Searching for a Specialist: WGC-Bridgestone
Welcome back to another edition of the specialist search.
Doing a quick recap of last week, we got 5-of-7 through the cut, but they didn’t do much damage over the weekend. In hindsight, I agree with kdub’s comment from last week when he said two angles was not enough to narrow down a specialist. Last week was my first time dialing it down to two, but I don’t think it’ll happen again. Week-to-week improvement is what this is all about! I appreciate all the comments as they often spark improvements on the process.
This week we keep both of last week’s angles (Bengrass and Driver-Heavy Courses) but also add in Fast Greens as the third angle for Firestone Country Club.
Here we go…
Bentgrass Greens
Let’s start with the basics this week. Firestone Country Club is the venue and they have bentgrass greens.
One way to look at this is to look at bermuda specialists and try to avoid them since that’s basically the opposite side of the green surface spectrum. That is an interesting way to look at it, but let’s go straight to the source instead and see who performs best on bentgrass when compared to their baseline output.
The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists are:
Rickie Fowler (1.509 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.142 sg:total)
Billy Hurley III (0.431 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.108 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (1.067 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.803 sg:total)
Steven Bowditch (-0.282 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.541 sg:total)
Justin Rose (1.858 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.615 sg:total)
Anirban Lahiri (0.234 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.04 sg:total)
Danny Lee (0.682 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.507 sg:total)
Jim Furyk (1.787 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.626 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (0.464 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.313 sg:total)
Brandt Snedeker (0.876 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.749 sg:total)
BH3 was already a bentgrass specialist before last week and then we saw him go out and win on bentgrass at Congressional.
Much like Finau, Fowler continues to be a guy I always want to back on bentgrass. We saw both of them fade on Sunday last week, though. I’m not afraid to get back on Fowler.
On the other side we have Fabian Gomez as a very large anti-bentgrass guy. Over his last 16 starts on bentgrass he’s posted just one top 25. Keep your Gomez fliers to bermuda weeks only.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 20
Fast Greens
The next angle we want to look at is fast green speeds. When you look at PGA TOUR events, all of the greens are quick if you’re just comparing them to your local Muni, but some go above and beyond.
For our sake, we are looking at all events with a stimpmeter rating that is greater than 12 feet and Firestone is generally between 12.5 and 13.
The Top 10 Fast Green Specialists remaining:
Billy Hurley III (0.509 sg:fast greens vs. 0.108 sg:total)
Zach Johnson (1.203 sg:fast greens vs. 0.928 sg:total)
David Lingmerth (0.33 sg:fast greens vs. 0.104 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (1.021 sg:fast greens vs. 0.803 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (0.906 sg:fast greens vs. 0.701 sg:total)
Justin Rose (1.814 sg:fast greens vs. 1.615 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (0.785 sg:fast greens vs. 0.662 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (0.423 sg:fast greens vs. 0.313 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (0.919 sg:fast greens vs. 0.817 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (0.835 sg:fast greens vs. 0.489 sg:total)
.
What do we see above? Golfers that are strong tee-to-green and some that are great scramblers.
Justin Rose makes the list above, which is impressive considering his 1.615 strokes gained per round baseline. Over his last 19 starts on fast greens, he’s finished inside the top 25 in 13 of them.
On the other hand, Brandt Snedeker has recorded just four top 25s in his last 15 starts played on fast greens. That’s well below what you’d expect from him, but his salary this week makes it hard to ignore him completely (assuming you make 10 or more lineups).
GOLFERS REMAINING: 16
Driver-Heavy Courses
The last angle is a good one. Firestone CC is 7,400 yards despite being a par 70. That means a lot of long holes. As a result, golfers will be hitting their driver a lot.
Looking at all courses where the field averages over 285 yards off the tee, we can find some specialists that prefer these type of layouts.
We can say goodbye to seven golfers at this stage since their driver-heavy performance is lower than their baseline:
Scott Piercy
J.B. Holmes
Marc Leishman
Kevin Chappell
Patrick Reed
Zach Johnson
.
Nothing fade-worthy here. All of them have a sprinkle of success on driver-heavy courses, they are just less consistent if you compare it to their baseline output.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 3
The Specialists
Billy Hurley III
Justin Rose
David Lingmerth
Our specialist this week is Billy Hurley III.
