Searching for a Specialist: Valspar Championship

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Welcome to this week’s specialist search.

Last week we saw a few of our specialists plop up on the leaderboard throughout the week (Westwood, Sergio, Kuchar) while Grace hovered around 30th for most of the week. It would have been a much better effort if three of the four specialists didn’t shoot over-par on the final day, but they all managed a T32 or better so I can’t complain much.

This week we head back to the United States for the Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, Florida (Tampa).

The key areas I’m looking at this week are Hard-to-Hit Greens, Bermuda Greens, Hard Courses, and Less-than-Driver Courses.

Here we go …

Hard-to-Hit Greens

The Copperhead Course isn’t extremely long on the scorecard but a few of the holes take driver out of your hand which makes some of the greens very tough to hit.

The first example is the par-4 third hole. Water forced golfers to lay up, with the field averaging around 236 yards off the tee. That leaves you with a 220-yard approach shot. I don’t care how big (or small) the green is, that’s going to be tough to land. It’s no surprise to see the field average just 49% GIR.

Another tough hole is the par-4 sixth hole where the field generally averages right around 50% of greens hit. Extremely tough.

After dissecting some of these holes, it’s no surprise to see that golfers that perform better on tough-to-hit greens have a high correlation to success at the Valspar.

The Top 10 Hard GIR Specialists are:

Matt Every (0.619 sg:hard GIR vs. -0.454 sg:total)
Bryson DeChambeau (1.662 sg:hard GIR vs. 0.628 sg:total)
Brett Stegmaier (1.058 sg:hard GIR vs. 0.338 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (2.238 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.532 sg:total)
Henrik Stenson (3.305 sg:hard GIR vs. 2.608 sg:total)
Alex Cejka (1.365 sg:hard GIR vs. 0.686 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.896 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.263 sg:total)
Michael Thompson (1.053 sg:hard GIR vs. 0.426 sg:total)
John Senden (1.663 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.053 sg:total)
Retief Goosen (1.203 sg:hard GIR vs. 0.646 sg:total)

The first thing I notice about this list is the amount of “birdie makers” on the list. I suppose if you can collect birdies in bunches throughout the round then you are able to drop a shot or two on the really tough holes and will survive.

On the flip side, Scott Stallings has the most starts on Hard GIR courses (since 2014) without a top 25. He is 0-for-16 in terms of finding a top 25.

As for highest sample size, Jim Furyk and Matt Kuchar both have 14 top 25s on these type of tough-to-hit greens, since 2014. Kevin Na is right behind them with 13.

Bermuda Greens

The greens at the Copperhead Course are overseeded bermuda but they typically putt like straight bermuda since we are now kicking off March and the bermuda is reclaiming it’s dominance.

The 10 Bermudagrass Specialists:

Matt Every (0.192 sg:bermuda vs. -0.454 sg:total)
Brett Stegmaier (0.722 sg:bermuda vs. 0.338 sg:total)
Luke Donald (1.523 sg:bermuda vs. 1.162 sg:total)
Ben Martin (1.065 sg:bermuda vs. 0.71 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (1.005 sg:bermuda vs. 0.674 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (1.045 sg:bermuda vs. 0.727 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (0.141 sg:bermuda vs. -0.169 sg:total)
Blayne Barber (0.837 sg:bermuda vs. 0.555 sg:total)
Boo Weekley (0.725 sg:bermuda vs. 0.443 sg:total)
Bryson DeChambeau (0.883 sg:bermuda vs. 0.628 sg:total)

The main nugget we can take away from this list is LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION!

Every, Stegmaier, Donald, and Barber all grew up or currently live in Florida. Martin, Glover, and Boo all grew up in the South AKA Bermuda Country. DeChambeau is a Texas/Cali guy so I’m not sure we see him stay on this list as the sample increases. Malnlnati is right on the fringe of bermuda country, as a Nashville guy.

Overall, we can see that golfers often play better on the types of grasses they grew up on, or currently practice on.

