Searching for a Specialist: Waste Management Phoenix Open

Our specialist search hit the first snag of 2019 last week as both missed the cut.

Instead of chalking it up to bad luck, I wanted to learn from the experience and find a way to keep improving this article. As a result, I will be putting a larger weight on performance over the last year. Both Hudson Swafford and Harris English passed the test when it came to long-term performance, but they were both well off the radar if we just looked at the last year of results. I will keep the 5-year results in the table at the bottom because that is important when looking for long-term course fit elements, but I will also include a 1-year performance index. It can be found in the table at the bottom with the label of L52 Form.

Now let’s rebound as we turn our attention toward TPC Scottsdale and the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

This week we look at Performance on Overseeded Bermuda, Easy-to-Hit Greens, Driver-Heavy Courses, West Coast Events, and Performance in the Winter.

Here we go…

Performance on Overseeded Bermuda

TPC Scottsdale has a base of bermuda turf, but it gets overseeded in early October since the cold winter nights don’t allow the bermuda to really grow.

While the bermuda is dormant, we get a melting pot of grasses throughout the property. These grasses include ryegrass, velvet bentgrass, and fine fescue.

The 10 Overseeded Bermuda Specialists:

Andrew Landry (1.945 sg:overseeded vs. 0.691 sg:total)
Sean O’Hair (1.78 sg:overseeded vs. 0.917 sg:total)
Vaughn Taylor (1.856 sg:overseeded vs. 1.004 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (2.268 sg:overseeded vs. 1.495 sg:total)
Trey Mullinax (1.479 sg:overseeded vs. 0.735 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (2.157 sg:overseeded vs. 1.418 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (2.044 sg:overseeded vs. 1.422 sg:total)
Jim Herman (1.251 sg:overseeded vs. 0.631 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.922 sg:overseeded vs. 2.305 sg:total)
John Huh (1.394 sg:overseeded vs. 0.8 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on Overseeded Bermuda since 2014 are Phil Mickelson, Adam Hadwin, Sean O’Hair, Daniel Berger, and Brendan Steele.

“we’re in kind of an over-seeded period here, so we are almost dealing with grass you would see up north. We are dealing with the rye and overseed, which I like playing on, as long as they are dry conditions, you can get it nice and firm and fast, which is fun to play on.” That was a quote from Jim Furyk when he was playing the Valspar in 2013. He compares overseeded grasses to conditions your’d see in the North.

If you make your base in South Florida or travel to the Bahamas when it’s cold then you may be less familiar with the overseeded conditions. Others who call Scottsdale home are very comfortable this week.

Easy-to-Hit Greens

TPC Scottsdale went through a 2014 renovation that included resurfacing of the greens.

Whenever that happens you generally need a few years for the grass to mature. In that time you see really firm and bouncy greens. That appears to be the case to a tee here at Scottsdale as the field average GIR rates look like this:

2013: 71.23%
2014: 68.23%
2015 (first year post-renovation): 62.48%
2016: 61.61%
2017: 68.47%
2018: 67.19%

I consider anything over 67% to be easy GIR conditions and we are easily back in taht territory now that the grass has matured.

The Top 10 Easy GIR Specialists:

Talor Gooch (1.543 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.841 sg:total)
Sam Ryder (1.639 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.024 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.398 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.816 sg:total)
Harold Varner III (1.538 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.041 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (2.176 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.757 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (2.145 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.727 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.584 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.195 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.577 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.188 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.432 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.088 sg:total)
Billy Horschel (1.737 sg:easy GIR vs. 1.421 sg:total)

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on Easy GIR courses since 2014 are Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Gary Woodland, Keegan Bradley, and Chez Reavie.

There are a few ways to succed on EASY GIR layouts. Great putters will get more chances to excel on the greens. Easy GIR also means fewer around-the-green shots so any that struggle in that department may get a boost. Finally, if greens are easy to hit then it probably means lots of wedges and short irons so any goflers that shine with those clubs might get a boost over their baseline.

