Searching for a Specialist: Wells Fargo

by Josh Culp (futureoffantasy) Last Updated 2016-05-06 23:11:08

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After a weather-shortened Zurich Classic, we are back for another specialist search.

Last week’s specialists went 6-for-6 and clearly they all would have made their move on the final round if weather didn’t ruin things! Joking aside, it’s never a bad week when you get all the specialists through the cut and have three land inside the top 20.

The search this week will focus on long courses, driver-heavy layouts, par 72 tracks, and finish up with performance on bermudagrass greens.

Editor’s Note: Join the discussion! Check out our forum thread for the Wells Fargo Championship.

Here we go…

Long Courses

The course this week is Quail Hollow Club and boy is it long! It’s over 7,500 yards which means long irons and long drives will be key this week.

Looking at the past, we can see that some golfers really struggle as the course stretches out. We want to avoid those guys this week.

The Top 10 Long Course Specialists are:

Erik Compton (0.951 sg:long vs. -0.051 sg:total)
Scott Pinckney (0.702 sg:long vs. -0.148 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (1.289 sg:long vs. 0.658 sg:total)
Chad Collins (0.527 sg:long vs. -0.089 sg:total)
Carlos Ortiz (0.445 sg:long vs. -0.156 sg:total)
Matt Jones (0.862 sg:long vs. 0.308 sg:total)
Kyle Reifers (0.677 sg:long vs. 0.125 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (0.258 sg:long vs. -0.284 sg:total)
Jamie Lovemark (0.906 sg:long vs. 0.379 sg:total)
Whee Kim (0.351 sg:long vs. -0.142 sg:total)

Spoiler Alert: The specialist this week in not in the list above. If I removed Whee Kim he would be though. Let’s not throw Kim under the bus, though. The specialist this week is 11th in the field in terms of performance on long courses versus baseline strokes gained.

The biggest ANTI-Specialist on long courses is William McGirt. Over his last 36 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards, he’s actually lost 18 strokes to the field. He’s playing some fantastic golf this year and has some Carolina connections, but he’s probably a golfer to avoid this week.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 61

Driver-Heavy Courses

Very similar to the last metric we looked at, but not all long courses are the same. For instance, last week’s Zurich Classic was played on a venue over 7,400 yards but it forced driver out of your hand on a lot of the short par 4s.

Quail Hollow is the exact opposite, as that driver is basically the play on every par 4 and par 5. We want golfers that can bomb it off the tee and gain a lot of strokes in that regard.

Another route is to be EXTREMELY accurate off the tee and make up for your lack of distance with great long-iron approaches. The latter approach is much more difficult to depend on because a poor driving round or two and that golfer has no chance to survive the round without ballooning to a huge number. In the first case, a golfer isn’t going to lose their advantage (DISTANCE) in the middle of a tournament, so they will continue to have shorter clubs into greens and may be able to survive without their A game.

The following golfers perform well on courses that let you grip-it and rip-it off the tee.

The top 10 remaining Driver-Heavy Specialists:

Patrick Rodgers (0.772 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.279 sg:total)
Harris English (1.161 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.741 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (0.058 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.361 sg:total)
Carlos Ortiz (0.214 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.156 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (2.485 sg:driver-heavy vs. 2.128 sg:total)
Ernie Els (0.327 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.008 sg:total)
Andres Gonzales (-0.201 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.508 sg:total)
Tony Finau (0.993 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.733 sg:total)
Danny Lee (0.702 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.462 sg:total)
Ricky Barnes (0.198 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.01 sg:total)

Carlos Ortiz is the only repeat from the first list. Like I said, not all long courses are created equal.

On the flip side we see golfers like Stuart Appleby, Cameron Tringale, and Jamie Donaldson. These golfers are not long off the tee and depend heavily on their putter to perform. On a course where length is an advantage, they are using their putting prowess to attempt par saves while the long hitters are trying to roll in birdie putts.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 21

Par 72 Courses

Like I’ve mentioned in the past, we can find some correlation to success just by looking at the layout of the scorecard. Par 72s feature two more par 5s than par 70s, and that will lead to more eagles in general.

It’s not a clear-cut rule, but par 72s generally favor length while par 70s can often be ruled by great putters.