Like every other time we have a bermuda course on tap, this is your friendly reminder to fade Tony Finau. Sure, he’s found top 25s in about 20% of his starts on bermuda but that’s way below of baseline which is over 45% overall.

Hard Courses

Since 2010, the field has averaged 0.77 strokes over-par each round at Innisbrook Resort. That is tough!

Of course, there is usually wind and the forecast is pretty calm right now, but it should still pack a punch regardless of the weather.

We want golfers that are able to overcome the tough layout and grind out a good score.

The Top 10 Hard Course Specialists:

Bryson DeChambeau (1.697 sg:hard vs. 0.628 sg:total)
John Huh (1.635 sg:hard vs. 0.609 sg:total)
Daniel Summerhays (1.981 sg:hard vs. 1.097 sg:total)
Sam Saunders (0.881 sg:hard vs. 0.039 sg:total)
Andrew Loupe (0.786 sg:hard vs. -0.029 sg:total)
David Lingmerth (1.463 sg:hard vs. 0.785 sg:total)
Steve Stricker (2.101 sg:hard vs. 1.556 sg:total)
Kevin Streelman (1.406 sg:hard vs. 0.885 sg:total)
Freddie Jacobson (1.371 sg:hard vs. 0.856 sg:total)
Jonas Blixt (1.09 sg:hard vs. 0.58 sg:total)

We see a lot of good short-game stars on the list above. A crucial par save or even a bogey save from 6 feet can go along way towards maintaining momentum on a tough track.

Since 2014, Matt Kuchar has gained 218 strokes over the field on “Hard Courses” (Field Average of +0.75 or harder). The next closest in the field are Jim Furyk and Henrik Stenson at 174 strokes gained. Talk about dominance by Kooch.

Less-than-Driver Courses

Last week I made the error of assuming the course in Mexico would play as a less-than-driver course due to the tree-line nature of the fairways. Many golfers did club down, but overall, the field average driving distances were still extremely long because of the altitude.

This week, we have some data to support Innisbrook being a less-than-driver course.

There are four holes in particular where golfers are almost always forced to club down.

Par-4 2nd: Average Driving Distance of 252 yards
Par-4 3rd: Average Driving Distance of 236 yards
Par-4 7th: Average Driving Distance of 264 yards
Par-4 12th: Average Driving Distance of 218 yards

With driver taken out of the hands on at least four holes, we generally want to favor conservative golfers, but we don’t want to avoid birdie makers. There is a difference. Don’t make that mistake.

The 10 Less-than-Driver Specialists:

Sam Saunders (0.838 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.039 sg:total)
Kevin Na (2.356 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.699 sg:total)
Matt Every (0.149 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.454 sg:total)
Whee Kim (1.016 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.412 sg:total)
Morgan Hoffmann (1.115 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.531 sg:total)
Bill Haas (2.279 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.71 sg:total)
Ben Martin (1.272 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.71 sg:total)
Luke Donald (1.717 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.162 sg:total)
Jamie Lovemark (1.397 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.851 sg:total)
Jim Furyk (2.695 sg:less-than-driver vs. 2.164 sg:total)

The majority of the list fits our criteria of “conservative” golfers, and I’m not talking politics here. Golfers that excel on less-than-driver courses often do so in the approach area or around/on the greens.

One golfer that is quite good on these less-than-driver courses is Chris Kirk. He’s found top 25s in 12-of-23 less-than-driver tracks since 2014. A 52 percent T25-rate for a $6,900 golfer? Sounds like a potential bargain.

Baseline Performance

In this section, we isolate the golfers that should only be used in GPPs. These golfers are either out of form or their baseline performance is lower than the field average.

Seung-Yul Noh
Scott Brown
John Huh
Blayne Barber
Ricky Barnes
Matt Every

Scott Brown and Blayne Barber are the two appealing GPP options here, in my opinion.

The Specialists

Kevin Na
Daniel Summerhays
Luke Donald
Charley Hoffman
Jason Kokrak
Ryan Moore
Matt Kuchar

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Our specialist this week is Kevin Na.