Driver-Heavy Courses

TPC Scottsdale is a tad long when you account for par and the length of each hole. However, there aren’t many doglegs to deal with so golfers can grip it and rip it.

“You basically hit drivers out there and try to carry all the bunkers.” -Ben An

“you kind of forced to hit driver at tee shot. You want to hit a shorter club on second shot.” -Danny Lee

“I love coming out to a course like this where you can pound driver. There is a bunker out there that if you want to challenge it, you can hit it over or lay short.” -Keegan Bradley

The Top 10 Driver-Heavy Specialists:

Sung Kang (1.477 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.761 sg:total)
Carlos Ortiz (1.098 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.406 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (1.92 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.263 sg:total)
Jonas Blixt (1.046 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.454 sg:total)
Martin Laird (1.852 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.281 sg:total)
Colt Knost (1.043 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.494 sg:total)
Ollie Schniederjans (1.411 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.879 sg:total)
James Hahn (1.531 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.023 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (2.214 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.711 sg:total)
Andrew Putnam (1.658 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.163 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Driver-Heavy Courses since 2014 are Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, and Justin Thomas.

Even a missed cut last week wasn’t enough to drop Carlos Ortiz too far off this list. He’s still somewhat volatile, but his upside lies with courses like this which allow him to utilize the big stick.

Performance in the West

We moved out of California this week, but we are still “out West” in Arizona.

The grasses and climates are much different compared to the next chunk of the PGA TOUR schedule so let’s see who likes it out here.

The Top 10 West Coast Specialists:

Talor Gooch (2.126 sg:west vs. 0.841 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.644 sg:west vs. 0.816 sg:total)
Jon Rahm (3.113 sg:west vs. 2.432 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (2.399 sg:west vs. 1.757 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (1.363 sg:west vs. 0.721 sg:total)
Freddie Jacobson (1.214 sg:west vs. 0.587 sg:total)
Martin Laird (1.869 sg:west vs. 1.281 sg:total)
Sung Kang (1.326 sg:west vs. 0.761 sg:total)
Harris English (1.612 sg:west vs. 1.066 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.705 sg:west vs. 1.195 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in the West since 2014 are Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Gary Woodland, Chez Reavie, and Brendan Steele.

The quantity list is loaded with Scottsdale and/or Cali residents.

Gooch was number one on this list last week and he only added positives to that sample with a top 5 last week.

Performance in the Winter

Winter golf on the PGA TOUR means cool mornings and often overseeded grasses.

The Top 10 Winter Specialists:

Talor Gooch (1.92 sg:winter vs. 0.841 sg:total)
Jon Rahm (3.162 sg:winter vs. 2.432 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (2.135 sg:winter vs. 1.495 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (2.766 sg:winter vs. 2.128 sg:total)
Trey Mullinax (1.332 sg:winter vs. 0.735 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (1.297 sg:winter vs. 0.721 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (1.804 sg:winter vs. 1.263 sg:total)
Harris English (1.562 sg:winter vs. 1.066 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.901 sg:winter vs. 1.422 sg:total)
John Huh (1.271 sg:winter vs. 0.8 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in the Winter since 2014 are Justin Thomas, Phil Mickelson, Adam Hadwin, Gary Woodland, and Jon Rahm.

Rahm is going to dominate this area (quanity wise) once his sample increases. He’s already on the record as loving California golf and he’s a Scottsdale resident so this event should continue to treat him well, also.

Gooch is popping in this angle as well. Part of that is a lower sample size and the fact he’s arriving off two career-best finishes. Still, this kind of performance shouldn’t be ignored, either.

Baseline Performance

We’ve got four golfers left in our specialist search, but a few of them have spotty baseline performances when it comes to skill over the last 5 years, last year, or last 6 weeks…

Golfers that don’t have the form or long-term skill to trust:

Brian Stuard
John Huh

Stuard is 5-for-5 here in the desert with a pair of top 20s.

