Searching for a Specialist: Waste Management Open
The search for a specialist never sleeps, so we are back. We are out of California, but the search continues.
In a week that was filled with carnage, with a ton of high-priced options missing the cut, our list of specialists managed to get 6-of-7 through, with Noh being our only casualty. Of course, Reed went on to WD after the third round and Michael Thompson shot 78-78 over the weekend, but a great week regardless.
For our search this week we head to the Greatest Show on Grass in Scottsdale, Arizona. We will be looking at performance on driver courses, bermudagrass greens, and finish up with easy greens to hit.
I’ve also included par 71 performance in the spreadsheet at the bottom, but this is one of my least favorite angles due to the nature of in-between-ness it brings. So, I will not be using it in our search for a specialist. While par 70 and par 72 performance is some of my favorite data to look at, I try to avoid using par 71 stats when possible.
Driver Courses
We haven’t used this angle much at all in the past, but its one I really like this week in Scottsdale. Its defined by performance on any course where the field averages over 285 yards off the tee. Guys with distance or extreme accuracy are going to gain a nice edge this week with that driver.
The top 10 driver course specialists are:
Brandt Snedeker (1.495 sg:long driving vs. 0.795 sg:total)
Hudson Swafford (0.861 sg:long driving vs. 0.198 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (0.293 sg:long driving vs. -0.316 sg:total)
Colt Knost (0.73 sg:long driving vs. 0.221 sg:total)
Billy Horschel (1.069 sg:long driving vs. 0.566 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (0.122 sg:long driving vs. -0.367 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (1.536 sg:long driving vs. 1.05 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (1.583 sg:long driving vs. 1.1 sg:total)
Tyrone Van Aswegen (0.263 sg:long driving vs. -0.216 sg:total)
We lose quite a few studs here with our first cut. That includes Jason Dufner, Hunter Mahan, Phil Mickelson, Hideki Matsuyama, Brendan Steele.
None of these golfers are so bad on driver courses that they need to be faded, they just aren’t the specialist we are looking for at TPC Scottsdale. It’s important to remind everyone that specialist does not equal course horse, which explains why many of these exclusions actually play quite well here in Scottsdale but still get eliminated in our search.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 53
Bermuda Greens
The course we are looking at features TifDwarf Bermudagrass. They are overseeded with bentgrass, so its not pure bermuda. If you have some time on your hands, do a search on golf course grass types in Arizona and how they change throughout the year. Pretty interesting stuff, if you’re into that sorta thing.
Of the 53 golfers remaining these are the top 10 bermuda specialists remaining:
Fabian Gomez (0.887 sg:bermuda vs. 0.089 sg:total)
Ben Martin (0.926 sg:bermuda vs. 0.309 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (1.035 sg:bermuda vs. 0.431 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (1.155 sg:bermuda vs. 0.677 sg:total)
Webb Simpson (1.153 sg:bermuda vs. 0.735 sg:total)
Boo Weekley (0.262 sg:bermuda vs. -0.001 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (0.779 sg:bermuda vs. 0.536 sg:total)
Kevin Streelman (0.368 sg:bermuda vs. 0.167 sg:total)
David Lingmerth (0.279 sg:bermuda vs. 0.091 sg:total)
Jamie Lovemark (0.41 sg:bermuda vs. 0.235 sg:total)
This is where it gets tricky due to the nature of the mixed greens. While the greens are bermuda, and bermuda performance correlates most highly with past WMPO success, there is still that overseeding part of the equation that muddies the water. So, I will remove these golfers from our specialist search, we can’t completely fade these anti-bermuda specialists like some weeks.
That means Tony Finau not a complete fade this week, despite his historically poor bermuda track record. Maybe lighten your load on Finau, but I think he’s still in play for GPPs.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 24
Easy GIR Courses
While the overall difficulty of this course fluctuates from year to year, its always on the easier side of the spectrum. The fairways are not always easy to hit but he ease of hitting the greens in regulation is generally pretty high.
I would chalk this up to the tournament playing into their self-proclaimed title of Greatest Show on Grass. You can’t have these golfers getting too frustrated as this event is more about the fun, party atmosphere. Not about testing the golfers with major championship course setups.
Of our remaining 24 golfers, there are six golfers that standout above the rest in terms of Easy GIR performance:
Russell Henley (0.99 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.159 sg:total)
Fabian Gomez (0.711 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.089 sg:total)
Ben Martin (0.855 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.309 sg:total)
Webb Simpson (1.277 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.735 sg:total)
Robert Streb (1.168 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.711 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (1.474 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.05 sg:total)
Unlike the last few weeks where we see a golfer get mentioned in all three lists, we don’t have that player this week. The 2-of-3 club would include Brooks Koepka, Ben Martin, Webb Simpson, and Fabian Gomez.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 16
Baseline Performance
We’re down to 16 potential specialists now but let’s narrow that down even further. If we want our golfers to gain at least a stroke over the field this week, then they must have a baseline Strokes Gained:Total of 0.250 or higher.
Using this criteria, we can eliminate Jeff Overton, Kevin Streelman, Russell Henley, David Lingmerth, Fabian Gomez, Chez Reavie, Boo Weekley, Steve Wheatcroft, and Justin Leonard.
Those names are sorted from highest baseline SGT to lowest, so if you want to take a chance on one of them, the guys at the beginning will be your best options while Wheatcroft and Leonard are still longshots, despite their specialist status.
The Specialists
Webb Simpson
Ben Martin
Brooks Koepka
Patrick Rodgers
Robert Streb
Gary Woodland
David Hearn
Ladies and gentlemen, we have our selves a specialist! Mister Webb Simpson, come on down!
Webb loves hitting driver, likes putting on bermuda, and likes his greens to be of the easy-to-hit variety.
With top 10s in each of his past three visits, I think the performance backs up his specialist tag.
Check out the full Specialist Table for more detailed data. You can sort and filter to your heart’s desire. Best of luck in all your matchups this week.