We have seven golfers who are positive in every angle and also pass the baseline performance filter but Kevin Na is our man this week, as he’s projected to outperform his baseline by 0.381 strokes per round this week. The key angle for Na is the less-than-driver aspect of the course. On other LTD courses, he’s seen his round-by-round performance increase by more than half a stroke. Heyyyyo!

Matt Kuchar barely skimmed through on every angle, but he is still a specialist since he’s positive in all four categories. He also sports the highest baseline of all our specialists this week.

Who has the best course history between our specialists? That would be Luke Donald. The Englishman is 8-for-8 at Innisbrook Resort, including a WIN in 2012, a T4 in 2013 and T4 in 2014.

The Anti-Specialists

Looking for the opposite of our specialists, these golfers have negative numbers in all four angles!

Tony Finau
Jon Curran
Scott Stallings
Steven Bowditch
Jason Bohn
Kyle Reifers
J.J. Henry
Martin Laird
Spencer Levin
Hudson Swafford
Justin Thomas
Stewart Cink
Mark Hubbard
Russell Henley
Patrick Rodgers

Holy buckets, we have a huge list of potential fades this week. The big name in this list is Justin Thomas. He is in such good form right now, that I can’t even pretend to fade him. The course might not be an ideal fit but that is sometimes pointless when you have someone playing as well as he has to open the season.

As for the rest of the list. If you happen to like any of these golfers this week, consider this a reason to re-evaluate them. After all, this is just blind course fit, you don’t have to fade them all. Sometimes a course just suits a golfers eye, or a golfer gets into a groove that silly course fit can be thrown out the window.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),

Form looks at the performance over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro).

