Searching for a Specialist: Volvo China Open
Welcome to a rare European Tour specialist search.
Like we do weekly with the PGA TOUR, the goal of this article is to look for golfers with a good course fit. We do this be looking at specific angles from week-to-week to see how golfers have performed in similar situations in the past.
For this week’s Volvo China Open we are going to look at performance in Asia, performance on Par 72 Courses, and finish up with performance on Bentgrass Greens.
If you’re wondering why some of the Strokes Gained metrics are inflated on the Euro side, it’s because I adjust them to the average European Tour field. Gaining 3 adjusted strokes over the tour average in a Euro Tour event is kind of the same as gaining 1.75 strokes in a PGA TOUR event.
Let’s go …
Performance in Asia
The unique thing about the European Tour is the travel. There are only a handful of PGA TOUR events each year that are played outside the United States, but the Euro Tour travels from week-to-week.
This week they land in China for a second straight week. Some golfers adjust well to the travel, climate, culture, etc. We want to find those golfers…
The Top 10 Asian Continent Specialists are:
Lucas Bjerregaard (3.241 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.867 sg:total)
Matteo Manassero (2.662 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.429 sg:total)
Alexander Levy (3.518 sg:Asian Continent vs. 2.374 sg:total)
Nathan Holman (2.275 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.276 sg:total)
SSP Chawrasia (2.136 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.286 sg:total)
Soomin Lee (2.391 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.566 sg:total)
Scott Hend (2.642 sg:Asian Continent vs. 1.872 sg:total)
Richie Ramsay (2.993 sg:Asian Continent vs. 2.257 sg:total)
Fabrizio Zanotti (2.991 sg:Asian Continent vs. 2.266 sg:total)
Richard Bland (3.205 sg:Asian Continent vs. 2.484 sg:total)
If we dive into the career of Bjerregaard we notice he has three podium finishes in Asia, and they all happen to be in China as well. That is very enticing.
The surprising name on the opposite side is Jeunghung Wang. You would think a Korean would fare well in Asia but two of his three wins have come in Africa with the third coming in the Middle East.
Par 72 Courses
With a par 72 on the slate, we know golfers that can score on the par 5s will be at a big advantage.
Looking at past performance on par 72 layouts is a good find to find what golfers prefer a four-pack of par 5s.
The 10 Par 72 Specialists:
Jeunghun Wang (3.063 sg:par72 vs. 2.384 sg:total)
Alexander Bjork (3.495 sg:par72 vs. 3.001 sg:total)
Bernd Ritthammer (2.055 sg:par72 vs. 1.612 sg:total)
Alexander Knappe (1.748 sg:par72 vs. 1.317 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (2.803 sg:par72 vs. 2.385 sg:total)
Jordan Smith (3.242 sg:par72 vs. 2.853 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (2.352 sg:par72 vs. 1.976 sg:total)
Ashun Wu (2.451 sg:par72 vs. 2.1 sg:total)
Chris Wood (3.398 sg:par72 vs. 3.047 sg:total)
Gary Stal (1.752 sg:par72 vs. 1.404 sg:total)
From last to first, Jeunghun Wang is now the standout in our second angle. Wang has gained at least 2 strokes over the field in 27-of-61 rounds played on par 72 courses (44%). That is the sixth-best ratio in the field behind only Alexander Bjork, Jordan Smith, Chris Wood, Bernd Wiesberger, and Dylan Frittelli.
On the other side of the swing, Soomin Lee has lost 2+ strokes to the field in 18-of-61 rounds played on par 72s (30%). Ouch.
Bentgrass Greens
The European Tour sees a fair amount of bentgrass and/or poa annua green surfaces. This week’s course uses creeping bentgrass on the greens.
