Searching for a Specialist: Valero Texas Open
Welcome back for another specialist search.
We couldn’t quite match our Masters success last week, but three (of 5) specialists going for top 15s is not the worst thing that could happen. We knew Streb and Jones were arriving in poor form and unfortunately they remained in poor form.
The search this week will look at performance on Bermuda Greens, Par 72 Courses, Long Course, Hard Courses and finish up with Specialists that excel on Tough-to-Hit Greens.
Here we go…
Bermuda Greens
This week’s course the JW Marriott TPC San Antonio features Champions Bermuda on the green surfaces.
Since 2010 when this course started to play host, golfer performance on bermuda has the highest correlation with success here at Valero.
The Top 10 Bermudagrass Specialists are:
Matt Every (0.476 sg:bermuda vs. -0.511 sg:total)
Jason Gore (0.531 sg:bermuda vs. 0.017 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (0.602 sg:bermuda vs. 0.149 sg:total)
Luke Donald (0.935 sg:bermuda vs. 0.498 sg:total)
John Rollins (-0.534 sg:bermuda vs. -0.882 sg:total)
John Huh (0.398 sg:bermuda vs. 0.068 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (0.407 sg:bermuda vs. 0.078 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (0.625 sg:bermuda vs. 0.301 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (1.403 sg:bermuda vs. 1.086 sg:total)
John Merrick (-0.13 sg:bermuda vs. -0.444 sg:total)
It’s important to remember these are ranked in order of specialist status, not overall performance. That means Matt Every is way better on bermuda but he starts with an extremely low baseline Strokes Gained.
Shocklingly there aren’t many huge exits here. We lose guys like Patrick Reed, Brandt Snedeker, Branden Grace, and Zach Johnson, but they’re strokes gained on bermuda is all within 0.200 strokes of their baseline. Nothing fade-worthy here.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 63
Par 72 Courses
When par 72 courses come around, we generally know there will be four par 5s on the slate. That means aggressive play is often rewarded.
There are always exception for golfers like Zach Johnson who still rack up the birdies despite laying up on most par 5s. Most weeks this list will be filled with bombers or phenomenal wedge players. That’s exactly what we want this week.
The top 10 remaining Par 72 Specialists:
Andrew Loupe (0.476 sg:par72 vs. -0.064 sg:total)
Luke List (1.173 sg:par72 vs. 0.667 sg:total)
Scott Pinckney (0.347 sg:par72 vs. -0.136 sg:total)
Bronson Burgoon (0.672 sg:par72 vs. 0.279 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (0.66 sg:par72 vs. 0.301 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (0.059 sg:par72 vs. -0.295 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (1.414 sg:par72 vs. 1.086 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (1.06 sg:par72 vs. 0.734 sg:total)
Mark Wilson (-0.132 sg:par72 vs. -0.435 sg:total)
Cameron Beckman (-0.857 sg:par72 vs. -1.149 sg:total)
That’s 2-for-2 for Mickelson and Rodgers.
On the flip side we have two causes for concern. William McGirt and Luke Donald.
Over his last 27 starts on par 72 layouts, Dirt McGirt has finished the week with a positive Strokes Gained on just 10 occasions. On the bright side when he does gain strokes it’s usually a BOOM. Of those 10 starts where he’s gained strokes, he’s gained 4 or more strokes on the field in seven of those. It’s basically top 25 or bust for McGirt.
Donald has a bit more consistency (gaining strokes over the field in 11 of his last 22 starts on par 72s). That’s still a coin flip, not what we like to see. Going even further, he’s gained more than 4 strokes over the field in just three of those starts (14 percent). That chances for a top 20 out of Donald this week are pretty slim, which likely makes him a good fade candidate.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 35
Long Courses
Just like the last angle we looked at (par 72s), this factor generally favors longer hitters, but their are always exceptions with top-notch wedge players and/or top-tier scramblers.
The Top 10 Long Course Specialists that remain are:
Scott Pinckney (0.86 sg:long vs. -0.136 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (0.974 sg:long vs. 0.301 sg:total)
Matt Jones (0.936 sg:long vs. 0.317 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (0.265 sg:long vs. -0.295 sg:total)
Michael Thompson (0.562 sg:long vs. 0.013 sg:total)
John Merrick (0.012 sg:long vs. -0.444 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.101 sg:long vs. 0.665 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (1.473 sg:long vs. 1.086 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (1.451 sg:long vs. 1.07 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (0.906 sg:long vs. 0.589 sg:total)
Phil and Rodgers keep their streak alive, they’ve been featured in all three top-10 lists so far. Whether they end up as specialists in the end or not, they should both be great plays this week.
On the low end of the spectrum we have Rory Sabbatini, Bryce Molder, Ben Crane, Wes Roach, and Francesco Molinari. Molder and Moli are due to a few bad rounds, making them less-than-ideal plays but not complete fades.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 21
Hard Courses
This week’s venue has been getting drenched for weeks leading into this and even more rain is falling to start the week.
That may help it play a bit easier but overall this is one of the hardest stops on TOUR each year and the easiest it’s played in its six-year career is 0.35 strokes OVER-PAR.
This is still going to be a challenging course and we should target golfers that can excel on tough layouts.
Looking at the bottom we can eliminate the following names:
Patrick Rodgers
Scott Pinckney
Cameron Tringale
Mark Wilson
Jhonattan Vegas
Rodgers has a small sample size on hard courses but he’s been horrendous so far in his young career. One or two great weeks on a tough track could really flip that script though, so don’t fade based on that fact alone.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 16
Hard-to-Hit Greens
TPC San Antonio has some of the hardest-to-hit greens on TOUR.
The six-year field average is just 56.3 percent. That’s only 10 Greens in Regulation per round. The PGA TOUR average for 2015 was 65.72 percent, nearly 10 percent higher!
Looking at the bottom we can eliminate the following names:
K.J. Choi
D.A. Points
Matt Jones
Freddie Jacobson
GOLFERS REMAINING: 12
Baseline Performance
This is the time where we cut out the final fat. We are looking for golfers that should exceed expecations, but we don’t want them to be in need of a career-week just to contend.
Using a SG:Total threshold of 0.250 strokes per round, we can remove the following names:
Seung-yul Noh
Michael Thompson
Andrew Loupe
Chesson Hadley
John Merrick
The names above could be valuable in a sprinkling of GPP lineups, but we’ll save the specialist status for the golfers below…
The Specialists
Charley Hoffman
Phil Mickelson
Jason Kokrak
Brooks Koepka
Brendan Steele
Jimmy Walker
Matt Kuchar
Our specialist of the week title goes to Charley Hoffman!
Hoffman is a noted course horse here at TPC San Antonio. He’s yet to finish worse than T13 in six tries.
Overall, we are not getting any favors from DraftKings’ pricing this week. Most weeks we get a specialist or two that fall below $7.5K but Steele checks in at the lowest salary this week ($8.8K).
Looking at it glass half full, we should fully expect this specialist group to cause some serious havoc on the leaderboard this week. I would mix and match these guys to find the combinations that work best for you.
Check out the full Specialist Table for more detailed data. You can sort and filter to your heart’s desire. Don’t want to use the Par 72 angle? Just exclude it. Think the bermuda angle should be heavily weighted? Copy this table and weight them how you see fit. Best of luck in all your matchups this week.