Searching for a Specialist: WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

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The PGA TOUR returns to the States as we search for a specialist at Firestone Country Club.

Grading results from last week, we got both specialists through the cut, but didn’t find much success after that. I should have added in a Vertigo column, apparently. Overall, I would grade it a C or C+ for the week.

Looking at this week’s course, we are going to look at Performance when Fairways are Hard-to-Hit, Strong Field Events, Bentgrass Greens, Long Courses, Performance in the Summer, No-Cut Events, and Hard Courses in general.

Obviously that is a lot of angles we are looking at, so if any golfers come out unscathed, they truly are special.

Here we go …

Hard-to-Hit Fairways

Firestone Country Club has some narrow driving lanes and lots of the fairways are heavily sloped.

That combination makes it very hard to land your ball between the pipes.

Let’s see who improves their game when fairways are tough to hit like this…

The Top 10 Hard Fairway Specialists are:

Bubba Watson (2.914 sg:hard fairways vs. 2.003 sg:total)
Jon Rahm (2.94 sg:hard fairways vs. 2.214 sg:total)
Branden Grace (2.008 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.483 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (3.534 sg:hard fairways vs. 3.052 sg:total)
Billy Horschel (1.743 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.321 sg:total)
Gary Woodland (1.886 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.522 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (2.07 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.708 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.09 sg:hard fairways vs. 0.753 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.748 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.434 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (2.924 sg:hard fairways vs. 2.616 sg:total)

A common trend on the list above is DISTANCE. On top of that, all of these guys are very aggressive in their approach off the tee and very confident with the big stick in hand.

Strong Field Events

WGC events don’t have the deepest fields, but you really have to bring your best stuff to contend since most of the top 50 OWGR are in attendance.

The 10 Strong Field Specialists:

Thorbjorn Olesen (0.774 sg:strong vs. 0.182 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.091 sg:strong vs. 0.708 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.642 sg:strong vs. 1.333 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.512 sg:strong vs. 1.262 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.391 sg:strong vs. 2.173 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (1.859 sg:strong vs. 1.648 sg:total)
Adam Scott (2.577 sg:strong vs. 2.388 sg:total)
Andres Romero (0.449 sg:strong vs. 0.27 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (1.269 sg:strong vs. 1.097 sg:total)
Danny Willett (1.242 sg:strong vs. 1.07 sg:total)

These guys like to play up to their competition. Three of them have won majors, so there is no backing down.

A lot of this is mental and also preparation plays a big part. If you get inside your own head and worry about a slow start, you’re going to have a bad time. It’s important to stick to the game plan and take it hole-by-hole. Oosty and Scott are two of the best when it comes to grinding after slow starts. That really pays off in strong field events where the courses are usually a bit tougher.

Bentgrass Greens

The greens at Firestone CC are a mix of bentgrass and poa. Running the correlations, it doesn’t play all that similar to pure poa annua greens like we see out on the West Coast, which tells me bentgrass is likely the dominant strand here on a year-to-year basis.

The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists are:

Xander Schauffele (2.323 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.131 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (0.888 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.182 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.67 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.262 sg:total)
Scott Hend (0.89 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.507 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.554 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.173 sg:total)
Andres Romero (0.646 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.27 sg:total)
Alex Noren (1.557 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.208 sg:total)
Russell Henley (1.568 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.244 sg:total)
Rod Pampling (0.498 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.234 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (0.94 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.708 sg:total)

It’s still early for guys like Xander who has played just 30 or so rounds on bentgrass greens. However, he has shown a strong liking to bentgrass early in his career.

Someone like Rickie Fowler does not have that same sample size concerns. He have over 150 rounds on bentgrass since 2014, and has gained more total strokes on bentgrass than anyone in the field not named Jordan Spieth.

Long Courses

Firestone Country Club is 7,400 yards, which is really long, especially for a par 70 layout.

When long courses roll around, it puts a big emphasis on long-iron play. Let’s see who shines here.

The Top 10 Long Course Specialists:

Danny Willett (1.779 sg:long vs. 1.07 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (2.108 sg:long vs. 1.606 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.934 sg:long vs. 1.434 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.397 sg:long vs. 1.943 sg:total)
Harold Varner III (1.19 sg:long vs. 0.781 sg:total)
Bernd Wiesberger (1.623 sg:long vs. 1.234 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (1.816 sg:long vs. 1.451 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.585 sg:long vs. 1.262 sg:total)
Russell Henley (1.565 sg:long vs. 1.244 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (1.96 sg:long vs. 1.708 sg:total)

Matthew Fitzpatrick is the only name from the list above that doesn’t crush it off the tee. Obviously, that is a big edge when it comes to battling a long course.