Golfer DK SG:Total Form Bermuda LT Driver Hard Courses Hard GIR Specialist Rating
Matt Every $6,600 -0.454 -2.922 0.646 0.604 0.211 1.073 0.633
Bryson DeChambeau $6,400 0.628 -0.354 0.255 0 1.069 1.034 0.59
Sam Saunders $6,400 0.039 0.436 -0.007 0.799 0.842 0.478 0.528
John Huh $6,600 0.609 0.561 0.143 0.093 1.026 0.287 0.387
Kevin Na $8,700 1.699 1.694 0.12 0.657 0.302 0.444 0.381
Daniel Summerhays $7,200 1.097 0.962 0.102 0.007 0.884 0.522 0.379
Luke Donald $7,800 1.162 1.905 0.362 0.555 0.257 0.341 0.378
Brett Stegmaier $6,700 0.338 -0.887 0.384 0.307 0 0.72 0.353
Andrew Loupe $6,900 -0.029 -2.731 -0.04 0.117 0.815 0.438 0.333
Scott Brown $6,900 0.732 1.216 0.094 0.502 0.105 0.504 0.301
Whee Kim $6,500 0.412 0.449 0.159 0.604 0 0.44 0.3
Blayne Barber $6,500 0.555 -0.091 0.283 0.49 0.139 0.289 0.3
Daniel Berger $10,100 1.532 1.655 0.137 -0.049 0.389 0.706 0.296
Charley Hoffman $7,400 1.263 1.282 0.197 0.156 0.185 0.633 0.293
John Senden $7,000 1.053 -0.371 -0.222 0.256 0.447 0.61 0.273
Steve Stricker $7,400 1.556 1.715 -0.134 0.13 0.545 0.495 0.259
Jason Kokrak $7,600 1.152 1.517 0.093 0.082 0.51 0.321 0.251
Seung-Yul Noh $7,500 0.734 1.121 0.174 0.104 0.327 0.398 0.251
Bill Haas $9,200 1.71 2.311 0.066 0.569 -0.06 0.326 0.225
Bubba Watson $8,300 2.136 0.266 0.067 0 0.361 0.406 0.209
Ryan Moore $9,000 1.548 1.399 0.165 0.176 0.411 0.079 0.208
Ben Martin $6,800 0.71 -0.204 0.356 0.563 -0.036 -0.145 0.184
Ken Duke $6,900 0.031 0.31 0.089 -0.161 0.36 0.442 0.182
Henrik Stenson $11,700 2.608 3.74 -0.43 0.153 0.232 0.697 0.163
Jamie Lovemark $7,000 0.851 0.829 0.07 0.546 -0.02 0.041 0.159
Willy Wilcox $6,800 0.718 -4.076 -0.102 0.506 0.105 0.085 0.148
Ricky Barnes $6,500 0.437 -0.145 0.012 0.227 0.108 0.233 0.145
Retief Goosen $6,600 0.646 -2.148 -0.033 -0.169 0.216 0.557 0.143
Patton Kizzire $6,700 0.738 0.114 0.096 0.323 0.191 -0.048 0.141
David Lingmerth $6,800 0.785 1.29 0.024 -0.169 0.678 0.025 0.14
Freddie Jacobson $7,100 0.856 -3.3 0.151 -0.136 0.515 -0.048 0.12
Greg Chalmers $6,500 -0.13 -0.003 0.165 0.071 0.34 -0.103 0.118
Ryo Ishikawa $7,000 0.444 0.932 0.108 0.382 0 -0.025 0.116
Sung Kang $7,000 0.843 1.196 -0.317 -0.061 0.509 0.322 0.113
Vijay Singh $6,900 0.555 -0.804 -0.078 0.123 0.369 0.026 0.11
Michael Thompson $6,900 0.426 0.621 0.061 -0.339 0.086 0.627 0.109
Ian Poulter $6,500 1.081 1.476 0.065 0.089 0.297 -0.024 0.107
Jim Furyk $7,200 2.164 0.777 -0.037 0.53 -0.194 0.121 0.105
Soren Kjeldsen $6,800 1.088 0.286 0 0 0.417 0 0.104
Bryce Molder $6,700 0.727 0.241 0.318 0.257 -0.349 0.189 0.104
Billy Horschel $7,900 1.376 1.196 0.126 -0.056 0.187 0.146 0.101
Martin Flores $6,500 0.674 0.869 0.121 -0.077 0 0.303 0.087
Peter Malnati $6,400 -0.169 0.116 0.31 0.348 0 -0.329 0.082
Jonas Blixt $6,900 0.58 0.796 -0.231 -0.26 0.51 0.301 0.08
Sean O’Hair $8,200 0.794 1.551 0.218 0.238 0.146 -0.289 0.078
Jason Dufner $7,900 1.368 1.653 0.192 0.261 -0.081 -0.063 0.077