Huh is 4-for-7 with a T12 and T6 being the highlights.

Both have a strong course fit, but their overall baselines are suspect (89th and 104th in the field). If you isolate their performance to the last year (L52 Form in the table below) then they rank similarly, Huh at 82nd and Stuard at 107th. Might be worth a GPP punt but not golfers I want to trust in my core this week.

The Specialists

Adam Hadwin
Hideki Matsuyama

The two specialists left standing are Adam Hadwin (Scottsdale resident) and Hideki Matsuyama (two-time WMPO champ).

Based on his success here, the Desert Classic, and Innisbrook, it is safe to say he likes these winter overseeded conditions.

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Hadwin is 3-for-4 at the WMPO with a pair of top 20s on his resume. Given his current form, I am expecting another top 20 might be in the cards this week.

Speaking of current form, Matsuyama finally snapped out of a mini-slump last week and looked really impressive down the stretch at Torrey Pines. Now he arrives at TPC Scottsdale, which is a venue where he posted finishes of T4-T2-WIN-WIN before last year’s mid-tourney WD due to injury.

Both of these golfers should be drafted with confidence this week.

The Anti-Specialists

We’ve established the great course fits, but who doesn’t fit the layout as well?

Whee Kim
Kyle Stanley
Bronson Burgoon
Steve Stricker
Morgan Hoffmann
Stewart Cink

We saw Jason Day show up here last week to remind us that baseline performance is still a huge part of the equation. Even with a bad course fit, he was still expected to contend at Torrey Pines. However, his course history at Torrey Pines was all over the map. The same might be said for Kyle Stanley who won here in his 2012 debut, but he’s finished outside the top 35 in all six of his return visits. Might be one to add despite the previous course win. Or maybe that high upside makes him worth a flyer, knowing you are going to get a boom-or-bust result? I would lean toward a fade, personally.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Jon Rahm
Hideki Matsuyama
Gary Woodland
Phil Mickelson
Xander Schauffele
Adam Hadwin
Justin Thomas
Matt Kuchar
Chez Reavie
Sungjae Im
Brandt Snedeker
Webb Simpson
Daniel Berger
Jason Kokrak
Cameron Smith
Zach Johnson
Keegan Bradley
Tony Finau
Andrew Putnam
Luke List

The list above is loaded with golfers that have contended and even won here the last 5 years. It’s a little surprising to see Fowler not crack this list, but he’s yet to really ramp up his schedule so his form is lacking for now. He should still be given a strong look when you consider his results here over the last few years. On first glance it looks like Sungjae Im is the only golfer on this list that will be making their tourney debut.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made tiny adjustments for sample sizes, but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 6 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at SGTotal, FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

L52 FORM looks at performance over the last 52 weeks across the PGA TOUR, Web.com Tour, and European Tour.