The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists:
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (2.769 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.385 sg:total)
Rikard Karlberg (2.573 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.196 sg:total)
Romain Wattel (2.305 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.933 sg:total)
Robert Karlsson (1.768 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.407 sg:total)
Raphael Jacquelin (2.157 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.864 sg:total)
Callum Shinkwin (2.01 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.72 sg:total)
Fabrizio Zanotti (2.541 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.266 sg:total)
Graeme Storm (2.063 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.789 sg:total)
Mikko Korhonen (2.584 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.315 sg:total)
David Howell (2.487 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.225 sg:total)
Aphibarnrat is known to be a volatile golfer but his rate of disaster is basically cut in half when he heads to a course with bentgrass greens.
There are four golfers that lose more than half-a-stroke versus there baseline when they head to bentgrass greens: Ryan Fox, Carlos Pigem, Jeunghun Wang, and Andrew Dodt. I wouldn’t completely cross them off based on that fact alone, but they are fighting an uphill battle.
Baseline Performance
The goal of this search is to find some golfers with a good course fit. At the same time, we don’t want to rely on golfers that need the week of their lives just to crack the top 25.
The following golfers are struggling with their current form, making them GPP-only options despite their good course fit.
GPP-Only Options:
Hao Tong Li
Marcel Siem
Felipe Aguilar HAS WITHDRAWN BEFORE THE EVENT
Kristoffer Broberg HAS WITHDRAWN BEFORE THE EVENT
If you’ve already done some homework this week, you may remember that Hao Tong Li won this event last year, Aguilar finished 2nd, and Siem finished in a share of third place.
The Specialists
Alexander Levy
Julien Quesne
Fabrizio Zanotti
Richie Ramsay
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Romain Wattel
Stephen Gallacher
Benjamin Hebert
Gregory Bourdy
Our specialist this week is Alexander Levy!
The Frenchman has feasted in Asia over his career. He won this event in 2014 (different course) and also finished T3 at Topwin Golf & CC last year.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat is a very interesting specialist to watch. He didn’t play here last year so he brings no course history with him, but his ability to drop birdies in bunches does make him an appealing option on DraftKings.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2015),
Form looks at the performance over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro).
For this week I excluded any golfers that didn’t have any rounds on the European Tour since 2015.
| Golfer | DK | SG:Total | Form | Par 72 | Asia | Bentgrass | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Manassero | $6,500 | 1.39 | 1.66 | 0.3 | 1.23 | -0.09 | 0.48 |
| Alexander Levy | $9,400 | 2.33 | 1.526 | 0.02 | 1.14 | 0.12 | 0.43 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | $7,400 | 1.86 | 1.161 | -0.01 | 1.37 | -0.09 | 0.42 |
| Julien Quesne | $6,500 | 2.23 | 0.866 | 0.21 | 0.7 | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| Fabrizio Zanotti | $9,900 | 2.21 | 2.132 | 0.03 | 0.72 | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| Richie Ramsay | $7,700 | 2.24 | 1.332 | 0.16 | 0.74 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| Hao Tong Li | $9,100 | 2.74 | 0.442 | 0.17 | 0.6 | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $9,200 | 2.36 | 1.505 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| Peter Uihlein | $8,300 | 2.47 | 3.508 | 0.29 | 0.7 | -0.17 | 0.27 |