The Top 10 Par 72 Specialists that remain are:

Andres Gonzales (-0.098 sg:par72 vs. -0.508 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.174 sg:par72 vs. -0.211 sg:total)
Tony Finau (1.046 sg:par72 vs. 0.733 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (0.553 sg:par72 vs. 0.279 sg:total)
Jim Herman (0.337 sg:par72 vs. 0.088 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (-0.112 sg:par72 vs. -0.361 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (0.882 sg:par72 vs. 0.653 sg:total)
Carlos Ortiz (0.054 sg:par72 vs. -0.156 sg:total)
Charles Howell III (0.953 sg:par72 vs. 0.743 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (2.329 sg:par72 vs. 2.128 sg:total)

Oh man, there is Carlos Ortiz again. His strokes gained per round of 0.054 on par 72s is not enticing at all, but he’s made the top-10 specialist list on all three angles, and that makes him worth a look. He’s struggled with club changes this year but his upside remains huge and it would not be shocking to see him win multiple times on the PGA TOUR before his career is over. This might be a venue to take a shot on him.

The slightly alarming name we eliminate here is Jason Day. We saw him win on bermuda back at the API, but even with those strokes accounted for he’s still gaining 0.467 strokes per round less on bermuda. Even with his less-than-stellar bermuda record, he’s about five notches above the majority of this field and still makes for a great play. Just not a specialist.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 14

Bermuda Greens

Last but not least is the green surfaces this week. When bermuda greens are on tap it’s almost always important to look at golfers that have past success on these type of greens.

This week it’s important to note that Quail Hollow changed from bentgrass to bermuda following the disaster of 2013. If someone has shown a sharp decline in course history over the last few Wells Fargos and they’re also negative on this bermuda list, might want to consider fading them.

The golfers we lose at this stage due to bermuda performance are:

Scott Stallings
Rory Mcilroy
Jim Herman
Carlos Ortiz
Andres Gonzales
Tony Finau

It was a good run for Ortiz, but he falls short of specialist status. Same with Rory, but we’ve seen him win here on bentgrass as well as bermuda. The green surfaces are not where McIlroy gains his ground over the field.

GOLFERS REMAINING: 8

Baseline Performance

This is the part where we separate the safe specialists from the GPP specialists. We don’t want our specialist to need a career week just to get their expected performance over field average.

Using a SG:Total threshold of 0.250 strokes per round, we can remove the following names:

Michael Thompson
Steve Wheatcroft
Roberto Castro
Lucas Glover

All four of these golfers have some decent results at Quail Hollow, making them great GPP options. I would even consider Glover for cash when you factor in his recent form and salary on DK.

The Specialists

Patrick Rodgers
Daniel Berger
Gary Woodland
Charles Howell III

patrick-rodgers-300x200

Our specialist at Quail Hollow is Patrick Rodgers!

When we have a newer TOUR player like Rodgers, I’m always weary of small sample sizes. In this case, I wanted to make sure his runner-up finish last year wasn’t boosting all of his numbers since they obviously occurred in the same conditions we are looking at this week.

When we exclude last year’s runner-up he’s still a specialist. Even better news is that data point is not something we NEED to throw it. It helps us determine that Quail Hollow is the type of course than can really cater to Rodgers long, high draw off the tee, as he’s said so himself.

Berger arrives in fantastic form so I like the combination of form and course fit.

Gary Woodland recently reunited with Butch Harmon and I think it’s going to give him that killer instinct back. He actually made improvements in his game statistically over the last few seasons, but he can’t find the winner’s circle. Narrative + Course Fit + Course History = Stamp of Approval.

Charles Howell III doesn’t have the best course history, but he does sport five top 25s in 13 starts here. Considering the form he’s arriving in after switching to PXG irons, I think a sixth top 25 is certainly in the cards.

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2013-14) and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle in comparison to the baseline strokes gained.