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Overseed West Driver Winter Easy GIR Specialist Rating Simple Rating L52 Form
Talor Gooch $7,500 $8,700 NA 0.841 0 38.633 0 1.284 0 1.079 0.701 0.613 257 1.09
Sung Kang $7,000 $8,200 $12,100 0.761 1.102 25.868 0.378 0.565 0.716 0.427 -0.016 0.414 297 0.226
Adam Hadwin $9,000 $10,600 $15,300 1.495 1.471 23.165 0.773 0.367 0.052 0.641 0.112 0.389 121 1.9
Jon Rahm $11,500 $12,500 $18,600 2.432 2.51 44.995 0 0.682 0.397 0.731 0.071 0.376 15 2.603
Martin Laird $7,600 $9,900 $13,400 1.281 2.104 7.366 0.189 0.588 0.571 0.392 -0.068 0.335 269 1.424
Trey Mullinax $6,700 $7,600 $11,900 0.735 0 22.832 0.744 0.329 0 0.597 0 0.334 319 0.919
John Huh $6,500 $7,700 $11,700 0.8 1.55 11.633 0.594 0.212 0.296 0.471 0.085 0.332 356 0.927
Brendan Steele $7,400 $10,100 $13,200 1.422 2.513 1.054 0.622 0.484 0.233 0.479 -0.162 0.331 286 0.739
Hideki Matsuyama $10,700 $11,800 $17,400 2.305 3.321 22.868 0.617 0.333 0.317 0.105 0.255 0.325 53 2.15
Patton Kizzire $7,400 $9,600 $13,400 0.816 0.98 20.765 0.153 0.828 -0.462 0.469 0.583 0.314 310 0.676
Gary Woodland $9,900 $11,300 $16,600 1.757 1.919 31.679 -0.084 0.642 0.239 0.252 0.419 0.294 62 2.07
Jason Kokrak $7,300 $8,600 $13,000 1.263 0.979 22.63 0.005 0.374 0.657 0.541 -0.11 0.294 186 1.323
Harris English $6,900 $8,400 $12,100 1.066 1.446 16.256 0.279 0.546 0.452 0.496 -0.373 0.28 261 0.676
Cameron Smith $9,100 $10,700 $15,600 1.195 0.787 23.868 -0.028 0.51 0.14 0.361 0.389 0.275 199 1.579
Vaughn Taylor $6,600 $8,400 $11,800 1.004 1.632 10.967 0.852 0.148 0.197 0.186 -0.018 0.273 312 1.071
Ollie Schniederjans $6,700 $8,500 $11,900 0.879 2.586 -3.443 0.397 0.109 0.533 0.406 -0.092 0.271 482 0.494
Phil Mickelson $9,300 $11,100 $15,800 2.128 2.235 19.964 0.375 0.42 -0.049 0.638 -0.053 0.266 81 2.143
Scott Stallings $6,600 $7,600 $11,800 0.721 0.596 9.366 -0.186 0.642 0.443 0.577 -0.146 0.266 412 0.996
James Hahn $6,400 $8,300 $11,700 1.023 1.537 7.057 0.193 0.328 0.508 0.315 -0.049 0.259 357 0.963
Carlos Ortiz $6,500 $7,100 $10,800 0.406 0.188 8.756 0.053 0.36 0.693 0.294 -0.148 0.25 496 0.77
K.J. Choi $6,000 $7,200 $10,200 0.57 0.873 0 -0.027 0.442 0.454 0.38 -0.173 0.215 535 0.501
Michael Kim $6,200 $7,200 $10,700 0.389 1.047 -5.542 0.331 0.092 0.377 0.214 -0.02 0.199 630 -0.278
Nick Watney $6,800 $8,800 $12,100 1.12 1.482 5.13 0.246 -0.068 0.423 0.332 0.029 0.193 352 1.354
Brian Stuard $6,900 $8,000 $11,700 0.652 0.97 23.165 0.156 0.187 0.122 0.349 0.121 0.187 364 0.555
Sam Ryder $6,500 $8,200 $12,000 1.024 0 13.133 0 0.316 0 0 0.616 0.186 298 1.294