On the flip side, a plodder like Jason Dufner is nearly a shot worse per round when taking on courses over 7,400 yards. On the flip side he is from Ohio, so he brings local knowledge. A couple points to ponder this week.

Performance in the Summer

When we leave Cali and Florida, there are certain golfers that start to lick their lips.

Some golfers just like it a little warmer when they play. Some prefer the bentgrass greens. Whatever it is, let’s see who shines in the summer.

The Top 10 Summer Specialists:

Si Woo Kim (1.627 sg:summer vs. 0.809 sg:total)
Andres Romero (0.913 sg:summer vs. 0.27 sg:total)
Henrik Stenson (3.049 sg:summer vs. 2.514 sg:total)
Jason Day (3.151 sg:summer vs. 2.691 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (1.966 sg:summer vs. 1.515 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.579 sg:summer vs. 2.173 sg:total)
Bryson DeChambeau (1.242 sg:summer vs. 0.841 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.066 sg:summer vs. 0.753 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (2.013 sg:summer vs. 1.708 sg:total)
Zach Johnson (1.956 sg:summer vs. 1.655 sg:total)

Guys like Si Woo Kim and Bryson DeChambeau should have the small(ish) sample size alert next to their name above. They both have less than 50 summer rounds, so a few monster weeks can influence their stats, but we should give it another summer before truly considering them summer specialists.

No-Cut Events

There is no cut sweat this week as all 76 golfers are guaranteed four rounds, unless they withdraw.

Some golfers like the (relatively) stress-free nature of not having to grind out a cut.

Others get a boost on these type of events because they can take it reallllly low. Someone like Bill Haas has to be steady for all four rounds, but guys like Justin Thomas can bounce back from a 3-over round with a 65 the next day.

The Top 10 No-Cut Specialists are:

Ross Fisher (2.976 sg:no-cut vs. 1.675 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (2.606 sg:no-cut vs. 1.729 sg:total)
Bernd Wiesberger (1.824 sg:no-cut vs. 1.234 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (2.182 sg:no-cut vs. 1.616 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.165 sg:no-cut vs. 2.616 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (2.115 sg:no-cut vs. 1.632 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.483 sg:no-cut vs. 2.035 sg:total)
Ryan Moore (1.919 sg:no-cut vs. 1.506 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (2.384 sg:no-cut vs. 2.003 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.629 sg:no-cut vs. 1.333 sg:total)

From a sample-size perspective, nobody has gained more strokes over the field in no-cut events (since 2014) than Bubba Watson. He is a very aggressive player, so he can fire at flagsticks without fear of missing the cut.

On the flip side, Satoshi Kodaira and Jeunghun Wang are the only two golfers in the field who have lost strokes to the field in no-cut events. That is based on adjusted strokes gained. Given the strong fields that usually assemble for no-cut events, it takes some pretty horrendous play to grade out negatively.

Hard Courses

We already looked at tough-to-hit fairway stats, but Firestone CC is just a challenging venue, overall.

Adding another layer to our lasagna will let us know who can handle the toughest of scoring conditions.

The Top 10 Hard Course Specialists are:

Brooks Koepka (2.475 sg:hard vs. 1.943 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (1.631 sg:hard vs. 1.131 sg:total)
Danny Willett (1.554 sg:hard vs. 1.07 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.187 sg:hard vs. 0.708 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (3.061 sg:hard vs. 2.634 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.034 sg:hard vs. 2.616 sg:total)
Lee Westwood (1.853 sg:hard vs. 1.437 sg:total)
Harold Varner III (1.158 sg:hard vs. 0.781 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (1.991 sg:hard vs. 1.616 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (2.005 sg:hard vs. 1.648 sg:total)

Plenty of names on the list above that are regular staples when it comes to major championship leaderboards.

Firestone attracts the same kind of leaderboard, as it challenges all facets of the game, similar to a major.

Wesley Bryan has done most of his damage on the PGA TOUR in average or easier-than-average scoring conditions. I will take the wait-and-see approach before investing in him on a tough track like Firestone.