Golfer	DK	SG:Total	Bermuda	Long Course	Driver Heavy	Par 72	Specialist Rating
Erik Compton	$5,600	-0.051	0.285	1.002	-0.572	0.768	0.371
Patrick Rodgers	$7,700	0.279	0.255	0.457	0.493	0.274	0.37
Scott Pinckney	$5,300	-0.148	0.123	0.851	-0.164	0.438	0.312
Lucas Glover	$6,300	-0.211	0.459	0.212	0.087	0.385	0.286
Chad Collins	$6,700	-0.089	0.003	0.616	-0.104	0.558	0.268
Carlos Ortiz	$5,900	-0.156	-0.307	0.601	0.37	0.209	0.219
Daniel Berger	$8,400	0.658	0.059	0.631	0.033	0.125	0.212
Jamie Lovemark	$7,900	0.379	0.082	0.528	-0.147	0.355	0.205
Gary Woodland	$7,800	0.653	0.282	0.243	0.058	0.228	0.203
Mark Wilson	$6,300	-0.397	0.172	0.421	-0.155	0.366	0.201
Matt Jones	$6,100	0.308	0.226	0.554	-0.193	0.211	0.2
Michael Thompson	$5,600	-0.034	0.152	0.357	0.118	0.135	0.191
Chesson Hadley	$5,600	-0.284	0.154	0.542	-0.306	0.349	0.185
Scott Stallings	$7,100	-0.361	-0.191	0.258	0.419	0.249	0.184
Steve Wheatcroft	$6,100	-0.149	0.153	0.314	0.06	0.196	0.181
Rory Mcilroy	$12,800	2.128	-0.255	0.385	0.357	0.201	0.172
Phil Mickelson	$9,500	1.055	0.262	0.337	-0.221	0.301	0.17
Zac Blair	$5,900	0.138	0.168	0.451	0.107	-0.068	0.165
Jason Gore	$5,700	0.032	0.482	0.336	-0.182	-0.042	0.148
Harris English	$7,300	0.741	0.149	0.005	0.421	-0.007	0.142
Roberto Castro	$5,900	-0.161	0.238	0.058	0.083	0.171	0.137
Boo Weekley	$5,800	-0.016	0.217	-0.312	0.572	0.067	0.136
Ben Martin	$7,000	0.277	0.534	0.085	0.032	-0.109	0.135
Tyler Aldridge	$5,500	-0.092	0.234	0	0	0.301	0.134
Brendan Steele	$7,200	0.73	0.26	0.222	-0.065	0.111	0.132
Whee Kim	$5,800	-0.142	0.297	0.492	-0.255	-0.022	0.128
Rob Oppenheim	$5,500	-0.363	0.196	0	0	0.303	0.125
Bronson Burgoon	$6,000	0.257	0.206	0	0	0.29	0.124
Andres Gonzales	$5,400	-0.508	-0.356	0.134	0.308	0.411	0.124
Luke List	$6,900	0.671	0.064	0	0	0.397	0.115
Jhonattan Vegas	$6,400	0.054	0.102	0.214	-0.035	0.165	0.111
Charles Howell III	$8,100	0.743	0.054	0.159	0.017	0.209	0.11
Colt Knost	$6,200	0.362	-0.001	-0.09	0.408	0.117	0.109
Ollie Schniederjans	$6,400	0.212	0	0	0.699	-0.277	0.105
Will MacKenzie	$6,000	0.064	-0.013	0.433	-0.149	0.116	0.097
Henrik Norlander	$5,900	-0.009	0	0	0	0.364	0.091
Webb Simpson	$7,900	0.671	0.295	-0.15	0.375	-0.158	0.09
Bud Cauley	$5,600	0.067	-0.199	0	0	0.55	0.088
Nick Taylor	$6,000	-0.178	0.058	0.296	-0.414	0.401	0.085
Andrew Loupe	$5,700	-0.085	0.019	-0.03	-0.167	0.488	0.078
Kevin Streelman	$7,500	0.146	0.078	-0.093	0.152	0.157	0.073
Sean O’Hair	$6,100	0.118	0.162	0.246	-0.235	0.118	0.073
David Hearn	$6,100	0.301	0.042	0.203	-0.12	0.153	0.069
J.B. Holmes	$9,100	0.703	-0.301	0.424	-0.163	0.313	0.068
Jason Kokrak	$7,200	0.583	0.263	0.278	-0.295	0.024	0.067
Brian Stuard	$7,200	0.167	0.193	-0.235	0.256	0.053	0.067
Ricky Barnes	$5,800	-0.01	0.156	0.025	0.209	-0.123	0.067
Kyle Reifers	$6,500	0.125	-0.374	0.552	-0.412	0.496	0.066
Jim Herman	$6,200	0.088	-0.282	0.254	0.038	0.249	0.065