Ryan Palmer $7,700 $9,300 $13,700 1.239 0.807 9.366 0.227 0.354 0.281 0.307 -0.315 0.171 273 0.922
Freddie Jacobson $6,300 $7,100 $10,200 0.587 0.707 0 0.042 0.627 0.29 0.392 -0.506 0.169 535 -1.373
Bud Cauley $6,900 $9,000 $12,500 1.237 0.68 15.366 0.207 0.389 0.264 0.009 -0.071 0.16 241 1.081
Aaron Baddeley $6,800 $7,900 $12,000 0.952 0.906 10.464 0.326 0.355 -0.051 0.23 -0.068 0.159 353 1.251
Rory Sabbatini $6,500 $7,900 $11,500 0.808 1.243 12.832 0.099 -0.019 0.417 0.258 0.036 0.158 372 1.257
Andrew Landry $7,000 $8,000 $12,200 0.691 -0.021 6.831 1.255 -0.092 0 -0.103 -0.305 0.151 464 0.611
Sean O’Hair $6,500 $7,700 $11,500 0.917 0.522 10.279 0.863 -0.052 0.007 0.167 -0.253 0.146 367 0.617
Jonas Blixt $6,600 $7,300 $10,800 0.454 -0.06 5.669 -0.224 0.209 0.591 0.417 -0.375 0.124 518 0.344
Byeong Hun An $8,600 $9,200 $14,700 1.537 2.369 -0.495 0.043 0 0.087 0.328 0.124 0.116 316 1.781
Xander Schauffele $10,100 $11,200 $16,700 1.727 2.072 34.531 0 -0.132 0.33 -0.053 0.417 0.112 85 2.199
Tom Hoge $6,400 $7,100 $10,700 0.621 -0.021 3.792 -0.013 0.362 0.202 0.278 -0.271 0.111 510 0.562
Chez Reavie $8,700 $10,300 $14,600 1.548 1.72 27.165 0.042 0.501 -0.314 0.263 0.064 0.111 132 1.584
Brandon Harkins $6,200 $7,400 $10,800 0.995 0.229 -3.509 0 0.461 0 0.454 -0.371 0.109 476 0.647
Robert Streb $7,000 $7,800 $11,700 0.811 0.793 15.633 -0.052 0.253 0.258 -0.023 0.101 0.107 362 0.521
Jhonattan Vegas $6,800 $7,800 $11,800 0.975 0.41 0.054 -0.014 0.129 0.136 0.136 0.142 0.106 442 0.84
Brandt Snedeker $8,100 $10,400 $14,300 1.671 1.821 17.732 -0.15 0.332 0.238 0.167 -0.097 0.098 152 1.42
Jim Herman $6,300 $7,000 $10,300 0.631 -0.126 9.991 0.621 -0.219 -0.016 0.14 -0.052 0.095 459 -0.216
Andrew Putnam $8,500 $10,500 $14,400 1.163 0 36.529 0.147 0.137 0.496 -0.135 -0.296 0.07 217 1.656
Martin Kaymer $7,300 $7,900 $13,000 1.237 -0.431 7.916 0 0 0.061 0.285 0 0.069 316 0.595
Luke List $8,000 $9,400 $13,900 1.549 0.909 9.866 0.125 0.05 -0.094 0.254 -0.031 0.061 221 1.983
Beau Hossler $7,100 $9,500 $13,100 1.264 2.072 3.366 0.152 -0.107 0.219 -0.188 0.201 0.055 339 1.524
Bubba Watson $8,900 $10,200 $15,000 1.711 1.778 -5.133 0 -0.141 0.503 0.051 -0.146 0.054 332 1.698
Cameron Champ $8,300 $9,400 $14,500 1.482 0 8.104 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.05 263 1.399
Kevin Streelman $6,900 $8,300 $11,700 1.188 0.652 8.054 0.089 0.306 -0.179 0.157 -0.125 0.05 338 1.185
Jimmy Walker $6,800 $8,500 $12,100 1.431 0.294 -4.708 0.463 -0.194 0.044 0.096 -0.183 0.045 391 1.323
J.T. Poston $7,300 $8,700 $12,400 0.919 0 31.832 0.157 0.138 -0.394 0.284 0.017 0.041 295 1.072