The Specialist

Paul Casey
Matt Kuchar

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Our specialist this week is Paul Casey!

The Englishman arrives with top 15s in five of his last seven starts, so he’s playing good golf. Growing up in England, it makes sense he would play better on bentgrass putting surfaces, no grain to deal with.

At this event he has seven top 20s in 12 starts here. I like him to add an eighth to his resume by week’s end.

The second specialist is Matt Kuchar, who didn’t live up to the hype last week. He suffered through dizziness before the cut, but looked like regular Kuchar over the weekend. Unfortunately, Glen Abbey was playing as easy as it ever has, meaning it was too little too late for Kuchar to make a charge.

This layout looks like another great fit for Kuch, as he already owns three top 10s in eight tries here.

The Anti-Specialists

The specialists above are positive in all seven angles, but which golfers are the opposite and show a poor course fit?

Jason Dufner

It’s really tough to be negative in ALL SEVEN angles, but Dufner managed to pull it off. While the course doesn’t fit his profile, he does have ties to Ohio, offsetting a bit of his poor course fit. For that reason, I am not recommending a full fade, but I wouldn’t fall in love with Duff Daddy, either.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),

Form looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro).

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG:Total Form Bent Hard Hard FW Strong Long No Cut Summer Specialist Rating
Danny Willett $6,200 $4,800 $11,700 1.07 -9.047 0.138 0.483 0 0.172 0.709 0.218 0.153 0.268
Bubba Watson $7,700 $5,900 $14,300 2.003 34.37 -0.041 0.315 0.911 0.068 -0.001 0.381 -0.013 0.231
Xander Schauffele $7,300 $5,500 $13,100 1.131 75.47 1.192 0.5 -0.109 0 0 0 0 0.226
Paul Casey $9,000 $7,600 $15,900 2.035 49.524 0.14 0.097 0.158 0.071 0.186 0.448 0.265 0.195
Charl Schwartzel $7,200 $6,400 $14,400 1.708 35.107 0.007 0.306 0.362 -0.065 0.252 0.152 0.305 0.188
Thorbjorn Olesen $7,100 $4,700 $12,400 0.182 45.696 0.706 0 0 0.592 0 0 0 0.185
Kyle Stanley $6,700 $5,000 $12,700 0.708 45.166 0.231 0.479 0.029 0.383 -0.004 0 0.131 0.178
Dustin Johnson $11,800 $9,700 $18,400 2.616 14.454 -0.075 0.418 0.308 0.12 -0.108 0.549 -0.049 0.166
Rickie Fowler $10,600 $9,000 $17,100 2.173 72.398 0.38 0.271 -0.413 0.218 0.023 0.241 0.406 0.161
Andres Romero $6,400 $4,500 $11,400 0.27 1.24 0.377 0.335 -0.295 0.18 -0.155 0 0.643 0.155
Daniel Berger $8,300 $6,900 $15,400 1.632 47.951 0.164 0.118 0.188 0.143 0.165 0.483 -0.197 0.152
Rory Mcilroy $11,400 $9,600 $18,500 3.052 21.697 0.131 -0.136 0.482 -0.002 0.053 0.246 0.272 0.149
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,000 $6,500 $12,900 1.262 40.649 0.409 0.023 0 0.25 0.324 0 0 0.144
Matt Kuchar $9,300 $8,000 $16,000 2.128 82.927 0.168 0.325 0.233 0.168 0.013 0.01 0.024 0.134
Kevin Chappell $7,500 $5,700 $14,600 1.333 37.412 0.077 -0.041 -0.152 0.308 0.182 0.295 0.228 0.128
