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.305 sg:no-cut vs. 2.296 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (2.467 sg:no-cut vs. 1.209 sg:total)

Some of the list above are Steady Eddies but a majority are boom-or-bust guys that aren’t strangers to an occasional double or even triple bogey.

Justin Thomas is the one that stands out here as THREE of his six PGA TOUR wins have come in no-cut events while he also won the Dell Tech which is also a smaller-field event.

Hard-to-Hit Fairways

When fairways are tough to hit that usually means an advantage goes to the big hitters.

That is partially due to what courses fairways to be hard to hit. One can be firm and fast conditions, leading to balls bouncing through the fairways on drives. Another can be the lack of hazards surrounding the fairways. If golfers are able to blast driver on a large percentage of holes, they are going to hit fewer fairways.

This week is sort of in between. Golfers will pull plenty of drivers this week, but the rough is very tough, so it’s also a big advantage to split the fairways. That means the super accurate types are also very much in play.

The Top 10 Hard Fairway Specialists:

Jon Rahm (2.836 sg:hard fairways vs. 2.351 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.853 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.485 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.156 sg:hard fairways vs. 0.788 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (1.805 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.521 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (2.91 sg:hard fairways vs. 2.65 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (1.865 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.618 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.371 sg:hard fairways vs. 2.153 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.265 sg:hard fairways vs. 2.112 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.425 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.338 sg:total)
Webb Simpson (1.582 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.499 sg:total)

A heavy dose of bombers on the list above but we also see names like Kuchar, Kisner, and Simpson.

At the bottom of the list we see Jordan Spieth but he’s won at East Lake and also finished runner-up here, so it’s nothing to be overly concerned about.

FedExCup Playoffs

Who likes to keep their seatbelt buckled until the season comes to a complete stop?

Who values the FedExCup title and/or $10 Million Bonus that goes along with winning?

Looking at performance in FedExCup events may helps us find those answers…

The Top 10 FedExCup Specialists:

Paul Casey (2.914 sg:FedExCup vs. 2.112 sg:total)
Jason Day (3.474 sg:FedExCup vs. 2.711 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (2.105 sg:FedExCup vs. 1.398 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.344 sg:FedExCup vs. 0.788 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (2.337 sg:FedExCup vs. 1.837 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.739 sg:FedExCup vs. 2.26 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.128 sg:FedExCup vs. 2.65 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (1.981 sg:FedExCup vs. 1.521 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.584 sg:FedExCup vs. 1.198 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (1.69 sg:FedExCup vs. 1.618 sg:total)

Jason Day leaps off the page again, this time with 14 top 15s in the FedExCup Playoffs since the start of 2013 (two wins).

Paul Casey doesn’t have those wins like Jason Day but he has finished top 5 in five of his last six during the FEC Playoffs.

The Specialist

Daniel Berger

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Our specialist this week is Daniel Berger!

As long as he’s not withdrawing after hitting one tee shot, Berger is typically money in no-cut events.

He’s slightly better on bermuda, but having grown up in Florida, he’s surely CONFIDENT when it comes to putting on bermuda.

Lastly, he arrives with some poor form, particularly in the putting department. That should help lower his ownership this week, despite his sub-$7K price tag.

The Anti-Specialists

The specialists above are positive in all five angles, but which golfers are the opposite and show a poor course fit?

Russell Henley
Patrick Reed

A couple of Georgia boys, it’s surprising to see him both (slightly) worse in the bermuda department.

They are actually surprisingly similar golfers. They are both decent off-the-tee, struggle (relatively) from tee-to-green and then can get red-hot with the flat stick. They have 8 PGA TOUR wins to show for that. If we are on the putting surface where they are less likely to get hot, it’s worth considering a fade, but the margins are very thin. Neither look like extreme must-fades.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

I don’t want this article to just be a narrowed down list each week with only the specialists looking capable of success.

Another way you could view the table, is to incorporate baseline performance and form into the equation.

A simple equation could be RANK OF BASELINE PERFORMANCE + RANK OF FORM + RANK OF SPECIALIST RATING. That would create a top-15 list that looks like this:

Dustin Johnson
Jason Day
Paul Casey
Rickie Fowler
Jon Rahm
Matt Kuchar
Justin Thomas
Jordan Spieth
Kevin Chappell
Daniel Berger
Charley Hoffman
Justin Rose
Hideki Matsuyama
Marc Leishman
Gary Woodland

From this view, we can see who is checking the boxes in long-term, short-term, and course fit. It may help us identify some values on DraftKings and FanDuel like Matt Kuchar, Kevin Chappell, Daniel Berger, Charley Hoffman, and Gary Woodland. All five are ranked inside the top half of the field in this metric, but they are sub-$8 on both sites.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),

Form looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA & Euro).