Keith Mitchell $7,000 $8,000 $12,100 1.132 0 8.292 0 0 0 0 0.191 0.038 346 1.26
Sungjae Im $7,300 $9,000 $13,400 1.632 0 27.332 0 0 0 0 0.178 0.036 134 1.365
Austin Cook $7,900 $9,700 $13,400 1.527 1.405 0 0 0 0 -0.037 0.208 0.034 325 1.383
Scott Piercy $7,400 $9,200 $13,400 1.125 0.62 16.029 0.02 0.251 -0.436 0.075 0.261 0.034 295 1.135
J.B. Holmes $7,600 $10,000 $13,400 1.538 1.148 -4.409 -0.021 0.191 0.148 0.084 -0.244 0.032 371 1.405
Daniel Berger $8,200 $10,400 $14,500 1.797 2.249 11.554 0.555 -0.131 -0.305 0.014 0.025 0.032 179 1.766
Kevin Na $7,200 $9,500 $12,900 1.677 1.612 0 0.135 0.004 -0.215 0.004 0.228 0.031 296 1.778
Colt Knost $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 0.494 0.801 0.003 -0.131 -0.118 0.548 -0.043 -0.113 0.028 583 -0.862
Chesson Hadley $7,100 $9,100 $12,100 0.955 1.509 -3.71 0.31 0.261 -0.101 -0.203 -0.126 0.028 509 1.263
Joel Dahmen $6,800 $9,000 $12,300 0.983 0 24.368 0 -0.205 0 0.055 0.282 0.026 304 1.592
Nick Taylor $6,700 $7,500 $11,300 0.73 0.166 9.133 0.103 0.101 0.037 -0.061 -0.052 0.026 454 0.582
Billy Horschel $8,800 $9,800 $15,100 1.421 1.558 15.531 0.109 -0.138 -0.022 -0.178 0.316 0.017 238 1.841
Lucas Glover $7,200 $9,700 $13,300 1.433 0.942 11.964 -0.071 0.106 -0.178 0.066 0.115 0.008 246 1.589
Bill Haas $7,100 $9,200 $12,100 1.436 1.1 0.866 -0.136 0.131 0.177 0.089 -0.244 0.003 338 0.965
Sam Burns $7,100 $8,400 $12,100 0.697 0 18.633 0 0 0 0 0 0 410 0.916
Adam Long $6,400 $7,700 $11,400 0.404 0 21.557 0 0 0 0 0 0 469 0.694
Anders Albertson $6,300 $7,900 $11,700 0.663 0 8.054 0 0 0 0 0 0 496 1.174
Chase Wright $6,600 $7,000 $10,500 0.408 0 5.991 0 0 0 0 0 0 561 0.324
John Catlin $6,200 NA NA 0.376 0 2.964 0 0 0 0 0 0 595 0.104
Michael Hopper $6,100 $7,000 NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 628 0
Matthew Wolff $6,000 $7,000 $10,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 628 0
Kenny Perry $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 -0.45 0.428 -4.997 0 0 0 0 0 0 691 -2.078
Richy Werenski $7,000 $8,700 $11,800 0.74 -0.021 -3.71 -0.16 0.296 0 -0.3 0.161 -0.001 574 0.946
Keegan Bradley $7,800 $9,800 $14,000 1.609 1.28 16.232 -0.273 -0.03 0.178 -0.153 0.205 -0.014 202 1.779
Webb Simpson $9,700 $10,800 $16,100 2.039 1.932 12.864 -0.064 -0.049 -0.193 -0.053 0.24 -0.024 176 2.568
Zach Johnson $7,800 $10,000 $14,000 1.841 1.702 10.467 0.138 -0.028 -0.178 -0.118 0.056 -0.026 201 1.881
Chris Kirk $6,600 $8,600 $11,900 1.202 1.756 -7.708 0.284 -0.186 0.001 -0.085 -0.149 -0.027 478 1.317
Ryan Moore $7,200 $9,700 $12,600 1.63 1.138 -3.909 0.221 -0.045 -0.149 0.012 -0.179 -0.028 373 1.669