Byeong-Hun An	$8,600	0.368	0	0	0	0.217	0.054
Vaughn Taylor	$5,400	0.571	-0.049	0	0	0.264	0.054
Ben Crane	$5,900	-0.212	0.091	-0.303	0.244	0.157	0.047
Harold Varner III	$6,900	0.067	-0.034	0	0	0.205	0.043
Justin Thomas	$8,000	0.767	-0.083	-0.194	0.058	0.379	0.04
Michael Kim	$5,700	-0.227	-0.109	0	0	0.244	0.034
Jason Bohn	$7,100	0.592	-0.172	-0.107	0.374	0.012	0.027
Retief Goosen	$6,200	0.079	-0.058	0.31	-0.362	0.2	0.023
Rickie Fowler	$10,900	1.198	-0.144	-0.049	0.541	-0.263	0.021
Jonas Blixt	$6,600	-0.028	-0.332	0.171	-0.079	0.321	0.02
Greg Owen	$5,400	-0.358	0.07	-0.244	0.765	-0.514	0.019
Danny Lee	$7,600	0.462	-0.236	0.104	0.24	-0.047	0.015
Henrik Stenson	$10,200	1.529	0.013	0.335	-0.113	-0.19	0.011
Hiroshi Iwata	$5,300	-0.093	-0.384	0	0	0.428	0.011
Angel Cabrera	$5,700	-0.275	-0.251	-0.147	0.223	0.209	0.009
Shane Lowry	$7,800	0.793	-0.499	-0.051	0.921	-0.344	0.007
D.A. Points	$5,600	-0.775	0.16	0.009	-0.169	0.018	0.004
Brett Stegmaier	$5,900	-0.094	0.138	0	0	-0.126	0.003
Alex Cejka	$6,300	0.195	0.035	-0.224	0.276	-0.075	0.003
Adam Hadwin	$5,800	0.239	-0.266	-0.01	0.118	0.166	0.002
Jeff Overton	$6,500	0.124	-0.039	-0.197	0.149	0.091	0.001
Matt Dobyns	$5,300	-0.999	0	0	0	0	0
Kelly Mitchum	$5,300	-4.46	0	0	0	0	0
Bobby Wyatt	$6,000	0.024	0	0	0	0	0
Bryson DeChambeau	$7,800	0.667	0	0	0	0	0
Martin Laird	$7,000	0.202	-0.012	-0.012	0.112	-0.103	-0.004
Ernie Els	$6,000	-0.008	-0.497	0.3	0.335	-0.158	-0.005
Trevor Immelman	$5,400	-0.739	-0.208	0.15	0.149	-0.116	-0.006
Daniel Summerhays	$6,800	0.562	0.014	0.149	-0.148	-0.045	-0.007
Paul Casey	$8,900	1.054	0.091	0.057	-0.078	-0.126	-0.014
Patton Kizzire	$7,700	0.842	-0.091	0	0	0	-0.023
Morgan Hoffmann	$6,600	0.033	0.157	0.097	-0.069	-0.277	-0.023
Kyle Stanley	$6,800	-0.222	-0.266	-0.129	0.509	-0.218	-0.026
Robert Streb	$7,400	0.603	0.032	-0.206	0.109	-0.038	-0.026
Cameron Smith	$6,700	0.239	0.088	-0.072	0	-0.126	-0.027
Justin Rose	$10,000	1.599	-0.333	0.204	-0.099	0.1	-0.032
Brendon de Jonge	$5,900	0.207	-0.043	0.044	-0.007	-0.131	-0.034
Derek Fathauer	$5,800	-0.091	-0.284	0.078	-0.331	0.387	-0.037
Shawn Stefani	$6,600	0.28	0.026	0.152	-0.176	-0.171	-0.042
Cameron Tringale	$6,800	0.385	0.078	0.209	-0.497	0.036	-0.043
Ian Poulter	$7,100	0.517	-0.014	0.081	-0.379	0.129	-0.046
Patrick Reed	$9,700	0.804	-0.031	0.086	-0.375	0.128	-0.048
Tony Finau	$7,600	0.733	-0.91	0.145	0.26	0.313	-0.048
Peter Malnati	$6,100	-0.223	0.193	-0.395	-0.199	0.194	-0.052
Sam Saunders	$5,300	-0.477	-0.07	0.399	-0.13	-0.416	-0.054
Si Woo Kim	$6,900	0.512	-0.337	0	0	0.114	-0.056
Jonathan Byrd	$6,500	0.12	0.027	-0.001	-0.6	0.342	-0.058
David Lingmerth	$7,300	0.015	0.151	-0.388	-0.006	-0.007	-0.063
Matt Every	$5,600	-0.56	0.787	-0.11	-0.797	-0.154	-0.069
Francesco Molinari	$6,800	0.73	0.208	-0.319	-0.484	0.3	-0.074
Chad Campbell	$6,300	0.346	-0.114	-0.2	0.319	-0.309	-0.076
Vijay Singh	$5,300	0.057	-0.129	-0.112	0.206	-0.289	-0.081