| Romain Wattel | $7,000 | 1.92 | 1.024 | 0.11 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| Thongchai Jaidee | $8,700 | 3.15 | 1.289 | -0.08 | 0.59 | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Richard Bland | $7,000 | 2.5 | 0.915 | -0.18 | 0.72 | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| Nathan Holman | $6,500 | 1.31 | -0.099 | 0.07 | 1 | -0.35 | 0.24 |
| Gregory Havret | $6,700 | 1.84 | 1.407 | 0.18 | 0.57 | -0.07 | 0.23 |
| Bernd Ritthammer | $6,900 | 1.52 | 1.377 | 0.44 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Scott Hend | $7,800 | 1.89 | -0.227 | 0.07 | 0.77 | -0.2 | 0.21 |
| SSP Chawrasia | $6,900 | 1.29 | 1.932 | 0.25 | 0.85 | -0.48 | 0.21 |
| Felipe Aguilar | $6,300 | 1.8 | -0.193 | 0.3 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Callum Shinkwin | $6,000 | 1.8 | 0.026 | 0.26 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| Ross Fisher | $11,800 | 2.8 | 3.172 | 0.12 | 0.47 | -0.09 | 0.17 |
| Alexander Bjork | $7,300 | 3.1 | 1.657 | 0.49 | 0 | -0.01 | 0.16 |
| Stephen Gallacher | $6,800 | 1.94 | 1.145 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Joakim Lagergren | $6,200 | 1.92 | 0.213 | 0.23 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| Alexander Knappe | $5,900 | 1.54 | 0.746 | 0.43 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 |
| Marcel Siem | $6,200 | 1.02 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.2 | 0.14 |
| Benjamin Hebert | $6,800 | 2.07 | 1.137 | 0.1 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| Chris Wood | $7,500 | 3.05 | 0.859 | 0.35 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Gregory Bourdy | $8,500 | 2.51 | 1.637 | 0.2 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Jason Scrivener | $6,900 | 1.86 | 0.799 | -0.07 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| David Howell | $6,400 | 2.27 | 0.143 | 0.08 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| Jordan Smith | $10,200 | 2.74 | 1.992 | 0.39 | 0 | -0.05 | 0.11 |
| Jorge Campillo | $6,800 | 2.16 | 1.519 | 0.11 | 0.25 | -0.03 | 0.11 |
| Rikard Karlberg | $6,200 | 2.21 | 0.713 | 0.12 | -0.17 | 0.38 | 0.11 |
| Jaco Van Zyl | $6,800 | 2.56 | 0.712 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Robert Karlsson | $6,300 | 1.49 | -0.331 | -0.04 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.11 |
| James Morrison | $7,300 | 2.25 | 2.109 | -0.01 | 0.13 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Lee Slattery | $6,800 | 1.62 | 0.923 | -0.05 | 0.27 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Ashun Wu | $6,700 | 2.13 | 0.678 | 0.35 | 0 | -0.05 | 0.1 |
| Dylan Frittelli | $8,100 | 1.99 | 2.199 | 0.24 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.1 |
| Jeev Milkha Singh | $6,400 | 0.56 | -1.338 | 0 | 0.37 | -0.09 | 0.1 |
| Peter Hanson | $7,700 | 2.33 | 0.86 | 0.22 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Sam Brazel | $6,800 | 1.67 | 0.66 | -0.13 | 0.35 | 0 | 0.07 |
| Lasse Jensen | $6,800 | 1.57 | 1.351 | 0.04 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| Thomas Detry | $7,500 | 2.39 | 0.951 | 0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| Kristoffer Broberg | $6,400 | 1.96 | -0.204 | 0.06 | 0.1 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Gary Stal | $5,800 | 1.42 | 0.039 | 0.35 | 0.03 | -0.17 | 0.07 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $9,700 | 1.92 | 0.952 | 0.38 | 0 | -0.21 | 0.06 |