Charl Schwartzel $7,300 $8,300 $12,200 1.418 0 -2.232 0.739 -0.593 0.177 -0.413 -0.062 -0.03 407 0.815
Adam Schenk $6,300 $7,500 $11,000 0.551 0 -1.367 0 -0.073 0 -0.15 0.033 -0.038 625 0.937
Stephan Jaeger $6,600 NA NA 0.359 0 5.067 0 -0.019 0 -0.3 0.122 -0.04 602 0.632
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $7,000 $8,100 $12,200 1.188 -0.075 -9.404 0 0 -0.416 -0.221 0.389 -0.05 491 1.119
Russell Knox $7,400 $8,800 $13,000 1.366 0.478 22.332 -0.045 0.066 -0.37 -0.048 0.139 -0.051 248 1.395
Chris Stroud $6,400 $7,000 $10,700 0.582 0.291 3.866 -0.053 -0.103 -0.114 -0.018 0.013 -0.055 566 0.509
Grayson Murray $6,400 $7,500 $10,700 0.436 0.239 -15.134 0.296 -0.108 0.183 -0.256 -0.402 -0.057 694 0.186
Abraham Ancer $7,700 $9,200 $13,800 1.05 0 20.756 -0.044 -0.267 0.318 -0.382 0.08 -0.059 326 1.521
Brian Gay $6,700 $9,300 $11,900 0.996 1.384 8.4 -0.251 -0.104 -0.1 -0.117 0.264 -0.062 419 1.344
Stewart Cink $6,700 $9,000 $11,700 1.362 -0.465 11.292 -0.185 -0.003 -0.075 -0.054 -0.002 -0.064 306 1.348
J.J. Spaun $7,100 $8,600 $12,800 1.088 2.339 2.554 0.496 -0.032 -0.849 -0.304 0.343 -0.069 440 1.051
Tyrrell Hatton $7,900 $9,600 $14,100 1.962 0 1.005 0 0 -0.602 0 0.257 -0.069 290 1.951
Joaquin Niemann $7,200 $8,900 $12,600 1.403 0 -2.634 0 0 0 0 -0.347 -0.069 427 1.456
Hunter Mahan $6,600 $7,900 $11,400 0.56 0.692 -0.71 -0.102 -0.007 0.099 -0.035 -0.339 -0.077 628 0.898
Kevin Kisner $7,400 $9,100 $12,900 1.461 0.083 5.665 -0.121 -0.147 0.022 -0.214 0.051 -0.082 332 1.071
Alex Noren $8,400 $9,900 $14,300 1.703 1.905 -4.407 0 0 -0.225 0.093 -0.281 -0.083 375 2.052
Mackenzie Hughes $6,300 $7,600 $10,900 0.673 0 8.815 -0.464 -0.094 0.149 -0.194 0.17 -0.087 513 0.688
Cody Gribble $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 0.106 -0.495 1.554 0 -0.128 -0.063 -0.507 0.237 -0.092 640 -0.285
Denny McCarthy $6,500 $7,800 $11,700 0.923 0 0.79 0 -0.613 0 0 0.136 -0.095 505 1.495
Brandon Hagy $6,100 $7,600 $10,900 0.662 -0.497 4.366 0 -0.099 0 0.179 -0.575 -0.099 560 0.698
Matt Kuchar $9,200 $10,700 $15,700 2.172 2.405 27.566 -0.305 0.01 0.246 -0.149 -0.336 -0.107 131 1.917
Justin Thomas $11,000 $12,100 $18,000 2.432 1.629 30.066 -0.803 0.006 0.032 0.167 0.014 -0.117 121 3.08
Emiliano Grillo $7,600 $9,800 $14,100 1.683 0.532 14.368 0 -0.301 -0.151 -0.19 0.002 -0.128 221 2.067
Russell Henley $6,900 $9,500 $12,000 1.42 0.833 -3.1 0.317 -0.524 -0.086 -0.493 0.139 -0.129 435 1.312
Peter Uihlein $6,800 $7,900 $12,100 1.22 0.572 1.79 0 0 0 -0.427 -0.247 -0.135 420 1.193