Lee Westwood $7,700 $6,300 $13,900 1.437 34.138 -0.012 0.416 0.034 0.139 -0.065 0.156 0.204 0.125
Branden Grace $8,600 $7,300 $15,500 1.483 42.024 -0.113 0.345 0.525 0.038 -0.272 0.001 0.298 0.117
Emiliano Grillo $6,900 $5,100 $12,400 1.515 16.281 0.188 -0.055 -0.191 0.115 0.11 0.107 0.451 0.104
Harold Varner III $6,500 $4,500 $11,600 0.781 15.721 -0.073 0.376 -0.131 0.162 0.408 0 -0.054 0.098
Billy Horschel $6,800 $4,700 $12,500 1.321 13.591 -0.069 0.129 0.422 -0.081 0.018 0.159 0.111 0.098
Brooks Koepka $11,100 $8,600 $17,100 1.943 55.07 0.072 0.532 -0.032 -0.046 0.455 -0.218 -0.087 0.097
J.B. Holmes $7,600 $6,400 $13,300 1.451 39.428 0.047 0.048 0.174 0.097 0.365 0.05 -0.106 0.096
Justin Thomas $8,200 $7,400 $15,300 1.729 30.933 -0.118 -0.103 -0.007 0.008 0.051 0.877 -0.079 0.09
Henrik Stenson $9,500 $8,300 $16,400 2.514 56.315 0.072 0.136 -0.012 0.015 -0.125 -0.029 0.535 0.084
Adam Scott $8,800 $8,200 $16,200 2.388 37.212 -0.138 0.167 0.171 0.19 0.015 0.105 0.048 0.08
Ross Fisher $7,200 $5,400 $12,900 1.675 53.732 -0.085 -0.686 0 0.002 0 1.301 0 0.076
Bernd Wiesberger $7,000 $5,600 $12,800 1.234 48.9 0.045 -0.1 0 -0.062 0.389 0.59 -0.398 0.066
Charley Hoffman $7,400 $6,300 $14,500 1.434 84.493 0.024 0.321 0.315 -0.005 0.5 -0.454 -0.292 0.058
Jason Day $9,400 $8,800 $16,300 2.691 14.125 0.076 -0.103 0.008 0.068 -0.084 -0.035 0.46 0.056
Phil Mickelson $7,900 $6,600 $14,800 1.971 38.325 -0.052 0.263 0.195 -0.072 0.221 -0.083 -0.206 0.038
Louis Oosthuizen $7,800 $6,700 $14,400 1.648 6.626 -0.156 0.357 -0.094 0.211 0.127 -0.1 -0.082 0.038
Scott Hend $6,600 $4,500 $11,400 0.507 33.203 0.383 0 0 -0.146 0 0.018 0 0.036
Zach Johnson $8,000 $6,300 $14,600 1.655 37.782 0.122 -0.047 -0.078 0.096 -0.075 -0.094 0.301 0.032
Thomas Pieters $7,300 $6,600 $14,600 1.698 24.834 0.164 0 0 0.031 0 0 0 0.028
Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,900 $7,200 $14,800 1.616 60.154 -0.191 0.375 0 -0.008 -0.313 0.566 -0.244 0.026
Jimmy Walker $6,500 $6,000 $12,500 1.606 14.933 -0.135 0.112 0.201 -0.193 0.502 -0.169 -0.173 0.02
Ryan Moore $6,600 $5,100 $12,400 1.506 -11.622 -0.192 0.236 0.062 -0.3 -0.084 0.413 -0.028 0.015
Alex Noren $8,100 $7,700 $15,200 1.208 52.163 0.349 -0.192 0 -0.052 0 0 0 0.015
Andy Sullivan $7,000 $5,600 $12,800 1.193 53.764 -0.117 0.157 0 -0.023 0 0 0 0.002
Shaun Norris $6,000 $4,500 $10,500 0.698 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Satoshi Kodaira $6,000 $4,500 $11,200 -0.374 4.204 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sam Brazel $6,000 $4,500 $10,600 0.241 -7.913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Renato Paratore $6,600 $4,500 $11,400 -0.71 19.81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Paul Lawrie $6,000 $4,500 $10,600 0.056 -5.712 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jeunghun Wang $6,100 $4,500 $10,800 -0.609 -9.985 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fabrizio Zanotti $6,100 $4,500 $11,300 0.936 3.813 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Justin Rose $9,900 $7,900 $16,300 2.399 32.043 0.117 -0.15 -0.033 -0.023 0.188 -0.199 0.085 -0.002