Billy Hurley the Third!? Last week his form was the only thing holding him back from specialist status but that changed after winning last week’s Quicken Loans to produce the feel-good story of the year.
I rarely like to take golfers the week after they win, especially their maiden win. However, the expectations for BH3 remain extremely low (priced at $6,600 this week). There is a huge chance for a winner’s hangover this week, but there is also the chance he carries over that momentum and plays his way into contention again. This is probably the least confident I’ve been in an overall specialist, but the numbers say this horse could fit the course for a second straight week.
With only 61 golfers in the field, it’s not a big surprise to see just three specialists this week.
Justin Rose missed the cut at Oakmont after taking a few weeks off with a back injury. Was the missed cut due to injury or just poor play? We’ll never know. If he’s fully healthy, he could add to his long list of top 5s here at Firestone CC.
David Lingmerth tweeted about his love for the course today and posted a T6 last year in his debut. Both good signs for a $7,600 golfer.
The Anti-Specialists
The golfers below are negative in both angles this week. Basically the exact opposite of our specialists.
Jason Dufner
Jason Day
Davis Love III
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Jones
Dustin Johnson
William McGirt
Charley Hoffman
Russell Knox
Talk about major firepower! Jason Day and Dustin Johnson are both on the list of suggested fades. It makes sense when you look at their track records at Firestone CC, but it’s scary to fade them considering the current form their both in. I don’t have the willpower to completely fade them, but the numbers say it’s not a bad idea and I will have very little shares (especially when you compare to the contest averages since they will both be very popular).
Jason Dufner is another interesting case. He has the local factor on his side, but all the numbers tell us to stay far away. Will local knowledge or course fit win out this week? Local knowledge has won out in the past (two top 10s in three starts). Despite the local angle, I can’t ignore these specialist angles and will be limiting my exposure, for sure.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle. The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2013-14), Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained.
| Golfer | DK | SG:Total | Form | Bentgrass | Driver-Heavy | Fast Greens | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Hurley III | $6,600 | 0.108 | 0.888 | 0.322 | 0.738 | 0.401 | 0.487 |
| Smylie Kaufman | $6,900 | 0.445 | -0.415 | 0 | 0.972 | 0 | 0.324 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,000 | 1.142 | 0.373 | 0.368 | 0.565 | -0.283 | 0.217 |
| Justin Rose | $10,200 | 1.615 | 1.778 | 0.243 | 0.004 | 0.198 | 0.148 |
| David Lingmerth | $7,600 | 0.104 | 1.235 | 0.051 | 0.022 | 0.225 | 0.099 |
| Marc Leishman | $8,100 | 0.803 | 0.901 | 0.264 | -0.198 | 0.217 | 0.094 |
| Danny Lee | $7,400 | 0.507 | 0.974 | 0.175 | 0.279 | -0.215 | 0.08 |
| Scott Piercy | $7,100 | 0.313 | 0.394 | 0.152 | -0.103 | 0.111 | 0.053 |
| Shane Lowry | $8,700 | 0.943 | 1.495 | -0.448 | 0.606 | 0 | 0.053 |
| Justin Thomas | $8,000 | 0.747 | 0.528 | -0.216 | 0.051 | 0.226 | 0.02 |
| J.B. Holmes | $7,700 | 0.701 | 0.962 | 0.026 | -0.178 | 0.205 | 0.018 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,300 | 1.289 | 0.777 | -0.159 | -0.192 | 0.403 | 0.018 |
| Bubba Watson | $10,100 | 1.506 | 0.317 | -0.07 | 0.335 | -0.227 | 0.012 |
| Paul Casey | $7,800 | 0.998 | 0.194 | -0.081 | -0.087 | 0.187 | 0.006 |