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG:Total Form Bermuda Par 70 No Cut Hard FW FedExCup Specialist Rating
Kevin Chappell $7,600 $6,700 $15,600 1.398 65.09 0.205 0.415 0.376 -0.139 0.706 0.313
Paul Casey $8,600 $8,000 $17,200 2.112 83.442 -0.174 0.145 0.381 0.153 0.802 0.262
Daniel Berger $6,900 $7,000 $14,600 1.618 47.595 0.087 0.255 0.492 0.248 0.073 0.231
Jason Day $10,100 $8,800 $18,000 2.711 70.942 -0.069 0.426 -0.012 -0.031 0.763 0.216
Jhonattan Vegas $6,200 $5,600 $12,400 0.788 39.468 0.015 0.051 -0.235 0.367 0.556 0.151
Xander Schauffele $6,800 $5,700 $13,600 1.209 41.321 0 0.68 0 0.029 0 0.142
Dustin Johnson $11,400 $9,200 $19,100 2.65 85.393 -0.339 -0.118 0.393 0.26 0.478 0.135
Gary Woodland $6,400 $5,800 $14,400 1.521 45.383 0.222 -0.161 -0.175 0.285 0.46 0.126
Justin Thomas $9,900 $9,000 $18,200 1.837 73.139 -0.121 -0.409 0.603 -0.094 0.499 0.096
Jon Rahm $9,500 $8,500 $17,600 2.351 72.942 0 -0.111 0 0.485 0 0.075
Matt Kuchar $7,700 $7,400 $16,000 2.153 81.893 -0.041 0.231 0.069 0.218 -0.141 0.067
Rickie Fowler $10,900 $8,700 $18,600 2.26 84.942 -0.121 -0.095 0.275 -0.414 0.479 0.025
Webb Simpson $7,500 $6,300 $15,000 1.499 55.876 0.209 0.486 -0.229 0.083 -0.538 0.002
Patrick Cantlay $7,800 $6,900 $15,400 1.538 52.378 0 0 0 0 0 0
Charley Hoffman $7,300 $6,500 $14,800 1.485 85.668 0.041 0.14 -0.183 0.368 -0.411 -0.009
Kyle Stanley $6,300 $6,200 $12,400 0.738 23.15 -0.17 0.087 0 0.017 0 -0.013
Pat Perez $6,400 $6,100 $13,800 1.198 33.587 0.241 -0.436 -0.219 -0.196 0.386 -0.045
Brian Harman $6,300 $5,500 $12,800 1.147 27.903 -0.04 0.064 -0.261 -0.101 0.066 -0.054
Sergio Garcia $7,900 $7,500 $15,800 2.396 27.997 0.135 0.177 0.027 -0.165 -0.507 -0.067
Kevin Kisner $6,700 $7,000 $13,000 1.338 39.583 0.152 0.205 -0.257 0.087 -0.632 -0.089
Adam Hadwin $6,200 $5,900 $12,600 1.13 19.842 0.023 -0.329 0 -0.149 0 -0.091
Jason Dufner $6,500 $6,600 $13,400 1.461 40.809 0.208 0.15 -0.399 -0.238 -0.219 -0.1
Justin Rose $8,900 $7,700 $17,000 2.402 54.321 -0.103 -0.098 -0.234 -0.175 0.012 -0.12
Marc Leishman $8,400 $8,200 $16,800 1.713 74.432 -0.092 -0.071 -0.054 0.057 -0.721 -0.176
Hideki Matsuyama $9,000 $7,900 $16,600 2.296 68.932 0.052 -0.277 0.009 -0.202 -0.467 -0.177
Brooks Koepka $8,100 $7,600 $16,200 1.971 62.442 -0.025 0.085 -0.114 -0.02 -1.027 -0.22
Tony Finau $7,100 $7,200 $14,800 1.534 46.461 -0.467 0.122 -0.241 -0.05 -0.502 -0.227
Jordan Spieth $11,600 $9,300 $19,300 2.694 102.442 -0.169 0.037 -0.224 -0.544 -0.28 -0.236
Patrick Reed $7,500 $6,900 $15,200 1.696 56.877 -0.054 -0.177 -0.349 -0.492 -0.117 -0.238
Russell Henley $6,600 $5,700 $13,200 1.218 22.942 -0.085 -0.101 -0.497 -0.359 -0.198 -0.248

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.