Thongchai Jaidee $6,300 $4,600 $11,400 0.482 4.288 0.154 -0.059 0 -0.005 -0.584 0.27 0.195 -0.004
Rod Pampling $6,100 $4,500 $10,600 0.234 -3.207 0.264 0.072 -0.072 -0.359 0.207 0 -0.145 -0.005
Jon Rahm $9,700 $9,200 $16,500 2.214 54.565 -0.036 -0.172 0.726 -0.275 0 0 -0.314 -0.01
Hudson Swafford $6,300 $4,500 $11,900 0.782 10.002 0.103 -0.068 -0.263 -0.084 0.06 0 0.147 -0.015
Jhonattan Vegas $6,700 $5,200 $12,700 0.753 -4.524 -0.051 -0.743 0.337 0.148 0.211 -0.329 0.313 -0.016
Gary Woodland $7,500 $5,900 $14,400 1.522 28.311 -0.154 -0.28 0.364 -0.136 0.116 -0.117 0.025 -0.026
Sergio Garcia $9,200 $8,800 $16,000 2.461 48.91 0.015 0.288 -0.154 0.098 -0.319 0.028 -0.144 -0.027
Brian Harman $7,400 $5,300 $13,300 1.157 50.512 0.211 0.057 -0.082 0.027 -0.32 -0.254 0.142 -0.031
Brendan Steele $6,700 $4,900 $12,900 1.493 19.083 -0.519 0.182 0.244 -0.035 0.079 0.233 -0.517 -0.048
Tommy Fleetwood $8,400 $7,400 $15,400 1.29 66.659 -0.296 -0.175 0 0.029 0 0.098 0 -0.049
Russell Henley $7,100 $5,200 $13,900 1.244 28.503 0.323 -0.211 -0.321 -0.062 0.321 -0.428 0.011 -0.052
Hideto Tanihara $6,500 $5,000 $12,100 0.535 10.001 0 0 0 -0.405 0 0 0 -0.058
Jordan Spieth $12,000 $9,900 $19,000 2.634 79.851 0.061 0.427 -0.518 -0.179 0.194 -0.201 -0.215 -0.062
Bill Haas $6,900 $5,800 $12,900 1.713 60.526 0.059 0.043 -0.174 -0.041 -0.087 -0.221 -0.02 -0.063
Si Woo Kim $6,200 $5,200 $12,400 0.809 7.348 -0.055 0.146 -0.25 -0.28 -0.221 -0.623 0.818 -0.066
Marc Leishman $8,000 $6,500 $15,400 1.629 67.771 0.096 -0.271 0.176 0.027 -0.068 -0.227 -0.218 -0.069
Patrick Reed $7,800 $7,000 $14,400 1.661 56.348 0.108 0.023 -0.481 -0.151 0.117 -0.239 0.125 -0.071
Bryson DeChambeau $6,800 $4,500 $12,600 0.841 34.855 0.144 0.227 -1.02 -0.158 -0.163 0 0.402 -0.081
Kevin Kisner $7,100 $5,800 $13,300 1.346 45.087 -0.057 -0.177 0.041 -0.061 -0.197 -0.168 0.036 -0.083
Tyrrell Hatton $6,900 $6,100 $12,300 1.754 2.035 -0.562 0 0 -0.101 0 0 0 -0.095
Pat Perez $6,100 $4,700 $12,300 1.144 5.23 -0.347 0.292 -0.046 -0.084 0.168 -0.116 -0.694 -0.118
Chris Wood $7,600 $6,000 $13,300 1.302 30.321 -0.243 0.178 0 -0.037 -0.498 -0.318 0 -0.131
Wesley Bryan $6,400 $4,600 $12,300 0.925 0.804 -0.173 -1.053 0.146 0 0 0 0 -0.154
Russell Knox $6,200 $4,900 $11,800 1.446 11.88 0.044 -0.091 -0.483 0.048 -0.568 -0.039 -0.1 -0.17
Hideki Matsuyama $10,200 $8,700 $16,800 2.251 46.863 0.006 -0.486 -0.319 -0.048 -0.064 -0.038 -0.381 -0.19
Adam Hadwin $6,400 $4,800 $12,000 1.097 -7.664 -0.165 -0.475 -0.25 0.172 -0.356 0 -0.27 -0.192
Francesco Molinari $6,800 $5,900 $13,300 1.776 32.466 -0.126 -0.396 -0.61 0.135 -0.243 0.06 -0.297 -0.211
Jason Dufner $7,200 $6,200 $14,400 1.494 30.606 -0.138 -0.008 -0.219 -0.13 -0.935 -0.308 -0.483 -0.317
Mackenzie Hughes $6,300 $4,500 $11,200 0.902 24.904 -0.234 -0.881 -0.738 -0.74 0 0 0 -0.37

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.