| Jim Furyk | $9,500 | 1.626 | 0.894 | 0.161 | -0.118 | -0.033 | 0.003 |
| Brooks Koepka | $9,900 | 1.171 | 2.116 | -0.219 | 0.369 | -0.141 | 0.003 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,200 | 0.749 | 0.137 | 0.127 | 0.632 | -0.756 | 0.001 |
| Nathan Holman | $5,800 | -1.33 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Fraser | $6,000 | -0.686 | 0.141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michio Matsumura | $5,600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Young-han Song | $5,600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Johnston | $6,300 | 0.087 | 0.841 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.T. Kim | $6,200 | 0.16 | 0.428 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | $6,700 | 0.404 | 0.877 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Johnson | $8,300 | 0.928 | 0.98 | 0.064 | -0.384 | 0.275 | -0.015 |
| George Coetzee | $6,000 | -0.112 | -0.676 | -0.045 | 0 | 0 | -0.015 |
| Daniel Berger | $8,200 | 0.77 | 1.587 | -0.053 | 0.243 | -0.242 | -0.017 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,000 | 0.489 | 0.112 | 0.082 | -0.176 | 0 | -0.031 |
| Kevin Chappell | $7,400 | 0.662 | 0.992 | 0.008 | -0.241 | 0.123 | -0.037 |
| Harris English | $7,300 | 0.788 | 1.305 | -0.395 | 0.4 | -0.159 | -0.051 |
| Byeong Hun An | $7,200 | 0.472 | 0.687 | -0.159 | 0 | 0 | -0.053 |
| Patrick Reed | $9,100 | 0.817 | 1.274 | 0.034 | -0.357 | 0.102 | -0.073 |
| Chris Kirk | $7,000 | 0.585 | 0.939 | -0.058 | 0.104 | -0.277 | -0.077 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $8,600 | 0.867 | 1.094 | -0.063 | 0.039 | -0.221 | -0.082 |
| Bill Haas | $7,900 | 0.871 | 0.645 | -0.008 | -0.389 | 0.135 | -0.087 |
| Matt Kuchar | $9,800 | 1.364 | 1.949 | 0.033 | -0.182 | -0.182 | -0.11 |
| Adam Scott | $10,500 | 1.457 | 1.292 | -0.269 | -0.129 | 0.032 | -0.122 |
| Russell Knox | $7,500 | 0.838 | 0.988 | -0.153 | -0.053 | -0.169 | -0.125 |
| Steven Bowditch | $5,700 | -0.541 | -2.131 | 0.259 | -0.46 | -0.201 | -0.134 |
| Charley Hoffman | $7,100 | 0.721 | 1.069 | -0.057 | -0.339 | -0.031 | -0.142 |
| William McGirt | $6,800 | 0.471 | 0.939 | -0.042 | -0.075 | -0.312 | -0.143 |
| James Hahn | $6,400 | -0.007 | 0.708 | -0.179 | 0.007 | -0.272 | -0.148 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,600 | 1.796 | 2.618 | -0.063 | -0.342 | -0.059 | -0.155 |
| Jim Herman | $5,800 | 0.005 | -1.027 | -0.087 | 0.083 | -0.476 | -0.16 |
| Matt Jones | $6,500 | 0.248 | -0.396 | -0.228 | -0.138 | -0.131 | -0.166 |
| Kevin Na | $7,300 | 1.002 | 0.221 | -0.386 | -0.279 | 0.114 | -0.184 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $8,400 | 0.705 | 0.527 | -0.095 | -0.152 | -0.346 | -0.198 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $6,600 | 0.04 | 0.257 | 0.194 | -0.184 | -0.64 | -0.21 |
| Davis Love III | $5,700 | -0.454 | -3.27 | -0.001 | -0.555 | -0.081 | -0.212 |
| Phil Mickelson | $8,900 | 1.128 | 1.518 | -0.248 | 0.02 | -0.427 | -0.218 |
| Kevin Kisner | $6,800 | 0.559 | 0.167 | 0.048 | -0.354 | -0.351 | -0.219 |
| Jason Day | $12,100 | 1.962 | 2.79 | -0.108 | -0.313 | -0.258 | -0.227 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,300 | 1.732 | 1.479 | 0.084 | -0.681 | -0.136 | -0.244 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $5,900 | 0.432 | -0.024 | -0.585 | 0 | -0.148 | -0.245 |
| Branden Grace | $9,700 | 0.68 | 1.719 | -0.318 | 0 | -0.424 | -0.247 |
| Jimmy Walker | $6,900 | 1.046 | -0.938 | -0.18 | 0.365 | -1.116 | -0.31 |
| Fabian Gomez | $6,100 | -0.136 | -0.411 | -0.934 | 0.312 | -0.409 | -0.344 |
| Brian Stuard | $5,900 | 0.054 | -1.208 | -0.332 | 0.07 | -0.858 | -0.373 |
| Jason Dufner | $8,500 | 0.601 | 1.573 | -0.258 | -0.911 | -0.773 | -0.647 |