Morgan Hoffmann $7,200 0.531 0.56 0.202 0.584 0.002 -0.501 0.072
Chris Kirk $6,900 1.339 1.38 0.16 0.319 -0.179 -0.017 0.071
Chad Campbell $6,700 0.889 0.556 -0.108 0.009 0.214 0.167 0.071
K.J. Choi $7,300 0.694 0.282 0.162 -0.08 0.016 0.183 0.07
Matt Kuchar $10,200 2.072 2.097 0.037 0.003 0.197 0.016 0.063
Charl Schwartzel $8,800 1.631 -0.059 -0.273 -0.271 0.448 0.33 0.058
George McNeill $7,100 0.917 0 0.05 0.033 -0.178 0.292 0.049
Patrick Reed $9,700 1.624 1.213 -0.122 -0.069 -0.034 0.412 0.047
Harold Varner III $ – 0.667 -0.063 -0.075 0.164 0.468 -0.426 0.033
Robert Garrigus $6,800 0.449 1.07 -0.202 -0.118 0.487 -0.04 0.032
Russell Knox $7,800 1.496 0.224 -0.029 -0.024 0.03 0.102 0.02
Nick Watney $7,100 0.968 1.644 -0.301 -0.037 0.011 0.402 0.019
Smylie Kaufman $7,100 0.682 -0.534 0.091 -0.477 0.393 0 0.002
J.J. Spaun $7,200 0.99 1.813 0 0 0 0 0
Richy Werenski $6,500 0.585 1.467 0 0 0 0 0
Wesley Bryan $7,500 1.105 1.367 0 0 0 0 0
J.T. Poston $7,000 0.705 1.124 0 0 0 0 0
Seamus Power $7,300 1.012 1.27 0 0 0 0 0
Beau Hossler $6,900 0.698 0.824 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Blaum $7,000 0.938 0.326 0 0 0 0 0
C.T. Pan $6,600 0.706 0.492 0 0 0 0 0
Grayson Murray $7,200 0.537 0.528 0 0 0 0 0
Lee McCoy $7,300 -0.035 0 0 0 0 0 0
Patrick Cantlay $7,000 -0.379 1.203 0 0 0 0 0
Cody Gribble $7,200 0.882 -0.317 0 0 0 0 0
Dominic Bozzelli $6,400 -0.047 0.251 0 0 0 0 0
Jimmy Stanger $6,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Zach Wright $6,400 -1.768 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rod Perry $6,400 -2.534 0 0 0 0 0 0
James Hahn $6,600 0.702 0.892 -0.152 -0.434 0.176 0.41 0
Brian Stuard $7,000 0.582 1.051 0.202 0.117 -0.068 -0.258 -0.001
Alex Cejka $6,400 0.686 -0.449 -0.114 -0.472 -0.118 0.679 -0.006
Cameron Tringale $6,700 0.964 0.114 -0.067 0.372 -0.476 0.113 -0.014
Troy Merritt $6,600 0.399 0.155 0.075 0.362 -0.454 -0.093 -0.028
Graham DeLaet $8,400 1.216 2.059 0.049 0.284 -0.526 0.038 -0.039
Bud Cauley $6,500 0.908 1.399 -0.244 0.077 0 0 -0.042
Nick Taylor $7,000 0.439 1.045 -0.073 -0.096 0 0 -0.042
Boo Weekley $6,600 0.443 0.308 0.282 -0.19 -0.17 -0.142 -0.055
Gary Woodland $8,900 1.57 2.44 0.183 -0.231 -0.205 -0.015 -0.067
Graeme Mcdowell $8,100 1.264 1.57 -0.029 0.193 -0.17 -0.276 -0.071
Luke List $7,100 1.229 1.052 0.113 -0.146 0 -0.266 -0.075
Ollie Schniederjans $7,100 0.914 2.052 -0.313 0 0 0 -0.078
David Hearn $7,100 0.91 0.633 -0.074 0.351 -0.251 -0.358 -0.083
Scott Piercy $6,900 1.121 0.757 -0.147 0.007 0.503 -0.702 -0.085
Kyle Stanley $7,000 0.418 1.732 -0.172 0.193 -0.063 -0.301 -0.086
Derek Fathauer $7,100 0.453 -0.263 -0.513 -0.18 0.253 0.095 -0.086
Harris English $7,500 1.357 0.959 0.05 -0.393 0.061 -0.096 -0.095
Lucas Glover $6,900 0.674 1.8 0.331 0.071 -0.293 -0.488 -0.095
Shawn Stefani $7,100 0.876 0.872 -0.024 -0.255 0.119 -0.238 -0.1
Ernie Els $6,800 0.526 0.556 -0.418 0.072 -0.103 -0.007 -0.114