| Gaganjeet Bhullar | $6,900 | 1.11 | 0.504 | -0.01 | 0.17 | 0 | 0.05 |
| Nino Bertasio | $6,700 | 1.78 | 0.321 | -0.05 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.05 |
| Mikko Korhonen | $7,000 | 2.33 | 1.596 | -0.08 | -0.05 | 0.27 | 0.05 |
| Maximilian Kieffer | $7,200 | 2.32 | 0.899 | 0.12 | -0.04 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Pablo Larrazabal | $8,600 | 2.32 | 1.273 | 0.1 | 0.17 | -0.15 | 0.04 |
| David Lipsky | $8,900 | 2.2 | 1.281 | -0.15 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Bradley Dredge | $7,600 | 2.74 | 0.212 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Y.E. Yang | $5,600 | 1.71 | -0.75 | 0.2 | 0 | -0.1 | 0.03 |
| Ricardo Gouveia | $7,100 | 2.02 | 1.036 | -0.06 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| Romain Langasque | $7,200 | 2.74 | 1.387 | -0.02 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| Robert Rock | $6,700 | 2.15 | 0.735 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Johan Carlsson | $5,800 | 1.71 | -0.079 | 0.28 | -0.09 | -0.13 | 0.02 |
| Darren Fichardt | $6,700 | 1.61 | 0.99 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| Paul Peterson | $6,000 | 1.59 | 1.094 | -0.06 | 0.43 | -0.31 | 0.02 |
| Nacho Elvira | $7,400 | 1.65 | 1.011 | 0.22 | 0.18 | -0.35 | 0.02 |
| Graeme Storm | $6,800 | 1.8 | 1.109 | 0.27 | -0.51 | 0.27 | 0.01 |
| Andrew Dodt | $6,400 | 1.53 | 0.789 | 0.1 | 0.61 | -0.67 | 0.01 |
| Carlos Pigem | $6,800 | 1.81 | 1.701 | -0.04 | 0.56 | -0.52 | 0 |
| Phachara Khongwatmai | $6,900 | 0.46 | -0.802 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Bjorn | $6,700 | 1.52 | -0.016 | 0.08 | 0 | -0.09 | 0 |
| Adrian Otaegui | $5,900 | 1.65 | 0.664 | -0.18 | 0.1 | 0.06 | -0.01 |
| Brandon Stone | $8,000 | 2.48 | 1.08 | 0.03 | 0 | -0.05 | -0.01 |
| Edoardo Molinari | $7,100 | 1.33 | 1.407 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.07 | -0.01 |
| Matthew Southgate | $6,100 | 1.57 | 1.215 | -0.21 | 0 | 0.13 | -0.03 |
| Dean Burmester | $7,800 | 2.68 | 1.989 | -0.15 | 0 | 0.06 | -0.03 |
| Pep Angles | $6,400 | 1.99 | 0.787 | 0 | 0 | -0.09 | -0.03 |
| Mikko Ilonen | $6,300 | 1.9 | 1.026 | -0.13 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.04 |
| Sam Walker | $6,500 | 0.94 | 0.427 | 0.1 | 0 | -0.23 | -0.04 |
| Mike Lorenzo-Vera | $7,600 | 2.4 | 0.789 | 0.15 | 0 | -0.29 | -0.05 |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | $7,300 | 2.27 | 0.545 | 0.26 | -0.58 | 0.15 | -0.06 |
| David Drysdale | $6,900 | 1.87 | 1.309 | 0.08 | -0.39 | 0.12 | -0.06 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | $12,000 | 3.63 | 2.507 | -0.1 | 0 | -0.1 | -0.07 |
| Soomin Lee | $6,700 | 1.62 | 0.675 | -0.58 | 0.83 | -0.45 | -0.07 |
| Justin Walters | $6,900 | 1.61 | 0.789 | -0.43 | 0 | 0.21 | -0.07 |
| Haydn Porteous | $6,700 | 0.7 | 1.389 | 0.1 | 0 | -0.32 | -0.07 |
| Anthony Wall | $6,800 | 2.2 | 1.109 | -0.11 | -0.22 | 0.08 | -0.08 |
| Joost Luiten | $10,400 | 2.92 | 2.194 | -0.19 | 0.05 | -0.11 | -0.08 |
| Alejandro Canizares | $7,400 | 2.48 | 1.082 | 0.11 | -0.25 | -0.13 | -0.09 |
| Renato Paratore | $6,300 | 1.53 | 0.994 | 0.05 | -0.39 | 0.03 | -0.1 |
| Brett Rumford | $7,100 | 1.45 | 0.839 | 0 | 0 | -0.31 | -0.1 |
| Ryan Fox | $7,200 | 1.26 | 0.843 | 0.18 | 0 | -0.51 | -0.11 |
| George Coetzee | $8,200 | 2.32 | 2.003 | -0.13 | 0 | -0.34 | -0.16 |
| Chris Paisley | $6,900 | 1.77 | 0.549 | 0.09 | -0.75 | 0.1 | -0.19 |
| Raphael Jacquelin | $6,900 | 1.89 | 0.24 | -0.15 | -0.73 | 0.29 | -0.2 |
| Jeunghun Wang | $7,900 | 2.42 | 0.065 | 0.68 | -0.78 | -0.63 | -0.24 |