Branden Grace $8,000 $9,600 NA 1.637 0 9.014 0.321 0 -0.151 -0.526 -0.343 -0.14 277 1.435
Si Woo Kim $7,500 $8,900 $13,200 0.898 -0.419 18.133 -0.419 -0.005 0.179 -0.553 0.084 -0.143 398 1.229
Alex Cejka $6,000 $7,100 $10,300 0.84 -0.456 5.054 0.169 -0.172 -0.49 -0.164 -0.108 -0.153 512 0.915
Rickie Fowler $9,400 $11,000 $16,300 2.491 2.481 0.667 0.072 -0.408 0.058 -0.266 -0.222 -0.153 289 2.529
Ryan Armour $6,900 $7,900 $11,800 1.003 0.229 10.9 -0.323 -0.076 -0.224 -0.272 0.025 -0.174 411 1.153
Kevin Tway $7,100 $8,900 $12,900 1.131 0.344 19.534 -0.43 -0.175 0.127 -0.628 0.226 -0.176 335 1.437
Charley Hoffman $6,900 $9,300 $12,100 1.545 1.295 -2.71 -0.205 -0.384 0.196 -0.141 -0.35 -0.177 403 1.346
Ted Potter, Jr. $6,800 $8,100 $11,900 0.785 0.07 11.566 0.289 -0.218 -0.836 -0.362 0.213 -0.183 466 1.085
Patrick Rodgers $6,700 $8,200 $11,700 0.879 0.162 -12.407 -0.501 -0.059 -0.008 -0.373 0.022 -0.184 606 1.225
Tony Finau $9,500 $10,900 $16,000 2.042 0.432 13.667 -0.577 -0.006 0.186 -0.277 -0.246 -0.184 205 2.71
Brian Harman $7,000 $8,900 $11,900 1.209 0.923 -15.708 -0.463 -0.109 -0.368 0.068 -0.176 -0.21 524 0.567
Satoshi Kodaira $6,100 $7,200 $10,400 -0.091 0 -14.042 0 0 0 0 -1.077 -0.215 752 -0.109
Harold Varner III $7,200 $8,900 $12,200 1.041 0.421 13.054 -0.418 -0.279 -0.178 -0.704 0.496 -0.216 389 1.278
Kelly Kraft $6,200 $7,400 $10,600 0.451 -1.521 -2.907 -0.562 -0.362 -0.286 -0.034 0.147 -0.219 682 0.572
Ryan Blaum $6,100 $8,000 $10,800 0.727 -1.021 -0.668 -0.313 -0.281 -0.409 -0.167 0.055 -0.223 604 0.665
Kyle Stanley $7,500 $9,100 $12,900 1.407 0.582 2.792 -0.244 -0.301 -0.302 -0.19 -0.239 -0.255 402 1.636
Danny Lee $6,700 $8,100 $12,100 1.082 0.065 -4.208 -0.254 -0.596 -0.122 -0.522 0.126 -0.274 540 1.193
Steve Stricker $6,500 $9,000 $12,000 1.799 1.224 -1.351 -0.3 -0.4 -0.018 -0.25 -0.446 -0.283 361 1.773
Bronson Burgoon $6,400 $7,800 $10,900 0.863 0 -0.21 -0.228 -0.238 -0.731 -0.192 -0.054 -0.289 568 1.222
Brice Garnett $6,400 $7,800 $11,700 0.679 -0.114 10.156 -0.705 -0.293 -0.325 -0.332 0.165 -0.298 524 0.97
C.T. Pan $7,200 $8,600 $12,600 1.148 -0.153 7.63 -0.906 -0.567 0.256 -0.332 0.027 -0.304 426 1.467
Morgan Hoffmann $6,300 $7,300 $10,400 0.62 0.127 -1.333 -0.39 -0.463 -0.456 -0.237 -0.011 -0.311 651 -0.005
Tyler Duncan $6,000 $7,400 $10,300 0.447 -1.271 5.256 0 -0.854 0 -0.593 -0.148 -0.319 622 0.337
Seamus Power $6,100 $7,100 $10,300 0.711 0 -29.708 -0.045 -0.829 0 -0.76 -0.486 -0.424 677 0.094
Whee Kim $6,000 $7,700 $10,400 0.536 0.076 -9.708 -0.326 -0.371 -0.432 -0.831 -0.212 -0.434 716 0.371

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.