Si Woo Kim $7,300 0.791 -2.114 0.154 -0.246 0 -0.396 -0.122
Kelly Kraft $6,700 0.411 1.353 -0.684 0.194 0 0 -0.122
Carl Pettersson $6,800 0.22 -0.896 0.014 0.076 -0.371 -0.213 -0.123
Chad Collins $6,700 0.248 0.064 0.08 -0.339 0.048 -0.319 -0.133
Charles Howell III $9,400 1.302 2.567 0.038 -0.049 -0.315 -0.219 -0.136
Aaron Baddeley $6,500 0.648 0.04 -0.152 -0.196 0.075 -0.281 -0.138
Trey Mullinax $7,300 0.695 1.134 -0.565 0 0 0 -0.141
Hunter Mahan $7,000 0.684 -0.022 -0.467 -0.594 0.355 0.134 -0.143
Michael Kim $7,100 0.655 1.341 0.014 -0.131 -0.095 -0.402 -0.153
Chez Reavie $7,000 0.985 1.477 -0.271 -1.023 0.236 0.439 -0.155
Keegan Bradley $6,900 1.486 1.193 -0.296 -0.171 -0.221 0.059 -0.157
Geoff Ogilvy $6,700 0.45 1.065 -0.196 -0.552 -0.13 0.231 -0.162
Tyrone Van Aswegen $6,600 0.222 0.017 -0.496 -0.427 0.462 -0.201 -0.166
Ben Crane $6,500 0.447 0.209 -0.084 -0.419 -0.393 0.199 -0.174
Kevin Streelman $7,400 0.885 0.461 -0.109 -0.793 0.521 -0.345 -0.182
Byeong Hun An $7,400 1.08 1.747 0 0 -0.512 -0.224 -0.184
Brian Harman $7,200 1.027 2.055 -0.09 -0.269 -0.398 0.005 -0.188
Patrick Rodgers $8,000 0.785 0.843 -0.16 -0.227 -0.394 -0.011 -0.198
Rod Pampling $6,400 0.113 -0.532 -0.191 -0.601 0 0 -0.198
Billy Hurley III $ – 0.674 0.451 -0.384 -0.533 0.094 -0.092 -0.229
Russell Henley $7,700 1.09 1.564 -0.032 -0.01 -0.343 -0.569 -0.238
Adam Hadwin $6,800 1.078 2.258 -0.191 -0.288 -0.526 0.031 -0.243
Cameron Smith $6,600 0.746 1.127 -0.328 0.455 -0.172 -0.928 -0.243
Mark Hubbard $6,600 0.15 -0.366 -0.038 -0.177 -0.378 -0.469 -0.265
Jim Herman $6,800 0.627 1.2 -0.154 0.018 -0.096 -0.834 -0.267
Danny Lee $6,700 0.941 -0.547 -0.119 0.047 -0.688 -0.315 -0.269
Stewart Cink $7,600 1.007 1.615 -0.169 -0.303 -0.215 -0.398 -0.271
Brian Gay $6,800 -0.136 0.823 -0.086 -0.716 0 -0.359 -0.29
Justin Thomas $11,900 1.723 3.197 -0.097 -0.251 -0.322 -0.523 -0.298
Hudson Swafford $6,700 0.733 1.416 -0.136 -0.528 -0.034 -0.507 -0.301
Spencer Levin $6,800 0.445 -1.144 -0.197 -0.176 -0.565 -0.294 -0.308
Martin Laird $7,400 1.008 2.282 -0.219 -0.608 -0.237 -0.181 -0.311
Webb Simpson $8,500 1.391 1.915 0.187 -0.58 -0.431 -0.45 -0.319
Robert Streb $6,500 1.156 1.076 0.009 -0.392 -0.433 -0.471 -0.322
Steve Marino $6,800 0.114 -0.475 -0.764 -0.314 0 -0.231 -0.327
Johnson Wagner $6,400 0.527 -0.176 -0.421 0.021 -0.432 -0.498 -0.333
J.J. Henry $6,700 -0.016 -0.422 -0.316 -0.168 -0.798 -0.059 -0.335
Kyle Reifers $6,500 0.7 -0.571 -0.75 -0.283 -0.154 -0.219 -0.352
Jason Bohn $6,400 0.778 -0.724 -0.269 -0.379 -0.407 -0.356 -0.353
Zac Blair $6,400 0.641 1.103 0.047 -0.223 -0.733 -0.639 -0.387
Steven Bowditch $6,600 -0.38 -1.548 -0.208 -0.317 -0.939 -0.092 -0.389
Scott Stallings $6,900 0.316 2.258 -0.17 -0.42 -0.594 -0.42 -0.401
Jon Curran $6,600 0.605 0.326 -0.18 -0.38 -0.476 -0.581 -0.405
Tony Finau $7,700 1.336 1.894 -0.745 -0.996 -0.105 -0.349 -0.549

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.