Emiliano Grillo	$7,700	0.598	-0.357	-0.092	-0.244	0.351	-0.085
Kevin Chappell	$7,900	0.656	0.064	0.054	-0.223	-0.241	-0.087
Stuart Appleby	$5,800	0.164	0.385	0.182	-0.903	-0.036	-0.093
Scott Brown	$7,500	0.252	0.108	0.064	-0.343	-0.219	-0.097
Geoff Ogilvy	$6,200	-0.369	-0.107	0.083	-0.37	-0.024	-0.105
Bill Haas	$8,200	0.891	0.096	-0.216	-0.54	0.211	-0.112
Adam Scott	$10,600	1.475	-0.107	-0.108	-0.161	-0.108	-0.121
Ryan Moore	$7,500	0.758	0.226	-0.377	-0.306	-0.034	-0.123
Mark Hubbard	$6,400	-0.055	-0.03	-0.291	-0.343	0.17	-0.123
Will Wilcox	$6,600	0.576	0.014	-0.642	0.543	-0.421	-0.126
Jamie Donaldson	$7,000	0.542	0.03	0.001	-0.76	0.217	-0.128
Johnson Wagner	$6,200	-0.045	-0.323	-0.123	-0.368	0.286	-0.132
Dawie van der Walt	$5,300	-0.397	-0.438	0	0	-0.115	-0.138
Justin Hicks	$5,400	-0.227	-0.119	-0.271	-0.228	0.013	-0.151
Sung Kang	$5,900	0.277	-0.234	0	0	-0.405	-0.16
Kevin Kisner	$8,100	0.583	0.066	-0.415	-0.349	0.058	-0.16
Spencer Levin	$6,700	0.148	-0.151	-0.433	0.059	-0.125	-0.163
Davis Love III	$5,500	-0.332	0.249	-0.33	-0.36	-0.211	-0.163
Luke Donald	$7,300	0.529	0.404	-0.211	-0.418	-0.428	-0.163
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,300	1.32	-0.279	-0.16	-0.272	0.043	-0.167
George McNeill	$6,100	0.444	0.076	-0.373	-0.255	-0.12	-0.168
Anirban Lahiri	$6,900	-0.018	-0.173	-0.405	-0.117	-0.036	-0.183
David Toms	$5,700	0.438	0.009	-0.385	-0.58	0.222	-0.184
Fabian Gomez	$5,800	-0.102	0.497	-0.855	0.092	-0.514	-0.195
Chris Stroud	$6,300	0.248	-0.59	0.239	-0.495	0.059	-0.197
Derek Ernst	$6,100	-1.021	0.147	-0.206	-0.461	-0.28	-0.2
Blayne Barber	$5,800	-0.059	0.442	-0.162	-1.156	0.051	-0.206
Steve Marino	$5,600	-0.333	-0.481	0	0	-0.345	-0.207
Padraig Harrington	$6,900	-0.4	0.116	-0.362	-0.601	0.019	-0.207
Robert Allenby	$5,400	-0.831	0.218	-0.358	-0.317	-0.381	-0.209
Tim Wilkinson	$5,700	-0.208	-0.219	-0.318	0.009	-0.311	-0.21
Tyrone Van Aswegen	$5,700	-0.259	-0.463	-0.589	0.611	-0.414	-0.214
Camilo Villegas	$6,000	0.12	0.031	-0.533	0	-0.373	-0.219
Graham DeLaet	$7,400	0.773	-0.068	-0.28	-0.424	-0.124	-0.224
Tom Hoge	$6,700	0.081	0.177	-0.63	-0.054	-0.404	-0.228
James Hahn	$7,000	-0.089	-0.055	-0.811	-0.075	-0.001	-0.236
Rory Sabbatini	$5,500	-0.062	0.275	-0.759	-0.505	0.041	-0.237
John Senden	$6,600	0.481	-0.073	-0.299	-0.499	-0.106	-0.244
Steven Bowditch	$5,500	-0.413	-0.284	-0.145	-0.591	0.018	-0.25
Hunter Mahan	$6,500	0.297	-0.597	-0.082	-0.47	0.089	-0.265
Jim Furyk	$8,000	1.728	-0.343	-0.382	-0.022	-0.313	-0.265
Martin Kaymer	$7,400	0.461	-0.365	-0.418	-0.205	-0.081	-0.267
J.J. Henry	$6,400	-0.314	-0.514	-0.565	0.138	-0.139	-0.27
Brendon Todd	$6,500	0.428	-0.394	-0.501	-0.07	-0.12	-0.271
Scott Langley	$7,000	0.088	-0.08	-0.446	-0.631	-0.041	-0.299
William McGirt	$6,400	0.436	0.07	-0.937	-0.106	-0.53	-0.376
Brian Harman	$6,700	0.322	-0.101	-0.877	-0.425	-0.288	-0.423